Tigers Base Running Improving

In an earlier post, I used the Baseball Prospectus base running statistics to show that the Tigers were 28th out of 30 teams in base running through May.  At that time, base running had cost the Tigers about four runs (-3.9) compared to an average team.  With the emergence of speedy outfielder Quintin Berry near the top of the lineup and a somewhat more aggressive approach overall in recent games, I wanted to take another look at base running today.

To review, Baseball Prospectus tracks several different types of base running advancement:

• GAR (Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs) - Contribution of advancement on ground outs.

• SBR (Equivalent Stolen Base Runs) - contribution of stolen bases including runs subtracted for caught stealings and pickoffs.

• AAR (Equivalent Air Advancement Runs) - Contribution of base runners advancing on fly outs

• HAR (Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs) - contribution of runners taking the extra base on a hit: first to third on a single, second to home on a single, first to home on a double.

• OAR (Equivalent Other Advancement Runs) - contribution of other base running advancements - passed balls, wild pitches and balks (evidence shows that those events are not entirely randomly and are influenced by base runners to an extent).

• BRR (Equivalent Base Running Runs)- the sum of the five above statistics above or total base running contribution.

The Table below shows that the Tigers have improved in all facets of base running since the beginning of June.  For example, the run contribution from taking extra bases on hits went from -2.64 runs below average in April/May to 0.45 runs above average in June/July.  For the season, they are at -2.19 in that category. 

Table 1: Base Running Runs Above Average

Advancement	Through May	June 1 – July 2	Total
GAR	-1.02	+0.89	-0.13
SBR	+0.92	+0.11	+1.03
AAR	-0.34	+1.61	+1.27
HAR	-2.64	+0.45	-2.19
OAR	-0.84	+0.14	-0.70
BRR	-3.92	+3.22	-0.70

 Overall, Detroit is now at -0.7 base running runs as of last night's game, which moves them up to 17th in baseball.  This is an improvement of 3.2 runs from April/May to June/July.  That may not sound like a huge huge number of runs, but it is the third highest jump of any team behind only the Phillies (7.2 runs) and Braves (4.2 runs).

It's hard to know exactly who is doing it for the Tigers since monthly splits are not available.  I was only able to do splits for teams because I had saved the April/May totals in my previous post.  However, it probably comes to no big surprise that the Tigers base running has improved if you are watching the games.  The leaders for the season are:

Jackson 2.2
Berry 2.1
Dirks 1.5
Santiago 1.0
Kelly 1.0

I don't want to overstate the importance of base running.  The variation in team runs created by base running is small in comparison to that created by hitting.  In fact, there is a difference of about 18 base running runs between the best (Atlanta 9.6) and worse (Kansas City -8.2) teams in baseball.  On the other hand the best hitting team has about 110 more batting runs than the worst hitting team.  Still, every little thing a team can do to score more runs is useful.  Thus, the Tigers recent base running improvement is encouraging.

Quintin Berry Already Among AL Base Running Leaders

Yesterday, I looked at team base running showing that the Tigers rank 28th in baseball according to the Baseball Prospectus base running data.  Today, I'll look at the one new Tiger who is trying to do something about it.  Speedy outfielder Quintin Berry is making his presence felt atop the the Tigers line-up hitting .362 with a .423 on-base percentage since replacing the injured Austin Jackson in center field. 

Berry is taking advantage of his high on-base rate with his base running stealing six bases without being caught stealing and scoring 11 runs in 11 games.  He was picked off in yesterday's game but even that was a questionable call by the umpire.  The Baseball Prospectus base running data show that Berry is doing more with his base running than stealing bases.  As seen in the earlier post, these data include the following:

• GAR (Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs) - Contribution of advancement on ground outs.

• SBR (Equivalent Stolen Base Runs) - contribution of stolen bases including runs subtracted for caught stealings and pickoffs.

• AAR (Equivalent Air Advancement Runs) - Contribution of base runners advancing on fly outs

• HAR (Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs) - contribution of runners taking the extra base on a hit: first to third on a single, second to home on a single, first to home on a double.

• OAR (Equivalent Other Advancement Runs) - contribution of other base running advancements - passed balls, wild pitches and balks (evidence shows that those events are not entirely randomly and are influenced by base runners to an extent).

• BRR (Equivalent Base Running Runs)- the sum of the five above statistics above or total base running contribution.

Note that players are penalized for making outs and also for not advancing when the average base runner would have been expected to do so.

The numbers for Berry are shown below:

GAR = +1.01 runs above average advancing on ground outs
SBR = +0.93 on base stealing
AAR = +0.08 on fly ball outs
HAR = +0.47 taking the extra base on hits
OAR =0.00 on other events
BRR = 2.49 total base running runs above average

These numbers tell us us that Jackson has been particularly good at advancing on ground ball outs and taking the extra base on hits as well as base stealing.  The 2.49 BRR tells us that Berry has added an estimated 2 to 3 runs to the Tigers offense compared to the average player with the same opportunities.  That may not sound like a lot, but it's actually a pretty impressive total for an 11-game stint.  In fact, Table 1 below shows that Berry is already fourth in the American League in BRR entering Sunday's game versus the Yankees.


Table 1: American League Base Running Runs Leaders

Player	BRR
De Aza, Chi	3.2
KIpnis, Cle	3.2
Andrus, Tex	2.5
Berry, Det	2.5
Aviles, Bos	2.4
Joyce, TB	2.3
Lawrie, Tor	2.2
Suzuki, Sea	2.1
Brantley, Cle	2.0
Ackley, Sea	2.0
Lillibridge, Chi	2.0

Table 2 shows what other Tigers have done on the bases according to BRR.  Other good base runners include Jackson (1.7 BRR) and Andy Dirks (1.5).  The Tigers worst base runners so far have been Prince Fielder (-3.2) and Miguel Cabrera (-2.3).


Table 2: Base Running Runs for Detroit Tigers

Player	BRR
Berry	2.5
Jackson	1.7
Dirks	1.5
Boesch	0.7
Kelly	0.5
Laird	0.2
Santiago	0.1
Worth	-0.6
Peralta	-1.2
Avila	-1.3
Young	-1.5
Cabrera	-2.3
Fielder	-3.2

Regardless of the small sample size, it seems clear that Berry's base running prowess is legitimate.  The question is whether he can continue to get on base.  If he keeps up anything even close to his current pace, he will surely remain in the starting line-up after Jackson returns from the disabled list.  That would be a nice boost to a team that has a lot of trouble running the bases.

Tigers Lacking Team Speed

For most of baseball history, baserunning has been measured by stolen bases and caught stealing. Fans have insisted for a long time that there is more to baserunning than stealing bases and they are correct. For example, a good baserunner will go from first to third on a single or advance from second to third on a fly ball more often than a poor baserunner. Yet, those types of maneuvers where not tracked until recently.

With the development of play-by-play databases such as Retrosheet, it is now possible to measure baserunning beyond stolen bases.  The most advanced baserunning metric is Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EQBRR) found at at Baseball Prospectus.  Developed by former Baseball Prospectus writer and current MLB team statistician Dan Fox, EQBRR takes into account the following types of baserunner advancement:

(1) Ground outs (e.g. Runner is on first base with other bases unoccupied and less than two outs and then advances to second on a ground out)

(2) Air outs (e.g. Runner is on second base with third base unoccupied and less than two outs and then advances to third on a fly out)

(3) Stolen bases, caught stealing and pickoffs.

(4) Hits (Runner goes from first to third on a single, second to home on a single or first to home on a double)

(5) Other (passed balls, wild pitches, balks)

A complex algorithm takes all of the above into consideration in estimating the number of runs which a player contributed to his team above what you would expect from an average baserunner. For those who are interested in the details, the methodology can be found here, here and here.  .

The top baserunners in the Majors according to EQBRR from 2008-2010 are listed below:

Michael Bourn 29.9
Ian Kinsler 19.2
Ichiro Suzuki 18.1
Brett Gardner 16.9
Shane Victorino 16.6
Rajai Davis 16.3
Chone Figgins 15.8
Carl Crawford 15.8
Jacoby Ellsbury 14.1
Willy Taveras 13.7

Austin Jackson had an EQBRR of 6.9 in 2010 meaning that he contributed about seven runs with his base running beyond what you would expect from an average runner. This ranked him fifth in the American League and ninth in the Majors.

Beyond Jackson, the Tigers don't create a lot of runs with their baserunning. Last year, the rest of the team was 9 runs below average. Take away Johnny Damon (+3.7) and Gerald Laird (+1.0) and they were nearly 14 runs below average. They haven't done anything during the off-season to rectify that. Victor Martinez, their biggest acquisition of the winter, had an EqBRR of -4.9 from 2008-2010.

Most of next year's starters were below average from 2008-2010:

Austin Jackson 6.9
Scott Sizemore 0.9 (small sample)
Ryan Raburn 0.7
Will Rhymes -2.2 (small Sample)
Alex Avila -2.5
Calos Guillen -2.9
Victor Martinez -4.9
Miguel Cabrera -6.3
Magglio Ordonez -7.3
Brandon Inge -7.4
Jhonny Peralta -8.6

Baserunning is not nearly as important as hitting in run scoring, and I'm not overly concerned about the Tigers lack of speed. However, it's not something that can be ignored. Consider that there were an estimated 31 baserunning runs or three wins between the Rays (12.7) and Royals (-18.3) in 2010. The Tigers will probably be below average on the bases again in 2011 and will have to make up for it with their bats.