After being touted as the run-away favorite in the AL Central going into the season,the Tigers find themselves five games under .500 and six games out of first place in the second week of June. Fans have given lots of explanations why they have not met expectations - sub-par seasons from many regulars such as Brennan Boesch, Ryan Raburn and Delmon Young, inconsistent pitching from Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, a leaky bullpen, lack of clutch hitting, poor managing and injuries to Doug Fister, Austin Jackson and others. All of these could be valid reasons to some extent. However, I believe the disappointing record can be pared down to two primary problems: terrible fielding and lack of home run power.
The fielding
Defensively, the Tigers have allowed 4.6 runs per game which ranks 11th out of 14 AL teams. The first instinct is to blame the pitching, but they rank well on parts of the game that pitchers most control:
K/BB: 2.75 (3rd)
HR/9: 1.05 (6th)
FIP 3.82 (1st)
SIERA 3.52 (2nd)
The problem is that about 31% of balls in play have landed safely for hits (.313 BABIP) which is the highest in the AL. The average team allows hits on about 28% of balls in play. Some of that could be due to pitchers getting hit hard, but much of it appears to be due to poor fielding support.
The Runs Above Replacement (RAR) statistic at Baseball-Reference tries to measure how many runs pitchers have allowed after subtracting runs due to fielders not making plays. According to RAR, the Detroit pitching staff is 6th in the league in limiting runs with 74 RAR. This means their pitchers are 74 runs better than a replacement level pitching staff (AL average = 63 RAR).
Thus, much of the blame must go to the fielders. It has been difficult to watch the Tigers play defense this year and the fielding numbers reflect that. They are last in the AL in just about every fielding metric including:
Total Zone: -43 runs worse than average
DRS: -26
UZR: -24
If we take the average of these three numbers, we can estimate that the Tigers fielders have cost them 31 runs so far this year or about one run every two games. That's worth about three games lost already. If we extrapolate to 162 games, that would be 85 runs cost by the defense which translates to roughly 8 or 9 games lost. That's a lot of games and I don't think they can keep up that pace if they want to win the division.
Home runs
Offensively, the Tigers are ninth in the AL with with 4.3 runs scored per game. They are below the league average of 4.4 which is pretty disappointing for a team that is built around hitting. They are doing reasonably well at hitting for average (4th in the AL at .263) and getting on base (6th at .324). So, what's the problem?
Many insist that the lack of offense is due to not hitting in the clutch. At first glance, the numbers do not show that. Despite the often cited problem producing with the bases loaded, they are second in the league with a .289 batting batting average with runners in scoring position. They actually lead the junior circuit with a .286 batting average in high leverage situations. So, timely hitting does not appear to be the issue it has been made out to be.
The failure to score runs is explained largely by their low home run total, which was the last thing most of us worried about before the season. Their 59 home runs is only 8th the league. Moreover, what home runs they have hit have not produced a lot of runs. Only 20 of their round trippers have come with runners on base which is second lowest in the AL.
The lack of homers with runners on base is probably a fluke. After all, they are hitting for good average with runners on base and hitters can't just decide to save their homers for times when runners are on. This anomaly should fix itself. The bigger problem is the total number of homers hit whether men are on base or not. They are going to need more of them if they are going to make a run at the division title.
Showing posts with label Weekly summary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Weekly summary. Show all posts
Sunday, June 10, 2012
Friday, May 25, 2012
Week 7 Report: Tigers Offense Inefficient in May
After getting swept by the Indians this week, the Tigers have reached the low point of their campaign. They have gone 11-21 since the second week of the season and have fallen to third place, six games behind first-place Cleveland. If they do not get going pretty soon, the team which was supposed to run away with the division may find themselves double-digit games behind before summer officially begins.
The Tigers shortcomings this year have remained pretty much the same in recent weeks. The offense has been surprisingly sluggish scoring just 4.2 runs per game which is only tenth in the American Lerague. They are last in the league on almost every advanced fielding metric and their bullpen has been shaky.
The only bright spot has been a starting rotation which leads the league in strikeout/walk ratio, XFIP and SIERA. Unfortunately, this one strong point has been masked by the team's awful defense and inconsistent bullpen. The result is that they are in the bottom half of the league in overall run prevention.
I was going to write a post about how the fielding has helped to ruin the good work of the starters, but I'll save that for another time. Today, I want to address a different issue which many Detroit fans are talking about: the inability of the offense to score base runners. In the Cleveland series alone, the Tigers left 30 runners on base. You would think with all those base runners that the Tigers would have scored more than six runs.
The Cleveland series was just three games though and fans have been talking about the inefficiency of the Tigers offense for a while. Is this a real problem or is it one of those things that frustrated fans of losing teams just talk about? One way to investigate this is to compare the Tigers actual runs scored (R) to the Runs Created (RC).
The RC statistic (called wRC on FanGraphs) tells us how many runs a team should have scored based on their numbers of singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks and other offensive events including outs made. Table 1 below shows that most teams have a relatively small differential between runs and RC (R-RC). The Blue Jays have the largest gap with 215 runs scored versus 192 RC. The 23-point or 12% run differential is due largely to the Blue Jays .818 OPS with runners in scoring position (against only .718 overall).
What about the Tigers? They have 186 RC on the season. If they were not making the most of their hits, walks and extra base hits, you would expect them to have fewer runs than RC. Instead they have the same number of runs scored as RC. So, they have scored exactly as many runs as you would have expected given their offensive events.
Table 1: Runs Versus Runs Created for American League Teams
Let's take this analysis one step further by looking at monthly splits. In April, the Tigers scored 94 runs versus 85 RC. So, rather than wasting base runners, they actually scored nine more runs than they should have given their raw offensive performance. On the other hand, They have 92 runs scored in May versus 101 RC. Thus, they have scored nine fewer runs than expected this month.
The conclusion is that the fans perception of wasted base runners has been correct in May. The good news though is that they showed in April that they are capable of making the most of their opportunities. So, their trouble this month is probably a fluke that will soon correct itself.
Of course, inefficient offense and lack of timely hitting is not the only weakness this team need to correct. The bigger issue is that the simply aren't getting enough hits or extra base hits to produce runs regardless of timing.
The Tigers shortcomings this year have remained pretty much the same in recent weeks. The offense has been surprisingly sluggish scoring just 4.2 runs per game which is only tenth in the American Lerague. They are last in the league on almost every advanced fielding metric and their bullpen has been shaky.
The only bright spot has been a starting rotation which leads the league in strikeout/walk ratio, XFIP and SIERA. Unfortunately, this one strong point has been masked by the team's awful defense and inconsistent bullpen. The result is that they are in the bottom half of the league in overall run prevention.
I was going to write a post about how the fielding has helped to ruin the good work of the starters, but I'll save that for another time. Today, I want to address a different issue which many Detroit fans are talking about: the inability of the offense to score base runners. In the Cleveland series alone, the Tigers left 30 runners on base. You would think with all those base runners that the Tigers would have scored more than six runs.
The Cleveland series was just three games though and fans have been talking about the inefficiency of the Tigers offense for a while. Is this a real problem or is it one of those things that frustrated fans of losing teams just talk about? One way to investigate this is to compare the Tigers actual runs scored (R) to the Runs Created (RC).
The RC statistic (called wRC on FanGraphs) tells us how many runs a team should have scored based on their numbers of singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks and other offensive events including outs made. Table 1 below shows that most teams have a relatively small differential between runs and RC (R-RC). The Blue Jays have the largest gap with 215 runs scored versus 192 RC. The 23-point or 12% run differential is due largely to the Blue Jays .818 OPS with runners in scoring position (against only .718 overall).
What about the Tigers? They have 186 RC on the season. If they were not making the most of their hits, walks and extra base hits, you would expect them to have fewer runs than RC. Instead they have the same number of runs scored as RC. So, they have scored exactly as many runs as you would have expected given their offensive events.
Table 1: Runs Versus Runs Created for American League Teams
Team | R | RC | R-RC | % |
Texas | 242 | 245 | -3 | -1 |
Boston | 236 | 230 | 6 | 3 |
Toronto | 215 | 192 | 23 | 12 |
Baltimore | 208 | 206 | 2 | 1 |
New York | 200 | 220 | -20 | -9 |
Tampa Bay | 197 | 207 | -10 | -5 |
Chicago | 193 | 192 | 1 | 1 |
Cleveland | 190 | 200 | -10 | -5 |
Detroit | 186 | 186 | 0 | 0 |
Seattle | 176 | 156 | 20 | 13 |
Minnesota | 172 | 174 | -2 | -1 |
Kansas City | 171 | 180 | -9 | -5 |
Los Angeles | 165 | 167 | -2 | -1 |
Oakland | 153 | 142 | 11 | 8 |
Let's take this analysis one step further by looking at monthly splits. In April, the Tigers scored 94 runs versus 85 RC. So, rather than wasting base runners, they actually scored nine more runs than they should have given their raw offensive performance. On the other hand, They have 92 runs scored in May versus 101 RC. Thus, they have scored nine fewer runs than expected this month.
The conclusion is that the fans perception of wasted base runners has been correct in May. The good news though is that they showed in April that they are capable of making the most of their opportunities. So, their trouble this month is probably a fluke that will soon correct itself.
Of course, inefficient offense and lack of timely hitting is not the only weakness this team need to correct. The bigger issue is that the simply aren't getting enough hits or extra base hits to produce runs regardless of timing.
Thursday, May 10, 2012
Week 5 Report: Starters Give Tigers Hope
The Tigers had an other uninspiring week going 3-3 versus the White Sox at home and the Mariners in Seattle. As a result. they are now two games behind the Indians who are off to a good start again this year.
The Tigers continued to slump offensively scoring just 19 runs in six games and are now 8th in the American League with 4.1 runs per game on the season. They are also just 9th in the AL in OPS (.702) and wOBA (.308). On a positive note, Austin Jackson kept up his stellar all around play and is second in the league to slugging Josh Hamilton with 2.1 WAR.
The other good batting story is outfielder Andy Dirks who has emerged as the team leader in batting average (.339), slugging average (.607) and OPS (.969). In an effortt to jump start the offense, manager Jim Leyland moved Dirks to the second spot in the order replacing the sputtering Brennan Boesch versus right handers. Unfortunately, the upbeat news ends with Jackson and Dirks as the rest of the line-up has been a disappointment.
Defensively, the Tigers have allowed 4.2 runs per game, the ninth lowest total in the league. Much of the blame goes to the fielders who have cost the team an estimated 15 runs more than would be expected from an average group of fielders (taking the average or Total Zone, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating).
Any fan who is paying attention at all has also noticed that the Tigers bullpen is blowing games left and right. In fact, they are just 11-5 when they have the lead after seventh innings. That's a far cry from 2011 when they were 77-0 when leading after seven innings.
Despite the inferior fielding and the leaky bullpen, there is reason for optimism. Starting pitcher Doug Fister has returned from his side injury and the Tigers now have one of the most formidable starting rotations in the league. In fact, they had been doing quite well without Fister.
If you strip away the contributions (or lack thereof) of the the fielders and the bullpen and just focus on things that pitchers do on their own., the rotation is at or near the top of the league in most categories (and that includes games in which Adam Wilk started). For example, The Tigers starters lead the league in fewest walks per nine innings (2.3) and strikeout/walk ratio (3.4).
If we look at all the things that pitchers can control essentially on their own - walks, strikeouts, hit batsmen, home runs and batted ball types (ground ball percentage, line drive percentage, etc), we can get component ERAs. Component ERAs (found on FanGraphs) estimate what the starters ERA should be based on those events. The Tigers starters rank quite high on all of them:
FIP 3.48 (1st)
xFIP 3.51 (1st)
tERA 3.73 (3rd)
SIERA 3.50 (1st)
Taking the average of the four above measures, the Tigers estimated ERA based on things they can control should be 3.56.
Table 1 below shows how the Tigers individual starters are doing on the above measures. The first column is their actual ERA, columns two through five are component ERAs and the final column is the average of the four component ERAs.
Table 1: Component ERAs of Tigers starters as of May 9, 2012
The composite of the components (or any one component for that matter) is a better predictor of future ERA than actual ERA. So, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello should do a lot better from here on out. I think most fans would be pretty happy if their five starters ended up posting actual ERAs similar to the current composite ERAs by season's end.
The outlook for the starting staff is very encouraging indeed and it's the main reason I'm not too concerned about the team's early struggles. I'm confident the Tigers will hit better soon and the bullpen is usually the easiest element to upgrade with in-season trades. Once a starting staff goes bad due to ill health or poor performance. it is generally the hardest thing to repair. Thankfully, the Tigers rotation looks to be in great shape.
The Tigers continued to slump offensively scoring just 19 runs in six games and are now 8th in the American League with 4.1 runs per game on the season. They are also just 9th in the AL in OPS (.702) and wOBA (.308). On a positive note, Austin Jackson kept up his stellar all around play and is second in the league to slugging Josh Hamilton with 2.1 WAR.
The other good batting story is outfielder Andy Dirks who has emerged as the team leader in batting average (.339), slugging average (.607) and OPS (.969). In an effortt to jump start the offense, manager Jim Leyland moved Dirks to the second spot in the order replacing the sputtering Brennan Boesch versus right handers. Unfortunately, the upbeat news ends with Jackson and Dirks as the rest of the line-up has been a disappointment.
Defensively, the Tigers have allowed 4.2 runs per game, the ninth lowest total in the league. Much of the blame goes to the fielders who have cost the team an estimated 15 runs more than would be expected from an average group of fielders (taking the average or Total Zone, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating).
Any fan who is paying attention at all has also noticed that the Tigers bullpen is blowing games left and right. In fact, they are just 11-5 when they have the lead after seventh innings. That's a far cry from 2011 when they were 77-0 when leading after seven innings.
Despite the inferior fielding and the leaky bullpen, there is reason for optimism. Starting pitcher Doug Fister has returned from his side injury and the Tigers now have one of the most formidable starting rotations in the league. In fact, they had been doing quite well without Fister.
If you strip away the contributions (or lack thereof) of the the fielders and the bullpen and just focus on things that pitchers do on their own., the rotation is at or near the top of the league in most categories (and that includes games in which Adam Wilk started). For example, The Tigers starters lead the league in fewest walks per nine innings (2.3) and strikeout/walk ratio (3.4).
If we look at all the things that pitchers can control essentially on their own - walks, strikeouts, hit batsmen, home runs and batted ball types (ground ball percentage, line drive percentage, etc), we can get component ERAs. Component ERAs (found on FanGraphs) estimate what the starters ERA should be based on those events. The Tigers starters rank quite high on all of them:
FIP 3.48 (1st)
xFIP 3.51 (1st)
tERA 3.73 (3rd)
SIERA 3.50 (1st)
Taking the average of the four above measures, the Tigers estimated ERA based on things they can control should be 3.56.
Table 1 below shows how the Tigers individual starters are doing on the above measures. The first column is their actual ERA, columns two through five are component ERAs and the final column is the average of the four component ERAs.
Table 1: Component ERAs of Tigers starters as of May 9, 2012
Pitcher | ERA | FIP | xFIP | tERA | SIERA | Composite |
Verlander | 2.63 | 2.34 | 3.23 | 2.59 | 3.15 | 2.83 |
Fister | 0.00 | 2.10 | 2.87 | 3.59 | 3.21 | 2.94 |
Smyly | 1.59 | 3.07 | 3.23 | 3.06 | 3.18 | 3.13 |
Scherzer | 6.32 | 3.84 | 3.84 | 3.99 | 3.48 | 3.79 |
Porcello | 4.91 | 4.37 | 3.70 | 4.73 | 3.68 | 4.12 |
The composite of the components (or any one component for that matter) is a better predictor of future ERA than actual ERA. So, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello should do a lot better from here on out. I think most fans would be pretty happy if their five starters ended up posting actual ERAs similar to the current composite ERAs by season's end.
The outlook for the starting staff is very encouraging indeed and it's the main reason I'm not too concerned about the team's early struggles. I'm confident the Tigers will hit better soon and the bullpen is usually the easiest element to upgrade with in-season trades. Once a starting staff goes bad due to ill health or poor performance. it is generally the hardest thing to repair. Thankfully, the Tigers rotation looks to be in great shape.
Friday, April 27, 2012
Tigers After Three Weeks
After a strong first two weeks of the season, the third week was a disaster for the Tigers. It wasn't so bad that they lost three out of four to a powerful Rangers team. Getting swept by the lowly Mariners is another story. Their record now stands at 10-9, but somehow they remain in a tie for first with the White Sox and Indians.
Offensively, the Tigers are 8th in the American League with 4.2 runs scored per game. That's certainly disappointing and there is lots of blame to spread around, but the bulk of it belongs to three positions. The Tigers are last in the league in Weighted On-Base Average at second base (.195) and left field (.249) and 12th in right field (.250).
The culprits at second base are Brandon Inge (released on Thursday), Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago. Raburn and Santiago will now split second base duties and are sure to improve offensively.
Delmon Young has received the bulk of playing time in left and has not shown any signs of returning to his 2010 form. After his incident this morning, his current status is in limbo. Don Kelly is playing left field tonight, so don't expect any improvement offensively. Right fielder Brennan Boesch has not performed well at the plate or in the field, but we are bound to see an improvement sooner or later.
The Tigers are hoping to boost their offense in the short-term by inserting recently promoted Brad Eldred into the designated hitter slot on a regular basis. He had an astounding 13 home runs and 23 extra base hits in 20 games for Toledo this year. He won't keep that up obviously, but if he can carry his hot streak a little longer, it may help jump start the Tigers offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Tigers have allowed the 10th fewest runs in the league. The statistics indicate that fielding has been a bigger problem than pitching. They are currently 28th in baseball with a Defensive Efficiency Ratio of .661. In other words, they have converted 66% of balls in play into outs versus a league average of 70%. That shouldn't be a big surprised to those who have watched most of the games and noticed how little ground they cover in Comerica Park and elsewhere.
If you believe in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), their pitching has actually been quite good. They are tied for second with a 3.58 FIP overall and are fourth in both starter's FIP (3.63) and relievers FIP (3.52). Justin Verlander and rookie Drew Smyly have been excellent, while Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello have been their usual inconsistent selves. The good news is that Doug Fister threw off a mound without pain this week and should be back some time in early May.
Offensively, the Tigers are 8th in the American League with 4.2 runs scored per game. That's certainly disappointing and there is lots of blame to spread around, but the bulk of it belongs to three positions. The Tigers are last in the league in Weighted On-Base Average at second base (.195) and left field (.249) and 12th in right field (.250).
The culprits at second base are Brandon Inge (released on Thursday), Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago. Raburn and Santiago will now split second base duties and are sure to improve offensively.
Delmon Young has received the bulk of playing time in left and has not shown any signs of returning to his 2010 form. After his incident this morning, his current status is in limbo. Don Kelly is playing left field tonight, so don't expect any improvement offensively. Right fielder Brennan Boesch has not performed well at the plate or in the field, but we are bound to see an improvement sooner or later.
The Tigers are hoping to boost their offense in the short-term by inserting recently promoted Brad Eldred into the designated hitter slot on a regular basis. He had an astounding 13 home runs and 23 extra base hits in 20 games for Toledo this year. He won't keep that up obviously, but if he can carry his hot streak a little longer, it may help jump start the Tigers offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Tigers have allowed the 10th fewest runs in the league. The statistics indicate that fielding has been a bigger problem than pitching. They are currently 28th in baseball with a Defensive Efficiency Ratio of .661. In other words, they have converted 66% of balls in play into outs versus a league average of 70%. That shouldn't be a big surprised to those who have watched most of the games and noticed how little ground they cover in Comerica Park and elsewhere.
If you believe in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), their pitching has actually been quite good. They are tied for second with a 3.58 FIP overall and are fourth in both starter's FIP (3.63) and relievers FIP (3.52). Justin Verlander and rookie Drew Smyly have been excellent, while Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello have been their usual inconsistent selves. The good news is that Doug Fister threw off a mound without pain this week and should be back some time in early May.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Where the Tigers Stand After Two Weeks
After a sweep of the Royals at Kansas City, the Tigers are sitting in first place in the AL Central with a 9-3 record. That is their best 12-game start since the 1984 championship season (when they started 11-1). The White Sox are 2 games back and the Indians 2 1/2 back as I write.
After a hot start in week one, the Tigers offense slowed down in week two including a 0 for 22 slump for slugging third baseman Miguel Cabrera. He has since snapped out of it, but their pitching has carried them more than their hitting in recent games.
For the season, the Tigers are fifth in the American League with 4.8 runs per game. Despite going zero for eight in his last two games, center fielder Austin Jackson has been the team's leading hitter batting .333 with six extra base hits, eight walks and 11 runs scored in 12 games. Other hot Tigers include Prince Fielder (.945 OPS) and Alex Avila (.879).
On the downside, Ryan Raburn is off to another horrendous start batting .081. Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately for him) the other second basemen - Brandon Inge and Ramon Santiago - are not doing much better in limited action. Right fielder Brennan Boesch has also been a disappointment with a .540 OPS.
Defensively, the Tigers are second in the league to the Rangers with just 3.3 runs allowed per game. They are doing it without right hander Doug Fister who is still on the disabled list with a side injury. Rookies Drew Smyly and Adam Wilk have filled in nicely so far and one or both could still play an important role upon Fister's return.
Justin Verlander leads the league in innings pitched (25 1/3) and is tied for the league lead in pitching runs (6) and strikeouts (23). Rick Porcello has looked sharp in his first two starts and Max Scherzer has recovered well after his shelling in game one.
The Tigers fielders lack range but have been fairly steady so far with just three errors and not as many bonehead plays as you might expect from a team clearly built on hitting more than fielding. It's too early for advanced fielding metrics, but their Defensive Efficiency Ratio of .695 is 18th in the majors.
Individually, Cabrera has looked better than expected at third base and as long as he stays fit, he should not be a big problem over there. Inge has also proven to be adept defensively at his new second base position. On the other hand, Boesch, Raburn and Delmon Young have all had their problems in the field.
Next up for the Tigers is a showdown with the west division leading Texas Rangers at Comerica Park. The Rangers have lost just two games so far, so it should be a very entertaining match-up.
After a hot start in week one, the Tigers offense slowed down in week two including a 0 for 22 slump for slugging third baseman Miguel Cabrera. He has since snapped out of it, but their pitching has carried them more than their hitting in recent games.
For the season, the Tigers are fifth in the American League with 4.8 runs per game. Despite going zero for eight in his last two games, center fielder Austin Jackson has been the team's leading hitter batting .333 with six extra base hits, eight walks and 11 runs scored in 12 games. Other hot Tigers include Prince Fielder (.945 OPS) and Alex Avila (.879).
On the downside, Ryan Raburn is off to another horrendous start batting .081. Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately for him) the other second basemen - Brandon Inge and Ramon Santiago - are not doing much better in limited action. Right fielder Brennan Boesch has also been a disappointment with a .540 OPS.
Defensively, the Tigers are second in the league to the Rangers with just 3.3 runs allowed per game. They are doing it without right hander Doug Fister who is still on the disabled list with a side injury. Rookies Drew Smyly and Adam Wilk have filled in nicely so far and one or both could still play an important role upon Fister's return.
Justin Verlander leads the league in innings pitched (25 1/3) and is tied for the league lead in pitching runs (6) and strikeouts (23). Rick Porcello has looked sharp in his first two starts and Max Scherzer has recovered well after his shelling in game one.
The Tigers fielders lack range but have been fairly steady so far with just three errors and not as many bonehead plays as you might expect from a team clearly built on hitting more than fielding. It's too early for advanced fielding metrics, but their Defensive Efficiency Ratio of .695 is 18th in the majors.
Individually, Cabrera has looked better than expected at third base and as long as he stays fit, he should not be a big problem over there. Inge has also proven to be adept defensively at his new second base position. On the other hand, Boesch, Raburn and Delmon Young have all had their problems in the field.
Next up for the Tigers is a showdown with the west division leading Texas Rangers at Comerica Park. The Rangers have lost just two games so far, so it should be a very entertaining match-up.
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