Alex Avila's Awesome Season

In his his first season as the Tigers full-time catcher, Alex Avila did much more than hold his own.  The left-handed batting receiver put up numbers which compared favorably to any backstop in franchise history.  He batted .295 with 19 homers and 33 doubles and finished fifth in the American League with a .389 on-base percentage (OBP).  Additionally, his .895 OPS was eighth in the league and tops among catchers.

The 24-year-old catcher proved to be a workhorse leading the league with 133 games caught.  In fact, he may have caught too many games.  By the end of the season, he had tendonitis in both knees and was generally beat up.  While Avila handled his post-season catching duties admirably, he batted just .073 with one homer in 11 games.  However, his difficult post season does nothing to take away from his fabulous regular season.

Earlier in the year, I used the OPS+ statistic to compare Avila's season to past Tigers catchers.  Remember that OPS+ is a batter's OPS adjusted for ballpark and league average.  The league average hitter has an OPS+ of 100.  Anything better than 100 is above average.  Anything less than 100 is below average.   Only about 10% of batters have an OPS+ of 135 or higher.  So, Avila's OPS+ of 143 was really good especially for a catcher.

Table 1 below shows that Avila finished fourth all time among Tigers catchers on the OPS+ statistic.  Only Rudy York (151 in 1937) and Bill Freehan (145 in 1968, 144 in 1967) finished ahead of him.  Interestingly, Freehan also struggled in his first post-season batting .083 in the 1968 World Series.

Table 1: Single-Season OPS+ Leaders Among Tigers Catchers

Player	Year	OPS+
Rudy York	1937	151
Bill Freehan	1968	145
Bill Freehan	1967	144
Alex Avila	2011	143
Mickey Tettleton	1991	140
Rudy York	1938	140
Mickey Cochrane	1935	138
Pudge Rodriguez	2004	136
Mickey Tettleton	1992	136
Lance Parrish	1982	13

Source:Baseball-Reference

One problem with OPS and OPS+ is that they weight OBP as equal to slugging average (SLG) when OBP actually contributes about 80% more to run scoring than SLG.  Another issue is that OPS/OPS+ fail to take playing time into consideration. A better measure of overall batting is Batting Runs or BtRuns, first introduced in the Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn in 1984.

In the BtRuns system, weights are assigned to each batting event based on the statistical probability that the event contributes to a run. Based on the results of thousands of games, we know that the average single is worth 0.47 runs.  In other words, if one single is added to a team’s hit total in each game for 100 games, that team would be expected to add 47 runs to their season total.  Other events are weighted as follows:

1B 0.47
2B 0.77
3B 1.04
HR 1.40
BB 0.31
IBB 0.17
HBP 0.33
outs (AB-H) -0.27 (varies from year to year)

Adjustments can also be made to reflect the effect of the player's home park.

According to Baseball-Reference, Avila finished 10th in the AL with 31.2 BtRuns.  This means that he contributed an estimated 31 runs to the Tigers offense beyond what you would expect from an average hitter in the same number of plate appearances.

Table 2 shows that Avila finished fourth among Tigers catchers in BtRuns.  He is in great company.  Only Bill Freehan (33.0 in 1967 and 32.0 in 1968) and Hall of Famer Mickey Cochrane (31.7 in 1935) finished ahead of him.  Others on the list include Mickey Tettleton, Rudy York, Pudge Rodriguez and Lance Parrish.

Table 1: Single-Season Batting Runs Leaders Among Tigers Catchers

Player	Year	Bt Runs
Bill Freehan	1967	33.0
Bill Freehan	1968	32.0
Mickey Cochrane	1935	31.7
Alex Avila	2011	31.2
Mickey Tettleton	1992	30.2
Mickey Tettleton	1991	30.2
Rudy York	1938	30.2
Pudge Rodriguez	2004	27.9
Rudy York	1937	26.1
Lance Parrish	1982	20.8

 Source: Baseball-Reference

What lies ahead for Avila?   Consider that that only five catchers have ever accumulated more BtRuns in a single season before the age of 25.  They are Johnny Bench, Mike Piazza, Joe Mauer, Carlton Fisk and Joe Torre.  So, he is in great company. 

As seen by the beating Avila took this year, catching is a very tough position and it's very difficult for any catcher to put up great seasons on a regular basis.  However, Avila's future is sure looking very bright.

Miguel Cabrera Leads Tigers into Playoffs with Historic Season

Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera has not received as much publicity this year as teammate Justin Verlander.  In fact, his season has gone relatively unnoticed nationally as he has not been mentioned prominently in many MVP discussions.  However, a look at his raw numbers reveals a truly great season.

The right-handed slugger led the league in batting average (.344), On-Base Percentage or OBP (.448) and doubles (48) and finished second in walks (108) and Slugging Average or SLG (.586).  The OBP title is particularly noteworthy as he has led the league in that category two straight seasons.  The only other Tiger to lead the league in OBP more than once was the legendary Ty Cobb, who accomplished that feat six times.

If you place emphasis on late-season performance, Cabrera's season becomes even more impressive.  From August 1 until the end of the season, Cabrera hit an amazing .408/.491/.648 making him a crucial cog in Detroit's late season surge.     

Is there one number which can sum up his season?  The most commonly used metric of overall batting is On Base Plus Slugging or OPS.  His 1.033 OPS was second in the league to Toronto's Jose Bautista (1.056).  The problem with OPS though is that it weights OBP as equal to SLG when OBP actually contributes about 80% more to run scoring than SLG.

A better measure of overall batting than OPS is Batting Runs or BtRuns, first introduced in the Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn in 1984.  In this system, weights are assigned to each batting event based on the statistical probability that the event contributes to a run. Based on the results of thousands of games, we know that the average single is worth 0.47 runs.  In other words, if one single is added to a team’s hit total in each game for 100 games, that team would be expected to add 47 runs to their season total.  Other events are weighted as follows:

1B 0.47
2B 0.77
3B 1.04
HR 1.40
BB 0.31
IBB 0.17
HBP 0.33
outs (AB-H) -0.27 (varies from year to year)

Adjustments can also be made to reflect the effect of the player's home park.

According to Baseball-Reference, Cabrera led the AL with 71 batting runs in 2011.  This means that he contributed an estimated 71 runs to the Tigers offense beyond what you would expect from an average hitter in the same number of plate appearances.  Bautista finished second with 67 and Red Sox first baseman Adrian Gonzalez was a distant third with 51.  Based on that, you can make a strong case that Cabrera was the best hitter in the American League this year.  Last year, incidentally, he also led the league with 66 Batting runs with Josh Hamilton of the Rangers second at 52.

Not only did Cabrera have a great year compared to his contemporaries, but his season also ranks very highly among Tigers hitters all-time.  The table below shows that he had the fifth highest BtRuns total in the history of the franchise this year.  The all-time best was Norm Cash with 85 in 1961.  Cabrera's 2010 season ranked tenth on the team's all-time list.  Not surprisingly , Cobb appears six times in the top 15.

So, while Cabrera's season has not received a great deal of national media attention yet, it was a remarkable season both by this year's standards and historically. 

Table 1:  Tigers Single-season Batting Runs Leaders

Player	Year	BtRuns
Norm Cash	1961	85
Ty Cobb	1911	76
Ty Cobb	1917	75
Harry Heilmann	1923	74
Miguel Cabrera	2011	71
Ty Cobb	1915	70
Ty Cobb	1912	69
Hank Greenberg	1937	67
Ty Cobb	1910	66
Miguel Cabrera	2010	65
Hank Greenberg	1940	64
Harry Heilmann	1927	64
Ty Cobb	1909	62
Hank Greenberg	1935	62
Magglio Ordonez	2007	62

Source: Baseball-Reference

What's a Good OPS?

Many fans like the traditional statistic batting average because they are so familiar with its values.  They know right away that a .300 average is excellent, a .220 average is poor and a .400 batting average is both fantastic and rare.  One problem many fans have when they are introduced to a new measure is that they don't know what values of the statistic are good and bad.  When they hear about OPS for the first time, for example, they might ask: "What's a good OPS?"  

One of the most popular features of my book Beyond Batting Average is a series of simple percentile charts which help give an idea as to which values of a statistic are good and bad by comparing them to batting average.  The table below shows the percentiles for  some of the less traditional statistics and puts them next to the equivalent percentiles for batting average.  This makes it easier for fans to grasp some of the newer statistics.  The chart includes all MLB regulars or semi-regulars with 400 or more plate appearances in 2010.

One can see from the table that the 75th percentile for batting average was .286.  This means that 75 percent of these players hit below .286 and 25 percent hit better than .286.  A player with an Isolated Power (ISO) of .197 would also be at the 75th percentile.  So, we can say that an ISO of .197 is as good as a batting average of .286. Similarly, an ISO of .081 would be bad because it's equivalent to a .243 batting average (10th percentile).  One might also call this a batting average equivalency chart.   

The statistics in the chart can be found on FanGraphs.com. They are defined as follows:

BA = Batting Average
OBP = On-Base Percentage
SLG= Slugging Average
OPS = On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging Average
ISO = Isolated Power = Number of Extra Bases Per AB = (2B + 2 x 3B + 3 x HR)/AB
BB%= Base on Balls Percentage = % of PA resulting in walks
K%= Strikeout Percentage = % of AB resulting in strikeouts

I'll provide batting average equivalency charts for more statistics in later posts.  

Table 1: Batting Average Equivalencies for 2010

Giving Cabrera Credit for his Intentional Walks

In a recent FanGraphs article, Dave Cameron discussed how Miguel Cabrera has not been as valuable as some of his numbers might indicate.  His reasoning was that Cabrera has been walked intentionally 30 times and intentional walks are not as valuable as non-intentional walks:

Intentional walks are issued in situations where the opposing team believes it is more valuable to have the batter on first base than at the plate. It is a strategic move, based on the situation at hand, that is aimed at reducing the offense’s chance of scoring a run, or multiple runs, in a given inning. 

From the examination of thousands of games , it has been determined that the average non-intentional walk (NIBB) contributes about 0.33 runs.  In other words, if one NIBB is added to a team’s total in each game for 100 games, that team would be expected to add 33 runs to their season total.   An intentional walk (IBB), on the other hand contributes about 0.18 runs on average (according to The Book by Tom Tango, Michel Lichtman and Andrew Dolphin).  Other events have the following approximate values (called linear weights):

HBP 0.33

1B .47

2B .77

3B 1.04

HR 1.40

Out –.27

These linear weights can be inserted into a formula to calculate Batting Runs (BR):

BR = 0.33 x NIBB + 0.18 x IBB + 0.33 x HBP + 0.47 x 1B + 0.77 x 2B + 1.04 x 3B + 1.40 x HR – 0.27 X Outs

Sometimes, other events such as errors, stolen bases and caught stealing are included in the formula, but those are not needed for this particular discussion.   Cabrera had the following numbers as of yesterday:

NIBB 55

IBB 30

HBP 3

1B 90

2B 45

3B 1

HR 34

Outs 342

According to the above formula, Cabrera had 57.8 BR heading into today’s action.  This tells us that he has contributed 57.8 runs above what an average batter would have been expected to contribute given the same number of outs.  Suppose, we did not distinguish between NIBB’s and IBBS and credited Cabrera 0.33 runs for all of his walks.  In that case, we would add 30 x .15 = 4.5 runs giving him a total of 62.3 BR. 

Whether or not we distinguish between different types of walks is important in comparing his batting to Josh Hamilton, who is considered his main competition for the MVP award.  If we give batters less credit for intentional walks, then Cabrera leads Hamilton (38 NIBB, 5 IBB) in BR 57.8 to 56.2.  If we consider all walks to be worth 0.33 runs, then Cabrera leads 62.3 to 56.9.   We wouldn’t stop there in determining their value of course.  We would look at baserunning contribution, park effects, position and defensive contribution.  That’s for another post though. 

The question is should we distinguish between type of walk in the calculation of batting runs?  Tigers fans have protested that Miguel Cabrera is being unfairly punished just because he has had less protection in the batting order than Hamilton.  They also reason that he gets walked a lot because pitchers fear him and would rather not face him.  This indicates something positive about Cabrera’s hitting skill, not something negative. 

The purpose of Batting Runs though is not to punish or reward a player.  It’s also not meant to determine the best hitter.  It is supposed to determine how much value in terms of runs a player contributes to his team.  Thus, when a pitcher walks a batter to reduce the potential of scoring a run, it makes sense that the value of that walk might be reduced accordingly.

This practice is not universally accepted though.  Tango and FanGraphs distinguish between walks but Pete Palmer (the creator of the linear weights system) and Gary Gillette do not distinguish between NIBBs and IBBs in The ESPN Baseball Encylopedia.  Baseball-Reference follows the lead of Palmer on that issue as well.

A reason for not cutting the value of an IBB might be that many NIBBs are essentially IBBs.  There are many instances where batters are pitched around and receive a walk without it being an intentional walk.  This is especially true when considering  hitters of the caliber of Hamilton and Cabrera. So, do we cut the value of all their walks in high leverage situations because we know pitchers are usually not giving them anything to hit? 

I don’t think the solution to the intentional walk problem is cut and dried.  I typically look at FanGraphs Batting Runs (wRAA) before I go to Baseball-Reference but in the case of batters like Cabrera or Albert Pujols, who receive a lot of intentional walks,  I think it’s important to look at it both ways.  There is never one number that gives you the final answer in statistical analysis. 

Where Does Cabrera's 2010 Season Rank in Tigers History?

It's been well documented that Miguel Cabrera has a chance to be the first Triple Crown winner (league leader in batting average, home runs and Runs Batted In)  in Major League Baseball since Red Sox outfielder Carl Yastremski accomplished the feat in 1967.  Cabrera's .347 batting average is second in the league to Rangers slugger Josh Hamilton (.354).  His 24 homer's are second to Jose Baustista of the Blue Jays (26) .  He leads the league in RBI with 85.   So, he is certainly within reach of winning all three categories.   

Cabrera also ranks well on some of the more modern statistics: He leads in slugging average (.650) and OPS (1.070).  He is second in OBP (.420) to Twins first Baseman Justin Morneau (.437). 

If we compare his OPS to league average and adjust for home ballpark, we get his adjusted OPS+.  An OPS+ of 100 is league average.  An OPS+ of more than 100 is better than average and an OPS+ of less than 100 is worse than average.  Keeping in mind that it's difficult to assign a ballpark effect to Target Field in Minnesota at this early stage, Cabrera is currently second to Morneau in OPS+ (181 versus 182). 

A limitation of OPS+ is that it weights OBP and slugging equally.  In actuality, OBP is more important than slugging and should carry more weight. It has been determine from the results of thousands of games that the following linear weights are more appropriate:

single 0.47
double 0.77
triple 1.04
home run 1.40
walk 0.31
HBP 0.34

Based on that, we can arrive at a batters runs created (wRC).  Cabrera has 84.7 wRC which is second to Hamilton at 85.8.  Adjusted Runs Created (wRC+) is the linear weights version of OPS+ and is interpreted the same way.  Cabrera is second to Morneau in wRC+ (181 to 185).

I used OPS+ and wRC+ to compare Cabrera's 2010 season so far to the best seasons in Tigers history.  Table 1 below lists the top seasons according to OPS+.  Not surprisingly, Ty Cobb dominates the list with nine of the top 11 seasons.   His OPS+ in those years ranged from 209 in 1917 to 185 in 1915.  His supremacy is interrupted only by Norm Cash (201 in 1961) and Harry Heilmann (194 in 1923).  Cabrera's current 181OPS+ ranks him 12th on the list.  For those who are curious, Magglio ordonez had a 166 OPS+ in 2007.


Table 1: Top OPS+ seasons in Tigers history 

Rank	Player	Year	OPS+
1	Ty Cobb	1917	209
2	Ty Cobb	1910	206
3	Norm Cash	1961	201
4	Ty Cobb	1912	200
5	Ty Cobb	1911	196
6	Harry Heilmann	1923	194
7	Ty Cobb	1913	194
8	Ty Cobb	1909	194
9	Ty Cobb	1918	193
10	Ty Cobb	1914	190
11	Ty Cobb	1915	185
12	Miguel Cabrera	2010	181
13	Harry Heilmann	1927	180
14	Ty Cobb	1916	179
15	Al Kaline	1967	176
16	Roy Cullenbine	1946	176

Table 2 lists the top Tigers seasons according to wRC+.  Cobb is even more dominant on this list taking nine of the top ten spots.  Cash's 1961 season is the only interruption.  Cabrera ranks #15 on this list behind ten seasons of Cobb, Cash, Heilmann's 1923 and 1927 seasons and Roy Cullenbine in 1946.

There is still a lot of baseball to be played this season but if Cabrera can keep up the same pace, it will be one of the best seasons ever by a Tiger not named Cobb.   

Table 2: Top wRC+ Seasons in Tigers history

Rank	Player	Year	wRC+
1	Ty Cobb	1917	219
2	Ty Cobb	1910	219
3	Ty Cobb	1911	210
4	Ty Cobb	1909	209
5	Ty Cobb	1913	203
6	Norm Cash	1961	200
7	Ty Cobb	1912	200
8	Ty Cobb	1915	200
9	Ty Cobb	1918	200
10	Ty Cobb	1914	197
11	Harry Heilmann	1923	196
12	Ty Cobb	1916	193
13	Roy Cullenbine	1946	192
14	Harry Heilmann	1927	187
15	Miguel Cabrera	2010	181
16	Al Kaline	1967	181

Best Rookie Seasons for Tigers Position Players

Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson are the two best rookies in the American League so far this season.  They are also having the most impressive seasons we've seen among Tigers rookie position players in a long time.  Where do they rank on the list of all-time Tigers rookies?  To answer this question, I used statistics from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.  Some of statistics used are:

•  PA = Plate appearances

•  BA = Batting Average

•  OBP = On Base Percentage

•  SLG = Slugging Average

• OPS+ = OPS relative to league average adjusting for ballpark: 100 is average; above 100 is  better than average; below 100 is worse than average.

• RAA = Runs Above Average = runs contributed above what an average batter would have been expected to contribute given the same number of outs.

• WAR = Wins Above Replacement = the wins a player contributed to his team’s win total above what you would expect from a replacement level player – a theoretical player who could be acquired for league minimum salary.

It’s a challenge to rank players from different eras and the rankings which follow are somewhat subjective.  It’s especially difficult to compare players on fielding contribution because the most advanced fielding data are only available for 2002-2010.  WAR attempts to include fielding contribution but data prior to retrosheet in 1954 are not very reliable.  For earlier years, anecdotal information on fielding is also considered. 

Assuming Brennan Boesch continues to hit at the same rate, he would be the best rookie hitter in Tigers history with an OPS+ of 160.  However, I have ranked him below Rudy York, who had a 150 OPS+ at the more demanding catching position.  I ranked Austin Jackson number five ahead of some better hitters, in part, because of his exceptional fielding at an important defensive position.  The top 12 players are included in Table 1.

Table 1: Top 10 Rookie Seasons for Tigers Position Players

Rank	Player	Year	Pos	Age	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	RAA	WAR
1	Rudy York	1937	C	23	417	.307	.375	.651	150	34.6	4.3
2	Brennan Boesch	2010	LF	25	251	.341	.394	.594	160	20.4	2.5
3	Dale Alexander	1929	1B	26	700	.343	.397	.580	148	42.9	4.5
4	Donie Bush	1909	SS	21	676	.273	.380	.314	114	26.1	7.4
5	Austin Jackson	2010	CF	23	322	.307	.354	.407	103	5.2	2.2
6	Dick Wakefield	1943	LF	22	697	.316	.377	.434	127	29.4	4.2
7	Matt Nokes	1987	C	23	508	.289	.345	.536	135	20.8	3.6
8	Barney McCosky	1939	CF	22	692	.311	.384	.470	100	20.6	4.2
9	Lou Whitaker	1978	2B	21	567	.285	.361	.357	101	4.7	3.7
10	Harvey Kuenn	1953	SS	22	731	.308	.356	.386	101	2.8	3.6
11	Lu Blue	1921	1B	24	709	.308	.416	.427	116	24.7	3.6
12	Ira Flagstead	1919	RF	25	342	.331	.416	.481	155	24.4	3.7

Here are some notes on each batter:

Rudy York (1937)

 

York blasted 18 home runs in the month of August which is still an American League record. He finished in the American League Top five in slugging (.651), homers (35) and OPS (1.026). York gets extra credit in the ranking for being a catcher. He wound up playing 13 Major League seasons between 1934-1948, most of them with the Tigers. He batted .275, with 277 home runs and a 123 OPS+ in 1,603 games. 

Brennan Boesch (2010)

Boesch is fifth in the league in OPS (.988), fourth in batting average (.341), and fourth in slugging (.594).  He is the clear favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award in the American League.  

Dale Alexander (1929)

Alexander finished in the American League top ten in batting average (.343), slugging (.580) and OPS (.977). He batted .331 in five seasons with the Tigers and Red Sox but was a terrible fielder and was sent to the minors after batting .281 in 1933.

Matt Nokes (1987)

Nokes hit one homer for every 14.4 at bats in 1987, good for fourth best in the league. He also gets extra credit for being a catcher. He played 11 seasons with five major league teams but never again approached the numbers of his rookie season.

Donie Bush (1909)

Bush led the league in games played (157) and walks (88) and finished third in OBP (.380). His rookie season was his best one offensively but he went on to play 16 seasons as a steady shortstop, mostly with the Tigers.

Austin Jackson (2010)

Jackson leads American League center fielders with a .307 batting average and is third in OBP (.354).  More importantly, he leads all Major League center fielders in Defensive Runs Saved (+12 runs better than average). 

Dick Wakefield (1943)

Wakefield was likely helped somewhat by the diluted talent pool during World War II but he finished second in batting (.316), 6th in OBP (.377) and 5th in slugging (.434). That was his only truly full season but he played nine years mostly with the Tigers and posted a 131 OPS+ in 2,132 career at bats.

Barney McCosky (1939)

McCosky finished 5th in the league in times on base (262), fourth in runs (120) and second in triples (14) while playing a solid center field.  He missed three prime years due to World War II but still posted a line of .312/.386/.414 in 11 seasons with four teams.

Lou Whitaker (1978)

Whitaker and Alan Trammell began their long careers as a very strong hitting and fielding keystone combo in 1978. Whitaker batted .285 with a .361 OBP and won the American League Rookie of the Year. He played 19 seasons, all with the Tigers, and batted .276/.363/.426.

Harvey Kuenn (1953)

Kuenn finished sixth in the league with a .308 batting average in 155 games as a shortstop. That performance earned him the American League Rookie of the Year award. Kuenn went on to bat .303 in 15 seasons for five major league teams.

Lu Blue (1921)

Blue walked 103 times to finish second in the league and his .416 OBP was good for eighth. In 13 major league seasons, he walked 1,092 times with only 436 strikeouts.

Ira Flagstead (1919)

 

Flagstead batted a robust .331/.416/.481 with a 153 OPS+ but ranks as low as twelfth on this list because he had only 342 plate appearances in 1919. He played 13 seasons, mostly with the Tigers and Red Sox, and batted .290 with a .370 OBP.