A lot has changed with the Tigers in a year. Last year, Brandon Inge was playing third base, Victor Martinez was the designated hitter and Miguel Cabrera was manning first base. Prince Fielder was a Brewer, Delmon Young a Twin and Doug Fister a Mariner.
At this time last year, Austin Jackson had a .318 on-base percentage and just three home runs; Brennan Boesch was hitting .301with a .838 OPS; Johnny Peralta was batting .308 with 14 home runs. On the pitching side, Brad Penny had the second best ERA among starters (4.50); Al Alburquerque had 47 strikeouts in 29 innings; Jose Valverde was a perfect 24 for 24 in save opportunities.
Despite the differences between 2011 and 2012, the record after 93 games is the same. On July 15, 2011, the Tigers were 49-44 and one game behind the Indians. On July 20, 2012, the Tigers are 49-44 and one and a half games behind the White Sox.
They were also pretty similar in terms of runs scored and runs allowed checking in around league average in both categories in both years. Last year, they scored 415 and allowed 429 (a negative 14 run differential). This year, they have scored 424 and allowed 413 (a run differential of 11) . So, they were a little luckier last year and a little better this year.
Last year, they were in the middle of a three game series with the White Sox and had just lost the first game 8-2 in a rare pounding of Justin Verlander. This year, of course they are starting a three-games series versus Chicago with Verlander on the mound. Hopefully, tonight goes a little better than that.
Then again, Tigers fans will be happy if the final regular season result is the same as last year when they went 46-23 in their last 69 games to finish with a record of 95-67 and a division title by 15 games.
Showing posts with label miscellaneous. Show all posts
Showing posts with label miscellaneous. Show all posts
Friday, July 20, 2012
Sunday, July 08, 2012
Three Surprises of the First Half
As the Tigers enter the four-day all-star break, I'm going to list the three surprises of the first half:
Austin Jackson
Who guessed that Austin Jackson would go into the all-star break second in the league in batting average (.332) and on-base percentage (.408), eighth in slugging (.545) and fifth in OPS (.953)? I'm betting nobody came close. Can he keep up the pace? His batting average will likely go down when his .420 BABIP drops to a more reasonable level, but even if he settles in as a .280 to .290 hitter, he should still have an outstanding season.
While the batting average may drop, much of Jackson's improvement should be sustainable. His Isolated Power has risen 75% from .125 in 2011 to .218 this year. Some fans consider the home runs to be the most surprising development of his season, but scouts had previously predicted a power boost for Jackson, so I think this is a real change.
More surprising to me than the increase in power is his improved walk and strikeout rates. He has increased his walks by 34% while decreasing his strikeouts by 17%. That would mean about 20 extra walks and 30 fewer strikeouts over a full season which is a lot. It does not take a large sample size for these particular rates to stabilize. Thus, I think he has genuinely reached a new level of plate discipline.
I'm thinking Ajax might have a final line of something like .285/.370/.470. Combine that with his base running and his outstanding defensive skills and you've got an all-star caliber center fielder. If the all-star game is supposed to be based on the first half of the year, then he should be there this year for sure.
Quintin Berry
In a couple of months, Quintin Berry has gone from career minor leaguer and organizational filler to a key cog at the top of the Tigers line-up. Berry enters the break batting .299 with a stellar .388 OBP and is tied for the league lead with five triples. His 1.2 Wins Above Replacement is fourth on the team trailing only Jackson, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. After 41 games and 164 plate appearances, it's getting harder to pass this off as a lucky hot streak.
It's probably still too early to get overly optimistic about Berry's future. His .408 BABIP will drop as will his batting average and he has little power. Despite his speed, he is not a great defender, although certainly far better than the likes of Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch.
Berry has his shortcomings, but the one thing which separates him from the Nook Logans and Josh Andersons is his ability to draw walks. He has drawn 17 free passes in 164 plate Appearances this year, a rate consistent with his minor league career. If he can keep that up, he can build a career for himself at the major league level as a platoon player or fourth outfielder or maybe even a starter on some teams. One of those teams could be next year's Tigers if things break right.
Brayan Villarreal
Right-handed reliever Brayan Villarreal has always had great stuff, but his performance took a step back in 2011. He posted a 6.75 ERA and walked 10 batters in just 16 innings in a brief stint with the Tigers. He didn't do much better with the Toledo MudHens where he had a 5.05 ERA in 66 innings.
This year, Villarreal has emerged as the new Al Alburquerque of the Tigers bullpen. He has dominated opposing hitters with 40 strikeouts and a 1.55 ERA in 29 innings pitched. Manager Jim Leyland has been impressed enough that he now has confidence routinely using Villarreal in high-leverage situations. The 25-year-old fire baller is showing no signs of letting up and could the team's closer of the future.
Honorable Mentions
Outfielder Andy Dirks got off to a great start batting .328/.379/.515 in 37 games before injuring his achilles.
Southpaw Duane Below has been a strong reliever with a 2.75 ERA and 25/4 K/BB ratio in 36 innings, but has typically been used in low-leverage situations.
Austin Jackson
Who guessed that Austin Jackson would go into the all-star break second in the league in batting average (.332) and on-base percentage (.408), eighth in slugging (.545) and fifth in OPS (.953)? I'm betting nobody came close. Can he keep up the pace? His batting average will likely go down when his .420 BABIP drops to a more reasonable level, but even if he settles in as a .280 to .290 hitter, he should still have an outstanding season.
While the batting average may drop, much of Jackson's improvement should be sustainable. His Isolated Power has risen 75% from .125 in 2011 to .218 this year. Some fans consider the home runs to be the most surprising development of his season, but scouts had previously predicted a power boost for Jackson, so I think this is a real change.
More surprising to me than the increase in power is his improved walk and strikeout rates. He has increased his walks by 34% while decreasing his strikeouts by 17%. That would mean about 20 extra walks and 30 fewer strikeouts over a full season which is a lot. It does not take a large sample size for these particular rates to stabilize. Thus, I think he has genuinely reached a new level of plate discipline.
I'm thinking Ajax might have a final line of something like .285/.370/.470. Combine that with his base running and his outstanding defensive skills and you've got an all-star caliber center fielder. If the all-star game is supposed to be based on the first half of the year, then he should be there this year for sure.
Quintin Berry
In a couple of months, Quintin Berry has gone from career minor leaguer and organizational filler to a key cog at the top of the Tigers line-up. Berry enters the break batting .299 with a stellar .388 OBP and is tied for the league lead with five triples. His 1.2 Wins Above Replacement is fourth on the team trailing only Jackson, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. After 41 games and 164 plate appearances, it's getting harder to pass this off as a lucky hot streak.
It's probably still too early to get overly optimistic about Berry's future. His .408 BABIP will drop as will his batting average and he has little power. Despite his speed, he is not a great defender, although certainly far better than the likes of Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch.
Berry has his shortcomings, but the one thing which separates him from the Nook Logans and Josh Andersons is his ability to draw walks. He has drawn 17 free passes in 164 plate Appearances this year, a rate consistent with his minor league career. If he can keep that up, he can build a career for himself at the major league level as a platoon player or fourth outfielder or maybe even a starter on some teams. One of those teams could be next year's Tigers if things break right.
Brayan Villarreal
Right-handed reliever Brayan Villarreal has always had great stuff, but his performance took a step back in 2011. He posted a 6.75 ERA and walked 10 batters in just 16 innings in a brief stint with the Tigers. He didn't do much better with the Toledo MudHens where he had a 5.05 ERA in 66 innings.
This year, Villarreal has emerged as the new Al Alburquerque of the Tigers bullpen. He has dominated opposing hitters with 40 strikeouts and a 1.55 ERA in 29 innings pitched. Manager Jim Leyland has been impressed enough that he now has confidence routinely using Villarreal in high-leverage situations. The 25-year-old fire baller is showing no signs of letting up and could the team's closer of the future.
Honorable Mentions
Outfielder Andy Dirks got off to a great start batting .328/.379/.515 in 37 games before injuring his achilles.
Southpaw Duane Below has been a strong reliever with a 2.75 ERA and 25/4 K/BB ratio in 36 innings, but has typically been used in low-leverage situations.
Monday, June 18, 2012
Tigers with Five or More Hits in One Game
When Tigers speedy outfielder Quintin Berry collected five hits in Sunday's 5-0 victory over the Rockies, I was curious as to how many other Tigers have accomplished that feat. According to the Baseball-Reference Play Index tool, there have been 114 games where a Tigers batter had five or more hits in a game since 1918 (the first year complete play-by-play records are available). They range from from weak-hitting shortstop Cesar Guitierrez to the legendary Ty Cobb.
A box score from my childhood which I will never forget shows that Gutierrez went an improbable seven for seven on June 21, 1970 in the second game of a doubleheader versus the Indians. I was only seven-years old at the time, but I knew that seven hits was an amazing feat. A lifetime .235 hitter in 600 plate appearances, Gutierrez collected six singles and a double in a twelve-inning 9-8 victory over the Indians. What did he do in game one of the twin bill ? He didn't play. The immortal Ken Szotkiewicz went 0 for 3 as the Detroit shortstop.
The other Tiger with seven hits in one game was the more accomplished Rocky Colavito. You don't hear about this game as often as the Gutierrez game, because it took Colavito ten at bats in a 22-inning 9-7 loss to the Yankees. Not every Tiger was as fortunate as Colavito that day as infielders Steve Boros and Chico Fernandez and outfielder Purnal Goldy each went one for ten.
There have been five Tigers with six hits in a game. The most recent was Carlos Pena who went six for six in a 17-7 win versus the Royals on May 27, 2004. This was an afternoon game which I remember hearing at work. His six base knocks included two home runs and a double. The Tigers first baseman went into the game batting .204, so his performance was a pretty big surprise. Pena led a 27-hit attack including four apiece by outfielder Alex Sanchez and infielder Omar Infante.
The last Tiger before Berry to get five hits in a game was Brennan Boesch versus the the Rangers last June 6. He needed six at bats to do it though. The most recent five for five performance was by Austin Jackson on April 30, 2010.
Who is the Tigers king of five-hit games? Not surprisingly, Cobb is the leader with eight five-hit games. Only eight? That's because the first 13 years of his career came before 1918 and are thus not included.
A box score from my childhood which I will never forget shows that Gutierrez went an improbable seven for seven on June 21, 1970 in the second game of a doubleheader versus the Indians. I was only seven-years old at the time, but I knew that seven hits was an amazing feat. A lifetime .235 hitter in 600 plate appearances, Gutierrez collected six singles and a double in a twelve-inning 9-8 victory over the Indians. What did he do in game one of the twin bill ? He didn't play. The immortal Ken Szotkiewicz went 0 for 3 as the Detroit shortstop.
The other Tiger with seven hits in one game was the more accomplished Rocky Colavito. You don't hear about this game as often as the Gutierrez game, because it took Colavito ten at bats in a 22-inning 9-7 loss to the Yankees. Not every Tiger was as fortunate as Colavito that day as infielders Steve Boros and Chico Fernandez and outfielder Purnal Goldy each went one for ten.
There have been five Tigers with six hits in a game. The most recent was Carlos Pena who went six for six in a 17-7 win versus the Royals on May 27, 2004. This was an afternoon game which I remember hearing at work. His six base knocks included two home runs and a double. The Tigers first baseman went into the game batting .204, so his performance was a pretty big surprise. Pena led a 27-hit attack including four apiece by outfielder Alex Sanchez and infielder Omar Infante.
The last Tiger before Berry to get five hits in a game was Brennan Boesch versus the the Rangers last June 6. He needed six at bats to do it though. The most recent five for five performance was by Austin Jackson on April 30, 2010.
Who is the Tigers king of five-hit games? Not surprisingly, Cobb is the leader with eight five-hit games. Only eight? That's because the first 13 years of his career came before 1918 and are thus not included.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Thoughts on Tigers First Week
The Tigers are 5-1 after taking two series from teams expected to contend for post-season this year. They could have easily been 3-3 if not for the Red Sox bullpen meltdown in the opening series, but those games are in the books and the Red Sox can't have them back.
The Tigers were expected to have an explosive offense this year and they didn't disappoint in the opening week. They lead the majors with 6.7 runs per game and a .304 batting average and the American League with a .840 OPS.
The big sluggers Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are producing as expected, but the most pleasant development of the early season has been red hot Austin Jackson. The Tigers center fielder has 10 hits and four extra base hits in 23 at bats plus five walks. They aren't flukey hits either - he is scorching the ball. It's way to early to reach conclusions, but if he is for real, he's going to be a dynamic lead-off man on top of a dangerous line-up. He has already scored nine runs. His new "no leg-kick" swing seems to be paying off.
It's also great to see Alex Avila come out of the gates strong. Many are predicting him to regress this year, but so far there are no signs of it. He has seven hits in 18 at bats including two homers, one of them a dramatic walk-off in game three.
Defensively, all eyes are on Cabrera at third base. After a rough first game, he has looked pretty smooth at the hot corner. If he is able to keep it up, that's going to plug a huge hole and prevent a situation where they have to figure out how to juggle Cabrera, Fielder and, at some point in the future, Victor Martinez.
On the negative side, second baseman/ outfielder Ryan Raburn is batting just .105 and not looking too sharp defensively at second. He could be quickly playing himself out of the starting line-up. Delmon Young is undisciplined as usual swinging at everything that moves, but that is to be expected. The disappointing part is he has not yet flashed the power he showed at the end of last year and in the playoffs. He really needs to hit the long ball consistently if he is going be useful.
While the offense has been mostly awesome, the pitching has been a bit unsettled. Justin Verlander has had two fantastic eight-inning performances before two adventurous ninth innings. The first one was closer Jose Valverde's fault while Verlander is to blame for the second one. Given that the Tigers ace typically struggles in April though, his start has been decidedly more encouraging than discouraging.
Beyond Verlander, there are a few areas of concern, The enigmatic Max Scherzer was shelled in his first outing before getting bailed out by the offense. Doug Fister was cruising along in his first start before straining a muscle in his side. It's not known how many starts he will miss, but it could be a tough loss for the Tigers if it lingers on for a while. Meanwhile , the bullpen has been generally shaky with Valverde the biggest source of anxiety so far.
One key pitcher who opened up about as well as could be expected is Rick Porcello. The 23-year old right-hander allowed just one run on seven hits and a walk in seven innings on Tuesday.
All in all, Tigers fans have to pretty pleased with the start of the season as they find themselves with the best record in the league and two tough series out of the way.
The Tigers were expected to have an explosive offense this year and they didn't disappoint in the opening week. They lead the majors with 6.7 runs per game and a .304 batting average and the American League with a .840 OPS.
The big sluggers Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are producing as expected, but the most pleasant development of the early season has been red hot Austin Jackson. The Tigers center fielder has 10 hits and four extra base hits in 23 at bats plus five walks. They aren't flukey hits either - he is scorching the ball. It's way to early to reach conclusions, but if he is for real, he's going to be a dynamic lead-off man on top of a dangerous line-up. He has already scored nine runs. His new "no leg-kick" swing seems to be paying off.
It's also great to see Alex Avila come out of the gates strong. Many are predicting him to regress this year, but so far there are no signs of it. He has seven hits in 18 at bats including two homers, one of them a dramatic walk-off in game three.
Defensively, all eyes are on Cabrera at third base. After a rough first game, he has looked pretty smooth at the hot corner. If he is able to keep it up, that's going to plug a huge hole and prevent a situation where they have to figure out how to juggle Cabrera, Fielder and, at some point in the future, Victor Martinez.
On the negative side, second baseman/ outfielder Ryan Raburn is batting just .105 and not looking too sharp defensively at second. He could be quickly playing himself out of the starting line-up. Delmon Young is undisciplined as usual swinging at everything that moves, but that is to be expected. The disappointing part is he has not yet flashed the power he showed at the end of last year and in the playoffs. He really needs to hit the long ball consistently if he is going be useful.
While the offense has been mostly awesome, the pitching has been a bit unsettled. Justin Verlander has had two fantastic eight-inning performances before two adventurous ninth innings. The first one was closer Jose Valverde's fault while Verlander is to blame for the second one. Given that the Tigers ace typically struggles in April though, his start has been decidedly more encouraging than discouraging.
Beyond Verlander, there are a few areas of concern, The enigmatic Max Scherzer was shelled in his first outing before getting bailed out by the offense. Doug Fister was cruising along in his first start before straining a muscle in his side. It's not known how many starts he will miss, but it could be a tough loss for the Tigers if it lingers on for a while. Meanwhile , the bullpen has been generally shaky with Valverde the biggest source of anxiety so far.
One key pitcher who opened up about as well as could be expected is Rick Porcello. The 23-year old right-hander allowed just one run on seven hits and a walk in seven innings on Tuesday.
All in all, Tigers fans have to pretty pleased with the start of the season as they find themselves with the best record in the league and two tough series out of the way.
Friday, March 02, 2012
Expanded Playoffs Poll Discussion
What do you think of the new expanded playoffs? Use the comment section of this post if you want to discuss your poll choice.
Sunday, February 05, 2012
Justin Verlander Wins Another One
On Friday, Scripps Howard asked a long list of celebrities to give their Super Bowl predictions. This was Justin Verlander's prediction:
JUSTIN VERLANDER, AL MVP, Cy Young Award winner, Detroit Tigers: New York, 21-17.The man can do no wrong.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
The Day I was Bumped by a Future Hall of Famer
I was going to write a dry statistical post about Jack Morris not belonging in the Hall of Fame, but there's enough of that going on. So, I'm going to tell my personal Jack Morris story instead. I'm not sure why I haven't told this story during my many years on the internet other than I don't usually like to tell personal stories on here.
In the Spring of 1988, my father and I made one of our frequent spring training trips to Florida. We stayed at the Tigers team hotel in Lakeland that particular year, so I figured I might catch a glimpse of some players. When we got there, I found out that most of the major leaguers had their own places and didn't stay at the hotel. So, I didn't see any players the first day, except of course at Joker Marchant Stadium.
The next night, we were in the hotel lobby when I heard a familiar voice. I knew it was Frank Beckman, who I had heard many times doing news and talk about the Tigers on WJR in Detroit. So, we took the opportunity to talk to Beckman for a few minutes. It was nothing deep, just some general light talk about the Tigers.
Beckman then had to leave to do some interviews down the hall. I asked if we could watch the interviews and he said it was OK. The first interview would be with Sparky Anderson. There were no seats left in the small interview room, so my father and I stayed in the hall and watched through the open door.
As I was standing there watching Anderson, I saw minor league catcher Chris Hoiles walk by. I only knew it was him because he had a tee shirt with "Hoiles" hand written on the back of it. While I didn't follow minor leaguers that closely back then, it was still pretty cool to see Hoiles in public. I was more interested in watching Sparky though.
Then I looked up and noticed somebody much more intriguing than Hoiles. The Jack Morris (who was next in line to be interviewed) was right next to me watching the interview too. Apparently, he was also more interested in Sparky than Hoiles. I'm not sure what Hoiles was doing there since he was never interviewed.
Soon a couple of other fans saw what was going on and timidly asked Morris for an autograph. Morris did not look thrilled, but he signed without complaint. As the fans left, Morris backed away and accidentally bumped into me. Yes, future Hall of Famer Jack Morris and I really did collide. He turned around, glared at me and mumbled "scuse me" (He probably wasn't really glaring but he always looks like he's glaring so I'll pretend he was). I mumbled "hi" and smiled nervously at the Tigers ace.
A few moments later, my father then asked Morris if he was ready for the interview. Morris turned around and glared at my father (This time I think he really was glaring) and said "Scuse me?". My father asked him again. Morris responded with "Are you kidding? I own Beckman. I'm going to chew him up.
Then none other than Alan Trammell walked in and Morris starting talking to him, probably relieved to get away from the Panases. Finally, it's time for Morris to go in for the interview. A few fans came over to get autographs from Trammell. You could sense that they were more comfortable with Trammell than Morris. One of them had me to take a picture of her and Trammell.
Trammell eventually went to chat with Sparky who had now left the interview room. Trammell said something about how tough it was for young players just starting out. Then Anderson gave a long rambling tale about something unrelated. What else would you expect from Anderson?
After a while, Morris came out of the interview room and Trammell asked him how it went. Morris said: "I gave Beckman some shit. Then I gave him a little more shit. Then I gave him all the shit." Morris knew there were fans around, but he was going to be his own brash self. It would have been disappointing if he wasn't.
In fact, the great thing about this little interview drama was that there was not a huge crowd around and I could watch players be themselves. There's plenty more to talk about from that interview session - like a glimpse into the secret lives of Willie Hernandez and Gary Pettis - but I'll save that for another time.
For now, I'll stop with future Hall of Famer Jack Morris.
In the Spring of 1988, my father and I made one of our frequent spring training trips to Florida. We stayed at the Tigers team hotel in Lakeland that particular year, so I figured I might catch a glimpse of some players. When we got there, I found out that most of the major leaguers had their own places and didn't stay at the hotel. So, I didn't see any players the first day, except of course at Joker Marchant Stadium.
The next night, we were in the hotel lobby when I heard a familiar voice. I knew it was Frank Beckman, who I had heard many times doing news and talk about the Tigers on WJR in Detroit. So, we took the opportunity to talk to Beckman for a few minutes. It was nothing deep, just some general light talk about the Tigers.
Beckman then had to leave to do some interviews down the hall. I asked if we could watch the interviews and he said it was OK. The first interview would be with Sparky Anderson. There were no seats left in the small interview room, so my father and I stayed in the hall and watched through the open door.
As I was standing there watching Anderson, I saw minor league catcher Chris Hoiles walk by. I only knew it was him because he had a tee shirt with "Hoiles" hand written on the back of it. While I didn't follow minor leaguers that closely back then, it was still pretty cool to see Hoiles in public. I was more interested in watching Sparky though.
Then I looked up and noticed somebody much more intriguing than Hoiles. The Jack Morris (who was next in line to be interviewed) was right next to me watching the interview too. Apparently, he was also more interested in Sparky than Hoiles. I'm not sure what Hoiles was doing there since he was never interviewed.
Soon a couple of other fans saw what was going on and timidly asked Morris for an autograph. Morris did not look thrilled, but he signed without complaint. As the fans left, Morris backed away and accidentally bumped into me. Yes, future Hall of Famer Jack Morris and I really did collide. He turned around, glared at me and mumbled "scuse me" (He probably wasn't really glaring but he always looks like he's glaring so I'll pretend he was). I mumbled "hi" and smiled nervously at the Tigers ace.
A few moments later, my father then asked Morris if he was ready for the interview. Morris turned around and glared at my father (This time I think he really was glaring) and said "Scuse me?". My father asked him again. Morris responded with "Are you kidding? I own Beckman. I'm going to chew him up.
Then none other than Alan Trammell walked in and Morris starting talking to him, probably relieved to get away from the Panases. Finally, it's time for Morris to go in for the interview. A few fans came over to get autographs from Trammell. You could sense that they were more comfortable with Trammell than Morris. One of them had me to take a picture of her and Trammell.
Trammell eventually went to chat with Sparky who had now left the interview room. Trammell said something about how tough it was for young players just starting out. Then Anderson gave a long rambling tale about something unrelated. What else would you expect from Anderson?
After a while, Morris came out of the interview room and Trammell asked him how it went. Morris said: "I gave Beckman some shit. Then I gave him a little more shit. Then I gave him all the shit." Morris knew there were fans around, but he was going to be his own brash self. It would have been disappointing if he wasn't.
In fact, the great thing about this little interview drama was that there was not a huge crowd around and I could watch players be themselves. There's plenty more to talk about from that interview session - like a glimpse into the secret lives of Willie Hernandez and Gary Pettis - but I'll save that for another time.
For now, I'll stop with future Hall of Famer Jack Morris.
Thursday, December 01, 2011
Open Post for Poll Comments
If you wish to comment on the above poll, please do so in this post. Which player do you most want the Tigers to get and why? I didn't include an "other" category in the poll, because there are all kinds of dream scenarios involving players I don't think they have a reasonable chance of acquiring. However, feel free to include any other players here.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
MLB Re-alignment Could Mean More Interleague Games
Several sources are now reporting that Major League Baseball will announce the sale of the Astros to businessman Jim Crane tomorrow. Why should Tigers fans care? All baseball fans should care because it means that the Astros will move from the National League Central Division to the American League West Division starting in 2013. This will allow for two fifteen-team leagues with six five team divisions rather than silly four-team AL West and six-team NL Central setup than has existed since 1998.
Another change will be be two wild cards in each league which will most likely meet in a one-game playoff to see who joins the three division winners in the divisional series. I don't know about this one. It seems absurd to play 162 games only to have the winner of the final playoff spot determined by a single game even if one team wins 10 more games in the regular season. The one positive is that division titles will become more meaningful since teams will do whatever they can to avoid a one-game playoff.
The other big change will be the schedule. With 15 teams in each league, they will probably have to have an interleague game every day. None of this is confirmed yet, but some Twitter rumblings (most recently by MLB.COM Astros writer Alyson Footer) suggest that there will be 30 interleague games for each team.
I think this means that the schedules will look like what Danny Knobler of CBSports detailed this summer. For the Tigers, that would mean:
18 games vs each AL Central Opponent = 72 games
6 games vs each team in AL East, AL West = 60 games
3 games vs each NL Central team = 15 games
3 games vs each team in NL East or NL West (rotating every other year) = 15 games
While I don't like expanded interleague play, I do like the logic and symmetry of this plan. I like the fact that every team within a division would have the same schedule. I also believe that the AL Central teams playing NL Central teams every year could create create some interesting rivalries.
While it's not radical re-alignment, this would be pretty big news for a league that is (thankfully) slow to make changes. I think we'll know all the details for sure within the next few days.
Another change will be be two wild cards in each league which will most likely meet in a one-game playoff to see who joins the three division winners in the divisional series. I don't know about this one. It seems absurd to play 162 games only to have the winner of the final playoff spot determined by a single game even if one team wins 10 more games in the regular season. The one positive is that division titles will become more meaningful since teams will do whatever they can to avoid a one-game playoff.
The other big change will be the schedule. With 15 teams in each league, they will probably have to have an interleague game every day. None of this is confirmed yet, but some Twitter rumblings (most recently by MLB.COM Astros writer Alyson Footer) suggest that there will be 30 interleague games for each team.
I think this means that the schedules will look like what Danny Knobler of CBSports detailed this summer. For the Tigers, that would mean:
18 games vs each AL Central Opponent = 72 games
6 games vs each team in AL East, AL West = 60 games
3 games vs each NL Central team = 15 games
3 games vs each team in NL East or NL West (rotating every other year) = 15 games
While I don't like expanded interleague play, I do like the logic and symmetry of this plan. I like the fact that every team within a division would have the same schedule. I also believe that the AL Central teams playing NL Central teams every year could create create some interesting rivalries.
While it's not radical re-alignment, this would be pretty big news for a league that is (thankfully) slow to make changes. I think we'll know all the details for sure within the next few days.
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Playoff Matchups Decided After Incredible Night of Baseball
What a night of baseball! I can't remember having so much fun watching baseball games that didn't involve the Tigers. The Tigers actually did play tonight beating the Indians 5-4 to finish the season 95-67. Shortly thereafter, The Rangers beat the Angels 3-1 on a two-run homer by Mike Napoli in the ninth to clinch the second seed in the playoffs. This means the Tigers will face the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. Game one will be at Yankee Stadium Friday night at 8:37 with Justin Verlander facing CC Sabathia.
The other American League match-up will be Tampa Bay versus the Rangers. In one of the most amazing comebacks of all time, the Rays defeated the Yankees 8-7 on a walk-off homer by Evan Longoria in the twelfth inning. The Rays were down 7-0 in the eighth but scored six in the bottom of the inning and eventually tied it on a pinch hit homer by Dan Johnson in the ninth.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox completed their historic collapse when Jonathan Pabelbon blew a save in the bottom of the ninth. The Orioles won 4-3 on a walk-off single by Robert Andino. The combination of the Ray win and the Red Sox loss gave the Rays the wildcard.
Finally, the Braves completed their own epic collapse losing to the Phillies 4-3 in 13 innings. Philadelphia scored a run in the ninth to tie the game and another in the 13th to win it. The Cardinals earlier beat the Astros 8-0 and captured the wildcard when the Braves lost. So, the two National League matchups are: Phillies versus Cardinals and Brewers versus Diamondbacks.
It was quite a night of baseball. It's going to be hard for the playoffs to top this in terms of baseball drama.
The other American League match-up will be Tampa Bay versus the Rangers. In one of the most amazing comebacks of all time, the Rays defeated the Yankees 8-7 on a walk-off homer by Evan Longoria in the twelfth inning. The Rays were down 7-0 in the eighth but scored six in the bottom of the inning and eventually tied it on a pinch hit homer by Dan Johnson in the ninth.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox completed their historic collapse when Jonathan Pabelbon blew a save in the bottom of the ninth. The Orioles won 4-3 on a walk-off single by Robert Andino. The combination of the Ray win and the Red Sox loss gave the Rays the wildcard.
Finally, the Braves completed their own epic collapse losing to the Phillies 4-3 in 13 innings. Philadelphia scored a run in the ninth to tie the game and another in the 13th to win it. The Cardinals earlier beat the Astros 8-0 and captured the wildcard when the Braves lost. So, the two National League matchups are: Phillies versus Cardinals and Brewers versus Diamondbacks.
It was quite a night of baseball. It's going to be hard for the playoffs to top this in terms of baseball drama.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Statistical Titles on the Line
Most of the attention regarding individual Tigers achievements has been focused on ace starter Justin Verlander. It's well known that he has a great chance to win the traditional pitching triple crown. He leads in Wins with 24 (not really an individual category but one which is getting a lot of ink regardless) and strikeouts (250). He also narrowly leads Angels right hander Jered Weaver in ERA 2.40 to 2.41, but Weaver has one game to go. In addition, Verlander leads in games started (34), innings pitched (251) and WHIP (0.92).
Verlander is not the only one racking up great stats for the Tigers though. Closer Jose Valverde leads with 47 saves without a blown save and 72 appearances. I doubt that Valverde will come close to winning an MVP, but note that one of the most important stated qualifications for the MVP is "games played".
There is a lot happening on the offensive side as well. Miguel Cabrera raised his batting average to .341 today to take the lead in the race for the coveted batting title. He has two competitors close on his heels as we enter the final three days of the season: Michael Young of the Rangers (.338) and Adrian Gonzalez of the Red Sox (.337).
The Tigers slugging first baseman is also just percentage points away from the lead in on base percentage. You need to go four decimal places to determine that Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays leads him .4770 to .4766.
As of yesterday, Bautista and Cabrera were tied at 67 in Batting Runs, one of my favorite statistical categories. This means that both hitters have contributed an estimated 67 runs beyond what an average hitter would have contributed in the same number of plate appearances. In my eyes, this makes Cabrera a solid MVP candidate.
Another category which may get Cabrera some MVP votes is games played. He is currently tied with Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki with 158 games played. As mentioned above, games played is a MVP criterion which is clearly presented to voters.
In a somewhat less significant category, Cabrera is tied for second with 46 doubles, one behind Royals outfielder Jeff Francoeur. Along the same lines, Austin Jackson leads the league with 11 triples. Peter Bourjos of the Angels and Curtis Granderson of the Yankees are tied for second with 10.
The most important thing to follow over the last few days is whether the Tigers can beat out the Rangers for home field advantage. However, the individual races listed above will be of interest as well.
Statistics for this post were abstracted from Baseball-Reference.
Verlander is not the only one racking up great stats for the Tigers though. Closer Jose Valverde leads with 47 saves without a blown save and 72 appearances. I doubt that Valverde will come close to winning an MVP, but note that one of the most important stated qualifications for the MVP is "games played".
There is a lot happening on the offensive side as well. Miguel Cabrera raised his batting average to .341 today to take the lead in the race for the coveted batting title. He has two competitors close on his heels as we enter the final three days of the season: Michael Young of the Rangers (.338) and Adrian Gonzalez of the Red Sox (.337).
The Tigers slugging first baseman is also just percentage points away from the lead in on base percentage. You need to go four decimal places to determine that Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays leads him .4770 to .4766.
As of yesterday, Bautista and Cabrera were tied at 67 in Batting Runs, one of my favorite statistical categories. This means that both hitters have contributed an estimated 67 runs beyond what an average hitter would have contributed in the same number of plate appearances. In my eyes, this makes Cabrera a solid MVP candidate.
Another category which may get Cabrera some MVP votes is games played. He is currently tied with Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki with 158 games played. As mentioned above, games played is a MVP criterion which is clearly presented to voters.
In a somewhat less significant category, Cabrera is tied for second with 46 doubles, one behind Royals outfielder Jeff Francoeur. Along the same lines, Austin Jackson leads the league with 11 triples. Peter Bourjos of the Angels and Curtis Granderson of the Yankees are tied for second with 10.
The most important thing to follow over the last few days is whether the Tigers can beat out the Rangers for home field advantage. However, the individual races listed above will be of interest as well.
Statistics for this post were abstracted from Baseball-Reference.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Tigers Open at Home Versus Red Sox in 2012
Major League Baseball has released its 2012 schedule and the Tigers will open at home versus the Red Sox for three games beginning on April 5. The six-game opening home stand also includes three games versus the Rays. The Tigers end the season with a three game series at Kansas City on October 1-3.
The Tigers will play mostly against the National League Central in inter-league play. For some reason they play the Pirates twice - once at Comerica and once at Pittsburgh. They also go to Cincinnati and Chicago and play at home versus the Rockies and Cardinals.
The tough part of their schedule is that the four inter-division opponents they play most often are traditionally playoff contenders - Boston, Los Angeles, New York and Texas. They play three series versus each of those teams. Meanwhile, they play just two series against Baltimore Oakland, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Toronto. The complete schedule can be found here.
The Tigers will play mostly against the National League Central in inter-league play. For some reason they play the Pirates twice - once at Comerica and once at Pittsburgh. They also go to Cincinnati and Chicago and play at home versus the Rockies and Cardinals.
The tough part of their schedule is that the four inter-division opponents they play most often are traditionally playoff contenders - Boston, Los Angeles, New York and Texas. They play three series versus each of those teams. Meanwhile, they play just two series against Baltimore Oakland, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Toronto. The complete schedule can be found here.
Thursday, September 01, 2011
Best Month Ever
As Tiger Tales approaches its sixth anniversary, it had its biggest month ever in August. There were a total of 8,111 visits and 11,340 page views for the month. Some sites get that many in one day, so it's not a big deal, but it's good to see that people are a little bit interested. I haven't done anything different lately, so I'm pretty sure the increase has more to do with the growing popularity of the Tigers as the pennant race heats up rather than anything I did. Anyway, thanks to everyone who keeps reading.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Reviews of Minor League Parks
For those of you who like visiting minor league parks, Paul Swaney has reviews of many of the parks at his Stadium Journey site. Most recently, he reviewed Jerry Uht Park - home of the Erie Sea Wolves, the Detroit Tigers Double-A affiliate. The site also has reviews of other Tiger affiliated parks:
Fifth Third Field (Toledo MudHens)
Joker Marchant Stadium Lakeland Tigers.
Fifth Third Park (West Michigan Whitecaps)
Fifth Third Field (Toledo MudHens)
Joker Marchant Stadium Lakeland Tigers.
Fifth Third Park (West Michigan Whitecaps)
Saturday, July 09, 2011
Tigers Lose to Brooklyn
I didn't see the Detroit Tigers game tonight, because I went to the Connecticut Tigers New York Penn League game instead. It sounds like I didn't miss much other than poor pitching and defense. Rookie Charlie Furbush allowed nine runs (four earned) on nine hits and the Tigers lost 13-6. Jim Leyland would not commit to keeping Furbush in the rotation for another start and the young left-hander was optioned to Toledo after the game, so he can continue to get regular work. Infielder Danny Worth has been recalled to take his place on the roster.
Anyway, my first trip to Dodd Stadium in Norwich, CT was a good one. It was a 100-mile drive, but it's probably the most stress free 100-mile drive in southern New England. There aren't a lot of those over here. There was very little traffic and the park was easy to find right off the highway.
With a seating capacity of about 6,000, Dodd Stadium is a typical minor league stadium. It was only about a third full, which is ideal for me. I don't like capacity crowds, but I like there to be enough fans to make it feel like a professional game. This game met that criterion. The weather was perfect for baseball - in the 70's and not too humid.
They had some silly races and such between innings to keep the kids and casual fans engaged, but they didn't over do it. They didn't overdo the loud music either which is a very good thing. I did have the VOICE in back of me - the loud guy that thinks he's funny, never stops talking and broadcasts his conversation to the whole crowd. Then there was the guy a few rows back who kept saying "swing batter batter batter" or however that movie phrase goes. Didn't that stop being funny 20 years ago? Was it ever funny? Those two people are at every game though and after a while I just block it out.
The Tigers played the Brooklyn Cyclones. Given that the Brooklyn Dodgers were such a storied MLB franchise, it's alsways amusing to see Brooklyn associated with a minor league team. The Tigers lost 3-2, but I don't worry too much about wins and losses in the minors.
It's hard to tell from just one game, but I can't say there were any players that jumped out at me as future major league talent. They do have some decent prospects like recently drafted outfielders Jason King and Chad Wright and 2010 eight rounder Pat Leyland. Yes, that is Jim Leyland's son and he's a catcher. They also had Colin Kaline - Al's grandson - playing second base. He is less of a prospect, but it was fun putting Kaline's name in the box score.
Anyway, it was a good night at the ballpark, so I'm glad I didn't stay home to watch the parent club. I'll be watching tomorrow when Justin Verlander takes the mound.
Anyway, my first trip to Dodd Stadium in Norwich, CT was a good one. It was a 100-mile drive, but it's probably the most stress free 100-mile drive in southern New England. There aren't a lot of those over here. There was very little traffic and the park was easy to find right off the highway.
With a seating capacity of about 6,000, Dodd Stadium is a typical minor league stadium. It was only about a third full, which is ideal for me. I don't like capacity crowds, but I like there to be enough fans to make it feel like a professional game. This game met that criterion. The weather was perfect for baseball - in the 70's and not too humid.
They had some silly races and such between innings to keep the kids and casual fans engaged, but they didn't over do it. They didn't overdo the loud music either which is a very good thing. I did have the VOICE in back of me - the loud guy that thinks he's funny, never stops talking and broadcasts his conversation to the whole crowd. Then there was the guy a few rows back who kept saying "swing batter batter batter" or however that movie phrase goes. Didn't that stop being funny 20 years ago? Was it ever funny? Those two people are at every game though and after a while I just block it out.
The Tigers played the Brooklyn Cyclones. Given that the Brooklyn Dodgers were such a storied MLB franchise, it's alsways amusing to see Brooklyn associated with a minor league team. The Tigers lost 3-2, but I don't worry too much about wins and losses in the minors.
It's hard to tell from just one game, but I can't say there were any players that jumped out at me as future major league talent. They do have some decent prospects like recently drafted outfielders Jason King and Chad Wright and 2010 eight rounder Pat Leyland. Yes, that is Jim Leyland's son and he's a catcher. They also had Colin Kaline - Al's grandson - playing second base. He is less of a prospect, but it was fun putting Kaline's name in the box score.
Anyway, it was a good night at the ballpark, so I'm glad I didn't stay home to watch the parent club. I'll be watching tomorrow when Justin Verlander takes the mound.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Leading the League in Triples and Homers
Curtis Granderson captivated Tigers fans with his quad twenty (20+ doubles, 20+ triples, 20+ homers and 20+ stolen bases) in 2007. He is one of only four players in the history of the game to accomplish that feat. I was looking at the American League batting leaders this morning and noticed that Granderson is currently tied for the league lead with six triples and is two behind Blue Jays masher Jose Bautista with 21 home runs.
One would think that not too many players would lead their league in both triples and home runs. After all, home run hitters are generally big sluggers and triples hitters are usually speedsters and this power/speed combination is a rare thing to find in one player. Perhaps more importantly, the spacious parks which are conducive to high numbers of triples are generally unfriendly to home runs.
So, I went to Baseball-Reference to see how many players have led the league in both triples and homers. As seen in Tables 1 and 2 below, it has been done just eight times - twice in the American League and six times in the National League. It might come to a surprise to some that the last hitter to reach this rare combo was Red Sox slugger Jim Rice in 1978. He led the American League with 46 homers and 15 triples that year. Some might not think of Rice as a a hitter who would get a lot of triples but he also had 15 in 1977 and 79 for his career.
Table 1: Players Who Led the American League in Both Triples and Homers
Table 2: Players Who Led the National League in Both Triples and Homers
Prior to Rice, Hall of Fame outfielders Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays led the American League and National League respectively in both categories in 1955. Because they both possessed great power and speed, Mantle and Mays are less surprising than Rice.
All the others on the list played before 1930 when triples were more plentiful and homers more rare and often inside the park. The least known name on the list even to those who follow the game's history closely is probably Brooklyn Superbas outfielder Harry Lumley. The Judge hit nine homers and 18 triples as a rookie in 1904.
Granderson is a long way from leading the league in anything this year. He is always a threat to lead the league in triples, but the home runs will be a little more difficult, even playing in cozy Yankee Stadium. If he continues to hit the long ball though, it will be an interesting item to follow.
One would think that not too many players would lead their league in both triples and home runs. After all, home run hitters are generally big sluggers and triples hitters are usually speedsters and this power/speed combination is a rare thing to find in one player. Perhaps more importantly, the spacious parks which are conducive to high numbers of triples are generally unfriendly to home runs.
So, I went to Baseball-Reference to see how many players have led the league in both triples and homers. As seen in Tables 1 and 2 below, it has been done just eight times - twice in the American League and six times in the National League. It might come to a surprise to some that the last hitter to reach this rare combo was Red Sox slugger Jim Rice in 1978. He led the American League with 46 homers and 15 triples that year. Some might not think of Rice as a a hitter who would get a lot of triples but he also had 15 in 1977 and 79 for his career.
Table 1: Players Who Led the American League in Both Triples and Homers
Year | Player | Team | HR | 3B |
1955 | Mickey Mantle | New York | 37 | 11 |
1978 | Jim Rice | Boston | 46 | 15 |
Table 2: Players Who Led the National League in Both Triples and Homers
Year | Player | Team | HR | 3B |
1880 | Harry Stovey | Worcester | 6 | 14 |
1891 | Harry Stovey | Boston | 16 | 20 |
1902 | Tommy Leach | Pittsburgh | 6 | 22 |
1904 | Harry Lumley | Brooklyn | 9 | 18 |
1928 | Jim Bottomley | St. Louis | 31 | 20 |
1955 | Willie Mays | New York | 51 | 13 |
Prior to Rice, Hall of Fame outfielders Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays led the American League and National League respectively in both categories in 1955. Because they both possessed great power and speed, Mantle and Mays are less surprising than Rice.
All the others on the list played before 1930 when triples were more plentiful and homers more rare and often inside the park. The least known name on the list even to those who follow the game's history closely is probably Brooklyn Superbas outfielder Harry Lumley. The Judge hit nine homers and 18 triples as a rookie in 1904.
Granderson is a long way from leading the league in anything this year. He is always a threat to lead the league in triples, but the home runs will be a little more difficult, even playing in cozy Yankee Stadium. If he continues to hit the long ball though, it will be an interesting item to follow.
Monday, May 30, 2011
A Front Line Soldier in World War II
I'm not sure where I first acquired my interest in statistics and analysis, but I inherited my love of baseball from my father. He is a huge baseball fan who watches all the Cardinal games on Extra Innings. He is currently puzzled by the slow start of slugger Albert Pujols, but also enjoying his team's position atop the National League Central Division.
This blog post is going to be about something much more important than baseball though. My father, who recently turned 87 years old, was a soldier during World War II. This means that he was on the front lines fighting the enemy head on as a teenager. As you can imagine, he has many strong memories - both good and bad - of his army experience. His experiences have affected the rest of his life and he is very proud of his service as he should be. Today, he shares one of his most vivid memories on Tiger Tales.
On January 20th, 1944 during World War II, the 36th Infantry Division of the United States Army was ordered to cross the Rapido River in Central Italy. The Germans had made the river an integral part of their defense of the Liri Valley and the area was aggressively guarded. This made the crossing a bold and controversial move and resulted in one of the bloodiest battles of the war. In fact, over 2,000 men of the 36th Division were killed, wounded or missing in just 48 hours. My father is one of the survivors of the crossing and he relates his story below.
As soldiers in World War II, we carried small spades on our pack used to dig our fox-holes. A fox-hole was made as large and deep as the situation called for. If we expected to receive mortar or artillery barrages, we dug them deep. If we expected to move forward, we made them shallow or ignored them altogether, instead taking shelter behind large rocks, tree stumps or natural defiliations. In the case of the Rapido River Crossing, it was clear that we needed deep holes.
The ground leading to the Rapido River had a lot of clay which made digging awkward and difficult. The spade dug up the clay in clumps that stuck to it. When artillery shells burst, we lay alongside our holes, but continued digging more rapidly. I recall digging many hours to excavate a hole large enough to contain my crouching figure. There I was, ensconced in my new home, wet, cold and matted with Italian red clay and mud waiting for a signal to attack.
Suddenly, it seemed that every artillery gun in Italy opened up to send a barrage on the German defenses along the river. Artillery sounds pretty much as they do in the popular war movies. This broadside was laid on the enemy and we felt good listening to it. The guns roared for about thirty minutes and then our tanks took over the fire. They came from our rear and sounded thunderous but tinny. The tanks stopped and then our heavy mortars and machine guns peppered the river area. I thought, “Dear God. They’re working it down to rifle fire and that means ME!”
The enemy return fire was not as heavy as ours at first, but it was all aimed in my direction. The Germans had mortars (Nebelwerfers) that let out screeching sounds as they wended their way to our positions. The sounds had a paralyzing affect on me and I was truly scared. The only other time I had experienced such deep fear was when I saw the movie “Frankenstein” at the Royal Theatre in Lowell, MA as an eight-year old and had to run home through dark Cummiskey Alley.
The Germans followed the mortar shelling with a continuous volley of their notorious eighty-eights. This firing was accurate and shells burst closer to my hole. Eventually, the firing let up and I sensed that the time for the infantry attack had arrived.
Someone approached my hole to tell me to follow him to an assembly area. I now felt a fondness for my fox-hole asylum of the past twenty-four hours and reluctantly left it to gather in an open area with other members of Company “G”. The fog and the dark of the night made the figures look phantom-like. Somehow, we were lined in single file and proceeded to shuffle orderly through olive groves and down towards the river.
The Germans had fortified the river area with personnel mines and barbed wire. They zeroed artillery, mortar and machine gun fire at likely strategic crossing areas and they did their firing from secure and safe bunkers. That night, they heard the sounds of the American Infantry and they opened up with all their guns.
The very early morning was filled with gun fire, flashes of light and the groaning screaming meemies. We were told to advance with fixed bayonets and to follow the shadowy figure in front. Things went well at first until casualties disrupted our lines and the frantic confused sounds of young infantrymen became more personal than the obscure sounds of guns. I saw the shadowy figures fall and cry out in pain and surprise. One soldier close to me was hit in the neck area and I saw blood gushing out.
Despite the horror and confusion, we all moved forward until we could see the river just a few yards ahead. Somewhere, there were smoke pots designed to obscure the enemy’s vision, but they affected my sight as well. I still vividly recall the smells of the river and of fresh grass and the clammy feeling of the morning dew. My private thoughts and feelings were overwhelmingly numbed by the sounds and reality of combat.
When we reached the river, I scrambled onto a wooden boat along with ten or so infantrymen and paddled to the other side in less than a minute. At times, the enemy fire was directed towards us and at other times it moved upstream in assault of others. It got so we anticipated our turn under extreme fire and we took what cover was available.
On the other side of the river, we crawled up the embankment and moved towards the town of San Angelo. The command was for us to dig in because the fog had lifted and the morning light was beginning to show. I went through my fox-hole digging routine and was able to excavate a hole large enough to hide my body from flying shrapnel.
Lying there with little to do until the next command, I felt alone with the non-stop sounds of combat assailing my senses. However, my tired and confused mind cleared enough to make personal observations. I envisioned a mud-coated teenager curled up in the depressed ground. I saw the grass at ground level and small pieces of sticks and pebbles in the moist soil. I don’t recall the sun, but I think there was a blue sky when the mist and smoke dissipated.
During one silent interruption in combat, I could hear a young voice in the distance. The voice was sobbing and crying out for his mother. Beyond were more muffled sounds of digging and garbled obscenities. Still, I felt secure for the moment in the realization that there was one chance in a million a shell would fall directly in the hole.
The guns on both sides pounded the area for several hours. Enemy mortars and machine guns strafed us making movement dangerous and imprudent. I knew that many American soldiers were being killed and wounded and I prayed I would not join their ranks.
Suddenly, the din of combat came to a complete halt and we got an order to leave our holes and to return across the river back to our original point of departure. We rushed to the river and crossed a Bailey bridge our engineers had constructed. Strangely, our movements were not picked up and we returned without serious hindrance to the now friendly and secure foxholes of the night before the crossing.
Saturday, May 07, 2011
Is Brandon Inge All Done?
The Tigers surprised a few people when they signed third baseman Brandon Inge to a two-year $11.5 million contract after last season. One could reason that there wasn't much available outside the organization, so that signing him for another year might have been the best option. It also made sense from a public relations standpoint to keep the popular and civil-minded Inge for another year. Many wondered though whether it was really necessary to sign the soon to be 34-year-old .236 lifetime hitter with declining defensive skills for two more years.
This year's slow start is causing fans to question the move some more. Inge is currently batting .202 with just one homer and a woefully low .298 slugging average. Is this it for Inge? Is this what we're going to see all year?
I wouldn't worry too much about the batting average. Batting average is a volatile statistic and he's never hit for a high average anyway. According to the FanGraphs database, he has struck out in 27% of his at bats which is awful, but not much different from his 26% lifetime rate. On the plus side, 19.2% of his batted balls have resulted in line drives which is higher than his 17.7% lifetime rate. So, he has been a little unlucky perhaps, but it doesn't appear as if he has lost anything it terms of making solid contact.
His lack of power stands out a little more than his batting average because were are used to seeing a little pop from the third sacker. He has only one homer in 104 at bats, but he does have seven doubles. He is actually hitting fly balls at a higher rate than usual (46% this year versus 43% lifetime), so why isn't he hitting more home runs? The reason is because he has hit homers on only 2.8% of his fly balls which is way down from his 8.3% career rate. The first thought might be that he's not hitting the ball as hard this year, but don't forget the elevated line drive rate. The home runs should come, maybe not 27 like he hit in 2009 but his typical 12-15.
One noticeable difference in Inge this year is that he is more aggressive at the plate, swinging more often earlier in the count. Aggressiveness is not necessarily a bad thing. Batters should swing at pitches they can hit, but patience can also be a virtue especially for a hitter that doesn't make a lot of contact. After averaging 4.1 pitches per plate appearance in 2009-2010, Inge is down to 3.8 this year. The result has been fewer walks. He has walked in just 6.1% of his plate appearances this year which is down from 8.8 in 2009-2010. Since his more aggressive approach has not resulted in more hits, a reversion back to a more patient style seems like a good idea.
The biggest concern might be Inge's fielding. Just based on observation, the once stellar defender seems to have lost a step or two. He does not appear to be making the plays he did in the past and the advanced fielding statistics agree. Taking the average of his Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Total Zone (TZ), three statistics which can be found at FanGraphs, give us an estimate of how many runs he is worth with his fielding. According to this aggregate number, Inge's defense has been on the decline for a few years.
Inge saved the Tigers an estimated 20 runs with his fielding compared to the average third baseman in 2006-2007 when he was in his defensive prime. In 2008-2009, that number dropped to four runs. Since the beginning of last year, he is just one run above average. While these defensive measures are far from perfect, they suggest that what many are seeing is true - that Inge is no longer a plus fielder at third. It appears that he is only an average fielder now.
So, is Inge all done? Not quite. I think his hitting will bounce back to his career norms, as mediocre as those may be. However, with his decline in fielding, he is no longer a real asset to a team that is trying to contend for a division title.
Will the Tigers replace Inge? One possibility would be to recall Danny Worth or Cale Iorg from Toledo to play shortstop and to move Jhonny Peralta to third. That won't help their offense, but might help them a little defensively. Still, it appears unlikely that they would eat almost two years of salary without an obvious replacement available.
Another option is to trade for a third baseman or shortstop, but that's much easier said than done. Those are two positions which are thin around MLB right now and it would cost a lot in terms of prospects to get a significant upgrade. Thus, I think we are stuck with Inge for the time being. Hopefully, he'll emerge from his early season slump and put up some numbers that are a little more tolerable.
This year's slow start is causing fans to question the move some more. Inge is currently batting .202 with just one homer and a woefully low .298 slugging average. Is this it for Inge? Is this what we're going to see all year?
I wouldn't worry too much about the batting average. Batting average is a volatile statistic and he's never hit for a high average anyway. According to the FanGraphs database, he has struck out in 27% of his at bats which is awful, but not much different from his 26% lifetime rate. On the plus side, 19.2% of his batted balls have resulted in line drives which is higher than his 17.7% lifetime rate. So, he has been a little unlucky perhaps, but it doesn't appear as if he has lost anything it terms of making solid contact.
His lack of power stands out a little more than his batting average because were are used to seeing a little pop from the third sacker. He has only one homer in 104 at bats, but he does have seven doubles. He is actually hitting fly balls at a higher rate than usual (46% this year versus 43% lifetime), so why isn't he hitting more home runs? The reason is because he has hit homers on only 2.8% of his fly balls which is way down from his 8.3% career rate. The first thought might be that he's not hitting the ball as hard this year, but don't forget the elevated line drive rate. The home runs should come, maybe not 27 like he hit in 2009 but his typical 12-15.
One noticeable difference in Inge this year is that he is more aggressive at the plate, swinging more often earlier in the count. Aggressiveness is not necessarily a bad thing. Batters should swing at pitches they can hit, but patience can also be a virtue especially for a hitter that doesn't make a lot of contact. After averaging 4.1 pitches per plate appearance in 2009-2010, Inge is down to 3.8 this year. The result has been fewer walks. He has walked in just 6.1% of his plate appearances this year which is down from 8.8 in 2009-2010. Since his more aggressive approach has not resulted in more hits, a reversion back to a more patient style seems like a good idea.
The biggest concern might be Inge's fielding. Just based on observation, the once stellar defender seems to have lost a step or two. He does not appear to be making the plays he did in the past and the advanced fielding statistics agree. Taking the average of his Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Total Zone (TZ), three statistics which can be found at FanGraphs, give us an estimate of how many runs he is worth with his fielding. According to this aggregate number, Inge's defense has been on the decline for a few years.
Inge saved the Tigers an estimated 20 runs with his fielding compared to the average third baseman in 2006-2007 when he was in his defensive prime. In 2008-2009, that number dropped to four runs. Since the beginning of last year, he is just one run above average. While these defensive measures are far from perfect, they suggest that what many are seeing is true - that Inge is no longer a plus fielder at third. It appears that he is only an average fielder now.
So, is Inge all done? Not quite. I think his hitting will bounce back to his career norms, as mediocre as those may be. However, with his decline in fielding, he is no longer a real asset to a team that is trying to contend for a division title.
Will the Tigers replace Inge? One possibility would be to recall Danny Worth or Cale Iorg from Toledo to play shortstop and to move Jhonny Peralta to third. That won't help their offense, but might help them a little defensively. Still, it appears unlikely that they would eat almost two years of salary without an obvious replacement available.
Another option is to trade for a third baseman or shortstop, but that's much easier said than done. Those are two positions which are thin around MLB right now and it would cost a lot in terms of prospects to get a significant upgrade. Thus, I think we are stuck with Inge for the time being. Hopefully, he'll emerge from his early season slump and put up some numbers that are a little more tolerable.
Friday, April 01, 2011
Best Month Ever
According to StatCounter, Tiger Tales had 7,655 unique visitors in March, which was the highest monthly total in my seven years of blogging. That's not a huge number. Some blogs get more than that every day, but it's still good to see that I'm reaching a little bit wider audience. I haven't done anything different lately, but have gotten a boost from links posted at bigger sites like MLive (Ian Casselberry) and Bless You Boys (Kurt Mensching). That combined with the fact that baseball interest generally peaks at this time of year has created a record amount of traffic. Thanks to everyone who takes the time read my blog.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Intense Debate
I have just added some new software called Disqus to my blog which is supposed to make commenting easier. I don't know how well it works yet. Try it out and let me know what you think.
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