Ron Leflore: The Best Tigers Baserunner of the Modern Era

Outfielder Ron Leflore ran the bases for the Tigers between 1974-1979 (photo credit: CardboardGods.net)

The Tigers did not have a great deal of success in the 1970s, but they had some interesting characters such as Mark "The Bird" Fidrych, John Hiller and manager Billy Martin.  One of the most intriguing players of the period was center fielder Ron Leflore.  He was originally scouted by the Tigers at a maximum-security prison where he was serving time for armed robbery.  He eventually went on to have a successful nine-year career with the Tigers, Expos and White Sox between 1974-1982.

Leflore had never played baseball until he joined a prison team in 1971, but he had a natural talent for the game.  A fellow prisoner with connections to Martin was able to get the Tigers to give Leflore a try out.  Leflore showcased his skills at Tiger Stadium while on furlough in June, 1973 and the Tigers were quite impressed.  After being released on parole in July, he joined the Clinton Pilots, the Tigers Single-A affiliate in the Midwest League.

It took just one year for the speedy outfielder to reach the majors as he joined the Tigers in August, 1974 at age 26.  He immediately held his own as the Tigers lead-off hitter and center fielder and developed into one of the team's best hitters by 1976.  Between 1976-1979, he batted .310 with a 117 OPS+ and 243 stolen bases.    

Leflore was adept at pilfering bases, but there is more to baserunning than stolen base totals.  For example, a good baserunner will go from first to third on a single or advance from second to third on a fly ball more often than a poor baserunner. Thanks to databases such as that at Retrosheet.org, those types of events are now tracked regularly.

 One of the most advanced baserunning metrics is BaseRunning Runs (BRR) found at at Baseball Prospectus.  Developed by former Baseball Prospectus writer and current MLB team statistician Dan Fox, the BRR metric takes into account several types of base-running advancement. A complex algorithm estimates the number of runs which a player contributed to his team above what you would expect from an average baserunner.  An introduction to the statistic can be found here.

The Tigers BRR leaders between 1950-2011are shown in Table 1 below.  The statistic is not available prior to that time as play-by-play data are incomplete.  If data were tracked for earlier years, you would guess that the legendary Cobb would have appeared near the top of the list at least once.  Ron Leflore was clearly the leader of the modern era Tigers though taking the top three spots on the table: 13.7 in 1978, 11.7 in 1979 and 10.5 in 1977.  He also led the majors in BRR those seasons and his 1978 total was the seventh highest since 1950.

Table 1: Tigers Single-season Base Running Runs Leaders, 1950-2011

Player	Year	BRR
Ron Leflore	1978	13.7*
Ron Leflore	1979	11.7*
Ron Leflore	1976	10.5*
Milt Cuyler	1991	8.6
Brian Hunter	1997	7.8
Lou Whitaker	1979	7.4
Mickey Stanley	1968	6.1
Gary Pettis	1989	5.8
Billy Bruton	1961	5.8
Al kaline	1967	5.7
Jake Wood	1961	5.6
Ron Leflore	1974	5.4
Curtis Granderson	2008	5.4
Roger Cedeno	2001	5.3
Damion Easley	1997	5.3

*Denotes MLB leader 
 Data source: BaseballProspectus.com

Austin Jackson Among AL Baserunning Leaders

For most of baseball history, baserunning has been measured by stolen bases and caught stealing.  Fans and analysts have complained for a long time that there is more to baserunning than stealing bases and that the impact of baserunning has not been measured adequately.  For example, a good baserunner will go from first to third on a single or advance from second to third on a fly ball more often than a poor baserunner. 

With the development of play-by-play databases such as Retrosheet, it is now possible to measure baserunning beyond stolen bases.  The most advanced baserunning metric is Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EQBRR) found at at Baseball Prospectus.  Developed by former Baseball Prospectus writer and current MLB team statistician Dan Fox, EQBRR takes into account the following types of baserunner advancement:

(1) Ground outs (e.g. Runner is on first base with other bases unoccupied and less than two outs and then advances to second on a ground out)

(2) Air outs  (e.g. Runner is on second base with third  base unoccupied and less than two outs and then advances to third on a fly out)

(3) Stolen bases, caught stealing and pickoffs.

(4) Hits (Runner goes from first to third on a single, second to home on a single or first to home on a double)

(5) Other  (passed balls, wild pitches, balks)

A complex algorithm takes all of the above into consideration in estimating the number of runs which a player contributed to his team above what you would expect from an average baserunner.  For those who are interested in the details, the methodology can be found here, here and here. 

The top baserunners in the American League according to EQBRR in 2010 are listed below:

Chone Figgins, Sea 5.9
Elvis Andrus, Tex 5.9
Carl Crawford, TB 5.4
Ben Zobrist, TB 3.6
Brett Gardner, NYA 3.6
Austin Jackson, Det 2.8

Austin Jackson is sixth in the league with an EQBRR of 2.8.  This means that he has contributed an estimated 2.8 runs above what the average baserunner would have contributed given the same opportunities. A player's baserunning contribution is generally a lot less than his hitting contribution but some players actually do make a significant impact with their baserunning and it should be considered in determining their overall offensive value.

The EQBRRs for all Tigers with 100 or more opportunities for base advancement are listed below:

Austin Jackson +2.8
Johnny Damon +2.0
Magglio Ordonez +1.2
Gerald Laird +0.2
Ramon Santiago -0.4
Brandon Inge -0.6
Brennan Boesch -1.2
Miguel Cabrera -1.6
Carlos Guillen -1.7

The biggest surprise on the list might be Ordonez at +1.2.  Magglio is not known for his speed on the bases.  This result is probably just a fluke as he is usually below average on this statistic.

As a team, the Tigers rank third in the league:

Tampa Bay 6.6
Texas 6.4
Detroit 1.3

Which team is last in the league?  Mike Scioscia's aggressive Angels are 12.4 runs below average. That just goes to show that aggressive baserunning only works when you've got runners who have the ability to execute.