I think most readers of this blog understand the problems with using fielding percentage as a measure of individual or team defense, but I still see a lot of people using it in various places (e.g. television broadcasts and message boards). So, I’ll review its limitations before moving on to better measures. First, fielding percentage is the proportion of a team’s total chances (putouts, assists and errors) which result in either a putout or an assist. The Tigers currently have a .982 fielding percentage which means they have avoided errors on 98.2% of their chances. That ranks them 19th in the majors.
One issue with fielding percentage is that error totals can be influenced by the subjectivity of official scorers. An official scorer might occasionally give the home team’s fielders and hitters the benefit of the doubt by awarding hits on plays that might be called errors by another scorer. Over the course of a season, this could influence a team’s fielding percentage.
Even if we assume that there is no scorer bias and that all scorers judge plays the same way, fielding percentage is still fundamentally flawed. The problem is that it only penalizes fielders for errors made and does not charge them for balls that they can not reach. It tells us nothing about the amount of ground covered by players and does not consider the difficulty of plays made or not made.
When Bill James introduced the defensive efficiency ratio (DER) statistic in the 1978 Baseball Abstract, it was the first time team defense had been formerly quantified in terms of range instead of errors. DER is the proportion of batted balls in play, not including home runs, which are converted to outs by a team’s fielders. For example, the Tigers have a .688 DER this year which means they have turned 68.8% of balls in play into outs.
The Tigers are 19th in the majors in DER which matches the fielding percentage rank. However, some teams rank quite differently on the two statistics. The Oakland Athletics, for example, are first in DER, but only 13th in fielding percentage. On the other hand, The Astros rank 29th in DER but 14th in fielding percentage. So, the Athletics are a much better fielding team than the Astros, but fielding percentage makes them look like equals.
DER is limited because it does not consider factors such as types of batted balls allowed by the team’s pitchers (e.g. ground balls, fly balls), location of batted balls, how hard the ball was hit, handedness of pitcher and batter, and home ballpark. The Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) statistic introduced by Mitchel Lichtman in 2003 further refines the measurement of fielding by considering all those factors. The Tigers have a UZR of +8.5 which means they have saved 8.5 runs compared to what you’d expect from the average team.
The Tigers rank 10th in MLB in UZR, but that’s a little deceptive as UZR does not include pitchers and the the Tigers pitchers have not fielded very well this year. A similar statistic which does include pitchers is Defensive Runs Saved or DRS (John Dewan, The Fielding Bible – Volume II). The Tigers have a DRS of +2 with places them 19th in the majors. The Tigers pitchers have a combined DRS of –14 which means they cost their team 14 runs versus what you’d expect from an average team. Poor fielding by pitchers is why the Tigers ranks worse on DRS than UZR.
The Tigers ranked 9th in DER, 8th in UZR and 7th in DRS in 2009. So, their fielding is clearly not as good this year as it was last year. Their DRS in 2009 was +40, so, according to that measure, Tigers fielders have cost their team 38 more runs this year over last year. Since, 10 extra runs is worth approximately one win, we can say that their defense is four wins worse this year.
Yesterday, we saw that run scoring in Major League Baseball has sharply decreased since 2000 and that runs per game in the American League has returned to early 1990s levels. Today, we’ll explore trends in statistics that contribute to runs scoring. For the sake of simplicity, we will consider Major League Baseball as a whole, rather than divide into leagues. As shown in Figure 1, the Home runs per game in MLB have dropped from a peak of 1.17 in 2000 to 0.95 in 2010, a decreased of 19%. That is a significant drop in ten years and the result is a more balanced game. The home run rate in 2010 was the lowest since 0.89 in 1993.
Batting average (Figure 2) has also been on the decline, but not as dramatically as home runs. The .259 batting average in 2010 is about 4% lower than the .270 mark in 2000. The last time the MLB batting average was below .260 was in 1992 when batters hit a combined .256.  In Figure 3, we see that bases on balls don’t have the same trend as homers and batting average. After soaring to 3.68 in 1999 and 3.75 in 2000, walks per game have remained fairly steady between 2001-2010. It’s possible that the spike in 1999-2000 was an over reaction to the high homer totals in those years. 
The most interesting trend shows up in Figure 4. While batting average and homeruns have been going down, strikeouts have been increasing. In fact, the 6.97 strikeouts per game in 2010 is the highest rate in history. Strikeouts have been generally rising since 1978 when there were 4.77 per game. That 46% increase between 1978-2010 is huge. I think it shows the ever growing emphasis on power hitting and power pitching. You would think that as homers become more scarce, we would see more of a contact approach to both pitching and hitting but this hasn’t happened for four decades. 
You probably noticed that the Tigers are not scoring a lot of runs in 2010. Indeed, they are averaging just 4.34 runs per game (RPG). However, there are a lot of teams not scoring runs this year. A total of five teams in the American League have scored fewer runs than the Tigers and the league average is only 4.47 RPG. That is down 7.3% from 2009 when the league averaged 4.82 runs.
While there is year to year variation, the chart below shows that there has been a general downward trend in run scoring over the past decade. AL offense is down 10.0% from from 2006 (4.97 RPG) and 15.7% from the height of the home run derby era in 2000 (5.30 RPG).
Offense is also declining in the National League but not by quite as much. There have been 4.36 runs per game in the NL this year which is not much different from the 4.43 RPG in 2009. Over time, run production in the senior circuit is down 8.4% since 2006 (4.76 RPG) and 12.8% since 2000 (5.00 RPG).
 The reason for the sharper decline in AL could just be random variation, In other words, it could just be a down year for offense in the AL. It will take a couple more years to see if the offensive output of the two leagues has really become that close. If it is a real trend, one explanation might be that AL teams are trying to keep up with the The Yankees by emphasizing defense, which has become cheaper than offense in recent years. Regardless of any differences between the leagues, it is clear that the we have come a long way since the crazy offense of ten years ago. In fact, fewer runs have scored in 2010 than any year since 1992 (4.32 RPG in the AL and 3.88 in the NL). What we have today is a more balanced game between run scoring and run prevention than we had in 2000. I believe this makes for a more entertaining game with a greater variety of teams and types of players.
Armando Galarraga faced the Indians tonight for the first time since his famous imperfect game on June 2. He started off right where he left off retiring the first 14 batters he faced. That made it 42 straight Indians set down by Galarraga. After Brandon Inge made an outstanding play on a smash to the left side to retire Shelley Duncan for out number 14, you had to start wondering whether this might be another special night for Armando. The streak came to an end though when Jayson Nix hit a double just off the outstretched glove of Don Kelly in deep left. Galarraga was outstanding in pitching seven scoreless innings. In fact it was one of his best games of his career. He allowed just three hits, walked nobody and tied a career high with eight strikeouts. Was it something that Alex Avila said? We'll never know what kind of an effect the dugout spat with Avila had on Galarraga but he He was certainly pitching into the zone more aggressively than he has in many past games. Gerald Laird was the catcher in today's game by the way. It was an easy win tonight, something that hasn't happened very often this year even when they were winning in the first half. Donald Kelly had four hits and Brandon Inge and Austin Jackson three apiece to pace a 16 hit attack. The only Tiger without a hit was Johnny Damon. The Tigers are finally done with their long stretch of games versus the top teams in the league. They failed miserably during that time. Hopefully, they can now finish the season in somewhat respectable fashion against an easier schedule.
On July 21-22, the Tigers beat the Rangers and Blue Jay's in consecutive games and were just two games behind the first place Chicago White Sox. It took them more than three weeks to win back-to-back games again. After beating the White Sox 3-2 on a two-run homer in the ninth by Alex Avila last night, the Tigers out slugged the Sox 13-8 this afternoon. The wins leave the Tigers in third place 10 1/2 games behind the Twins. It was a seesaw game today which saw the Tigers jump out to an early 5-1 lead, fall behind 7-5, and then come back to win it. The weak hitting Tigers erupted for 16 hits including eight extra-base hits today. Jhonny Peralta hit a pair of homers and Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Raburn had one apiece. Johhny Damon also had a big day belting a double and a triple. Raburn heating up Ryan Raburn has claimed the regular left field job with some hot hitting this month. After a disappointing first half of the season, he has finally found his stroke. Raburn has batted .327/.277/.694 in 14 games this month. This is the second straight season he has hit well late in the season after a disappointing start. The key may be that the injury to Magglio Ordonez has given Raburn more consistent playing time.
I generally don't like it when fans talk about the season being over in July or August. It's particularly annoying when that sentiment is expressed when the team is two or three games out of first as the Tigers were until recently. After all, things can turn around fast and unexpectedly in baseball. I'm not one to ever give up while the Tigers are still mathematically in contention, but realistically they have little chance of getting back into the race this year. Now ten games behind the White Sox and 8 1/2 behind the second place Twins, it's time to start thinking about 2011 at least a little bit. So, today, I'll take a position by position look at which players might be back next year. CatcherGerald Laird has been very disappointing this year to say the least. He is batting .185 with little power and even has defense has declined. He is on the last year of his contract and I don't expect him back next year. Alex Avila has also been a disappointment, although he might have been rushed in an effort to add a left-handed bat to the team. I still think the Tigers view him as the catcher of the future though and he should be back next year. They will likely get a veteran catcher to split time with Avila. First baseThere's much to talk about here. Miguel Cabrera be back for at least the next five years Second baseRight now, Carlos Guillen, Will Rhymes and Scott Sizemore are potential second basemen for 2011. Sizemore has been slowed by injuries (ankle and hip) this year and has likely never been fully healthy all season. He has hit well at triple-A but not in the majors. Assuming they don't get a replacement outside the organization, Sizemore is probably the favorite to win the position next year, but he won't be guaranteed a starting job as he was last spring. Given his health history, they certainly can't count on Guillen to be the regular second baseman. There is a chance they might eat the final year of his contract but I think he'll return as a designated hitter and back up second baseman. Jim Leyland likes the scrappy Rhymes but I think his ultimate role will be backup infielder. Third baseBrandon Inge is in the final year of his contract and Jhonny Peralta is in his final guaranteed year. There is little chance that the Tigers will exercice Peralta's $ 7 million option. They may try to bring him back at a reduced salary, but I think there is a better chance that they re-sign Inge. Although his range has declined since he hurt his knees last year, Inge is still the superior fielder and there is not much difference between the two offensively. ShortstopPeralta is playing shortstop at the moment, but is not a good defender at that position so I doubt he's a real option there for next year. Danny Worth is a strong defender but I don't know if he'll hit well enough to be a regular. The Tigers have long believed that Ramon Santiago does not have the durability to be a regular so, he'll continue as a backup and a very good one. I suspect, they will push hard to obtain a shortstop in a trade. Right fieldUntil recently, Brennan Boesch was once the most appealing option in right field but it's hard to know what to make of a player who hit like Vladimir Guerrero in the first half and a double-A hitter since the all-star break. Whether or not he can make the adjustments down the stretch will determine whether he'll go into next season as a starting corner outfielder. They certainly need a young left-handed hitter badly, so he'll be one of the players to watch the rest of the season. The injury to Magglio Ordonez means that his $15 million option for 2011 will not automatically vest. They may try to sign him at a lower salary but, given that his agent is Scott Boras, that won't happen easily. He'll probably be a late off-season signing and there is a good season the Tiger swill be heavily involved in that drama. How hard they'll push may depend on Boesch. Center fieldAustin Jackson has been one of the few consistent bright spots this season and should be the starting center fielder for years to come. Left fieldJohnny Damon is finishing a one year deal and probably won't be a top priority in the off-season. It's not that he has been bad, but he'll be 37 next year and the market for 37-year-old designated hitters is not strong. I think the Tigers will try hard to obtain a left-handed corner outfielder from outside the organization.
Self promotion is one of the necessary evils of a self published book, so I'm going to post another review of my book Beyond Batting Average. This time, Charles Euchner, author of Nine Innings and other books was kind enough to say a few words. Here is what he had to say: Mathematicians see beauty and truth in numbers. They see an inner logic, a simplicity that captures life's ineffable complexity. Baseball fans have always loved numbers too. As a kid -- before ESPN and regional sports networks -- I remember studying the box scores to recreate the previous day's games. (I wish box scores still abbreviated the long names of players like this: "Ystrzski.") But the PC and the Internet have brought baseball statistics to a sublime new height, which makes my youthful number-gazing seem as sophisticated as Hop On Pop. In Beyond Batting Average, Lee Panas brings baseball's bold new world of statistical analysis to life. He is comprehensive, clear, and even clever. He examines every aspect of the game -- hitting, pitching, fielding, special situations, team-building -- with fairness and enthusiasm. The task is not simple, because statistics can lie as well as reveal hidden truths. Like other serious baseball people, Panas is on a mission, to find baseball's digital version of the Holy Grail. But he also understands that the game changes constantly, so that Grail will forever elude our reach. Change and constancy, of course, are two values we baseball fans embrace. Let's all get up and give Lee Panas a wave around the stadium (I know some purists loathe waves, but I love 'em) for his all-star effort. --Charles Euchner, author, The Last Nine Innings
The Tigers have announced that Brandon Inge has returned to the team and that Danny Worth has been placed on the disabled list with a bruised left heel. When Inge was hit by a pitch which broke his hand two weeks ago, the initial estimate from the team was that he would be out four to six weeks. He's back two weeks earlier than the lower end of that estimate. In the past, Inge has tried to play through injuries and it hurt the team. The most prominent example was his trying to play through knee tendinitis the second half of last hear. Let's hope he's ready this time. With Inge back on third base, newly acquired Jhonny Peralta will take over the shortstop position. Rookie Will Rhymes will remain at second base until Carlos Guillen (strained calf) returns next week. Ramon Santiago will return to his familiar backup role. Inge, Peralta and Guillen are their best offensive options around the infield. Inge will help their defense but Guillen and Peralta will open up holes in the middle of the infield. The pitcher who is likely to be hurt the most by poor infield defense is Rick Porcello (47.6% groundball rate). Most of their starters - Jeremy Bonderman (41.5% ), Justin Verlander (39.7%), Armando Galarraga (39.4%) - and Max Scherzer (39.1%) - have been predominantly fly ball pitchers this year. Still, no pitcher benefits from lack of range in the infield. The hope is that Guillen and Peralta can make up for their defensive deficiencies with their offense.
I went to the Tigers game at Fenway Park and it was a great day despite the outcome of the game. First, I was interviewed before the game by Detroit Tigers broadcaster Dan Dickerson. The interview was about my book Beyond Batting Average and baseball statistics in general. It will be aired on Sunday's pre-game show (on WXYT in Detroit). I think the interview went pretty well but I haven't heard it yet. So, we'll see how it sounds. I almost didn't make it. First, there was a major delay on the subway. Then, I was supposed to meet Dan at 2:00 but they wouldn't let fans in until 2:10. I tried to tell Fenway security that I was supposed to be at an interview with the Tigers broadcaster at 2:00 but they either weren't buying it or didn't care. Probably both. I thought I was going to miss an opportunity I had been anticipating for a long time. Anyway, I finally got in the park and met Dan in the stands at about 2:20. I was a wreck at that point but Dan is the type of guy that puts you at ease right away. So that helped a lot. Still, I think I would have blanked out if I had not prepared so much ahead of time. I also got a chance to meet Samara Pearlstein for the first time. Many of you know her as the author of the great blog Roar of the Tigers. She also did all the illustrations for my book. I'm sure she will put up her usual photographs of the game and she even took a couple of me. So, you will get to see my mustache for the first (and maybe last) time. For one thing, it certainly isn't creating any good karma for the Tigers. The best part of the actual viewing of the game was not surprisingly Miguel Cabrera. He put on an awesome show in batting practice. He even had the Red Sox fans cheering and he took a bow afterward. He then hit a rocket in the first inning that cleared everything in left field. Max Scherzer pitched a fine game as well. Needless to say, the game did not end well. Being surrounded by 30,000 hysterical Red Sox fans dancing and chanting "Papi Papi" for ten minutes after the game is an experience I would not wish on any Tigers fan! Regardless, it was a good day at the ballpark.
The Tigers acquired Jhonny Peralta from the Cleveland Indians today for minor league pitcher Giovanni Soto. Peralta is a 28-year-old third baseman who is batting .246/.308/.389 so far this year. The converted shortstop appeared to be headed for stardom when he posted a .886 OPS at age 23 in 2005. After two down years, he then had an OPS of .804 in 2008. However, his OPS has been below .700 each of the last two years. He will presumably take over third base while Brandon Inge is on the the disabled list with a broken hand. When Inge returns in another month or so, Peralta may switch to shortstop if he hits. He's not a good defensive shortstop though, so it would be hard to justify bumping Ramon Santiago and Danny Worth if he continues to struggle offensively. The Tigers have a $7 million option on Peralta for next year, but it's hard to see them exercising it at this point. Soto is a soft tossing left-hander who had a 2.61 ERA and 76/25 K/BB ratio at low single-A Western Michigan this year. He is only 19 years old and still has time to increase his velocity, but TigsTown.com currently has him ranked as only the 36th best prospect in the Tigers system.
Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez have been placed on the disabled list and infielders Jeff Larish and Will Rhymes have been added to the 25 man roster. Guillen left today's game with a strained calf and Ordonez left with a broken ankle. The injuries to Guillen, Ordonez and Brandon Inge have left the Tigers with a very young inexperienced roster. Nine of their 13 position players spent time in the minors either last year or this year. Only Miguel Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Gerald Laird and Ramon Santiago have been in the majors for all of 2009-2010. Rhymes is a 5-9 155 pound second baseman, who has been described as the David Eckstein of the minors. The left-handed batter hit .304/.367/.414 for Toledo this season. He also had a 33/31 BB/K ratio in 336 at bats and 20 steals. Jeff Larish is a slugging corner infielder who was batting .275/.373/.497 for the MudHens. He was hitting .304 with 10 homers in June-July.
Magglio Ordonez left tonight's game after the third inning with a fractured ankle and will be out six to eight weeks. His ankle had already been bothering him and he was being used as a designated hitter to reduce the risk of further injury. However, he twisted his ankle sliding into home on a double by Miguel Cabrera in the bottom of the third. He had to be helped off the field and x-rays revealed the bad news later. The Ordonez injury combined with Brandon Inge's broken hand may be too much to overcome for a team trying to stay in the race in the American League Central division. They already have five rookies playing regularly and will likely call up another tomorrow. Possibilities include Ryan Strieby, Casper Wells and Wilkin Ramirez. This could also mean more playing time for Ryan Raburn and Donny Kelly. The line-up is not looking good at all right now. This week's injuries will probably alter what they will try to as the trading deadline approaches. Much of the talk has centered around acquiring a starting pitcher such as Danny Haren or Ted Lilly. There has also been talk about relievers, although specific names have not been mentioned seriously. They might now shift their attention to hitters. One possibility would be to move Carlos Guillen back to DH, Johnny Damon to left field and Scott Sizemore to second base and to acquire a new third baseman. Of course, they might also decide that they are no longer serious contenders and stand pat. They could spend the rest of the season finding out which young players are ready for next year. Another thing to think about is Magglio Ordonez's contract. His 2011 option will vest if he reaches 135 starts or 540 plate appearances in 2010 or 270 starts and 1,080 plate appearances in 2009-2010. He has only 84 starts and 365 starts so far this season, which makes it virtually impossible for his option to vest. This means the Tigers will be able to shed his $15 million contract, or at least sign him at a lower salary. With the end of contracts of Ordonez, Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, Johnny Damon, Gerald Laird and Brandon Inge brings, over 60 million will be coming off the books after the season. A couple of those players may be back at lower salaries, but I think we can expect a lot of wheeling and dealing this off-season. For now though, the injury is a big blow to their chances to contend for the division title. It could lead to a disappointing rest of the summer for Tigers fans. All we can do is wait and see how things unfold starting with the player they call up for tomorrow's doubleheader.
It's been well documented that Miguel Cabrera has a chance to be the first Triple Crown winner (league leader in batting average, home runs and Runs Batted In) in Major League Baseball since Red Sox outfielder Carl Yastremski accomplished the feat in 1967. Cabrera's .347 batting average is second in the league to Rangers slugger Josh Hamilton (.354). His 24 homer's are second to Jose Baustista of the Blue Jays (26) . He leads the league in RBI with 85. So, he is certainly within reach of winning all three categories . Cabrera also ranks well on some of the more modern statistics: He leads in slugging average (.650) and OPS (1.070). He is second in OBP (.420) to Twins first Baseman Justin Morneau (.437). If we compare his OPS to league average and adjust for home ballpark, we get his adjusted OPS+. An OPS+ of 100 is league average. An OPS+ of more than 100 is better than average and an OPS+ of less than 100 is worse than average. Keeping in mind that it's difficult to assign a ballpark effect to Target Field in Minnesota at this early stage, Cabrera is currently second to Morneau in OPS+ (181 versus 182). A limitation of OPS+ is that it weights OBP and slugging equally. In actuality, OBP is more important than slugging and should carry more weight. It has been determine from the results of thousands of games that the following linear weights are more appropriate: single 0.47 double 0.77 triple 1.04 home run 1.40 walk 0.31 HBP 0.34 Based on that, we can arrive at a batters runs created (wRC). Cabrera has 84.7 wRC which is second to Hamilton at 85.8. Adjusted Runs Created (wRC+) is the linear weights version of OPS+ and is interpreted the same way. Cabrera is second to Morneau in wRC+ (181 to 185). I used OPS+ and wRC+ to compare Cabrera's 2010 season so far to the best seasons in Tigers history. Table 1 below lists the top seasons according to OPS+. Not surprisingly, Ty Cobb dominates the list with nine of the top 11 seasons. His OPS+ in those years ranged from 209 in 1917 to 185 in 1915. His supremacy is interrupted only by Norm Cash (201 in 1961) and Harry Heilmann (194 in 1923). Cabrera's current 181OPS+ ranks him 12th on the list. For those who are curious, Magglio ordonez had a 166 OPS+ in 2007. Table 1: Top OPS+ seasons in Tigers history | Rank | Player | Year | OPS+ | | 1 | Ty Cobb | 1917 | 209 | | 2 | Ty Cobb | 1910 | 206 | | 3 | Norm Cash | 1961 | 201 | | 4 | Ty Cobb | 1912 | 200 | | 5 | Ty Cobb | 1911 | 196 | | 6 | Harry Heilmann | 1923 | 194 | | 7 | Ty Cobb | 1913 | 194 | | 8 | Ty Cobb | 1909 | 194 | | 9 | Ty Cobb | 1918 | 193 | | 10 | Ty Cobb | 1914 | 190 | | 11 | Ty Cobb | 1915 | 185 | | 12 | Miguel Cabrera | 2010 | 181 | | 13 | Harry Heilmann | 1927 | 180 | | 14 | Ty Cobb | 1916 | 179 | | 15 | Al Kaline | 1967 | 176 | | 16 | Roy Cullenbine | 1946 | 176 |
Table 2 lists the top Tigers seasons according to wRC+. Cobb is even more dominant on this list taking nine of the top ten spots. Cash's 1961 season is the only interruption. Cabrera ranks #15 on this list behind ten seasons of Cobb, Cash, Heilmann's 1923 and 1927 seasons and Roy Cullenbine in 1946. There is still a lot of baseball to be played this season but if Cabrera can keep up the same pace, it will be one of the best seasons ever by a Tiger not named Cobb. Table 2: Top wRC+ Seasons in Tigers history | Rank | Player | Year | wRC+ | | 1 | Ty Cobb | 1917 | 219 | | 2 | Ty Cobb | 1910 | 219 | | 3 | Ty Cobb | 1911 | 210 | | 4 | Ty Cobb | 1909 | 209 | | 5 | Ty Cobb | 1913 | 203 | | 6 | Norm Cash | 1961 | 200 | | 7 | Ty Cobb | 1912 | 200 | | 8 | Ty Cobb | 1915 | 200 | | 9 | Ty Cobb | 1918 | 200 | | 10 | Ty Cobb | 1914 | 197 | | 11 | Harry Heilmann | 1923 | 196 | | 12 | Ty Cobb | 1916 | 193 | | 13 | Roy Cullenbine | 1946 | 192 | | 14 | Harry Heilmann | 1927 | 187 | | 15 | Miguel Cabrera | 2010 | 181 | | 16 | Al Kaline | 1967 | 181 |
Rookie Scott Sizemore has been recalled from Toledo to replace Brandon Inge at third base. He has played only four games at third base, but the Tigers don't have any better options in their system. My original thought was that Sizemore would play second with Carlos Guillen switching to third. Apparently the Tigers either don't think Guiillen has the arm to play third or just don't want to move him to yet another position in the middle of the season. I'm sure they are hoping that Sizemore can blossom as a hitter while playing a passable third base. While Sizemore will be a substantial downgrade defensively at third, he has potential as a hitter. He began the season as the Tigers starting second baseman but struggled at the plate with a .586 OPS in 97 at bats. However, he excelled at triple-A Toledo batting .329 with a .392 OBP and 19 extra base hits in 41 games. This is not likely to be a permanent shift. If he has a future as a major league regular, it will almost surely be at second base.
Brandon Inge was hit by a pitch by Rangers right-hander Scott Feldman tonight and left the game with a broken finger. The early word is that he'll be out four to six weeks. This is a big blow to the Tigers who already had a few other holes they were trying to fill before the July 31trading deadline. He was replaced by Don Kelly tonight, but that won't be a permanent arrangement. There are a couple of possible directions they could go. What I would like to see them do is bring up second baseman Scott Sizemore (.333/,395/.509 for Toledo) and move Carlos Guillen to third base. Sizemore is a better second baseman than Guillen and Guillen won't hurt them anymore at third than second. Since I think that Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland will be reluctant to move Guillen to yet another new position, a more likely scenario would be to call up Jeff Larish (.273/.368./.505 for Toledo). The problem I see with this move is that you end up with below average defenders at both second and third. The third possibility would be to acquire a third baseman in a trade, but they are already looking for help in the starting rotation, the bullpen and shortstop. If they do look to acquire a third baseman, possible targets include Pedro Feliz and Ty Wgginton. I'm sure we'll find out more tomorrow.
The Indians beat the Tigers 7-2 today to complete a four game sweep of the Tigers. Jeanmar Gomez held them to two unearned runs in seven innings in his first MLB start. It shouldn't have come to a surprise to anyone given how the Tigers have played this series: Here is my summary of the Tigers play this series: 1. Poor pitching except for Rick Porcello 2. Poor fielding 3. Even worse hitting My list of positives: 1. Porcello pitched a great game in the second game of yesterday's doubleheader. There is really nothing else I can come up with. It was just an awful series, the worst of the season for the Tigers. They better get straightened out fast because the schedule is about to get really tough with 30 straight games versus teams which are currently above .500: 3 vs. Rangers 4 vs. Blue Jays 7 vs. Rays 3 vs. Red Sox 6 vs. White Sox 3 vs. Angels 4 vs. Yankees
The one thing the Tigers need more than anything if they are going to remain in contention all year is for Rick Porcello to turn his season around. He was sent down to the minors in June after posting a 6.14 ERA in 13 starts. After four starts in Toledo, the hope is that he'll respond to his triple-A stint anywhere close to as well as Max Scherzer has. Scherzer has a 2.86 ERA and 11 strikeouts per nine innings since returning from a two-game trip to Toledo. Porcello returned to the Tigers rotation with a bang tonight. He threw eight innings of six-hit one-run ball versus the Indians in the second game of a doubleheader. His control was outstanding as he threw 71 of his 99 pitches for balls and walked nobody. He had his sinker working well enough to put up an 11/6 gound out fly out ratio. prior to his demotion, he had a 28/38 GO/FO ratio which isn't going to work for a sinker ball pitcher. In addition to the ground balls, he also had a season high six strikeouts. Some will say that it's only game against a weak hitting Cleveland Indians club and they are correct. However, this is the same team against which Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander have struggled the last two days. The important thing is that Porcello was throwing strikes and inducing grounders, two things he wasn't doing so much earlier in the year.
The Tigers scored three runs off Fausto Carmona in the first inning but stopped right there losing 4-3 to the Indians in the first game of a day night doubleheader. Carmona was not sharp today allowing six batters in the first four innings. However, three doubleplays and some strong Indians defense saved him. Most notably, third baseman Andy Marte made a brilliant play on a shot down the line by Miguel Cabrera with two runners on base and nobody out in the third inning. He turned a two run double into a double play and the Tigers were pretty much done offensively after that point. Justin Verlander also had trouble with control allowing five walks in six innings. His wild pitch with the bases loaded in the sixth inning allowed the tying run to score. It's a ball that Alex Avila could have caught but when your ace allows five walks, you are inviting that sort of thing to happen. Reliever Phil Coke allowed the winning run to score in the seventh on a double by Matt LaPorta, a questionable intentional walk to Shelley Duncan and a single by Trevor Crowe. It's been two consecutive lackluster performances versus a last place team for the Tigers. Rick Porcello, who really needs to get going in the second half, will pitch game two versus Mitch Talbot.
After an all-star break that seemed to last a month, the Tigers were finally back in action today. Unfortunately, they were pounded by the Indians 8-2 at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Austin Kearns and Andy Marte led the Indians ten hit attack with homers. The loss leaves the Tigers a game and a half behind the White Sox pending the outcome of their game with the Twins tonight. Max Scherzer came into the game with a 2.44 ERA and 62/19 K/BB ratio in 51 2/3 innings since returning from Toledo. Tonight, he had control problems walking five batters and throwing 109 pitches in just five innings. He gave up four runs on five hits. Miguel Cabrera extended his hitting streak to a career high 20 games with a first inning single. He gave the Tigers a 1-0 lead at the time. The Tigers mysterious home/road breakdown continues. They are now 32-13 at home and 16-26 on the road. They've got three more games at Cleveland this weekend including a doubleheader tomorrow.
Minnesota came into the series having only five wins in their last 16 games. They had fallen into third place after being in first most of the season. Still, Tigers fans always fear the worst when the Twins come to town. This time the Tigers took game one 7-3 in relatively stress-free fashion. The Bengals jumped out to an early 2-0 lead in the first inning against Twins starter Francisco Liriano. The inning featured three straight singles by the heart of the order - Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera and Brennan Boesch. They added five more in the second thanks to a two-run single by Ordonez and a two-run triple by Carlos Guillen. They led 7-0 after two innings with their ace Justin Verlander on the mound. The Tigers would not score again against four Twins relievers but there was no way Jim Leyland was going to let this one get away. He made two preemptive moves to make sure the Twins would not sneak back into it. When Verlander allowed five straight singles in the sixth to make it 7-2, Leyland immediately removed him. Normally, he would let let Verlander try to work his way out off a mess in the sixth inning of a two-run game but not tonight. Rookie Robbie Weinhardt came into the game with the bases loaded and one out and induced Delmon Young to hit into a double play. The second Leyland decision came in the ninth. Ryan Perry allowed the first two batters to reach in the ninth. In a typical game, Leyland would have left him in there for at least another batter. Tonight though, he brought in closer Jose Valverde with a five-run lead. Valverde allowed a single to J.J. Hardy to make it 7-3 but then retired the final three batters in succession. Tomorrow, night it will be Jeremy Bonderman versus Nick Blackburn. It's a pretty good match-up for the Tigers but if Bonderman pitches the way he has in the last couple of outings, you can bet that the Tigers manager will have a quick hook again. It's an important series and Leyland is going to do everything he can to give them a chance at a series win.
Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson are the two best rookies in the American League so far this season. They are also having the most impressive seasons we've seen among Tigers rookie position players in a long time. Where do they rank on the list of all-time Tigers rookies? To answer this question, I used statistics from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference. Some of statistics used are: - OPS+ = OPS relative to league average adjusting for ballpark: 100 is average; above 100 is better than average; below 100 is worse than average.
- RAA = Runs Above Average = runs contributed above what an average batter would have been expected to contribute given the same number of outs.
- WAR = Wins Above Replacement = the wins a player contributed to his team’s win total above what you would expect from a replacement level player – a theoretical player who could be acquired for league minimum salary.
It’s a challenge to rank players from different eras and the rankings which follow are somewhat subjective. It’s especially difficult to compare players on fielding contribution because the most advanced fielding data are only available for 2002-2010. WAR attempts to include fielding contribution but data prior to retrosheet in 1954 are not very reliable. For earlier years, anecdotal information on fielding is also considered.
Assuming Brennan Boesch continues to hit at the same rate, he would be the best rookie hitter in Tigers history with an OPS+ of 160. However, I have ranked him below Rudy York, who had a 150 OPS+ at the more demanding catching position. I ranked Austin Jackson number five ahead of some better hitters, in part, because of his exceptional fielding at an important defensive position. The top 12 players are included in Table 1. Table 1: Top 10 Rookie Seasons for Tigers Position Players | Rank | Player | Year | Pos | Age | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | RAA | WAR | | 1 | Rudy York | 1937 | C | 23 | 417 | .307 | .375 | .651 | 150 | 34.6 | 4.3 | | 2 | Brennan Boesch | 2010 | LF | 25 | 251 | .341 | .394 | .594 | 160 | 20.4 | 2.5 | | 3 | Dale Alexander | 1929 | 1B | 26 | 700 | .343 | .397 | .580 | 148 | 42.9 | 4.5 | | 4 | Donie Bush | 1909 | SS | 21 | 676 | .273 | .380 | .314 | 114 | 26.1 | 7.4 | | 5 | Austin Jackson | 2010 | CF | 23 | 322 | .307 | .354 | .407 | 103 | 5.2 | 2.2 | | 6 | Dick Wakefield | 1943 | LF | 22 | 697 | .316 | .377 | .434 | 127 | 29.4 | 4.2 | | 7 | Matt Nokes | 1987 | C | 23 | 508 | .289 | .345 | .536 | 135 | 20.8 | 3.6 | | 8 | Barney McCosky | 1939 | CF | 22 | 692 | .311 | .384 | .470 | 100 | 20.6 | 4.2 | | 9 | Lou Whitaker | 1978 | 2B | 21 | 567 | .285 | .361 | .357 | 101 | 4.7 | 3.7 | | 10 | Harvey Kuenn | 1953 | SS | 22 | 731 | .308 | .356 | .386 | 101 | 2.8 | 3.6 | | 11 | Lu Blue | 1921 | 1B | 24 | 709 | .308 | .416 | .427 | 116 | 24.7 | 3.6 | | 12 | Ira Flagstead | 1919 | RF | 25 | 342 | .331 | .416 | .481 | 155 | 24.4 | 3.7 |
Here are some notes on each batter: Rudy York (1937) York blasted 18 home runs in the month of August which is still an American League record. He finished in the American League Top five in slugging (.651), homers (35) and OPS (1.026). York gets extra credit in the ranking for being a catcher. He wound up playing 13 Major League seasons between 1934-1948, most of them with the Tigers. He batted .275, with 277 home runs and a 123 OPS+ in 1,603 games.
Brennan Boesch (2010)
Boesch is fifth in the league in OPS (.988), fourth in batting average (.341), and fourth in slugging (.594). He is the clear favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award in the American League.
Dale Alexander (1929)
Alexander finished in the American League top ten in batting average (.343), slugging (.580) and OPS (.977). He batted .331 in five seasons with the Tigers and Red Sox but was a terrible fielder and was sent to the minors after batting .281 in 1933.
Matt Nokes (1987)
Nokes hit one homer for every 14.4 at bats in 1987, good for fourth best in the league. He also gets extra credit for being a catcher. He played 11 seasons with five major league teams but never again approached the numbers of his rookie season.
Donie Bush (1909)
Bush led the league in games played (157) and walks (88) and finished third in OBP (.380). His rookie season was his best one offensively but he went on to play 16 seasons as a steady shortstop, mostly with the Tigers.
Austin Jackson (2010)
Jackson leads American League center fielders with a .307 batting average and is third in OBP (.354). More importantly, he leads all Major League center fielders in Defensive Runs Saved (+12 runs better than average).
Dick Wakefield (1943)
Wakefield was likely helped somewhat by the diluted talent pool during World War II but he finished second in batting (.316), 6th in OBP (.377) and 5th in slugging (.434). That was his only truly full season but he played nine years mostly with the Tigers and posted a 131 OPS+ in 2,132 career at bats.
Barney McCosky (1939)
McCosky finished 5th in the league in times on base (262), fourth in runs (120) and second in triples (14) while playing a solid center field. He missed three prime years due to World War II but still posted a line of .312/.386/.414 in 11 seasons with four teams.
Lou Whitaker (1978)
Whitaker and Alan Trammell began their long careers as a very strong hitting and fielding keystone combo in 1978. Whitaker batted .285 with a .361 OBP and won the American League Rookie of the Year. He played 19 seasons, all with the Tigers, and batted .276/.363/.426.
Harvey Kuenn (1953)
Kuenn finished sixth in the league with a .308 batting average in 155 games as a shortstop. That performance earned him the American League Rookie of the Year award. Kuenn went on to bat .303 in 15 seasons for five major league teams.
Lu Blue (1921)
Blue walked 103 times to finish second in the league and his .416 OBP was good for eighth. In 13 major league seasons, he walked 1,092 times with only 436 strikeouts.
Ira Flagstead (1919) Flagstead batted a robust .331/.416/.481 with a 153 OPS+ but ranks as low as twelfth on this list because he had only 342 plate appearances in 1919. He played 13 seasons, mostly with the Tigers and Red Sox, and batted .290 with a .370 OBP.
For most of baseball history, baserunning has been measured by stolen bases and caught stealing. Fans and analysts have complained for a long time that there is more to baserunning than stealing bases and that the impact of baserunning has not been measured adequately. For example, a good baserunner will go from first to third on a single or advance from second to third on a fly ball more often than a poor baserunner. With the development of play-by-play databases such as Retrosheet, it is now possible to measure baserunning beyond stolen bases. The most advanced baserunning metric is Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EQBRR) found at at Baseball Prospectus. Developed by former Baseball Prospectus writer and current MLB team statistician Dan Fox, EQBRR takes into account the following types of baserunner advancement: (1) Ground outs (e.g. Runner is on first base with other bases unoccupied and less than two outs and then advances to second on a ground out) (2) Air outs (e.g. Runner is on second base with third base unoccupied and less than two outs and then advances to third on a fly out) (3) Stolen bases, caught stealing and pickoffs. (4) Hits (Runner goes from first to third on a single, second to home on a single or first to home on a double) (5) Other (passed balls, wild pitches, balks) A complex algorithm takes all of the above into consideration in estimating the number of runs which a player contributed to his team above what you would expect from an average baserunner. For those who are interested in the details, the methodology can be found here, here and here. The top baserunners in the American League according to EQBRR in 2010 are listed below: Chone Figgins, Sea 5.9 Elvis Andrus, Tex 5.9 Carl Crawford, TB 5.4 Ben Zobrist, TB 3.6 Brett Gardner, NYA 3.6 Austin Jackson, Det 2.8 Austin Jackson is sixth in the league with an EQBRR of 2.8. This means that he has contributed an estimated 2.8 runs above what the average baserunner would have contributed given the same opportunities. A player's baserunning contribution is generally a lot less than his hitting contribution but some players actually do make a significant impact with their baserunning and it should be considered in determining their overall offensive value. The EQBRRs for all Tigers with 100 or more opportunities for base advancement are listed below: Austin Jackson +2.8 Johnny Damon +2.0 Magglio Ordonez +1.2 Gerald Laird +0.2 Ramon Santiago -0.4 Brandon Inge -0.6 Brennan Boesch -1.2 Miguel Cabrera -1.6 Carlos Guillen -1.7 The biggest surprise on the list might be Ordonez at +1.2. Magglio is not known for his speed on the bases. This result is probably just a fluke as he is usually below average on this statistic. As a team, the Tigers rank third in the league: Tampa Bay 6.6 Texas 6.4 Detroit 1.3 Which team is last in the league? Mike Scioscia's aggressive Angels are 12.4 runs below average. That just goes to show that aggressive baserunning only works when you've got runners who have the ability to execute.
I appeared on the Knee Jerks internet radio broadcast with Greg Eno and Al Beaton last night to talk about the Tigers. You can listen to it here. Big Al also talks about the Tigers at Bless You Boys. Greg talks Tigers on Where have you gone Johnny Grubb?
The Tigers defeated the Twins in Minnesota 7-5 tonight to move into first place. They beat the Twins at their own game. Austin Jackson and Ramon Santiago were peppering infield hits all night long. Santiago forced a throwing error on a sacrifice bunt. They stole two bases. One of the worst hitters in the league this year - Gerald Laird - got a clutch home run in the eighth inning. They did everything that the Twins have been doing to them for years. The Tigers went out in front with a four run first highlighted by back-to-back two-run doubles by Miguel Cabrera and Brennan Boesch. As usual the Twins did not go down easily. They spent the rest of the night playing catch up and were almost successful. Jeremy Bonderman was not sharp leaving with a 5-4 lead with one out in the sixth inning. The Twins scored a run off reliever Phil Coke in the seventh inning to make it 6-5. It was that kind of night but this time the Tigers held on. This should be the most satisfying victory of the year for the Tigers and their fans but it isn't. Joel Zumaya left the game in severe pain after throwing a pitch to Delmon Young. He appeared to hurt his elbow and collapsed on the mound. It looked awful. It was reminiscent of Dave Dravecky whose arm literally broke off while throwing a pitch back in 1989. There is no word on the severity yet but I'm guessing Zumaya is done for the season and maybe more. Ironically, the Zumaya injury forced Jose Velverde into the game in the eighth inning. Just yesterday, I wrote that Valverde was being misused in his narrowly defined ninth inning role. Obviously, this was not the circumstance I was hoping for when I wished he would be used differently. He did retire the last five Twins in order but it was a bittersweet victory.
There is no question that Jose Valverde has been awesome this season. He has surrendered runs in only two of his 33 appearances and has an ERA of 0.56. He has allowed just 11 hits and has a 29/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 32 1/3 innings. This has translated into 17 saves in 18 opportunities. While he has been an indispensable piece of the Tigers bullpen this year, I've had the sense that the Tigers best reliever has not been used optimally. It's the nature of the modern bullpen that a closer will often enter games in non-pressure situations. Valverde has pitched in eleven games where the Tigers had a four run lead or greater and one in which they were behind by multiple runs. In many of these cases, he was used simply because he needed work. He has also has had four saves when he came into the game with a three run lead. Thus, he has had only 13 saves where he entered the game with a lead of one or two runs. Have his talents been wasted in the specialized closer role? New statistics have been developed in recent years which are better than ERA and saves for measuring reliever performance. The win probability added (WPA) statistic gives relievers credit based on the effect each batter faced has on the team's probability of winning. These probabilities vary depending on the game state before and after each play. Eldon and Harlan Mills applied Player Win Averages – an early version of WPA – to the 1969 season using play-by-play data purchased from the Elias Sports Bureau. One interesting result was that the leading pitchers in player win average were relievers Tug McGraw of the New York Mets and Ken Tatum of the California Angels. This was noteworthy at the time, as relievers were not valued by fans and media in 1969 as much as they are today. WPA works as follows. Suppose Valverde comes into the game in the top of the eighth with a two run lead, no outs and a runner on first. There is a 0.837 (83.7%) expectancy that an average team will win a game given that situation. Now, assume that he strikes out the first batter. There is now one out and the probability of winning increases to 0.884 (88.4%). Subtracting the win expectation before the strikeout from the win expectation after the strikeout gives us the value of the play in terms of the probability of winning added by the strikeout, that is, 0.047 (0.884 – 0.837) or 4.7%. Finally, suppose the next batter, facing Valverde, doubles home a run. That gives the Tigers a one run lead with a runner on second and one out. The probability of winning goes down to 0.774 so he loses .110 (0.774 – 0.884) points on that batter. Summing all the gains and subtracting all the losses for all the batters Valverde faces during a season yields his WPA. WPA is especially useful for relievers, because of the impact their innings typically have on the outcomes of games. The top American League relievers in terms of WPA in 2010 ( according to FanGraphs) are listed below: Daniel Bard, Bos 2.52 Rafael Soriano, TB 2.42 Jose Valverde, Det 1.71 Joakim Soria, KC 1.67 Darren Oliver, Tex 1.61 Valverde ranks a distant third on this statstic but what is most interesting to me is that two of the top five relievers are not closers. WPA helps to measure reliever performance but it doesn't really get at the main question here which is whether Valverde has been used optimally. Ideally, you would want your best reliever to pitch in the most high pressure situations. This can be answered using the leverage index concept developed by Tom Tango. Leverage index (LI) measures how critical a given plate appearance is in determining the final result of a game by looking at the difference in win probability between the best and worst case scenarios. Tango assigns a value of one to an average game situation. Higher-leverage situations have values of more than one and lower-leverage situations have values less than one. Each game scenario is then given a leverage index relative to the average situation. A leverage index of two, for example, means that the given at bat has twice as much impact on the outcome of the game as the average at bat. Leverage indexes are averaged over the batters faced by a pitcher to arrive at leverage index per plate appearance (pLI). If we are just concerned with the index when the pitcher enters the game, then we would use gmLI. The AL gmLI leaders in 2010 are listed below: David Aardsma, Sea 2.08 Daniel Bard, Bos 2.07 Jon Rauch, Min 1.97 Jonathan Papelbon, Bos 1.95 Neftali Feliz, Tex 1.94 Not surprisingly, four of the top five pitchers are closers. However, Jose Valverde is only 19th in the league with a 1.49 gmLI. This tells us that many other relievers are seeing higher impact situations than Valverde. Even more telling is that Valverde does not lead his own team in gmLI: Ryan Perry 1.70 Jose Valverde 1.49 Phil Coke 1.37 Joel Zumaya 1.29 Perry has been used in higher impact situations than Valverde and Zumaya and Coke are not far behind. According to the numbers, Valverde has not been used as well as he could have been. This is not a criticism of Jim Leyland. All managers use their closers pretty much the same way. It's more a question as to how well the system works when arguably the league's best reliever is not being used in high leverage spots very often. Instead of having Valverde enter a dozen or more games in very low impact situation just to get work, wouldn't it be better if Leyland picked his spots using him only when the game was on the line? I'd rather see him enter a tie game in the eighth inning or with the bases loaded in the seventh than see him get a three out save with nobody on base and three run lead. I know the argument that relievers need to have roles in order to feel comfortable. However, John Hiller, Aurelio Lopez, Willie Hernandez and countless others had success without such strictly defined roles. It will take a lot of courage for a manager to go against the system but I think there is a better way than the status quo.
Andy Oliver had a very impressive major league debut tonight allowing just two runs in six innings versus the hot hitting Atlanta Braves. He allowed five hits and just one walk and struck out four. Carlos Guillen's failure to turn a double play ball in the second led to one run. The other run scored on a homer by Braves catcher Brian McCann. According to Brooks Baseball, Oliver's fastball averaged over 94 MPH and reached as high as 97 MPH. That is really fast for a southpaw. While he threw his hardest in the earlier innings, he did reach 96 MPH on one pitch in his final inning of work. He threw 97 pitches in all. His arsenal also includes a slider and change-up. Unfortunately for Oliver and the Tigers, Kris Medlen and four relievers held the Tigers to just one first inning run. They scored in the first on singles by Ramon Santiago, Miguel Cabrera and Bennan Boesch. Billy Wagner got his 400th career save by striking out the side in the ninth.
The first two games of this week's series versus the Mets were ugly. The Tigers were routed 14-6 on Tuesday night and shutout 5-0 last night. They avoided a sweep tonight by holding off the Mets in a 6-5 squeaker. The win left the Tigers a half game behind the Twins, who were swept by the Brewers. The streaking White Sox have now won nine in a row and have pulled to within 2 1/2 games of first. The Tigers had a 6-1 lead in the sixth but the Mets scored three in the bottom of the sixth and one in the seventh to pull to within one run. The Tigers secured the victory with some clutch relief pitching. With the bases loaded and one out in the seventh, Phil Coke struck out David Wright and got Ike Davis to fly to Austin Jackson in center field. Joel Zumaya allowed two hits but no runs in the eighth and Jose Valverde pitched a one-two-three ninth. Valverde now has a 0.57 ERA and has allowed just 10 hits in 30 1/3 innings. Offensively, the Tigers jumped out to their early lead on the strength of a two run homer by Magglio Ordonez (two hits on the night) in the third and a two run shot by Ryan Raburn (three for three) in the fifth. Other Tigers with multiple hits were Miguel Cabrera with two and Brennan Boesch with three. Boesch now has 202 plate appearances leaving him 18 shy of the number he needs to qualify for leadership in various batting categories. To qualify, a player needs to have a PA total of 3.1 times the number of games played by his team. For the Tigers, that is 71 games times 3.1 = 220. Among players with 200 PA, Boesch's .346 batting average is third in the league. He leads in slugging average (.632) and is third in OPS (1.031).
Jon Morosi is reporting that the Tigers will call up Andy Oliver from Double-A Erie to start Friday's game versus the Braves in Atlanta. He will be taking the spot in the rotation vacated when Rick Porcello was demoted to the minors over the weekend. Oliver is one of the top prospects in the Tigers organization, so this is exciting news. He has a 3.61 ERA and 70/25 K/BB ratio in 77 1/3 innings for the SeaWolves this year. The left-handed Oliver was the Tigers second round pick in the 2009 draft. According to Mark Anderson of Scout.com, he throws hard for a lefty with a fastball that sits at 92-94 and touches 96. He also has a slider and change-up.
Detroit native Michael Cramer was 12 years old in 1976, the year Mark Fidrych took baseball by storm and became a national sensation. Cramer was one of 50,000 fans in attendance the night Mark Fidrych beat the Yankees on national television and became a hero to young fans across America. Like so many Tigers fans who were around to witness that incredible rookie season, Cramer idolized the Bird and has never forgotten the excitement he felt that summer. Cramer, now a Chicago lawyer, was determined to share his memories of Fidrych in a special way. Working on nights and weekends, Cramer wrote, directed and starred in an independent film titled "Dear Mr. Fidrych". In the first half of the movie, Marty Jones (played by Cramer's son Noah) is an intellectual 12-year-old boy, who is teased by school bullies for his interest in poetry. He also loves baseball and is frustrated at being stuck on a Little League minors team when he knows that he is good enough to play in the more competitive and esteemed Little League majors. Marty writes a poem and sends it to Fidrych, who thinks it is "cool". The Bird writes back telling Marty that the poem inspired him to beat the Angels the next night. From that point on, things start to go well for Marty. Most notably, he gets a chance to play in Little League majors and becomes one of the stars of the team. The movie then goes forward thirty years where Marty (played by Cramer himself) is a Chicago advertising executive, who still dabbles in poetry. His career and marriage are falling apart and he decides that he has to get away. So, he takes a road trip with his son (played by his real life son Jack) from Chicago to Boston in hopes of meeting the Bird. They do eventually meet Fidrych (who plays himself) on his farm in Northborough, Massachusetts. The charismatic yet unassuming Fidrych did not disappointment in being his genuine friendly self. Yesterday, I took my mother to see the movie at the Strand Theater in Clinton, Massachusetts, which is not too far from Northborough. The theatre was built in the 1920s and definitely has the feel of an old-time movie theater. It is unique in that it has comfortable seating with tables where people can eat a meal as they view. I suspect many in the audience were relatives and friends of Fidrych and they were delighted to get the chance to thank Cramer personally after the movie. The movie was artistic and skillfully done and I enjoyed it very much. Cramer did a great job capturing the thoughts and feelings of a young baseball player and fan. I also thought the storyline was realistic yet compelling from beginning to end. The acting was good too and the younger Cramers - Noah and Jack - were especially talented. Tigers fans of the 1970s will also enjoy the familiar names and sights which show up throughout the movie. I recommend the movie to all Tigers fans and Fidrych fans if the movie ever shows in your area. Sadly, Fidrych died in a tragic accident on his farm a couple months before the movie was completed. Cramer was shocked by the news of the death and regrets that Mark never saw the final product. However, he hopes that the movie will help keep the memory of Fidrych alive for those who experienced the Bird phenomenon and those who wish they did. More information about the movie can be found at the following links: DearMrFidrych.comWorcester Telegram
The Tigers optioned struggling right-hander Rick Porcello to Triple-A Toledo this morining. It is not yet known who will take his place on the roster. Porcello has been a disappointment this year as he has posted an ERA 6.14. Last year, his ERA was 3.96. His peripherals have declined across the board. In particular, his rate of strkeouts per nine innings has dropped from an already low 4.69 to 4.22. Most notably, his groundball rate has plummeted from a league leading 54.2% to 47.4%. The reason for the latter result is lack of command of the sinker which was the key to his success last year. He will work on that, as well as probably refining his breaking pitch and change-up in Toledo. The leading candidate to replace Porcello in the rotation may be Enrique Gonzalez, who has not allowed a run in two relief appearances so far. Gonzalez had a 3.31 ERA and 53/16 strikeout to walk ratio in 11 starts for Toledo this year. He started 18 games (along with 4 relief appearances) for the Diamondbacks in 2006 posting an ERA of 5.67. Other possibilities to replace Porcello include Alfredo Figaro (4.30 ERA in 12 starts for Toledo) and promising left-hander Andrew Oliver. Oliver, the Tigers second round pick in the 2009 draft, has a 3.61 ERA and 70/25 K/BB ratio in 77 1/3 inning for double-A Erie this year.
The Tigers broke a 5-5 tie with a two run rally in the eighth inning and beat the Diamondbacks 7-5 tonight. After Brennan Boesch reached first base on an uncharateristic ten pitch walk, Brandon Inge slugged a triple over center fielder Chris Young's head to give the Tigers the lead. Alex Avila followed with a single scoring Inge with an insurance run. The win was the seventh in a row for the Tigers and it pulled them to within a half game of the first place Twins, who lost 9-5 to the Phillies tonight. The Tigers jumped out to an early 4-0 lead versus old teammate Dontrelle Willis. Magglio Ordonez belted a two run homer in the first to give the Tigers a 2-0 edge. The Bengals added two more in a second inning highlighted by doubles Brandon Inge (three hits on the night) and Danny Worth. Starter Armando Galarraga was unable to take advantage of his good fortune allowing four runs in 4 1/3 innings and leaving with the game tied 4-4. It was the first poor performance for the right hander since his imperfect game on June 2. As has often been the case this year, the Tigers bullpen bailed out a starter and won the game. Tonight it was Eddie Bonine, Phil Coke and Jose Valverde throwing 3 2/3 scoreless innings. Red Hot Tigers Magglio Ordonez is batting .413 in his last 24 games. His .331 batting average is seventh in the American League and his .410 OBP ranks him fifth. Brandon Inge has hit in 15 of his last 17 games at a .361 clip. He has raised his batting average from .229 to .264 over that period.
Injury ReportAustin Jackson missed his fourth straight game with a lower back strain. With the Tigers winning without him, he may be held out until the series opener versus the Mets in Tuesday at New York. Miguel Cabrera left tonight's game due to dizziness in the fifth inning. There is no report at this time on the cause of the problem or whether he'll miss any additional time.
The Tigers continued their domination of National League opponents by defeating the Washington Nationals 8 to 3 to complete a three game sweep. That gives them six victories in a row and back to back sweeps over Washington and Pittsburgh. With the Twins 5 to 1 loss to the Rockies today, the Tigers are now just a game and a half out of first place. They were four and a half out a week ago. Jeremy Bonderman pitched another strong game retiring the first 11 batters and allowing two runs on five hits to go with seven strikeouts and no walks. With the inconsistent pitching of Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer, Bonderman has been a life saver for the Tigers rotation this year. He has a 4.06 ERA and an impressive 59/20 strikeout walk ratio for the season and has gotten better as the season has progressed. In his last eight starts, he has seven quality starts and has pitched at least seven full innings five times. Unlike some of his recent starts, the Tigers gave Bonderman plenty of hitting support today. They bombarded starter Luis Atilano and four relievers for 19 hits. Every starter had at least two hits except Don Kelly. Ramon Santiago (four hits) and Magglio Ordonez (three hits) paced the attack. This was all accomplished without the services of Austin Jackson (out with a sore back) and Johnny Damon (a day of rest). For the series, the Tigers pounded Nationals pitchers for 23 runs on 38 hits. On the other side of the ball, Tigers pitchers struck out 32 while walking just three. The Tigers will attempt to continue their streak in a three game weekend series versus the Diamondbacks.
Who guessed that Ryan Raburn would hit his first home run of the 2010 season on June 15? It took a long time but he made it count. He hit a three run blast to left field in the bottom of the fifth to put the Tigers in front 7-4. That would be the final score as the Tigers won their fourth consecutive game in interleague play. Raburn, who had two hits and 4 RBI today, is now hitting a paltry .180 with a .575 OPS in 97 plate appearances. Keep in mind that he also got off to a fairly slow start last year when he was batting .243 with four homers in 85 PA through June 15. From June 16 to the end of the season, he batted .310 with a .933 OPS One can only hope that he can have a similar rebound this year. However, barring an injury to one of the outfielders (something we certainly don't want to see), he's not going to get a lot of at bats. It was great to see Magglio Ordonez return to the line-up today after missing six games with a sore oblique muscle. He celebrated with a four hit game, his first of the year and 22nd of his career. It's a much different team with Ordonez in the third spot and they can't afford to have him miss a lot of games. What a difference a year makes. Many fans were singing a different tune last year hoping he would miss enough games so that his vesting option would not kick in. Gerald Laird started versus the left-handed John Lannan and got three hits today. Yes, three hits for Laird and all of them were hit pretty hard. He did make a throwing error which led to a run but who needs defense when you can hit like that? His batting average soared to .178 with the performance. Max Scherzer allowed three earned runs on seven hits but struck out nine in six innings. He is a new pitcher since returning from Toledo. He was averaging 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings prior to the demotion. Since coming back to the majors he has struck out batters at the rate 12.4 per nine innings. Phil Coke, Joel Zumaya and Jose Valverde nailed down the victory with three scoreless innings of relief.
There will be a series of contests this week where you can win a free copy of my book Beyond Batting Average. I will keep track of them in this post which I will update throughout the week. Three of them are up now at the following sites: Crashburn Alley, a Phillies blog written by Bill Baer. Crawfish Boxes, an Astros blog authored by David Coleman. Talking Chop, a Braves blog written by Martin Gandy You can get more information about the book including a 30-page preview here. On another note, Michael Street reviewed my book at his site LoveMyTeam last week. Here is an excerpt: Lee Panas, a baseball writer, Detroit Tigers fan and research analyst at Brandeis University, has written Beyond Batting Average, a book that breaks down every baseball statistic you can think of (and many you may never have heard of) to show what the stat measures, where it came from, and what problems it presents. This incredibly helpful guide needs to be on the bookshelf of every baseball fan, and should be required reading for anyone wishing to be a baseball analyst...
Carlos Guillen played the part of a goat for the first nine innings tonight. He managed to fail in the field, on the bases and at the plate. In the top of the second, Pirates shortstop Ronny Cedeno reached safely when Guillen was late to cover first on a bunt back to the mound. Then, in the top of the second, Guillen was too slow to tag up on a fly ball by Gerald Laird and was thrown out at third. The play cost the Tigers a run as the next batter Danny Worth smashed a double which would have scored Guillen. The Tigers second baseman then hit into a double play with the bases loaded ending a threat in the fifth inning. He left three additional men on base by making the final outs of the third and seventh innings. Guillen atoned for all his earlier sins when he lined a two balls, no strikes pitch from reliever Brendan Donnelly over the right field fence leading off the bottom of the tenth inning. The home run gave the Tigers a 4-3 victory, their second in two nights versus the Piates in interleague play. Until Guillen's homer, it was a frustrating night for the Tigers offensively. They had 16 batters reach safely in the first nine innings but managed only three runs. They scored a run in the second on a sacrifice fly by Gerald Laird. That was the same play as Guillen's baserunning gaffe, so Laird hit the ball 400 feet and still managed to hit into a double play. It's been that kind of season for the Tigers catcher. The Pirates then gave the Tigers two runs in the seventh. Reliever Evan Meek fielded a hard grounder from Miguel Cabrera which should have been an inning-ending double play. Instead of going for the easy two, Meek went to third to get the runner there. The next batter Brennan Boesch then tapped one back to Meek, who threw to first baseman Ryan Doumit for what once again should have been the final out. Doumit missed a ball he probably should have caught and two runs scored. Jeremy Bonderman tossed seven scoreless innings allowing just two runs on six hits. He was hit pretty hard early in the game but retired the last twelve batters he faced. It was a nice rebound from his awful outing versus the Royals last weekend. He left with a 3-2 lead but Joel Zumaya gave up a run in the eighth on three hits. Jose Valverde retired struck out the side in the ninth and Phil Coke pitched a scoreless tenth to give Guillen his opportunity.
After a disappointing 2-4 road trip to Kansas City and Chicago, the Tigers returned home tonight and beat the Pirates 6-2. Some notes on the game follow: - Justin Verlander was not dominant (3K, 4 BB) but allowed just two runs on four hits in seven innings. He now has a 2.39 ERA in his last nine games after a rough start to the season.
- Austin Jackson went 0 for 5 and is now just 2 for 31 since June 4. His batting average is down to .306 from a high of .377 on May 3. He did make another outstanding play tonight though. He made a long run to track down a fly ball to deep right center with his back to the plate.
- Brennan Boesch had two hits including his 8th home run. If he had enough plate appearances, his .643 slugging average would be third in the league behind Justin Moeneau and Miguel Cabrera.
- Brandon Inge went 3 for 4 to raise his batting average to .251. He is now 17 for 43 in his last 11 games.
- Alex Avila went 3 for 3 and is now 9 for his last 21. He has struck out just two times in his last 10 games after whiffing 21 times in his first 24 games this year.
The Tigers were routed by the White Sox 15-3 tonight and Rick Porcello was the victim again. Porcello got through the first three innings allowing just one run but completely fell apart in the fourth as the White Sox scored seven runs. In all, Porcello allowed eight runs on eight hits and not many of the hits were cheap ones. The damage included two home runs, two doubles and and some hard hit singles. Porcello has now seen his ERA rise from 3.96 in his rookie year to 6.09 this year. His peripheral stats have regressed across the board from 2009 to 2010. His ground ball rate has plummeted from an American League leading 54.2% in 2009 to 48.9% this year. His strikeout rate which was already low at 4.7 per nine innings last year is down to 4.0 this year. His walk rate per nine innings has increased from 2.7 to 3.1. Opinions vary on the reasons for his problems but there is a consensus on a couple of points. His sinking fastball is not working this year like it did last year. He seems to be getting it up in the zone more often, which is the likely reason for the decrease in ground ball rate. According to FanGraphs, he was 16.1 runs better than average with his fastball last year. This year, he was 3.1 worse than average before today's disaster. Beyond his fastball, the 21-year-old right-hander doesn't have any plus pitches as of yet. Both his breaking pitch and change-up need work. So, when he has trouble locating his fastball, he's not an effective pitcher. It's way too early to panic about the career of a pitcher as young as Porcello. But what about this year? Is it time for the Tigers to send him to Toledo to refine his game? They sent Max Scherzer down a few weeks back and he has come back with better stuff just two weeks later. I'm think that Porcello could be next.
The Tigers lost their first round pick in the 2010 First Year Player draft to the Houston Astros when they signed free agent reliever Jose Valverde this off-season. However, they did gain two supplemental picks at the end of the first round for losing Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon to free agency. They used one supplemental pick (the 44th pick in todays' draft) to sign high school infielder Nick Castellanos. The 6-4 225 pound Castellanos played shortstop for Archbishop McCarthy High School in Southwest Ranches, Florida. The Tigers have already revealed that Castellanos will play third base as a professional. He reportedly has good power potential and the skills to be a solid defender at the hot corner. Baseball America had Castellanos listed as the 14th third round pick in their final mock draft. He slipped to the Tigers due to sign-abilty issues - he has committed to the University of Miami. The Tigers have been aggressive in selecting and successfully signing these types of picks in the past. The Tigers then selected reliever Chance Ruffin of the University of Texas with the 48th pick. The six-foot-one right-hander had a 0.73 ERA and 96/18 K/BB ratio in 61 2/3 innings this spring. He is a polished pitcher, who could move quickly through the system. Ruffin is the son of former major leaguer Bruce Ruffin.
It was a long process but my book Beyond Batting Average is finally listed on Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble. I make more money if you purchase at Lulu but I know that some people prefer to shop at well known sites and they now have that option. If you want to preview the book before buying, Lulu is the only place you can do that at this time. Lulu is also the only place where you can get a pdf version for $7.00. The paperback book costs $14.00 plus shipping.
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