You may have noticed that there are two commonly used Wins Above Replacementnt (WAR) statistics for both hitters and pitchers:
Today. I’m going to discuss the pitching version of each. There are pros and cons to both measures and the statistical community is still debating the merits of the two. fWAR is based on FIP and therefore only considers events which a pitcher essentially controls – K, BB, HR, IP. It also adjusts for a pitchers home park.
The fWAR statistic has some potential drawbacks. First, it considers BABIP to be completely out of control of the pitcher. It also gives a pitcher no credit for distribution of base runners or sequencing events. For example, a pitcher that pitched well with runners on base would not get credit for that.
The rWAR statistic was invented by Sean Smith and is found on Baseball-Reference. It starts with total runs allowed by a pitcher and then adjusts for team fielding behind that pitcher. It considers IP run average (RA) - which is the same as ERA except it considers all runs rather than earned runs - and the Total Zone statistic. It also adjusts for the pitcher’s home park. The advantage is that it tries to tease out defense rather than completely ignore balls in play.
A potential shortcoming of rWAR is that the measurement of team defense in a single season is still shaky. It’s also possible that rWAR gives a pitcher too much credit for limiting hits on balls in play, distribution of base runners and sequencing.
So, which one is better? I prefer the concept of rWAR better. I think it’s good to start any kind of run prevention evaluation with runs allowed. The next step would be to determine how much of run prevention is pitching and how much is fielding. rWAR attempts to do that but the measurement of team defense in a single season is still too tenuous for me to use rWAR by itself.
Over the course of a career or several seasons, rWAR becomes more reliable because variation in team defense evens out and we learn more about a pitchers ability to control BABIP, base runner distribution and sequencing over time.
fWAR is valuable because it tells us how good a pitcher was at events over which he has the most responsibility. Thus, it is better statistic than rWAR for identifying pitching talent and projecting into the future. However, it makes too many assumptions about events which a pitcher does not control by himself for me to use it as a stand alone measure.
So rWAR is best for career measurement and fWAR is good for projection. How about evaluating which pitcher did best last season? I would not use either by itself, but rather I would make a judgment using both. One way to do that would be to take an average or weighted average of the two statistics. For now, I’ll look at the Tigers starters in 2010 using a straight average (Table 1).
Table 1: WAR for Tigers Starters in 2010
| Pitcher | fWAR | rWAR | AverageWAR | | Verlander | 4.5 | 3.4 | 4.0 | | Scherzer | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | | Galarraga | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | | Porcello | 1.7 | -0.1 | 0.8 | | Bonderman | 1.5 | -0.1 | 0.7 |
We can see that Justin Verlander was 4.5 wins above a replacement player according to Fan Graphs and 3.4 using Baseball-Reference. That averages out to 4.0 WAR. Based on that, we would say that he has added an estimated four wins to the Tigers beyond what an average player would contribute. Max Scherzer is next in line with an average WAR of 3.1.
All of the Tigers did better on fWAR than rWAR except Armando Galarraga. Galarraga does poorly on f WAR because he has not done a good job on things that a pitcher most controls (fWAR). He does better on rWAR because he has a low BABIP and relatively low ERA.
In future posts, I am going to look at average WAR for pitchers on other teams.
Last year, the voters for the Cy Young award selected 16-game winner Zach Greinke over 19-game winners Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. Based on ERA and sabermetric statistics such as Wins Above Replacement (WAR), they clearly made the right choice. In the the National League, they selected 15-game-winner Tim Lincecum instead of 19-game winner Adam Wainwright. There would have been no shame in giving the award to Wainwright, but again I think the made the correct selection. Those were two of the three lowest win totals for starting pitchers in the history of the award (Brandon Webb also won 16 games in 2006).
Traditionally, the writers who vote for the award have made games won a major criteria. In 1990, for example Clemens had 21 wins and led the American League with a 1.93 ERA, but lost out to 27-game winner Bob Welch, who had an ERA a full run higher (2.95). That appears to be changing as they seem to be recognizing more than ever that wins is not the fairest way to evaluate pitchers. This year will be particularly interesting though as they may have to choose between a potential 20-game winner and pitcher with fewer than 15 wins.
As it stands now, Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia has a 19-6 record. Felix Hernandez of the Mariners stands at 11-10. Readers of this blog don’t need me to explain the failings of won-loss record for pitchers, but this case is so extreme it’s worth mentioning the run support argument. While Sabathia has benefitted from 6.07 runs per game, King Felix has only received 3.16 runs per game. That’s almost three more runs per game for Sabathia! That’s hardly a fair comparison
Sometimes, pitchers accumulate a lot of wins because they are workhorses which pitch deep into games. One might guess that a 19-game winner would be pitching deeper into games than an 11-game winner, but, in this case, Hernandez actually has more innings pitched (219 1/3 versus 209). So, the wins statistic is not going to work here at all.
Since the main job of a pitcher is to give up as few runs as possible, a good starting point in pitcher evaluation is ERA. Table 1 shows that Hernandez leads Sabathia in ERA by a wide margin (2.30 versus 3.14). The ERA leader is Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox at 2.25. However, Buchholz has pitched only 151 2/3 innings, so he has not helped his team as much as Hernandez.
Table 1: AL ERA Leaders
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | | Buchholz, Bos | 151 2/3 | 2.25 | | Hernandez, Sea | 219 1/3 | 2.30 | | Cahill, Oak | 165 2/3 | 2.72 | | Price, TB | 178 2/3 | 2.87 | | Wilson, Tex | 177 | 3.10 | | Weaver, LA | 189 | 3.14 | | Sabathia, NY | 209 | 3.14 |
In order to give pitchers credit for quantity of innings pitched as well as quality, Pete Palmer introduced the Pitching Runs statistic in 1984. Pitching Runs tells us the number of runs saved by a pitcher compared to league average. In it’s purest form, it is based on a pitcher’s IP and earned runs (ER) and the league ERA (Lg ERA):
Pitching Runs = IP x Lg ERA/9 – ER.
The Baseball-Reference version also adjusts for ballpark. Hernandez has 39 Pitching Runs (See Table 2) which means that he has saved his team 39 runs compared to what the average pitcher would have saved in his place. Because his greater workload is taken into account, Hernandez leads Buchholz by 7.7 runs. Sabathia is only 10th in the league with 19.5.
Table 2: AL Pitching Runs Leaders
| Pitcher | IP | Pitching Runs | | Hernandez, Sea | 219 1/3 | 39.0 | | Buchholz, Bos | 151 | 31.3 | | Price, TB | 178 2/3 | 24.6 | | Cahill, Oak | 165 2/3 | 23.9 | | Wilson, Tex | 177 | 22.2 | | Weaver, LA | 189 | 21.3 | | Lester, Bos | 182 | 20.9 | | Liriano, Min | 172 1/3 | 19.9 | | Gonzalez, Oak | 179 2/3 | 19.7 | | Sabathia, NY | 209 | 19.5 |
A shortcoming of both ERA and Pitching Runs is that the don’t consider defensive support behind a pitcher. The WAR statistic developed by Sean Smith and listed at Baseball-Reference attempts to take fielding into account. WAR is calculated as follows: -
Determine how many runs a pitcher allowed.
-
Calculate average runs allowed by pitchers facing the same teams for the same number of innings as the pitcher of interest.
-
Adjust for team defensive runs saved based on Total Zone. Total Zone is computed from plays made, errors, which fielders fielded each out and hit, batted ball type, handedness of pitcher and batter, and park adjustments.
-
Multiply by 1.22 to get replacement level for an AL starter.
-
Subtract (4) from (2) to get WAR.
Table 3 shows that Felix Hernandez was the clear leader in WAR with 5.7. This says that Hernandez contributed close to six wins more than you would expect from a replacement level player. Sabathia is 10th in the league with 4 WAR.
Table 3: AL Starting Pitcher WAR Leaders
| Pitcher | WAR | | Hernandez, Sea | 5.7 | | Weaver, LA | 4.8 | | Buchholz, Bos | 4.8 | | Liriano, Min | 4.7 | | Wilson, Tex | 4.6 | | Price, TB | 4.6 | | Pavano, Min | 4.4 | | Lester, Bos | 4.3 | | Danks, Chi | 4.2 | | Sabathia, NY | 4.0 |
Based on ERA, Pitching Runs and WAR and every other statistic other than wins, Hernandez appears to be the superior pitcher to Sabathia this year. It will be very interesting to see how the vote turns out if Sabathia wins 20+ and Hernandez wins only 11 to 13 games.
Edit: St. Pierre did not actually score the winning run. Brennan Boesch pinch ran for him and he scored the run.
I’ve been to a lot of minor league parks over the years. I have followed Tigers prospects in Lowell, MA, Manchester, NH, Pawtucket, RI, Oneonta, NY and Lakeland, FL among other places. I’ve even attended some Arizona Fall League games. I typically go specifically to watch the top prospects like Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Curtis Granderson and Cameron Maybin. I could not help but notice though that, for the longest time, I’ve been penciling Maxim St. Pierre’s name into box scores.
There is a reason it seems that Max has been around forever. He was drafted by the Tigers in the 26th round of the First Year Player draft in June, 1997. The Montreal native has spent the last14 years in the minors – 13 in the Tigers system – without ever playing a game in the majors. He has made stops with the Gulf Coast League Tigers, Oneonta, West Michigan, Lakeland, Erie, Toledo and Huntsville (one year with the Brewers). How long is 14 years? When he was drafted in 1997, Raul Casanova was the Tigers regular catcher that year.
Earlier in the week, St. Pierre finally realized his dream when the Tigers recalled him for the final month of the season. With Laird battling a sore back, the Tigers felt they could use a third catcher as rosters expanded. The 30-year-old St. Pierre has had a good season batting a combined .274/.353/.479 for Erie and Toledo and is a strong defender. Just as important, the out-of-contention Tigers are rewarding him for his many years of service.
Today, Max played in his first major league game. The pitcher was Rick Porcello, who was eight years old when St. Pierre signed with the Tigers organization. St. Pierre grounded out to shortstop in his first major league at bat. He failed to hit in his first three at bats, but got one more chance in the eighth with the score tied at four. The rookie catcher responded by poking a single to center field. He eventually came around to score what proved to be the winning run in a 6-4 win over the Royals.
The Tigers have had a lot of rookies get their first major league hits this year – Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch and Casper Wells to name a few. But St. Pierre’s first hit was more special than any of them.
There has been much discussion on the internet about Jhonny Peralta’s potential role on the Tigers in 2011. He has a club option that would pay him $7 million next year. If they want him back, they can either allow the option to kick in or decline the option and try to sign him at a lower salary. The other question is whether he would play third base or shortstop.
With Brandon Inge’s contract coming to an end after this season, the Tigers could replace him with Peralta. According to the Fan Graphs weighted runs created statistic (wRC or RC), Peralta has 57.7 RC in 506 Plate appearances (PA) this year. Over 650 PA, that would be 74 RC. Similarly, Inge’s 52.5 RC over 466 PA translates into 73 RC over a full season. So, there is only a one run difference between the two. Performing similar calculations on 2009 data yields 65 RC for Peralta and 70 RC for Inge. So, based on the last two seasons, Peralta would not be an upgrade over Inge offensively.
Defensively, I’ll look at the Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) over 2009-2010 because it’s always a good idea to use multiple fielding measures and multiple years when evaluating defense. Peralta had the following numbers at in 2009-2010:
DRS –4 +2 UZR –2 –4
Averaging those together yields an estimate of 0 defensive runs saved. Now for Inge:
DRS +8 -1 UZR +7 +3
That averages out to +4 runs saved. So, I’ll estimate that Inge is 4 runs better than Peralta defensively. Peralta is only one run better offensively this year, so he’s clearly not an upgrade overall. They are probably better off with Inge at third for next year, but it’s not a big difference.
What about Peralta at shortstop. Would you rather have Peralta or Ramon Santiago/ Danny Worth? Some of you might be thinking “none of the above”, but let’s look at those two options. The table below looks at the runs created numbers for the three shortstops in 2010.
| Player | PA | RC | | Peralta | 506 | 57.7 | | Santiago | 334 | 34.6 | | Worth | 115 | 9.7 |
We saw above that Peralta would have 74 RC over 650 PA. Suppose, we give 400 PA to Santiago and 250 to Worth. Their estimated RC are in the following Table
| Player | PA | RC | | Peralta | 650 | 74 | | Santiago | 400 | 42 | | Worth | 250 | 21 |
Over a combined 650 PA, Santiago and Worth would have 63 RC. That is 11 runs fewer than Peralta. Do Santiago and Worth make up for it defensively? We are dealing with a lot of small sample sizes here, so I’ll go back five years. First, Peralta:
DRS –6 –6 –2 –6 +5 UZR –6 –11 –12 –1 +3
That averages to –4 runs which Peralta cost his team. Now, Santiago:
DRS +1 +8 –6 –2 +9 UZR +2 +3 0 –1 +6
That comes out to +2 runs saved on average. The data on Worth is too limited, so I’ll assume that he is average defensively, which based on observation and reputation seems fair. So, let’s say that Santiago/Worth are +1 defensively. That makes them five runs better than Peralta. Combine that with the offense and Peralta is six runs better.
My conclusion is that the 2009-2010 version of Peralta would not be an upgrade at third base, but would be a slight upgrade at shortstop assuming his defense does not fall off a cliff. Now, if Peralta can get back to his 90 RC production of 2008, then he would be a big upgrade at either position. My original thought was that he would be ok at third but not at shortstop. I'm still leery of the Tigers using a below average defender at shortstop and I hope they look elsewhere. However, it looks like shortstop might actually be a better idea than third base.
After getting shelled in four consecutive starts and seeing his ERA balloon to 7.29, Max Scherzer was sent to triple-A Toledo after his May 14 start to work on his mechanics. He pitched two games for the MudHens and apparently learned a lot. He returned to the Tigers with a bang on May 30. In that game, he struckout a career high 14 batters in 5 2/3 scoreless innings. In 17 starts since his recall – essentially half a season – the twenty-six-year-old right-hander has compiled a 2.20 ERA in 110 2/3 innings. As seen is Table 1, this ranks him fourth in the American League over that period. Table 1 – AL ERA Leaders, May 30 – August 28
| Pitcher | ERA | | Buchholz, Bos | 1.88 | | Hernandez, Sea | 1.90 | | Cahill, Oak | 2.17 | | Scherzer, Det | 2.20 | | Sabathia, NY | 2.32 | | Wilson, Tex | 2.72 | | Floyd, Chi | 2.74 | | Morrow, Tor | 3.09 | | Lester, Bos | 3.11 | | Lee, Sea/Tex | 3.27 | Max has been striking out batters at a rate of 9.4 per nine innings (K/9) since May 30, which ranks him fifth in the league (Table 2). This is nothing new for Scherzer, who had 9.5 k/9 in 226 1/3 innings prior to 2010. Teammate Justin Verlander is also among the leaders with 8.7 K/9 since May 30. Table 2 – AL K/9 IP Leaders, May 30 – August 28 | Pitcher | K/9 | | Morrow, Tor | 10.3 | | Liriano, Min | 10.2 | | Weaver, LA | 9.8 | | Price, TB | 9.6 | | Scherzer, Det | 9.4 | | Lewis, Tex | 9.0 | | Verlander, Det | 8.7 | | Hernandez, Sea | 8.6 | | Matsuzaka, Bos | 8.4 | | Greinke, KC | 8.1 | One area where Scherzer still struggles at times is control. He has walked 3.5 batters per nine innings since May 30 and also for the season. This has made it difficult for him to consistently pitch deep into games. He pitched six or more innings in just nine of his first 19 starts. In his last six starts, however, he has pitched 6+ innings each time and 7+ innings four times. He has walked just 12 batters in 41 1/3 innings during that span. Beyond control, the one other thing Scherzer needs to prove is that he can pitch strong for 200 innings a season. He has pitched 152 2/3 innings this year and made it through 170 1/3 innings in 2009. He has certainly been dominant over the past 17 starts though and showing no signs of fatigue. Statistics for this article were abstracted from BaseballMusings.com Day-by-Day Database
For the eighth year, Tom Tango is conducting his fan scouting report on fielding skills. The results of this survey are a very valuable resource so I'm encouraging all knowledgeable fans who watch a lot of Detroit Tigers games to participate. The survey asks fans to rate the fielding skills of players on their favorite teams just based on observation. You will be asked not to use any stats at all and also not to vote based on what somebody else told you. Just use your own eyes as if you were a scout. The results were very interesting and informative last year but a large sample size is needed in order for them to be useful again this year. Some of the results appear in the Bill James Handbook which comes out every November. So, I urge all of you to complete the ballot.
I think most readers of this blog understand the problems with using fielding percentage as a measure of individual or team defense, but I still see a lot of people using it in various places (e.g. television broadcasts and message boards). So, I’ll review its limitations before moving on to better measures. First, fielding percentage is the proportion of a team’s total chances (putouts, assists and errors) which result in either a putout or an assist. The Tigers currently have a .982 fielding percentage which means they have avoided errors on 98.2% of their chances. That ranks them 19th in the majors.
One issue with fielding percentage is that error totals can be influenced by the subjectivity of official scorers. An official scorer might occasionally give the home team’s fielders and hitters the benefit of the doubt by awarding hits on plays that might be called errors by another scorer. Over the course of a season, this could influence a team’s fielding percentage.
Even if we assume that there is no scorer bias and that all scorers judge plays the same way, fielding percentage is still fundamentally flawed. The problem is that it only penalizes fielders for errors made and does not charge them for balls that they can not reach. It tells us nothing about the amount of ground covered by players and does not consider the difficulty of plays made or not made.
When Bill James introduced the defensive efficiency ratio (DER) statistic in the 1978 Baseball Abstract, it was the first time team defense had been formerly quantified in terms of range instead of errors. DER is the proportion of batted balls in play, not including home runs, which are converted to outs by a team’s fielders. For example, the Tigers have a .688 DER this year which means they have turned 68.8% of balls in play into outs.
The Tigers are 19th in the majors in DER which matches the fielding percentage rank. However, some teams rank quite differently on the two statistics. The Oakland Athletics, for example, are first in DER, but only 13th in fielding percentage. On the other hand, The Astros rank 29th in DER but 14th in fielding percentage. So, the Athletics are a much better fielding team than the Astros, but fielding percentage makes them look like equals.
DER is limited because it does not consider factors such as types of batted balls allowed by the team’s pitchers (e.g. ground balls, fly balls), location of batted balls, how hard the ball was hit, handedness of pitcher and batter, and home ballpark. The Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) statistic introduced by Mitchel Lichtman in 2003 further refines the measurement of fielding by considering all those factors. The Tigers have a UZR of +8.5 which means they have saved 8.5 runs compared to what you’d expect from the average team.
The Tigers rank 10th in MLB in UZR, but that’s a little deceptive as UZR does not include pitchers and the the Tigers pitchers have not fielded very well this year. A similar statistic which does include pitchers is Defensive Runs Saved or DRS (John Dewan, The Fielding Bible – Volume II). The Tigers have a DRS of +2 with places them 19th in the majors. The Tigers pitchers have a combined DRS of –14 which means they cost their team 14 runs versus what you’d expect from an average team. Poor fielding by pitchers is why the Tigers ranks worse on DRS than UZR.
The Tigers ranked 9th in DER, 8th in UZR and 7th in DRS in 2009. So, their fielding is clearly not as good this year as it was last year. Their DRS in 2009 was +40, so, according to that measure, Tigers fielders have cost their team 38 more runs this year over last year. Since, 10 extra runs is worth approximately one win, we can say that their defense is four wins worse this year.
Yesterday, we saw that run scoring in Major League Baseball has sharply decreased since 2000 and that runs per game in the American League has returned to early 1990s levels. Today, we’ll explore trends in statistics that contribute to runs scoring. For the sake of simplicity, we will consider Major League Baseball as a whole, rather than divide into leagues. As shown in Figure 1, the Home runs per game in MLB have dropped from a peak of 1.17 in 2000 to 0.95 in 2010, a decreased of 19%. That is a significant drop in ten years and the result is a more balanced game. The home run rate in 2010 was the lowest since 0.89 in 1993.
Batting average (Figure 2) has also been on the decline, but not as dramatically as home runs. The .259 batting average in 2010 is about 4% lower than the .270 mark in 2000. The last time the MLB batting average was below .260 was in 1992 when batters hit a combined .256.  In Figure 3, we see that bases on balls don’t have the same trend as homers and batting average. After soaring to 3.68 in 1999 and 3.75 in 2000, walks per game have remained fairly steady between 2001-2010. It’s possible that the spike in 1999-2000 was an over reaction to the high homer totals in those years. 
The most interesting trend shows up in Figure 4. While batting average and homeruns have been going down, strikeouts have been increasing. In fact, the 6.97 strikeouts per game in 2010 is the highest rate in history. Strikeouts have been generally rising since 1978 when there were 4.77 per game. That 46% increase between 1978-2010 is huge. I think it shows the ever growing emphasis on power hitting and power pitching. You would think that as homers become more scarce, we would see more of a contact approach to both pitching and hitting but this hasn’t happened for four decades. 
You probably noticed that the Tigers are not scoring a lot of runs in 2010. Indeed, they are averaging just 4.34 runs per game (RPG). However, there are a lot of teams not scoring runs this year. A total of five teams in the American League have scored fewer runs than the Tigers and the league average is only 4.47 RPG. That is down 7.3% from 2009 when the league averaged 4.82 runs.
While there is year to year variation, the chart below shows that there has been a general downward trend in run scoring over the past decade. AL offense is down 10.0% from from 2006 (4.97 RPG) and 15.7% from the height of the home run derby era in 2000 (5.30 RPG).
Offense is also declining in the National League but not by quite as much. There have been 4.36 runs per game in the NL this year which is not much different from the 4.43 RPG in 2009. Over time, run production in the senior circuit is down 8.4% since 2006 (4.76 RPG) and 12.8% since 2000 (5.00 RPG).
 The reason for the sharper decline in AL could just be random variation, In other words, it could just be a down year for offense in the AL. It will take a couple more years to see if the offensive output of the two leagues has really become that close. If it is a real trend, one explanation might be that AL teams are trying to keep up with the The Yankees by emphasizing defense, which has become cheaper than offense in recent years. Regardless of any differences between the leagues, it is clear that the we have come a long way since the crazy offense of ten years ago. In fact, fewer runs have scored in 2010 than any year since 1992 (4.32 RPG in the AL and 3.88 in the NL). What we have today is a more balanced game between run scoring and run prevention than we had in 2000. I believe this makes for a more entertaining game with a greater variety of teams and types of players.
Armando Galarraga faced the Indians tonight for the first time since his famous imperfect game on June 2. He started off right where he left off retiring the first 14 batters he faced. That made it 42 straight Indians set down by Galarraga. After Brandon Inge made an outstanding play on a smash to the left side to retire Shelley Duncan for out number 14, you had to start wondering whether this might be another special night for Armando. The streak came to an end though when Jayson Nix hit a double just off the outstretched glove of Don Kelly in deep left. Galarraga was outstanding in pitching seven scoreless innings. In fact it was one of his best games of his career. He allowed just three hits, walked nobody and tied a career high with eight strikeouts. Was it something that Alex Avila said? We'll never know what kind of an effect the dugout spat with Avila had on Galarraga but he He was certainly pitching into the zone more aggressively than he has in many past games. Gerald Laird was the catcher in today's game by the way. It was an easy win tonight, something that hasn't happened very often this year even when they were winning in the first half. Donald Kelly had four hits and Brandon Inge and Austin Jackson three apiece to pace a 16 hit attack. The only Tiger without a hit was Johnny Damon. The Tigers are finally done with their long stretch of games versus the top teams in the league. They failed miserably during that time. Hopefully, they can now finish the season in somewhat respectable fashion against an easier schedule.
On July 21-22, the Tigers beat the Rangers and Blue Jay's in consecutive games and were just two games behind the first place Chicago White Sox. It took them more than three weeks to win back-to-back games again. After beating the White Sox 3-2 on a two-run homer in the ninth by Alex Avila last night, the Tigers out slugged the Sox 13-8 this afternoon. The wins leave the Tigers in third place 10 1/2 games behind the Twins. It was a seesaw game today which saw the Tigers jump out to an early 5-1 lead, fall behind 7-5, and then come back to win it. The weak hitting Tigers erupted for 16 hits including eight extra-base hits today. Jhonny Peralta hit a pair of homers and Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Raburn had one apiece. Johhny Damon also had a big day belting a double and a triple. Raburn heating up Ryan Raburn has claimed the regular left field job with some hot hitting this month. After a disappointing first half of the season, he has finally found his stroke. Raburn has batted .327/.277/.694 in 14 games this month. This is the second straight season he has hit well late in the season after a disappointing start. The key may be that the injury to Magglio Ordonez has given Raburn more consistent playing time.
I generally don't like it when fans talk about the season being over in July or August. It's particularly annoying when that sentiment is expressed when the team is two or three games out of first as the Tigers were until recently. After all, things can turn around fast and unexpectedly in baseball. I'm not one to ever give up while the Tigers are still mathematically in contention, but realistically they have little chance of getting back into the race this year. Now ten games behind the White Sox and 8 1/2 behind the second place Twins, it's time to start thinking about 2011 at least a little bit. So, today, I'll take a position by position look at which players might be back next year. CatcherGerald Laird has been very disappointing this year to say the least. He is batting .185 with little power and even has defense has declined. He is on the last year of his contract and I don't expect him back next year. Alex Avila has also been a disappointment, although he might have been rushed in an effort to add a left-handed bat to the team. I still think the Tigers view him as the catcher of the future though and he should be back next year. They will likely get a veteran catcher to split time with Avila. First baseThere's much to talk about here. Miguel Cabrera be back for at least the next five years Second baseRight now, Carlos Guillen, Will Rhymes and Scott Sizemore are potential second basemen for 2011. Sizemore has been slowed by injuries (ankle and hip) this year and has likely never been fully healthy all season. He has hit well at triple-A but not in the majors. Assuming they don't get a replacement outside the organization, Sizemore is probably the favorite to win the position next year, but he won't be guaranteed a starting job as he was last spring. Given his health history, they certainly can't count on Guillen to be the regular second baseman. There is a chance they might eat the final year of his contract but I think he'll return as a designated hitter and back up second baseman. Jim Leyland likes the scrappy Rhymes but I think his ultimate role will be backup infielder. Third baseBrandon Inge is in the final year of his contract and Jhonny Peralta is in his final guaranteed year. There is little chance that the Tigers will exercice Peralta's $ 7 million option. They may try to bring him back at a reduced salary, but I think there is a better chance that they re-sign Inge. Although his range has declined since he hurt his knees last year, Inge is still the superior fielder and there is not much difference between the two offensively. ShortstopPeralta is playing shortstop at the moment, but is not a good defender at that position so I doubt he's a real option there for next year. Danny Worth is a strong defender but I don't know if he'll hit well enough to be a regular. The Tigers have long believed that Ramon Santiago does not have the durability to be a regular so, he'll continue as a backup and a very good one. I suspect, they will push hard to obtain a shortstop in a trade. Right fieldUntil recently, Brennan Boesch was once the most appealing option in right field but it's hard to know what to make of a player who hit like Vladimir Guerrero in the first half and a double-A hitter since the all-star break. Whether or not he can make the adjustments down the stretch will determine whether he'll go into next season as a starting corner outfielder. They certainly need a young left-handed hitter badly, so he'll be one of the players to watch the rest of the season. The injury to Magglio Ordonez means that his $15 million option for 2011 will not automatically vest. They may try to sign him at a lower salary but, given that his agent is Scott Boras, that won't happen easily. He'll probably be a late off-season signing and there is a good season the Tiger swill be heavily involved in that drama. How hard they'll push may depend on Boesch. Center fieldAustin Jackson has been one of the few consistent bright spots this season and should be the starting center fielder for years to come. Left fieldJohnny Damon is finishing a one year deal and probably won't be a top priority in the off-season. It's not that he has been bad, but he'll be 37 next year and the market for 37-year-old designated hitters is not strong. I think the Tigers will try hard to obtain a left-handed corner outfielder from outside the organization.
Self promotion is one of the necessary evils of a self published book, so I'm going to post another review of my book Beyond Batting Average. This time, Charles Euchner, author of Nine Innings and other books was kind enough to say a few words. Here is what he had to say: Mathematicians see beauty and truth in numbers. They see an inner logic, a simplicity that captures life's ineffable complexity. Baseball fans have always loved numbers too. As a kid -- before ESPN and regional sports networks -- I remember studying the box scores to recreate the previous day's games. (I wish box scores still abbreviated the long names of players like this: "Ystrzski.") But the PC and the Internet have brought baseball statistics to a sublime new height, which makes my youthful number-gazing seem as sophisticated as Hop On Pop. In Beyond Batting Average, Lee Panas brings baseball's bold new world of statistical analysis to life. He is comprehensive, clear, and even clever. He examines every aspect of the game -- hitting, pitching, fielding, special situations, team-building -- with fairness and enthusiasm. The task is not simple, because statistics can lie as well as reveal hidden truths. Like other serious baseball people, Panas is on a mission, to find baseball's digital version of the Holy Grail. But he also understands that the game changes constantly, so that Grail will forever elude our reach. Change and constancy, of course, are two values we baseball fans embrace. Let's all get up and give Lee Panas a wave around the stadium (I know some purists loathe waves, but I love 'em) for his all-star effort. --Charles Euchner, author, The Last Nine Innings
The Tigers have announced that Brandon Inge has returned to the team and that Danny Worth has been placed on the disabled list with a bruised left heel. When Inge was hit by a pitch which broke his hand two weeks ago, the initial estimate from the team was that he would be out four to six weeks. He's back two weeks earlier than the lower end of that estimate. In the past, Inge has tried to play through injuries and it hurt the team. The most prominent example was his trying to play through knee tendinitis the second half of last hear. Let's hope he's ready this time. With Inge back on third base, newly acquired Jhonny Peralta will take over the shortstop position. Rookie Will Rhymes will remain at second base until Carlos Guillen (strained calf) returns next week. Ramon Santiago will return to his familiar backup role. Inge, Peralta and Guillen are their best offensive options around the infield. Inge will help their defense but Guillen and Peralta will open up holes in the middle of the infield. The pitcher who is likely to be hurt the most by poor infield defense is Rick Porcello (47.6% groundball rate). Most of their starters - Jeremy Bonderman (41.5% ), Justin Verlander (39.7%), Armando Galarraga (39.4%) - and Max Scherzer (39.1%) - have been predominantly fly ball pitchers this year. Still, no pitcher benefits from lack of range in the infield. The hope is that Guillen and Peralta can make up for their defensive deficiencies with their offense.
I went to the Tigers game at Fenway Park and it was a great day despite the outcome of the game. First, I was interviewed before the game by Detroit Tigers broadcaster Dan Dickerson. The interview was about my book Beyond Batting Average and baseball statistics in general. It will be aired on Sunday's pre-game show (on WXYT in Detroit). I think the interview went pretty well but I haven't heard it yet. So, we'll see how it sounds. I almost didn't make it. First, there was a major delay on the subway. Then, I was supposed to meet Dan at 2:00 but they wouldn't let fans in until 2:10. I tried to tell Fenway security that I was supposed to be at an interview with the Tigers broadcaster at 2:00 but they either weren't buying it or didn't care. Probably both. I thought I was going to miss an opportunity I had been anticipating for a long time. Anyway, I finally got in the park and met Dan in the stands at about 2:20. I was a wreck at that point but Dan is the type of guy that puts you at ease right away. So that helped a lot. Still, I think I would have blanked out if I had not prepared so much ahead of time. I also got a chance to meet Samara Pearlstein for the first time. Many of you know her as the author of the great blog Roar of the Tigers. She also did all the illustrations for my book. I'm sure she will put up her usual photographs of the game and she even took a couple of me. So, you will get to see my mustache for the first (and maybe last) time. For one thing, it certainly isn't creating any good karma for the Tigers. The best part of the actual viewing of the game was not surprisingly Miguel Cabrera. He put on an awesome show in batting practice. He even had the Red Sox fans cheering and he took a bow afterward. He then hit a rocket in the first inning that cleared everything in left field. Max Scherzer pitched a fine game as well. Needless to say, the game did not end well. Being surrounded by 30,000 hysterical Red Sox fans dancing and chanting "Papi Papi" for ten minutes after the game is an experience I would not wish on any Tigers fan! Regardless, it was a good day at the ballpark.
The Tigers acquired Jhonny Peralta from the Cleveland Indians today for minor league pitcher Giovanni Soto. Peralta is a 28-year-old third baseman who is batting .246/.308/.389 so far this year. The converted shortstop appeared to be headed for stardom when he posted a .886 OPS at age 23 in 2005. After two down years, he then had an OPS of .804 in 2008. However, his OPS has been below .700 each of the last two years. He will presumably take over third base while Brandon Inge is on the the disabled list with a broken hand. When Inge returns in another month or so, Peralta may switch to shortstop if he hits. He's not a good defensive shortstop though, so it would be hard to justify bumping Ramon Santiago and Danny Worth if he continues to struggle offensively. The Tigers have a $7 million option on Peralta for next year, but it's hard to see them exercising it at this point. Soto is a soft tossing left-hander who had a 2.61 ERA and 76/25 K/BB ratio at low single-A Western Michigan this year. He is only 19 years old and still has time to increase his velocity, but TigsTown.com currently has him ranked as only the 36th best prospect in the Tigers system.
Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez have been placed on the disabled list and infielders Jeff Larish and Will Rhymes have been added to the 25 man roster. Guillen left today's game with a strained calf and Ordonez left with a broken ankle. The injuries to Guillen, Ordonez and Brandon Inge have left the Tigers with a very young inexperienced roster. Nine of their 13 position players spent time in the minors either last year or this year. Only Miguel Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Gerald Laird and Ramon Santiago have been in the majors for all of 2009-2010. Rhymes is a 5-9 155 pound second baseman, who has been described as the David Eckstein of the minors. The left-handed batter hit .304/.367/.414 for Toledo this season. He also had a 33/31 BB/K ratio in 336 at bats and 20 steals. Jeff Larish is a slugging corner infielder who was batting .275/.373/.497 for the MudHens. He was hitting .304 with 10 homers in June-July.
Magglio Ordonez left tonight's game after the third inning with a fractured ankle and will be out six to eight weeks. His ankle had already been bothering him and he was being used as a designated hitter to reduce the risk of further injury. However, he twisted his ankle sliding into home on a double by Miguel Cabrera in the bottom of the third. He had to be helped off the field and x-rays revealed the bad news later. The Ordonez injury combined with Brandon Inge's broken hand may be too much to overcome for a team trying to stay in the race in the American League Central division. They already have five rookies playing regularly and will likely call up another tomorrow. Possibilities include Ryan Strieby, Casper Wells and Wilkin Ramirez. This could also mean more playing time for Ryan Raburn and Donny Kelly. The line-up is not looking good at all right now. This week's injuries will probably alter what they will try to as the trading deadline approaches. Much of the talk has centered around acquiring a starting pitcher such as Danny Haren or Ted Lilly. There has also been talk about relievers, although specific names have not been mentioned seriously. They might now shift their attention to hitters. One possibility would be to move Carlos Guillen back to DH, Johnny Damon to left field and Scott Sizemore to second base and to acquire a new third baseman. Of course, they might also decide that they are no longer serious contenders and stand pat. They could spend the rest of the season finding out which young players are ready for next year. Another thing to think about is Magglio Ordonez's contract. His 2011 option will vest if he reaches 135 starts or 540 plate appearances in 2010 or 270 starts and 1,080 plate appearances in 2009-2010. He has only 84 starts and 365 starts so far this season, which makes it virtually impossible for his option to vest. This means the Tigers will be able to shed his $15 million contract, or at least sign him at a lower salary. With the end of contracts of Ordonez, Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, Johnny Damon, Gerald Laird and Brandon Inge brings, over 60 million will be coming off the books after the season. A couple of those players may be back at lower salaries, but I think we can expect a lot of wheeling and dealing this off-season. For now though, the injury is a big blow to their chances to contend for the division title. It could lead to a disappointing rest of the summer for Tigers fans. All we can do is wait and see how things unfold starting with the player they call up for tomorrow's doubleheader.
It's been well documented that Miguel Cabrera has a chance to be the first Triple Crown winner (league leader in batting average, home runs and Runs Batted In) in Major League Baseball since Red Sox outfielder Carl Yastremski accomplished the feat in 1967. Cabrera's .347 batting average is second in the league to Rangers slugger Josh Hamilton (.354). His 24 homer's are second to Jose Baustista of the Blue Jays (26) . He leads the league in RBI with 85. So, he is certainly within reach of winning all three categories . Cabrera also ranks well on some of the more modern statistics: He leads in slugging average (.650) and OPS (1.070). He is second in OBP (.420) to Twins first Baseman Justin Morneau (.437). If we compare his OPS to league average and adjust for home ballpark, we get his adjusted OPS+. An OPS+ of 100 is league average. An OPS+ of more than 100 is better than average and an OPS+ of less than 100 is worse than average. Keeping in mind that it's difficult to assign a ballpark effect to Target Field in Minnesota at this early stage, Cabrera is currently second to Morneau in OPS+ (181 versus 182). A limitation of OPS+ is that it weights OBP and slugging equally. In actuality, OBP is more important than slugging and should carry more weight. It has been determine from the results of thousands of games that the following linear weights are more appropriate: single 0.47 double 0.77 triple 1.04 home run 1.40 walk 0.31 HBP 0.34 Based on that, we can arrive at a batters runs created (wRC). Cabrera has 84.7 wRC which is second to Hamilton at 85.8. Adjusted Runs Created (wRC+) is the linear weights version of OPS+ and is interpreted the same way. Cabrera is second to Morneau in wRC+ (181 to 185). I used OPS+ and wRC+ to compare Cabrera's 2010 season so far to the best seasons in Tigers history. Table 1 below lists the top seasons according to OPS+. Not surprisingly, Ty Cobb dominates the list with nine of the top 11 seasons. His OPS+ in those years ranged from 209 in 1917 to 185 in 1915. His supremacy is interrupted only by Norm Cash (201 in 1961) and Harry Heilmann (194 in 1923). Cabrera's current 181OPS+ ranks him 12th on the list. For those who are curious, Magglio ordonez had a 166 OPS+ in 2007. Table 1: Top OPS+ seasons in Tigers history | Rank | Player | Year | OPS+ | | 1 | Ty Cobb | 1917 | 209 | | 2 | Ty Cobb | 1910 | 206 | | 3 | Norm Cash | 1961 | 201 | | 4 | Ty Cobb | 1912 | 200 | | 5 | Ty Cobb | 1911 | 196 | | 6 | Harry Heilmann | 1923 | 194 | | 7 | Ty Cobb | 1913 | 194 | | 8 | Ty Cobb | 1909 | 194 | | 9 | Ty Cobb | 1918 | 193 | | 10 | Ty Cobb | 1914 | 190 | | 11 | Ty Cobb | 1915 | 185 | | 12 | Miguel Cabrera | 2010 | 181 | | 13 | Harry Heilmann | 1927 | 180 | | 14 | Ty Cobb | 1916 | 179 | | 15 | Al Kaline | 1967 | 176 | | 16 | Roy Cullenbine | 1946 | 176 |
Table 2 lists the top Tigers seasons according to wRC+. Cobb is even more dominant on this list taking nine of the top ten spots. Cash's 1961 season is the only interruption. Cabrera ranks #15 on this list behind ten seasons of Cobb, Cash, Heilmann's 1923 and 1927 seasons and Roy Cullenbine in 1946. There is still a lot of baseball to be played this season but if Cabrera can keep up the same pace, it will be one of the best seasons ever by a Tiger not named Cobb. Table 2: Top wRC+ Seasons in Tigers history | Rank | Player | Year | wRC+ | | 1 | Ty Cobb | 1917 | 219 | | 2 | Ty Cobb | 1910 | 219 | | 3 | Ty Cobb | 1911 | 210 | | 4 | Ty Cobb | 1909 | 209 | | 5 | Ty Cobb | 1913 | 203 | | 6 | Norm Cash | 1961 | 200 | | 7 | Ty Cobb | 1912 | 200 | | 8 | Ty Cobb | 1915 | 200 | | 9 | Ty Cobb | 1918 | 200 | | 10 | Ty Cobb | 1914 | 197 | | 11 | Harry Heilmann | 1923 | 196 | | 12 | Ty Cobb | 1916 | 193 | | 13 | Roy Cullenbine | 1946 | 192 | | 14 | Harry Heilmann | 1927 | 187 | | 15 | Miguel Cabrera | 2010 | 181 | | 16 | Al Kaline | 1967 | 181 |
Rookie Scott Sizemore has been recalled from Toledo to replace Brandon Inge at third base. He has played only four games at third base, but the Tigers don't have any better options in their system. My original thought was that Sizemore would play second with Carlos Guillen switching to third. Apparently the Tigers either don't think Guiillen has the arm to play third or just don't want to move him to yet another position in the middle of the season. I'm sure they are hoping that Sizemore can blossom as a hitter while playing a passable third base. While Sizemore will be a substantial downgrade defensively at third, he has potential as a hitter. He began the season as the Tigers starting second baseman but struggled at the plate with a .586 OPS in 97 at bats. However, he excelled at triple-A Toledo batting .329 with a .392 OBP and 19 extra base hits in 41 games. This is not likely to be a permanent shift. If he has a future as a major league regular, it will almost surely be at second base.
Brandon Inge was hit by a pitch by Rangers right-hander Scott Feldman tonight and left the game with a broken finger. The early word is that he'll be out four to six weeks. This is a big blow to the Tigers who already had a few other holes they were trying to fill before the July 31trading deadline. He was replaced by Don Kelly tonight, but that won't be a permanent arrangement. There are a couple of possible directions they could go. What I would like to see them do is bring up second baseman Scott Sizemore (.333/,395/.509 for Toledo) and move Carlos Guillen to third base. Sizemore is a better second baseman than Guillen and Guillen won't hurt them anymore at third than second. Since I think that Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland will be reluctant to move Guillen to yet another new position, a more likely scenario would be to call up Jeff Larish (.273/.368./.505 for Toledo). The problem I see with this move is that you end up with below average defenders at both second and third. The third possibility would be to acquire a third baseman in a trade, but they are already looking for help in the starting rotation, the bullpen and shortstop. If they do look to acquire a third baseman, possible targets include Pedro Feliz and Ty Wgginton. I'm sure we'll find out more tomorrow.
The Indians beat the Tigers 7-2 today to complete a four game sweep of the Tigers. Jeanmar Gomez held them to two unearned runs in seven innings in his first MLB start. It shouldn't have come to a surprise to anyone given how the Tigers have played this series: Here is my summary of the Tigers play this series: 1. Poor pitching except for Rick Porcello 2. Poor fielding 3. Even worse hitting My list of positives: 1. Porcello pitched a great game in the second game of yesterday's doubleheader. There is really nothing else I can come up with. It was just an awful series, the worst of the season for the Tigers. They better get straightened out fast because the schedule is about to get really tough with 30 straight games versus teams which are currently above .500: 3 vs. Rangers 4 vs. Blue Jays 7 vs. Rays 3 vs. Red Sox 6 vs. White Sox 3 vs. Angels 4 vs. Yankees
The one thing the Tigers need more than anything if they are going to remain in contention all year is for Rick Porcello to turn his season around. He was sent down to the minors in June after posting a 6.14 ERA in 13 starts. After four starts in Toledo, the hope is that he'll respond to his triple-A stint anywhere close to as well as Max Scherzer has. Scherzer has a 2.86 ERA and 11 strikeouts per nine innings since returning from a two-game trip to Toledo. Porcello returned to the Tigers rotation with a bang tonight. He threw eight innings of six-hit one-run ball versus the Indians in the second game of a doubleheader. His control was outstanding as he threw 71 of his 99 pitches for balls and walked nobody. He had his sinker working well enough to put up an 11/6 gound out fly out ratio. prior to his demotion, he had a 28/38 GO/FO ratio which isn't going to work for a sinker ball pitcher. In addition to the ground balls, he also had a season high six strikeouts. Some will say that it's only game against a weak hitting Cleveland Indians club and they are correct. However, this is the same team against which Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander have struggled the last two days. The important thing is that Porcello was throwing strikes and inducing grounders, two things he wasn't doing so much earlier in the year.
The Tigers scored three runs off Fausto Carmona in the first inning but stopped right there losing 4-3 to the Indians in the first game of a day night doubleheader. Carmona was not sharp today allowing six batters in the first four innings. However, three doubleplays and some strong Indians defense saved him. Most notably, third baseman Andy Marte made a brilliant play on a shot down the line by Miguel Cabrera with two runners on base and nobody out in the third inning. He turned a two run double into a double play and the Tigers were pretty much done offensively after that point. Justin Verlander also had trouble with control allowing five walks in six innings. His wild pitch with the bases loaded in the sixth inning allowed the tying run to score. It's a ball that Alex Avila could have caught but when your ace allows five walks, you are inviting that sort of thing to happen. Reliever Phil Coke allowed the winning run to score in the seventh on a double by Matt LaPorta, a questionable intentional walk to Shelley Duncan and a single by Trevor Crowe. It's been two consecutive lackluster performances versus a last place team for the Tigers. Rick Porcello, who really needs to get going in the second half, will pitch game two versus Mitch Talbot.
After an all-star break that seemed to last a month, the Tigers were finally back in action today. Unfortunately, they were pounded by the Indians 8-2 at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Austin Kearns and Andy Marte led the Indians ten hit attack with homers. The loss leaves the Tigers a game and a half behind the White Sox pending the outcome of their game with the Twins tonight. Max Scherzer came into the game with a 2.44 ERA and 62/19 K/BB ratio in 51 2/3 innings since returning from Toledo. Tonight, he had control problems walking five batters and throwing 109 pitches in just five innings. He gave up four runs on five hits. Miguel Cabrera extended his hitting streak to a career high 20 games with a first inning single. He gave the Tigers a 1-0 lead at the time. The Tigers mysterious home/road breakdown continues. They are now 32-13 at home and 16-26 on the road. They've got three more games at Cleveland this weekend including a doubleheader tomorrow.
Minnesota came into the series having only five wins in their last 16 games. They had fallen into third place after being in first most of the season. Still, Tigers fans always fear the worst when the Twins come to town. This time the Tigers took game one 7-3 in relatively stress-free fashion. The Bengals jumped out to an early 2-0 lead in the first inning against Twins starter Francisco Liriano. The inning featured three straight singles by the heart of the order - Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera and Brennan Boesch. They added five more in the second thanks to a two-run single by Ordonez and a two-run triple by Carlos Guillen. They led 7-0 after two innings with their ace Justin Verlander on the mound. The Tigers would not score again against four Twins relievers but there was no way Jim Leyland was going to let this one get away. He made two preemptive moves to make sure the Twins would not sneak back into it. When Verlander allowed five straight singles in the sixth to make it 7-2, Leyland immediately removed him. Normally, he would let let Verlander try to work his way out off a mess in the sixth inning of a two-run game but not tonight. Rookie Robbie Weinhardt came into the game with the bases loaded and one out and induced Delmon Young to hit into a double play. The second Leyland decision came in the ninth. Ryan Perry allowed the first two batters to reach in the ninth. In a typical game, Leyland would have left him in there for at least another batter. Tonight though, he brought in closer Jose Valverde with a five-run lead. Valverde allowed a single to J.J. Hardy to make it 7-3 but then retired the final three batters in succession. Tomorrow, night it will be Jeremy Bonderman versus Nick Blackburn. It's a pretty good match-up for the Tigers but if Bonderman pitches the way he has in the last couple of outings, you can bet that the Tigers manager will have a quick hook again. It's an important series and Leyland is going to do everything he can to give them a chance at a series win.
Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson are the two best rookies in the American League so far this season. They are also having the most impressive seasons we've seen among Tigers rookie position players in a long time. Where do they rank on the list of all-time Tigers rookies? To answer this question, I used statistics from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference. Some of statistics used are: - OPS+ = OPS relative to league average adjusting for ballpark: 100 is average; above 100 is better than average; below 100 is worse than average.
- RAA = Runs Above Average = runs contributed above what an average batter would have been expected to contribute given the same number of outs.
- WAR = Wins Above Replacement = the wins a player contributed to his team’s win total above what you would expect from a replacement level player – a theoretical player who could be acquired for league minimum salary.
It’s a challenge to rank players from different eras and the rankings which follow are somewhat subjective. It’s especially difficult to compare players on fielding contribution because the most advanced fielding data are only available for 2002-2010. WAR attempts to include fielding contribution but data prior to retrosheet in 1954 are not very reliable. For earlier years, anecdotal information on fielding is also considered.
Assuming Brennan Boesch continues to hit at the same rate, he would be the best rookie hitter in Tigers history with an OPS+ of 160. However, I have ranked him below Rudy York, who had a 150 OPS+ at the more demanding catching position. I ranked Austin Jackson number five ahead of some better hitters, in part, because of his exceptional fielding at an important defensive position. The top 12 players are included in Table 1. Table 1: Top 10 Rookie Seasons for Tigers Position Players | Rank | Player | Year | Pos | Age | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | RAA | WAR | | 1 | Rudy York | 1937 | C | 23 | 417 | .307 | .375 | .651 | 150 | 34.6 | 4.3 | | 2 | Brennan Boesch | 2010 | LF | 25 | 251 | .341 | .394 | .594 | 160 | 20.4 | 2.5 | | 3 | Dale Alexander | 1929 | 1B | 26 | 700 | .343 | .397 | .580 | 148 | 42.9 | 4.5 | | 4 | Donie Bush | 1909 | SS | 21 | 676 | .273 | .380 | .314 | 114 | 26.1 | 7.4 | | 5 | Austin Jackson | 2010 | CF | 23 | 322 | .307 | .354 | .407 | 103 | 5.2 | 2.2 | | 6 | Dick Wakefield | 1943 | LF | 22 | 697 | .316 | .377 | .434 | 127 | 29.4 | 4.2 | | 7 | Matt Nokes | 1987 | C | 23 | 508 | .289 | .345 | .536 | 135 | 20.8 | 3.6 | | 8 | Barney McCosky | 1939 | CF | 22 | 692 | .311 | .384 | .470 | 100 | 20.6 | 4.2 | | 9 | Lou Whitaker | 1978 | 2B | 21 | 567 | .285 | .361 | .357 | 101 | 4.7 | 3.7 | | 10 | Harvey Kuenn | 1953 | SS | 22 | 731 | .308 | .356 | .386 | 101 | 2.8 | 3.6 | | 11 | Lu Blue | 1921 | 1B | 24 | 709 | .308 | .416 | .427 | 116 | 24.7 | 3.6 | | 12 | Ira Flagstead | 1919 | RF | 25 | 342 | .331 | .416 | .481 | 155 | 24.4 | 3.7 |
Here are some notes on each batter: Rudy York (1937) York blasted 18 home runs in the month of August which is still an American League record. He finished in the American League Top five in slugging (.651), homers (35) and OPS (1.026). York gets extra credit in the ranking for being a catcher. He wound up playing 13 Major League seasons between 1934-1948, most of them with the Tigers. He batted .275, with 277 home runs and a 123 OPS+ in 1,603 games.
Brennan Boesch (2010)
Boesch is fifth in the league in OPS (.988), fourth in batting average (.341), and fourth in slugging (.594). He is the clear favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award in the American League.
Dale Alexander (1929)
Alexander finished in the American League top ten in batting average (.343), slugging (.580) and OPS (.977). He batted .331 in five seasons with the Tigers and Red Sox but was a terrible fielder and was sent to the minors after batting .281 in 1933.
Matt Nokes (1987)
Nokes hit one homer for every 14.4 at bats in 1987, good for fourth best in the league. He also gets extra credit for being a catcher. He played 11 seasons with five major league teams but never again approached the numbers of his rookie season.
Donie Bush (1909)
Bush led the league in games played (157) and walks (88) and finished third in OBP (.380). His rookie season was his best one offensively but he went on to play 16 seasons as a steady shortstop, mostly with the Tigers.
Austin Jackson (2010)
Jackson leads American League center fielders with a .307 batting average and is third in OBP (.354). More importantly, he leads all Major League center fielders in Defensive Runs Saved (+12 runs better than average).
Dick Wakefield (1943)
Wakefield was likely helped somewhat by the diluted talent pool during World War II but he finished second in batting (.316), 6th in OBP (.377) and 5th in slugging (.434). That was his only truly full season but he played nine years mostly with the Tigers and posted a 131 OPS+ in 2,132 career at bats.
Barney McCosky (1939)
McCosky finished 5th in the league in times on base (262), fourth in runs (120) and second in triples (14) while playing a solid center field. He missed three prime years due to World War II but still posted a line of .312/.386/.414 in 11 seasons with four teams.
Lou Whitaker (1978)
Whitaker and Alan Trammell began their long careers as a very strong hitting and fielding keystone combo in 1978. Whitaker batted .285 with a .361 OBP and won the American League Rookie of the Year. He played 19 seasons, all with the Tigers, and batted .276/.363/.426.
Harvey Kuenn (1953)
Kuenn finished sixth in the league with a .308 batting average in 155 games as a shortstop. That performance earned him the American League Rookie of the Year award. Kuenn went on to bat .303 in 15 seasons for five major league teams.
Lu Blue (1921)
Blue walked 103 times to finish second in the league and his .416 OBP was good for eighth. In 13 major league seasons, he walked 1,092 times with only 436 strikeouts.
Ira Flagstead (1919) Flagstead batted a robust .331/.416/.481 with a 153 OPS+ but ranks as low as twelfth on this list because he had only 342 plate appearances in 1919. He played 13 seasons, mostly with the Tigers and Red Sox, and batted .290 with a .370 OBP.
For most of baseball history, baserunning has been measured by stolen bases and caught stealing. Fans and analysts have complained for a long time that there is more to baserunning than stealing bases and that the impact of baserunning has not been measured adequately. For example, a good baserunner will go from first to third on a single or advance from second to third on a fly ball more often than a poor baserunner. With the development of play-by-play databases such as Retrosheet, it is now possible to measure baserunning beyond stolen bases. The most advanced baserunning metric is Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EQBRR) found at at Baseball Prospectus. Developed by former Baseball Prospectus writer and current MLB team statistician Dan Fox, EQBRR takes into account the following types of baserunner advancement: (1) Ground outs (e.g. Runner is on first base with other bases unoccupied and less than two outs and then advances to second on a ground out) (2) Air outs (e.g. Runner is on second base with third base unoccupied and less than two outs and then advances to third on a fly out) (3) Stolen bases, caught stealing and pickoffs. (4) Hits (Runner goes from first to third on a single, second to home on a single or first to home on a double) (5) Other (passed balls, wild pitches, balks) A complex algorithm takes all of the above into consideration in estimating the number of runs which a player contributed to his team above what you would expect from an average baserunner. For those who are interested in the details, the methodology can be found here, here and here. The top baserunners in the American League according to EQBRR in 2010 are listed below: Chone Figgins, Sea 5.9 Elvis Andrus, Tex 5.9 Carl Crawford, TB 5.4 Ben Zobrist, TB 3.6 Brett Gardner, NYA 3.6 Austin Jackson, Det 2.8 Austin Jackson is sixth in the league with an EQBRR of 2.8. This means that he has contributed an estimated 2.8 runs above what the average baserunner would have contributed given the same opportunities. A player's baserunning contribution is generally a lot less than his hitting contribution but some players actually do make a significant impact with their baserunning and it should be considered in determining their overall offensive value. The EQBRRs for all Tigers with 100 or more opportunities for base advancement are listed below: Austin Jackson +2.8 Johnny Damon +2.0 Magglio Ordonez +1.2 Gerald Laird +0.2 Ramon Santiago -0.4 Brandon Inge -0.6 Brennan Boesch -1.2 Miguel Cabrera -1.6 Carlos Guillen -1.7 The biggest surprise on the list might be Ordonez at +1.2. Magglio is not known for his speed on the bases. This result is probably just a fluke as he is usually below average on this statistic. As a team, the Tigers rank third in the league: Tampa Bay 6.6 Texas 6.4 Detroit 1.3 Which team is last in the league? Mike Scioscia's aggressive Angels are 12.4 runs below average. That just goes to show that aggressive baserunning only works when you've got runners who have the ability to execute.
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