Best Outfields Ever

I've been thinking a lot lately about the great Tigers outfielders of the early 20th Century.  Between 1903-1929, Tigers fans watched Hall of Famers Ty Cobb, Sam Crawford and Harry Heilmann and underrated Bobby Veach line balls all over the home fields of Bennett Park and Navin Field.  In many of those years, they had three or even four of these stars on the team at the same time, which led me to wonder how they ranked among the best outfields in the history of the game.

Bill James looked at this question several years ago in writing the New Bill James Historical Abstract.  Using his Win Shares system, he determined that the Tigers did indeed have some of the finest outfield trios ever.  In fact, he ranked their 1915 outfield of Cobb, Crawford and Veach as the best of all time.  We now have access to various Wins Above Replacement (WAR) systems, so I wanted to answer the same question from that perspective. 

First, remember that WAR is an estimate of the number of wins a player contributed to his team's win total above what you would expect from a replacement level player - a player who could be acquired for league minimum salary.  An example of a replacement player would be a player in Triple-A, who is good enouigh to get some time in the majors, but is not regarded as a top prospect.  WAR takes into consideration everything a player does on the field, including hitting, fielding and base running.

I'll be using the WAR system developed by Sean Smith, now a statistician for a major league team.  For most of my analysuis, I used a database I purchased from Sean a couple of years ago.  The data are now housed at Baseball-Reference.  There may be a few small discrepancies between the old database numbers I'm using and Baseball-Reference due to recent upgrades of the sytstem, but nothing that should significantly change the conclusions.  A very accessible explanation of the system can be found at Beyond The Boxscore. 

Basically, what I did was sum the WARs for the three top outfielders on each team each year.  However, I only wanted to include outfielders who were regulars.  I didn't want to include outfields who had two stars and a group of marginal players sharing the third spot.  So, I required that each outfielder have 400 or more plate appearances and played at least half of his games in the outfield.

The 15 top single season WAR totals in the history of the game are shown in Table 1 below.  The 1927 Yankees outfield of Babe Ruth, Earl Combs and Bob Meusel (23.5 total WAR) is the best of all-time according to this statistic.  That means that, theoretically, these outfielders added 23-24 wins to their team above what you'd expect from three replacement level players.  Ruth, Combs and Ben Chapman finished second with 22.4 WAR in 1927. 

The Tigers do not do quite as well here as they did in Bill James's study but they are still well represented with three of the top 15 outfields.  Cobb, Veach and Hielmann combined for 20.7 WAR in 1917 making them the sixth best outfield ever.  The 1907 trio of Cobb, Crawford and Davy Jones is ninth (20.5).  In 1915, Cobb, Crawford and Veach had 20.2 WAR which ranks them at number 13.

 Table 1: Best Single Season Outfields Accord to Baseball-Reference WAR 

Year	Team	Player 1	WAR	Player 2	WAR	Player 3	WAR	Total WAR
1927	NYA	Babe Ruth	12.8	Earle Combs	7.0	Bob Meusel	3.7	23.5
1931	NYA	Babe Ruth	11.4	Ben Chapman	6.3	Earle Combs	4.7	22.4
1953	BRO	Duke Snider	9.5	Jackie Robinson	7.3	Carl Furillo	4.7	21.5
1961	NYA	Mickey Mantle	11.9	Roger Maris	7.2	Yogi Berra	2.4	21.5
1963	SFN	Willie Mays	10.2	Willie McCovey	6.5	Felipe Alou	4.6	21.3
1917	DET	Ty Cobb	11.9	Bobby Veach	6.5	Harry Heilmann	2.3	20.7
1895	PHI	Ed Delahanty	7.5	Billy Hamilton	6.6	Sam Thompson	6.5	20.6
1894	PHI	Billy Hamilton	8.7	Ed Delahanty	6.7	Sam Thompson	5.1	20.5
1907	DET	Ty Cobb	8.4	Sam Crawford	7.5	Davy Jones	4.6	20.5
1941	NYA	Joe DiMaggio	9.4	Charlie Keller	6.6	Tommy Henrich	4.4	20.4
1899	PHI	Ed Delahanty	9.3	Roy Thomas	6.0	Elmer Flick	5.0	20.3
1990	OAK	Rickey Henderson	10.0	Jose Canseco	5.5	Dave Henderson	4.8	20.3
1915	DET	Ty Cobb	11.1	Bobby Veach	4.8	Sam Crawford	4.3	20.2
1980	OAK	Rickey Henderson	8.6	Dwayne Murphy	6.3	Tony Armas	5.3	20.2
1939	NYA	Joe DiMaggio	8.9	George Selkirk	5.9	Charlie Keller	5.1	19.9

One criticism of WAR is that the fielding portion of the system is not that reliable if we are only looking at one year of data.  It is even more shaky in very early years where less detailed data are available.  Thus, I also wanted to look at this with fielding excluded.  The Offensive WAR (oWAR) results are shown in Table 2.

In this case, the the 1927 and 1931 Yankees outfields flip flop so that 1931 is now number one (21.8 oWAR) and 1927 is number two (21.4).  The 1961 Yankees outfield of Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris and Yogi Berra was third at 20.9.

The Tigers do better on this list than they do on the first one that includes fielding.  In this case, they have five of the 15 best outfields ever.  The 1915 group moves into fourth with 20.7 oWAR, while the 1917 trio finishes seventh at 19.8 and the 1907 threesome is eleventh (19.2)  Two additional Tiger outfields are presented in this table.  The 1908 outfield of Cobb, Crawford and Matty McIntyre is ninth (19.5)and the 1925 crew of Cobb, Heilmann and Al Wingo is 15th ( 18.4).


Table 2: Best Single Season Outfields Accord to Baseball-Reference oWAR

Year	Team	Player 1	oWAR	Player 2	oWAR	Player 3	oWAR	Total oWAR
1931	NYA	Babe Ruth	11.6	Ben Chapman	5.3	Earle Combs	4.9	21.8
1927	NYA	Babe Ruth	11.6	Earle Combs	6.2	Bob Meusel	3.6	21.4
1961	NYA	Mickey Mantle	11.8	Roger Maris	7.1	Yogi Berra	2.0	20.9
1915	DET	Ty Cobb	11.4	Bobby Veach	4.5	Sam Crawford	4.7	20.7
1895	PHI	Ed Delahanty	7.5	Billy Hamilton	6.8	Sam Thompson	6.3	20.5
1972	HOU	Cesar Cedeno	8.0	Jimmy Wynn	6.8	Bob Watson	5.4	20.1
1917	DET	Ty Cobb	11.2	Bobby Veach	6.0	Harry Heilmann	2.5	19.8
1894	PHI	Billy Hamilton	8.2	Ed Delahanty	6.1	Sam Thompson	5.4	19.7
1908	DET	Matty McIntyre	5.9	Ty Cobb	7.1	Sam Crawford	6.6	19.5
1953	BRO	Duke Snider	8.7	Jackie Robinson	6.1	Carl Furillo	4.5	19.3
1907	DET	Ty Cobb	8.2	Sam Crawford	7.5	Davy Jones	3.5	19.2
1963	SFN	Willie Mays	8.9	Willie McCovey	6.4	Felipe Alou	3.8	19.1
1899	PHI	Ed Delahanty	8.9	Roy Thomas	5.7	Elmer Flick	4.2	18.9
1941	NYA	Joe DiMaggio	8.6	Charlie Keller	5.8	Tommy Henrich	4.1	18.5
1925	DET	Harry Heilmann	6.9	Ty Cobb	6.4	Al Wingo	5.1	18.4

So, just as one might expect, the Tigers early outfields were some of the most  dominant in the history of the game.  Later, I'll explore some more recent Tigers outfields to see where they rank.

What will Brennan Boesch do Next?

Nobody is quite sure what to expect from slugging outfielder Brennan Boesch in 2011.  Everybody knows his story.  He was promoted to from Toledo to Detroit in late April and went on to have an all-star caliber first half batting .342/.397/.593.  His second half, however, was described by Baseball Prospectus as the worst half season for a regular in the 21st Century.  His final line was an abysmal .163/.237/.222.  Corey Ettinger of AL Central in Focus took a look at his statistical tendencies and tried to project his future.  He is hopeful but not all that optimistic. Now, I'll give my thoughts.

Since being selected in the third round of the 2006 draft, the left-handed hitting Boesch was regarded as a free-swinger with the potential to hit a lot of home runs.  He was somewhat of a disappointment hitting just 22 home runs combined from 2006-2008.  The 6-6 210 pound beast finally broke out in 2009 hitting .275 with 28 homers in his first year at Double-A Erie.

Even after his 2009 season, scouts were divided on his future in the majors.  Some felt he had enough power potential to make  a contribution at least on a platoon basis.  Others feared that he would never make enough contact to stick as a major league regular.  The statistical projections were bleak including a .228/.278/.358 PECOTA projection.  He beat his projection by a substantial margin last year, but his crash and burn finish didn't inspire any confidence among either his skeptics or supporters.       

So, what can we expect from him in 2011? He'll be 26 in April, so we can't expect him to make any dramatic improvements.  He's always going to be a guy who can hit for power but struggles to make contact or draw walks.  His 2010 35/121 BB/K ratio probably won't get much better.  He's got surprising speed for a big guy but is an awkward defender.  The question is can he make small gains in his his plate discipline, contact and defensive skills?  If he can improve just a little in those areas, he can have a career as a platoon corner outfielder.

 The statistical projections are still not optimistic.  ZIPS pegs him at .247/.295/.390 and PECOTA has him batting .250/.302/.424.  I think he can hit for more power than that, maybe slugging between .450-.470.  If he gets a lot of at bats mostly versus right-handers, I would guess he'd bat around .250/.300/.460.

I don't think he'll get a chance right away though.  The outfield is set with Ryan Raburn, Austin Jackson and Magglio Ordonez and Victor Martinez will be the primary DH.  Boesch may make the team as a backup outfielder, but his best chance might come if he goes to Toledo, gets hot and comes up due to an injury.

I don't see him ever being a star or even a consistent regular because I doubt his plate discipline will allow it.  He could become a left-handed version of Marcus Thames, which would not be a bad thing.

Intense Debate

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Is Andy Dirks for Real?

Andy Dirks is impressing Jim Leyland this spring (Photo courtesy of Roger Dewitt/hueytaxi)

At the beginning of spring training, before a game had been played, Jim Leyland announced that a relatively unknown rookie Andy Dirks had a legitimate shot at making the opening day roster.  That came as a bit of surprise considering that the 25-year-old Dirks is not even on the 40-man roster.

Once the games started, fans got a glimpse of what was impressing the Tigers manager.  In nine games, the left-handed batting outfielder has been the hottest Tigers hitter batting .478 with six extra base hits in 23 at bats.  That's an awfully small sample size, but just the fact that he leads the team in games played shows that the Tigers are taking a serious look. 

Who is this guy?  In his first year in the advanced minors in 2010, he batted a combined .292/.336/.492 for double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo combined.  This included a very strong final month in Toledo where he batted .375 with 15 extra base hits in 93 plate appearances.  By all accounts, he played over his head at Toledo, but continued his hot hitting in the Dominican Winter League with a .906 OPS in 46 games.   

The six-foot tall 195 pound Dirks does not have one outstanding skill, but does a lot of things well.  His best position is left field, but is capable of playing all three outfield positions at at least an average level.  He does not have blazing speed but is a smart base runner who stole 22 bases in 26 attempts last year.  As a hitter, he makes good contact, and has pretty good gap power. He's not a big home run hitter, but could potentially reach 15 homers in the majors some year.

Here is what some of the prospect experts are saying about him:

Mark Anderson, Scout.com: "A well-rounded player, Dirks' broad skills and solid skill set has long given scouts the vision of him as a traditional fourth outfielder."

Baseball America Prospect Handbook: "He doesn't have standout tools, but he grows on managers because he plays the game the right way and always gives you 100%.  If all works out, he could be a David Dellucci-type regular, and should at least have value as a fourth outfielder."

Baseball Prospectus 2011: "Dirks is a gamer who worked his way up to triple-A and profiles as a likable fourth outfielder."

He sounds like a fourth outfielder.  Doesn't he? He also sounds like the type of hard-working gritty player that managers appreciate.  That should give him a major league career.

Will his career start on opening day, 2011?  Since he's not on the 40-man roster and he is probably competing with Clete Thomas and Brennan Boesch for the final bench spot, he's a long shot.  Since he probably can't do anything that Thomas can't do and doesn't have Boesch's power, there really isn't a need to create space for him on the roster.  He'll likely start the season in Toledo, but will see Detroit at some point this year if he hits.

Tigers Starters Almost Flawless

It's been almost too easy for the Tigers starting rotation this spring.  There have been 12 starts so far without a hint of trouble in any of them.  It's been smooth sailing for all five starters  - Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Phil Coke and Brad Penny.  Even their two rookies - Jacob Turner and Andy Oliver - have been rock solid in early action.  The numbers tell the story:

12 GS
41 IP
4 ER
0.88 ERA
26 H
29 K
7 BB
1 HR

It's been so good that there is nothing to even analyze.  You can say it doesn't mean much and you would probably be right.  Still, I can't remember a spring where every starting pitcher started out so strong.  Even though we know there is little correlation between spring performance and the regular season, I'd  rather have them pitching well than struggling.

This is better than having Nate Robertson get hit hard in every appearance  It's better than Jeremy Bonderman giving up five runs in the first inning because he's trying to learn a change-up.  It's better than Dontrelle Willis walking a batter an inning and saying that he feels great.  It's better than hearing Leyland scold the staff because they aren't throwing strikes.  It's certainly better than reading that one of the starters has a sore arm and that the MRI is clean and trainer Kevin Rand says he'll be OK but it still hurts.

In the past, we worried about bad spring pitching performances because we feared it would carry into the season.  And it usually did because they had starters who were either bad or injured or both.  This year we are hoping that the early spring pitching DOES carry into the regular season. Even though we tell ourselves it doesn't matter, it still feels good.