Giving Victor Martinez Credit for Situational Hitting

When a team is losing, fans usually talk about how they never hit with runners in scoring  position.  When a team is winning like the Tigers have been recently, everyone wants to talk about their great situational hitting.  One man in particular who is getting praise for his ability to hit with runners in scoring position is designated hitter Victor Martinez.

Many fans complain that statistics like on base percentage, slugging average and OPS don't address situational hitting. Traditional fans like to use Runs Batted In, but that is a team dependent statistic.  A player has more or less opportunity to drive in runs depending on who is batting in front of him.

Other fans point to batting average with runners in scoring position, but that is based on a limited number of plate appearances.  It also doesn't consider the number of outs, the specific base runners (e.g. bases loaded versus second base only) or the type of hit (single, double, triple or home run).  It also ignores a player's performance when no runners are in scoring position. 

What we want is a statistic which gives a player credit for everything he does including situational hitting.  Batting RunsBatting Runs Above Average by the 24 Base/Out States (RE24) - found at Baseball-Reference - does just that.   In the past, I have discussed just plain Batting Runs  (see the bottom section of the linked article).  Batting Runs is an estimate of how many runs a player contributed to his team beyond what an average hitter would have contributed in his place.   RE24 is similar to Batting Runs except that it uses base/out states in the calculation.  An example of a base/out state is "runners at first and third and one out".  There are 24 possible base/out states and RE24 takes all of them into consideration.

In the calculation of Batting Runs, a double with the bases loaded and two outs counts the same (0.770 runs) as a double with the bases empty and no outs. On the other hand, RE24 counts the bases loaded double more than the bases empty double (2.544 versus 0.632) because it does more to increase the expected runs scored in the inning.

RE24 for one at bat is the difference between run expectancy at the beginning and end of a play.  For example, suppose Martinez bats with a runner on first and one out. In that situation, we would expect 0.556 runs to score by the end of the inning.  Assume that Martinez then doubles, putting runners on second and third with one out. In that situation, we would expect 1.447 runs to score by the end of the inning. Therefore, Martinez's double is worth 0.891 runs.

Summing RE24 over all of a batter’s plate appearances yields his season total RE24. For
example, Martinez has a RE24 of 39.5 this year.  So, by that measure, he has contributed about 40 runs above what an average batter would have been expected to contribute given the same opportunities. This is much higher than his 20.3 Batting Runs, which means that Martinez has been extremely good in situations with high run expectancy and has contributed more to his team’s runs than Batting Runs indicates.  Indeed, we can estimate that he has contributed an extra 19 runs with his situational hitting, which is a lot.

Table 1 below shows the top ten batters in the American League in terms of RE24 in 2011.  RE24. Miguel Cabrera is second to Jose Bautista in both Batting Runs and RE24.  While Martinez is only 17th in the league in Batting Runs, he is fifth in RE24.

The Tigers have 66.7 Batting Runs as a team this year and their team RE24 is 61.1.  So, their situational hitting performance has not significantly helped or hurt them.  Their individual RE24 leaders (Table 2) are no surprise.  Regardless of how you cut the data, Cabrera, Martinez, Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta are the clear offensive leaders.

What is interesting is that Martinez is so far ahead of the rest of the team in RE24 minus BtRuns.  This shows that Martinez has added more with his situational hitting than any other Tiger.  The majority of his teammates actually look slightly less productive when you add situational performance into the equation.


Table 1: AL RE24 Leaders

Player	Team	BtRuns	RE24	RE24-BtRuns
Bautista	TOR	60.6	59.2	-1.4
Cabrera	DET	57.2	56.3	-0.9
Ellsbury	BOS	34.7	50.2	15.5
Gonxalez	BOS	47.0	44.9	-2.1
Martinez	DET	20.0	39.5	19.5
Granderson	NY	33.9	38.3	4.4
Ortiz	BOS	42.8	36.1	-6.7
Gordon	KC	33.1	33.8	0.7
Napoli	TEX	29.0	33.6	4.6
Cano	NY	20.3	30.7	10.4

Table 2: Tigers Ranked by RE24

Player	BtRuns	RE24	RE24-BtRuns
Cabrera	57.2	56.3	-0.9
Martinez	20.0	39.5	19.5
Avila	32.6	28.4	-4.2
Peralta	18.7	14.3	-4.4
Boesch	10.9	9.1	-1.8
Young	1.8	2.7	0.9
Betemit	3.0	2.6	-0.4
Jackson	-5.5	-1.7	3.8
Dirks	-1.3	-4.3	-3
Kelly	-9.6	-7.0	2.6
Santiago	-2.6	-9.1	-6.5
Raburn	-9.0	-12.2	-3.2
Ordonez	-12.6	-18.3	-5.7
Inge	-19.8	-22.7	-2.9

Surging Tigers Beat Twins 8-4

When Brad Penny allowed four runs in the first inning, we were not worried.  Not with the way the Tigers are playing right now.  This is the same team which came back from an 8-1 deficit to beat the White Sox in a recent Penny start.  Sure enough, they came back again to win 8-4 thanks to a couple of three run rallies.   

A three-run homer by Alex Avila in the second cut the deficit to 4-3.  They put up another three spot in the fourth thanks to an RBI triple by Wilson Betemit and a two-run blast by Ramon Santiago.  Meanwhile, five Tigers relievers - Dan Schlereth, Ryan Perry, Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde held the Twins scoreless for eight innings and the Tigers won going away.

After losing to the Twins on August 17th the Tigers were 7 games over .500, were just two games ahead of the second-place Indians and had given up more runs than they had scored for the season.  Over the past three weeks the Tigers have gone 17-4 by outscoring opponents 136-80.  They have also won seven in a row and, assuming the Indians hold on to beat the White Sox, the Tigers will have a 9 1/2-game lead.

What an amazing run.  The Tigers really do seem unbeatable right now.

Fister Punches Out Indians, Tigers Win 4-2

You know I've been waiting to use that corny headline for a while, but today it's appropriate.  Doug Fister is not known for strikeouts - just 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings coming into today - but this afternoon he punched out a career high 13 batters.  Fister always has good control and generally keeps the ball down, but today he appeared to have a little extra movement on all his pitches.

The six-foot-eight Fister was almost un-hittable allowing just two runs on four hits and one walk in eight innings.  One of the runs was unearned due to his own throwing error.  The other came on a home run by Indians right fielder Kosuke Fukodome in the eighth inning.  Fister now has an outstanding 2.64 ERA and 36/3 K/BB ratio in 44 1/3 innings as a Tiger.

Fryman - Alexander - Fister

Fister may be the best in-season pitching addition to the Tigers since Doyle Alexander in 1987.  Alexander was acquired from the Atlanta Braves on August 12 of that year for young fire baller John Smoltz.  Alexander proceeded to go 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch and helped the Tigers win the division title on the final weekend of the season.

One can question whether the trade was worth it.  On one hand, it gave us the best Tigers pennant race of my lifetime and they would not have won it without him.  On the other hand, Smoltz went on to have a tremendous career with the Braves.  From a WAR perspective, it was a horrible trade.  However, my question is how good would Smoltz have been and how many division titles would the dismal Tigers of that period won with him?  My guess is not many if any.  I've always considered it a good trade for the Tigers on that basis.

Another late season acquisition was Woodie Fryman, who was acquired of the waiver wire from the Phillies in August, 1972.  After an undistinguished career with the Phillies, the southpaw went 10-3 with a 2.06 ERA in 16 games for the Tigers.  He helped the Tigers beat the Red Sox by a half game in the strike-shortened 1972 season.

Fister may be following in the footsteps of Alexander and Fryman this season, but the difference is that he's not a one-year fix.  At just 27 years old, he is expected to be a fixture in the Tigers rotation for the next few years.

Tigers Sweep White Sox

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Chicago	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	9	3
Detroit	1	0	3	5	0	7	0	2	0	18	24	1

The line score above tells it all. The Tigers didn't just sweep the White Sox under the rug. They swept them clear out of Detroit and probably out of the pennant race. Tonight's game was nothing like yesterday when they came back from a seven run deficit to beat the White Sox 9-8. Tonight, the White Sox looked like a demoralized team as the Tigers mauled then 18-2 to complete the three-game sweep.

The Tigers put on an amazing offensive display tonight.  They had 24 hits, 22 of them by the sixth inning.  As Dan Dickerson pointed out on Twitter, they struck out 12 times which means there were just 36 balls in play.  That comes out to a .667 BABIP.  That's probably not sustainable!  Every Tiger starter had at least one hit tonight and everyone but Ryan Raburn had at least two.  Awesome Alex Avila led the attack with four hits.

Not to be forgotten was a strong performance by Max Scherzer tonight.  He went seven shutout innings allowing just five hits and walking nobody.  He must have loved all that run support.  Hopefully, they saved some runs for Doug "no run support" Fister tomorrow. 

The Tigers now go to Cleveland for a three game series starting tomorrow afternoon.  If they take two of three there, that would pretty much wrap it up I think.  Here are the current standings:

Team	W	L	PCT	GB
Detroit	78	62	.557	----
Cleveland	70	67	.511	6 ½
Chicago	68	69	.496	8 ½
Minnesota	58	81	.417	19 ½
Kansas City	58	83	.411	20 1/2

One Run Makes a Big Difference

If you look at runs scored and runs allowed, there isn't a big difference between the Tigers in 2010 and 2011.  Last year, the Tigers scored 751 runs and allowed 743 for a run differential of +8.  This year, they have scored 639 runs and given up 628 for a +11 run differential. A run differential of 10 is worth one win on average, so you would expect both teams to be one game above .500.  In actuality, this year's squad is much better than that:

2010 81-81 .500
2011 77-62 .554

So, two teams with almost the same run differential have a .054 difference in winning percentage.  How does that happen? Often times such a discrepancy can be explained by a team's performance in close games, so let's look at that.  The Tigers have been much better in one run games this year than last year:

2010 16-26 .381
2011 24-15 .615

That's a 9 1/2 game difference between 2010 and 2011 which is substantial.  Here's what would would have happened if they played .500 ball in one-run games both years:

2010 86-76 .531
2011 73-66 .525

The winning percentages would have been almost identical, actually slightly better in 2010.  So, the difference between 2010 and 2011 can be explained by performance in one-run games.  Why does a team perform well in one-run games? 

In 1999, Baseball Prospectus co-founder Rany Jazayerli and former Baseball Prospectus writer and current researcher for an MLB team Keith Woolner studied the relationship between bullpens and records in one-run games.  They discovered that teams with good bullpens tended to exceed their expected record in one-run games while teams with poor bullpens were more likely to under perform in one-run games.  Their study does not explain all the discrepancies between actual and expected win totals, but bullpen quality is the biggest factor that has been found to date.

Now, the Tigers bullpen has had problems getting through the middle innings this year, but they have had no problem closing out games.  Jose Valverde is 40 for 40 in save opportunities which has probably boosted their record in one-run games. 

So, is Valverde's perfection in save situations the reason they are better this year?  That's probably part of it.  It could also be better clutch hitting, better managing, better luck or any number of other reasons.  Whatever the reason, it goes to show that there is not necessarily much difference between a .500 team and a team on pace to win 90 games.  Sometimes, it's just a run here and there. 

Tigers Come Back to Stun White Sox

It's pretty hard for an analytical writer like myself to capture the excitement of game like today's 9-8 victory over the White Sox, but I need to say something.  I couldn't watch the game because the Red Sox were on Fox and all other games were blacked out even for those who paid for Extra Innings.  But you guys already know about that Saturday afternoon foolishness.  As a result, I listened to the game on the radio.

The Tigers were down 8-1 in the fifth and it was a beautiful day out, so I went outside to do some yard work.  I checked in periodically and noticed that the Tigers were chipping away.    They scored three in the bottom of the fifth, when red hot Austin Jackson (four for five on the day) tripled in a run and Delmon Young hit a two-run homer.  Third baseman Wilson Betemit belted another homer in the sixth to make 8-5 and I started paying more attention. 

Then there was a rain delay in the eighth, so I went out to get a pizza.  I came back to hear shortstop Jhonny Peralta single in a run to close the gap to 8-6.  Meanwhile, the Tigers bullpen was doing a great job keeping the Tigers in the game - three scoreless innings by David Pauley and one perfect frame by rookie Luis Marte.

White Sox closer Sergio Santos came in to pitch the ninth.  Santos has been outstanding this year, but the way the game and the season has been going, you sensed it wasn't over yet.  With one out, Jackson lined a triple down the left field line.  Ryan Raburn, who earlier entered the game as a pinch hitter for the left-handed Andy Dirks, followed with a long blast down the left field line to tie the game at eight.  With two outs, big Miguel Cabrera then launched a shot over the left field fence for a 9-8 walk-off victory.

As it turned out, Tigers radio broadcaster Dan Dickerson did such a great job capturing the drama of the ninth inning that is was almost good that the game was not on television.  This was one of the most exciting comebacks in an important game the Tigers have made in my 44 years as a fan.  The game needed a great call and Dickerson gave it to us. 

Verlander, Jackson lead Tigers Over White Sox

In the first game of a big series versus the second place White Sox, The Tigers crushed their central division rival 8-1 tonight.  The Tigers now lead the White Sox by 6 1/2 games.  The Indians are currently 6 games back pending the result of their game versus the pesky Royals tonight. 

Tigers ace Justin Verlander pitched 7 1/3 innings allowing just one run on seven hits and a walk to lower his season ERA to 2.34.  He also upped his record to 21-5. I don't usually pay a lot of attention to pitcher wins because I consider wins to be a team statistic, but it's unusual for a pitcher to have 21 wins so quickly.  If he is going to be the rare pitcher to win an MVP award, he'll probably need an extraordinary number of wins.  The last starting pitcher to win the award was Roger Clemens in 1986 when he 24-4 for the Red Sox.  Verlander will likely get five more starts. 

How consistent has Verlander been this year?  He has 26 quality starts (6+ IP, 3 or fewer ER) in 30 games.  His 86.7 quality start percentage (QS%) is the second best of any starter with 30 or more starts since 1991.  The best QS% was by Felix Hernandez with 30 out of 34 (88.2 QS%) in 2010.  Jered Weaver is second in the majors this year with an impressive 24/28 (85.7%).

Austin Jackson on Fire

Austin Jackson had three more hits today including his ninth home run.  He has now gone 12 for 24 with five extra base hits on the home stand.  Scouts have hinted that AJax could eventually hit 15-20 homers in a season.  With four bombs in the last 15 games, he might be starting to realize that potential. 

Another good sign is that Jackson is not striking out quite as much lately.  After whiffing in 31% of his at bats through July, he has struck out in 21% of his at bats since then.  These are all small sample sizes here, but it's something to watch in future games.     

Best Month Ever

As Tiger Tales approaches its sixth anniversary, it had its biggest month ever in August.  There were a total of 8,111 visits and 11,340 page views for the month.  Some sites get that many in one day, so it's not a big deal, but it's good to see that people are a little bit interested.  I haven't done anything different lately, so I'm pretty sure the increase has more to do with the growing popularity of the Tigers as the pennant race heats up rather than anything I did.  Anyway, thanks to everyone who keeps reading. 

September Call-ups

The Tigers announced today that they have added right-haned pitchers Luis Marte and Jacob Turner, second baseman Will Rhymes and outfielder Andy Dirks to their active roster.  Turner will start today's game versus the Royals in order to give an extra day of rest for each pitcher in their rotation. 

Guillen or Rhymes could work their way into the mix at second base at some point.  As long as the Tigers continue their winning ways though, the Tigers will probably stick with Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn.  The extra infielders, along with the addition of Dirks, do give the Tigers more flexibility to use pinch hitters, pinch runners and defensive replacements late in games. 

Marte is a surprise call-up as he had to be added to the 40-man roster.  The five-foot-ten 185 pound Marte posted an impressive 1.90 ERA and 70/22 K/BB ratio in 56 1/3 innings most for Double-A Erie.  You can learn more about Marte at TigsTown.