One-Run Wins Boosted Tigers in 2011

Before the Tigers played the Rangers in the American League Championship series, many noticed a wide disparity in run differential between the two teams in 2011.  While the Tigers scored only 76 more runs than they allowed (787 versus 711), the Rangers outscored opponents by 178 runs (855 versus 677).  Even with that apparent disadvantage, the Tigers won just one less game than the Rangers during the season  In this post, I'll explore run differential and wins in more detail.

Pete Palmer (Hidden Game of Baseball, 1984) estimated that a differential of ten runs is worth approximately one win.  In other words, adding ten runs to a team's season total increases their expected wins (EW) by one win and subtracting ten runs decreases their expected wins by one.  Palmer developed the following formula for expected wins based on that principle:

EW= games/2 + (run differential)/10

According to their +76 run differential, the Tigers had 81 + 76/10 = 89 expected wins.  In actuality, the Tigers won 95 games. So, they outperformed their predicted wins by +6.  The Rangers, on the other hand, had 96 actual wins and 99 expected wins, a difference of -3.     The table below shows that the Tigers outdid their predicted wins by a bigger margin than any team in the American League.

Table 1: Wins Versus Expected Wins for American League Teams, 2011

TEAM	RS	RA	RS-RA	W	EW	W-EW
DET	787	711	76	95	89	6
CLE	704	760	-56	80	75	5
BAL	708	860	-152	69	66	3
CHW	654	706	-52	79	76	3
LAA	667	633	34	86	84	2
TOR	743	761	-18	81	79	2
TBR	707	614	93	91	90	1
MIN	619	804	-185	63	63	0
SEA	556	675	-119	67	69	-2
TEX	855	677	178	96	99	-3
OAK	645	679	-34	74	78	-4
BOS	875	737	138	90	95	-5
NYY	867	657	210	97	102	-5
KCR	730	762	-32	71	78	-7

Data from: Baseball-Reference.com

When a team performs far above its expected wins, as the Tigers did, it usually means that they either did very well in close games or they lost a disproportionate number of games by wide margins.  In the Tigers case, the gap between wins and expected wins can be explained by the league-best 29-17 record in one-run games. If they had instead played .500 ball in those games, they would have won six fewer games.

Interestingly, the Tigers were a league-worst 16-26 in one-run games in 2010.  What a difference year makes.  Why were they so much better in close games this year?  It could be due to better luck, managing, clutch hitting or relief pitching.  I'm guessing that Jose Valverde's perfect record in save situations was responsible for part of it.

The relief pitching theory might be supported by researchers Rany Jazayerli and Keith Woolner, who studied the relationship between bullpens and wins versus expected wins. They found that teams with the strongest bullpens tended to outperform their expected wins, while teams with weaker bullpens tended to under perform.  Their work was published at Baseball Prospectus in 1999. 

What does all this mean for 2012?  First, it's hard to perform so well in on-run games two years in a row, so we would expect the Tigers to win fewer games next year with the same run production and prevention.  Thus, it's important that they either improve internally, make some significant off-season upgrades or a combination of both.

The good news is that no team in the AL Central had as many as 80 expected wins in 2011.  Somewhat surprisingly, the Royals finished second in the division with 78 expected wins.  They under performed their expected wins by seven which was more than any team in the AL.  Part of the reason was a league-worst 34-46 record in games decided by two runs or fewer. A better record in close games combined with a developing core of young players could make them a divisional threat in the future.  For now though, I don't think their pitching is ready for contention.

Alex Avila's Awesome Season

In his his first season as the Tigers full-time catcher, Alex Avila did much more than hold his own.  The left-handed batting receiver put up numbers which compared favorably to any backstop in franchise history.  He batted .295 with 19 homers and 33 doubles and finished fifth in the American League with a .389 on-base percentage (OBP).  Additionally, his .895 OPS was eighth in the league and tops among catchers.

The 24-year-old catcher proved to be a workhorse leading the league with 133 games caught.  In fact, he may have caught too many games.  By the end of the season, he had tendonitis in both knees and was generally beat up.  While Avila handled his post-season catching duties admirably, he batted just .073 with one homer in 11 games.  However, his difficult post season does nothing to take away from his fabulous regular season.

Earlier in the year, I used the OPS+ statistic to compare Avila's season to past Tigers catchers.  Remember that OPS+ is a batter's OPS adjusted for ballpark and league average.  The league average hitter has an OPS+ of 100.  Anything better than 100 is above average.  Anything less than 100 is below average.   Only about 10% of batters have an OPS+ of 135 or higher.  So, Avila's OPS+ of 143 was really good especially for a catcher.

Table 1 below shows that Avila finished fourth all time among Tigers catchers on the OPS+ statistic.  Only Rudy York (151 in 1937) and Bill Freehan (145 in 1968, 144 in 1967) finished ahead of him.  Interestingly, Freehan also struggled in his first post-season batting .083 in the 1968 World Series.

Table 1: Single-Season OPS+ Leaders Among Tigers Catchers

Player	Year	OPS+
Rudy York	1937	151
Bill Freehan	1968	145
Bill Freehan	1967	144
Alex Avila	2011	143
Mickey Tettleton	1991	140
Rudy York	1938	140
Mickey Cochrane	1935	138
Pudge Rodriguez	2004	136
Mickey Tettleton	1992	136
Lance Parrish	1982	13

Source:Baseball-Reference

One problem with OPS and OPS+ is that they weight OBP as equal to slugging average (SLG) when OBP actually contributes about 80% more to run scoring than SLG.  Another issue is that OPS/OPS+ fail to take playing time into consideration. A better measure of overall batting is Batting Runs or BtRuns, first introduced in the Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn in 1984.

In the BtRuns system, weights are assigned to each batting event based on the statistical probability that the event contributes to a run. Based on the results of thousands of games, we know that the average single is worth 0.47 runs.  In other words, if one single is added to a team’s hit total in each game for 100 games, that team would be expected to add 47 runs to their season total.  Other events are weighted as follows:

1B 0.47
2B 0.77
3B 1.04
HR 1.40
BB 0.31
IBB 0.17
HBP 0.33
outs (AB-H) -0.27 (varies from year to year)

Adjustments can also be made to reflect the effect of the player's home park.

According to Baseball-Reference, Avila finished 10th in the AL with 31.2 BtRuns.  This means that he contributed an estimated 31 runs to the Tigers offense beyond what you would expect from an average hitter in the same number of plate appearances.

Table 2 shows that Avila finished fourth among Tigers catchers in BtRuns.  He is in great company.  Only Bill Freehan (33.0 in 1967 and 32.0 in 1968) and Hall of Famer Mickey Cochrane (31.7 in 1935) finished ahead of him.  Others on the list include Mickey Tettleton, Rudy York, Pudge Rodriguez and Lance Parrish.

Table 1: Single-Season Batting Runs Leaders Among Tigers Catchers

Player	Year	Bt Runs
Bill Freehan	1967	33.0
Bill Freehan	1968	32.0
Mickey Cochrane	1935	31.7
Alex Avila	2011	31.2
Mickey Tettleton	1992	30.2
Mickey Tettleton	1991	30.2
Rudy York	1938	30.2
Pudge Rodriguez	2004	27.9
Rudy York	1937	26.1
Lance Parrish	1982	20.8

 Source: Baseball-Reference

What lies ahead for Avila?   Consider that that only five catchers have ever accumulated more BtRuns in a single season before the age of 25.  They are Johnny Bench, Mike Piazza, Joe Mauer, Carlton Fisk and Joe Torre.  So, he is in great company. 

As seen by the beating Avila took this year, catching is a very tough position and it's very difficult for any catcher to put up great seasons on a regular basis.  However, Avila's future is sure looking very bright.

Crushed

I was prepared for lots of Tigers winning scenarios tonight.  I saw the good Max Scherzer showing up.  I envisioned the Tigers bats picking up where they left off in game five.  I pictured scoreless innings by Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde with Valverde dancing after the last out.  At the same time, I was prepared for plenty of bad scenarios.  Most of them involved a tight game and a heart breaking loss.  I was not prepared for a nine-run third inning by the Rangers.

We've seen it all year with Scherzer.  He can be very good or very bad and not usually anything in between.  The good thing is that he excels more often than fails including his previous playoff appearances.  Tonight, however, Mr Hyde showed up.

After Miguel Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta staked Scherzer to an early 2-0 lead with solo homers, Scherzer fell apart in the third.  He allowed six consecutive Rangers to reach on three hits and three walks.  Manager Jim Leyland was forced to take him out early and roll the dice with his shaky middle relief corps. 

The Tigers bullpen could do nothing to stop the Rangers attack.  The nine-run third-inning explosion pretty much ended the game and the Tigers season.  It didn't stop there.  The Rangers continued their assault against a parade of Tigers relievers including Dan Schlereth, Rick Porcello, Ryan Perry and Brad Penny. Sloppy outfield defense didn't help matters either. The final score was an embarrassing 15-5.

It was a difficult end to what was a fine season for the Tigers.  They won the American League Central by 15 games thanks to a fantastic finish including a 12-game winning streak.  They had a good number of walk-offs and other exciting wins.  They had as many great individual seasons as any Tigers team I can remember.  Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Alex Avila, Jose Valverde, Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta were all at or near the top of the league for their positions.

Our Tigers followed up with a thrilling victory over the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs.  That one ended with a game-five win at Yankee Stadium which should be remembered as one of the best wins in Tigers history.  They battled hard for the first five games of the League Championship series.  They were two key hits away from the World Series before everything unraveled tonight.

The game tonight was pretty tough to take and it's going to take a bit to shake it from our memories.  Ultimately though, we should remember this as a good and very entertaining season for the Tigers.

For now, I will just say congratulation to the Texas Rangers for their second straight American League pennant.

Tigers Survive, Beat Rangers 7-5

Down three games to one, the Tigers had their second "must win" game of the playoffs today.  They had their ace pitcher Justin Verlander on the mound, but their two top relievers Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde were unavailable after pitching three straight days including two innings apiece in last night's loss.  So it wasn't going to be easy.

Verlander was not his dominant self and wasn't very efficient either throwing 133 pitches in 7 1/3 innings.  He allowed 11 base runners and 4 runs, but was very tough pitching his way out of jams.  The biggest mess came in the sixth inning.   With the score tied at two, the Tigers right hander loaded the bases before inducing Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler to hit into an inning-ending double play.

That sixth inning included a long foul fly to right by Adrian Beltre which missed being a three-run homer by an inch.  It looked like the series was over for a brief moment.  Instead, Tigers fortunes seemed to change at that point.

In the bottom of the sixth, the Tigers dormant offense finally exploded. Ryan Raburn led off with a sharp single to left.  Miguel Cabrera followed with a double which took a high hop off the third-base bag, a rare break for the Tigers in this series.  Victor Martinez then tripled into the right field corner past the diving Nelson Cruz.  Finally, Delmon Young (who was originally scheduled to miss the whole series with an oblique injury) belted his second homer of the game to left.  It was the first "cycle" by a team  - Single, double, triple, homer in succession - in post-season history.  It was also a 6-2 lead for the Tigers.

The lead would reach 7-2 after a homer by Ryan Raburn in the seventh, but no game is going to be easy in this series.  Verlander gave up a Homer to the great Nelson Cruz on his 133rd pitch and yielded to lefty reliever Phil Coke with 7-4 lead with one out in the eighth.  

Coke got the last two outs in the eighth, but then gave up a run and three base runners in the ninth.  This allowed Mike Napoli to come to plate as the potential go ahead run.  Fortunately, Coke got Napoli on a grounder to second ending the game with Babe Cruz on deck.

When asked what happened in the ninth inning, Coke joked: "I was just trying to make it interesting man".  I don't know about you guys, but I think this series has been "interesting" enough without that!

Ailing Tigers All Produced Today

Yesterday, I doubted that the Tigers could win three games in a row with three ailing hitters in the line-up - Young and Martinez with oblique strains and Alex Avila with a knee injury.  The three of them looked healthy enough today.  Along with Young's homers and Martinez's triple mentioned above, Avila also homered for the Tigers first run in the third inning.  That bodes well for the remainder of the series.

The other piece of good news was that the Tigers got through their bullpen crisis today.  They won without Benoit and Valverde and now both will go into game six on two days rest.

It's Looking Blique for Tigers

Tonight's 11-inning 7-3 loss to the Rangers was a devastating blow to the Tigers.  They are now down three games to one and will have to attempt to win three straight games with a worn out bullpen and a banged up middle of the order.  It's not over til it's over, but it's not looking good.

Rick Porcello pitched about as well as could be expected tonight allowing three runs in 6 2/3 innings.  Typical of his starts, he was brilliant for five innings (0 runs, 2 hits, 6 K), but ran out of gas in the sixth when he gave up three runs. Some may have wanted Jim Leyland to pull him earlier, but there's not much he could do.  His middle relievers are bad and the back end of the bullpen has been overused in the postseason. 

Leyland went all out to win this one using relievers Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde for the third straight night.  Not only that, but they pitched two innings apiece.  He could have used Phil Coke earlier, but he was probably trying to stretch out his strongest relievers in order to avoid another Ryan Perry situation in extra innings. 

Personally, I was surprised to see Valverde pitch a second inning after pitching the previous two nights. The result was a four-run 11th and a loss.  Moreover, Benoit and Valverde will probably be unavailable for tomorrow's game.

There were a couple of base running moves that didn't work out.  First Miguel Cabrera was sent home from third on a fly to right by Delmon Young in the eighth.  He was out by about ten feet on a perfect throw by Nelson Cruz, who has one of the best outfield arms in the game.  Some say, Leyland should have brought in a pinch runner.  I disagree.  There was no way I would have wanted to see them lose their elite hitter in the eight inning.
In didn't matter anyway because Cruz's throw would have nailed anyone they had available.

Should they have sent him?  With a slumping Avila on deck, I think they had to take a chance.  There was a possibility that Cruz would throw it off line or that Cabrera could knock the ball loose. Obviously, it didn't work out.

In the tenth inning, they had Austin Jackson attempt to steal to put the potential tying run in scoring position.  He was thrown out by Mike Napoli.  The thinking there is that Napoli has a poor arm and they wanted to give Ryan Raburn a chance to win the game with a single.  The problem is that it would have taken the bat out of on deck batter Cabrera's hands as he surely would have been walked.  I personally didn't care for the move, but it was justifiable.    

In the end, it was the offense that failed the Tigers again as they had only five hits in 11 innings.  Victor Martinez and Delmon Young played through oblique injuries which probably would have put them on the disabled list during the regular season.  Alex Avila continued to play while limping around on an injured knee. I'm not optimistic that this hurting crew will produce enough offense in the next three games either.

It was a tough loss, but the one big highlight of the night should be mentioned. With the Tigers down 3-2 in the seventh and two men out, Brandon Inge came to the plate against Alexi Ogando, who has been un-hittable in the playoffs and also against the Tigers in the regular season.  It looked hopeless.

Inge looked even more hopeless when he watched a fastball down the middle for strike one and took a check swing for strike two.  Fox broadcaster Tim McCarver went so far as to say: "Inge won't pull Ogando".  On the next pitch, he pulled a 98-MPH fastball for a game tying homer.

Had the Tigers gone on to win the game, the Inge blast would have been a moment we would have remembered for a long time.  As it turned out though, all it did was prolong the frustration and further tax a worn out bullpen.

Victor Martinez said after the game that "Nothing is impossible".  He's certainly right that teams have come back from 3-1 deficits before, but it's looking bleak for the Tigers.

Tigers Wake Up, Beat Rangers 5-2

Yesterday, I listed five slumping Tigers that needed to start hitting if the Tigers were going to have a chance to come back from a 2-0 deficit in this League Championship Series.  Today, all but one of those batters came through big in the Tigers 5-2 victory over the Rangers.

First, lead off hitter Austin Jackson finally made some contact stroking three singles in five trips.  He scored the go ahead run in the fifth and drove home an insurance run in the sixth.  Miguel Cabrera drilled an RBI double in the fifth and a solo homer to left in the seventh.  Victor Martinez and Jhonny Perlata also added solo homers. The only slumping  hitter who continued to struggle was catcher Alex Avila, who struckout three times.  Hopefully, his breakout is just around the corner.

If not for the reawakening of the hitters mentioned above, the big story of this game would have been the pitching of Doug Fister.  The steady right hander allowed three singles to start the game, but quickly recovered.  He got Michael Young to hit into a double play and then retired Adrian Beltre on strikeouts.  After that, he never allowed more than one base runner in any inning.  In all, he went 7 1/3 innings allowing just two runs on seven hits.  It's almost needless to say at this point that he walked nobody.  It was a materful performance against a tough Rangers line-up.

All was not perfect in this game however.  Fister pitching deep into the game saved a stretched out bullpen somewhat, but Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde did pitch for the second straight day.  This time they saved a win, but how much they'll be able to pitch in the next couple of games remains to be seen.

The bigger concern was that Victor Martinez injured his oblique on his home run swing and ran very gingerly around the bases.  He stayed in the game and hit a fly ball fairly well in the seventh, but the Free Press reported via twitter that manager Jim Leyland is "very concerned" about the injury.

With Brennan Boesch and Magglio Ordonez already out and Delmon Young also nursing an oblique injury, this new injury is potentially very bad news.  Danny Knobler just tweeted that Martinez will probably be playing tomorrow, but I suspect we won't get a definitive answer on the status of Young and Martinez until shortly before game time.

Middle of Order Failing Tigers

Some Tigers fans may blame the rain or bad umpiring for game one's loss.  They might fault reliever Ryan Perry for today's loss.  Some will blame bad coaching/managing for ill-timed sacrifice bunts and lack of aggressive base running (e.g. not sending Santiago home on Don Kelly's ninth inning double).  Others point to lack of hitting with runners in scoring position and that particular issue is certainly part of the problem.

However, the main reason or the more complete reason for the two losses in the League Championship is anemic production from the middle of the order.  It's a problem that started in the Yankees series and has continued in Texas. Many have talked about Alex Avila's slump (2 for 25 with 10 strikeouts) but it's been more than just him.

The big four which carried them all season simply hasn't been getting it done this post-season. Avila, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta have combined to go 17 for 99 (.172 batting average) with just 6 extra base hits and 8 RBI.  Add lead-off hitter Austin Jackson's 3 for 25 with 14 strikeouts and you can see why they haven't been scoring runs.  It's amazing they won the Yankee series given their offensive failings. 

What makes the lack of production from their core hitters even more frustrating is that they have gotten solid performances from role players. Delmon Young became the first Tiger ever to hit three home runs in a post-season series.  Don Kelly has 6 hits in 14 trips while playing all over the field.  Ryan Raburn drove in all their runs today with a three-run homer and is 4 for 11 for the playoffs.  Even Brandon Inge and Magglio Ordonez (who is now out for the year with a broke ankle) have made contributions.  It's a shame that much of that is getting wasted with the big boys struggling.

They somehow got through the Yankees series without much help from their most powerful bats.  It hasn't worked so far in this series.  This time, I don't see them mounting any kind of comeback unless their sluggers start to hit.  I don't know whether they are worn out, pressing or simply having a slump at the wrong time, but they are running out of time.  They need to get going in the next three games at Comerica or the season will be over.

Delmon Young Replaces Magglio Ordonez on Roster

Jason Beck has reported via twitter that Delmon Young has been reinstated on the Tigers roster replacing the injured Magglio Ordonez.  I don't know what to make of this move.  I suppose this is encouraging news, but it's hard to imagine Young is ready to play this soon after being removed from the roster two days ago.  I got the impression that it was not a really serious oblique strain, but those types of injuries tend to be slow healing.  Perhaps, he'll be ready to at least pinch hit some time during the series.  We'll just have to wait and see.  In the mean time, I would guess that Don Kelly will start in right field today.   

Ordonez out for season

When the Tigers announced that Delmon Young would not be on the League Championship Series roster due to a strained oblique, it was bad news.  It wasn't a crushing blow though because they had Ryan Raburn ready to step in and take his place.  Today, the team announced that Magglio Ordonez has a broken ankle and will be out for the season.  This is much worse news because there is no suitable replacement.

Of players on the current 25-man roster, the only outfielders are Don Kelly and Andy Dirks.  They are viable replacement when a right-hander is on the mound, but the Rangers staff is loaded with left-handers - three of them in the starting rotation.  Thus, the Tigers are in a tough spot.

Who will they bring in to replace Ordonez on the roster?  You would think it would be an outfielder or at least some kind of right-handed bat.  The first thought is that they could add Delmon Young or Carlos Guillen.  It's doubtful they can play in the field or else they would be on the roster already.  It's possible that they could pinch hit though.

Others in the organization with significant big league experience include Timo Perez and Clete Thomas.  Perez is currently serving a 50-day drug suspension, so he's out.  Thomas finished strong for the MudHens after a disappointing start. He's a possibility , but he bat's left-handed, so he's not ideal.

The next best right-handed hitting outfielder available is Ben Guez , who batted a combined .284/.345/.438 for Erie and Toledo.  I'm not sure if the Tigers think he's ready for the majors or even he's baseball ready at the moment, but this would be one heck of a way to make a major League debut.

Tigers Look to Take Advantage of Rangers Lefties

The Rangers have a very heavily left-handed starting rotation in place for the League Championship Series.  CJ Wilson, Matt Harrison and Derek Holland are all lefties while Colby Lewis is the lone right-hander. This is good news for the Tigers, who batted .287 with a .786 OPS versus southpaw starters and .272 with a .767 OPS versus righties during the regular season.  They also

Several Tigers batters hit lefties significantly better than righties over the course of the year.  This includes Ramon Santiago (.832 OPS vs LHP, .662 vs. RHP), Ryan Raburn (.807, .681), Brandon Inge (.717, .449), Austin Jackson (.732, .672) and Magglio Ordonez (.716, .581).   Other hitters such as Miguel Cabrera (.990, 1.047) and Victor Martinez (.823, .861) hit well against both right-handers and left-handers.  The player who could be hurt the most by the Rangers staff is Alex Avila (.779, .939).  overall, the Ranger right-handedness seems like a small but real advantage for the Tigers.

The Tigers staff, on the other hand, is heavily right-handed.  In fact, all their starters are right-handed.  Fortunately, the Rangers do not have a distinct advantage versus right-handers  (.802 OPS versus LH starters and .799 OPS vs. RH starters).  They do have some hitters who enjoy facing right-handers, most notably slugging outfielder Josh Hamilton (.825 vs. LHP, .904 versus RHP).  Others include Mitch Moreland (.783, .577) and David Murphy (.809, .507).

Delmon Young Out of Championship Series

The Tigers announced today that they have lost their hottest hitter for the second round of the playoffs. Outfielder Delmon Young is unable to play due to a strained oblique muscle and has been replaced n the roster by infielder Danny Worth.  This is bad news for the Tigers because Young batted .316 and belted three homers in the first round of the playoffs.  His solo homers in games three and five were instrumental in Tigers victories and he was one of the few Tigers to contribute consistent offensive versus the Yankees.

The good news is that they have utility man Ryan Raburn ready to take over the left field job.  Raburn has only five at bats in the playoffs with two hits and three strikeouts.  However, he batted a sterling .341/.393/.574 after the all star break.  Raburn also hit lefties well  posting a solid .807 OPS for the season.  That is important because the Rangers will be using three left-handed starters in the series - CJ Wilson, Matt Harrison and Derek Holland.

Some may not agree but Raburn should also be a defensive upgrade over Young.  While Raburn is erratic on routine plays, he has superior range to Young which allows him to get to more balls.  So, unless he makes one of his epic errors in a crucial spot, Raburn will be more useful in left than the lumbering Young.  Overall, Raburn should be a very capable replacement for Young.  The main loss might be depth off the bench. 

The roster move also means that veteran infielder Ramon Santiago will probably play every day at second.  If he needs a break the light-hitting but sure fielding Danny Worth should be an adequate replacement.

Tigers Eliminate Yankees in Classic Playoff Duel.

Teams don't get too many opportunities to meet the Yankees in a sudden death playoff game at Yankee Stadium, the most well known and feared sports stadium in the world.  When a team does get that chance, it's never an easy win and it's usually a loss.  The Tigers found themselves in that situation for the first time in franchise history tonight.  It was a tough tough contest as expected, but the Tigers hung on to win 3-2 in a classic playoff duel.

The Tigers jumped to an early lead in the first inning versus Yankee starter Ivan Nova thanks to solo homers by Don Kelly and Delmon Young on two consecutive pitches.  It looked like the Tigers would be doing some slugging tonight.  The only question was whether their pitching staff could hold the Yankees, a team that refuses to swing at anything out of the zone and rarely allows an easy out. 

As it turned out the Tigers would score only one more run.  Designated hitter Victor Martinez singled home Austin  Jackson to give them a 3-0 lead in the top of the fifth.  Now, I've been pretty optimistic about the Tigers as of late, but I spent the rest of the game fearing that three runs would not be enough against the Yankees line-up.

In the end, three runs would be enough (just barely) thanks to some great clutch pitching.  Starter Doug Fister, pitching on three days rest (Edit: it was actually the usual four days rest), worked his way out of jams in the second, third and fourth.  He struckout Posada with a man on second to end the second.  He tied up Robinson Cano just enough to get him to fly to center with two on and two out in the third.  He then survived a bases loaded mess in the fourth, getting the final two outs on easy infield pop ups. The only run against Fister was a solo homer by Cano in the fifth. 

Game-two winner Max Scherzer, came in to start the sixth and got four outs.  He left after an infield hit by shortstop Derek Jeter with one down in the seventh.  Then it got really scary.  Reliever Joaquin Benoit allowed two hits, including a single under his glove that should have been an easy out.  He then walked slugger Mark Teixeira to make it a one-run ball game.  Sandwiched around the walk, however, were punch outs of Alex Rodriguez and Nick Swisher.

They now had a one run lead with two innings to go, a situation where they had gone 79-0 this year.  It never felt safe though.  The final out of the eighth was a blast to deep right by Jeter which looked like it might clear the wall for A Yankees lead.  Instead Kelly caught it right at the fence. 

The ninth inning belonged to closer Jose Valverde as always.  He retired Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano on fly balls.  Then he struckout ARod for the final out.  Papa Grande did his save dance for the 51st time this year and was mobbed by teammates.

Tonight, the Tigers did what every team dreams about.  They eliminated the the Yankees in a deciding game on the hallowed turf of Yankee Stadium.  It was one of the Tigers biggest victories ever and one that their fans will remember for ages.

Tigers Take Series Lead with 5-4 Win

The long awaited Justin Verlander/ CC Sabathia finally took place tonight in game three of the first round of the playoffs (I hate calling it the ALDS).  While it wasn't quite the pitching duel some may have expected, it was an entertaining and tension-filled game from start to finish.

Tigers ace Justin Verlander allowed a lead off single to Derek Jeter and a triple to Curtis Granderson to start the game and the Yankees took a quick 2-0 lead in the first. Verlander quickly settled down or more accurately got amped up showing off some his most dominant stuff of the year after Granderson's triple.  JV usually holds back his hardest fastballs for the late innings, but tonight he was throwing 98-101 MPH fastballs all night long.  He struck out every Yankees starter at least once and had 11 for the night. 

The Tigers fans could sense that Verlander was doing something special and roared on every two strike count.  The crowd noise sounded like what you hear in the background of one of those old World Series films.  For a while, it looked like the powerful right hander would cruise to a complete game victory, but he ran into some trouble in the seventh. 

With two outs and two strikes on designated hitter Jorge Posada, Verlander tried to put the Yankee veteran away with curveballs and ended up walking him.  He then hit catcher Russell Martin with a pitch and allowed a game tying two-run double to speedy Brett Gardner.  It looked like Justin got a little to pumped in that inning, but then settled down and got through eight innings allowing four runs.

On the other side, Sabathia did not have good command tonight walking six batters in 5 1/3 innings. He survived the early innings reasonably well thanks to three double plays.  However, the Tigers chipped away getting some offense from unlikely sources.  Brandon Inge had a double and a single and scored two runs.  Ramon Santiago also had a double and a single and knocked in two runs.  Jim Leyland's favorite utility man, Don Kelly, later singled and scored.

Finally, the big blow came in the bottom of the seventh.  With the score tied at four, Delmon Young crushed a homer to right field to give the Tigers a 5-4 lead they would not lose.  I think the controversial Mr. Young (Some internet Tigers fans love him while others hate him) added a few new fans tonight. 

Closer Jose Valverde, who made us nervous in a non-save situation yesterday did the same in a save situation tonight.  He put two Yankees on base via bases on balls in the ninth, but then danced after striking out Derek Jeter to end the game. 

After yesterday's game, Papa Grande joked that the series is over and that the Tigers will not go back to Yankee Stadium.  He has a chance to be proven right tomorrow when the Tigers try to win the series with Rick Porcello facing AJ Burnett. 

The Good Scherzer Shows Up, Tigers Win 5-3

You never know which Max Scherzer is going to show up for the Tigers,  The man with the split pitching personality had a 4.43 ERA during the regular season, but that tells us little about what we can expect from him in a given game.  That's because his pitching performance is as inconsistent as his eye color (Most of you know that he is a heterochromiac with one brown eye and one blue eye).

When the game starts, fans wonder whether they'll see the Dr, Jekyll version of Scherzer who allowed two earned runs or fewer in 20 starts; Or if they get the Mr Hyde who allowed five or more earned runs nine times.  Because he is so unpredictable, many internet posters including myself declared Scherzer to be the key to the Tigers playoff success.  If the good Scherzer shows up more often or not, we figure that the Tigers should be in good shape.

Today, the good Scherzer showed up in Yankee Stadium.  The Tigers right hander had a no hitter going until a single off the bat of Robinson Cano landed in front of lumbering left fielder Delmon Young with one out in the sixth.  Scherzer left the game with a 4-0 lead after allowing the first two batters to reach in the seventh.  


Jim Leyland decided to bring on set up man Joaquin Benoit for a rare early appearance in the seventh.  During the regular season. Benoit had pitched more than one inning just three times.  He proceeded to retire the Yankees in order to get out of the seventh inning.  He stayed in to pitch the eighth and allowed one run on a homer to the left-handed batting Curtis Granderson. 

Meanwhile, the Tigers gave Scherzer some early support when Miguel Cabrera hit a two-run home run down the right field line in the first off Yankees starter Freddy Garcia. Cabrera added two more hits including an RBI single in the seventh.  Veteran Magglio Ordonez had three singles in three trips and scored two runs.  Not to be forgotten was an RBI single by Don Kelly giving the Tigers a 5-1 lead in the ninth.

The bottom of the ninth may have started with a rainbow in the outfield, but this wasn't going to be a happy tension-free finish for the Tigers. Closer Jose Valverde, who often struggles in non-save situations, did his best Fernando Rodney imitation.  Outfielder Nick Swisher led off with a homer to make it 5-2.  Designated hitter Jorge Posada followed with a triple which center fielder Austin Jackson may have been able reach if the field was not so wet from earlier rain showers. 

Two outs later with a man on first and the Tigers leading 5-3 under another heavy rain, Papa Grande retired Granderson on a pop to catcher Alex Avila to end the game. At least, that what we thought.  Instead Avila slipped on the wet Yankee logo in the on deck circle and the ball dropped foul.  It was an eery reminder of the 2006 World Series when Granderson, then with the Tigers, slipped in the wet grass on a routine fly ball to center. 

After Granderson walked, Tigers fans watched in horror as the dangerous Cano came up with a chance to win the game. Fortunately, we were able to exhale in relief as Cano grounded routinely to Ramon Santiago at second to end the game.

The series now goes to Detroit where the Tigers will have a chance to win the series in Comerica  Park.  The drama continues tomorrow night when Justin Verlander faces CC Sabathia at 8:37. 

Tigers Crushed by Yankees in Game One

It took two days to finish the first game of the playoffs versus the Yankees and it was not worth the wait.  The Tigers lost to the Yankees 9-3 in a game with few highlights for the Tigers. Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano accounted for the run differential with a six-RBI night. 

Right-hander Doug Fister took over in the second inning for ace Justin Verlander who had pitched the first inning of the game last night.  Fister was not as bad as his pitching line (six runs in 4 2/3 innings) indicated, but he made a couple of mistakes and paid for it.  The biggest mistake was probably the hanging curve he threw to Brett Gardner with two on , two outs and two strikes in the sixth inning.  Gardner's two-run single made the score 4-1 and opened the floodgates to a six-run inning.

The biggest blow of the sixth inning was a grand slam by Cano off reliever Al Albuquerque.  Albuquerque had allowed just two inherited runners to score all year, but he matched that total on just one pitch in the playoffs.  So, two of our most trusted pitchers had rough nights.

Delmon Young hit a solo homer off Yankees ace CC Sabathia last night in the first, but tonight the the offense was non-existent until they scored two in the ninth.  Rookie Ivan Nova pitched six scoreless two-hit innings before tiring in the ninth.  The Tigers scored two in the ninth and then loaded the bases forcing the Yankees to bring in Mariano Rivera.  That looked like a positive given that there will be four games in four days.  However, Rivera struck out Wislon Betemit on three pitches, so it may not have much effect.  

Fister versus Nova looked like a pretty good match-up for the Tigers.  It didn't turn out that way.  Tomorrow, it will be Max Scherzer versus Freddy Garcia in a crucial game two.  If the Tigers lose, they'll be one game from elimination.  If they win, they'll be tied one to one as the series moves to Comerica.