Tigers Pitching Better than Some Think in 2011?

The first thing many fans look at in assessing a pitching staff is team ERA.  Table 1 below shows that the Tigers finished seventh in the American League with a 4.04 ERA in 2011.  They were also very close to the league average of 4.08.  Does this mean that they had an average pitching staff?  

Table 1: ERA for American League Teams, 2011

Team	ERA
Los Angeles	3.57
Tampa Bay	3.58
Oakland	3.71
New York	3.73
Texas	3.79
Seattle	3.91
Detroit	4.04
Chicago	4.10
Boston	4.20
Cleveland	4.24
Toronto	4.33
Kansas City	4.45
Minnesota	4.60
Baltimore	4.92

ERA has traditionally been used instead of Run Average (same as ERA, except runs replaces earned runs) because it supposedly isolates pitching from fielding by removing fielding errors from a pitcher's responsibility.  However, there are a few problems with using ERA to separate pitching from fielding.  The most obvious is potential official scorer bias.  For example. if one team's official scorer is conservative in assigning errors, this might inflate that team's ERA in comparison to other teams.

A second shortcoming of ERA is that the only fielding events which are excluded from a pitcher's record are errors.  A pitcher gets credit for everything else that may affect run scoring, such as great plays by teammates and balls that drop in front of fielders.  In reality, some pitching staffs get more help from fielders than others and this is not reflected in ERA. 

A third issue is that a pitcher can give up a bunch of runs in an inning and not get charged for any of them simply because one error was made.  For example, suppose Max Scherzer retires the first two batters in an inning and the next one reaches on a throwing error by Brandon Inge.  Then suppose that Scherzer proceeds to allow a double, a walk and a grand slam.  That would be a poor job of pitching by Scherzer, but he would not be charged with any earned runs because Inge's error should have been the third out.   The ERA statistic would be an inappropriate representation of Scherzer's performance in that case. 

Finally, some believe that ERA unfairly favors ground ball pitchers compared to fly ball pitchers.  This is because ground balls are more likely to be errors than fly balls and thus more likely lead to unearned runs.

It is my belief that pitching analysis should ideally start (but not end) with runs allowed because a pitcher's job is to limit runs as much as possible.   The Tigers allowed 711 runs in 2011.  The league average was 717 runs allowed, so the Tigers were six runs Saved Above Average (RSAA).  Table 2 below illustrates that the Tigers were eighth in the AL by this measure.

Table 2: Runs Saved Above Average for American League Teams, 2011

Team	RSAA
Tampa Bay	103
Los Angeles	84
New York	60
Seattle	42
Texas	40
Oakland	38
Chicago	11
Detroit	6
Boston	-20
Cleveland	-43
Toronto	-44
Kansas City	-45
Minnesota	-87
Baltimore	-143

The RSAA statistic is a good start, but it's not much better than ERA.  We need to separate pitching from fielding.  One way to do this is to calculate runs saved or cost by a team's fielding and then subtract that from RAA to determine runs allowed by pitchers.  This is actually the basis of the Baseball-Reference Pitching Wins Above Replacement (WAR) statistic.  

I'm going to create something similar to Baseball-Reference WAR using the team fielding runs saved/cost calculated in an earlier post. Keeping in mind that fielding measurement is uncertain, the Tigers fielding cost them an estimated 21 runs (the average of Total Zone and BIS Defensive Runs Saved) compared to the average team in 2011.  I'll call this number Fielding Runs Saved (FRS)  Subtracting FRS (-21) from RSAA (6), we estimate that the Tigers pitching saved 27 runs above the average team.  So, in taking fielding into consideration, the Tigers pitching staff looks better than it did when we just looked at ERA or RSAA.

In addition to differences in fielding support, remember that some teams play in more pitcher-friendly parks than others.  For example, Mariners hurlers have an easier time limiting runs in Safeco Field than the Rangers pitchers do in The Ballpark at Arlington.  We can use park factors to estimate how many runs a park saved or cost a team's pitching staff.  I'm going to use the five-year factors created by US Patriot, who writes the Walk Like a Sabermetrician blog.  For those who don't know Patriot, he is one of the most respected statisticians in the hardcore saber community and I have learned a lot from his site.

According to Patriot's calculations, the Comerica Park Factor is 1.015.  A Park Factor above one indicates a better than average run scoring park.  So, Comerica Park plays slightly in favor of hitters: Tigers runs and runs allowed totals are inflated by an estimate 1.5 percent compared to a team playing in an average park.  A detailed explanation  of Park Factors can be found here. 

If we multiply the league average runs allowed (717) by .015, we get 11 runs. So, Comerica Park cost the Tigers staff an estimated 11 runs above an average staff.  I'll call this number Ballpark Runs (BPR).  In the Tigers case, BPR= -11.  Table 3 shows that this number ranged from + 28 runs saved at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay to -36 runs cost at Fenway in Boston.

Table 3: Ballpark Runs Saved/Cost for AL Teams, 2011

Team	BPR
Tampa Bay	28
Seattle	24
Oakland	19
Los Angeles	11
Minnesota	11
Cleveland	6
Toronto	0
Kansas City	-10
Detroit	-11
Baltimore	-16
New York	-22
Chicago	-24
Texas	-34
Boston	-36

We can then subtract FRS and BPR from RSAA to get Pitching Runs Saved (PRS): RSAA - FRS - BPR = +6 - (-21) - (-11) =  +38 for the Tigers.  Table 4 below shows that the Tigers were 4th in the league in PRS.


Table 4: Pitching Runs Saved/Cost for AL Teams, 2011

Team	RSAA	BPR	FRS	PRS
New York	60	-22	-2	84
Chicago	11	-24	-8	43
Texas	40	-34	34	40
Detroit	6	-11	-21	38
Oakland	38	19	-17	36
Seattle	42	24	-1	19
Los Angeles	84	11	54	19
Boston	-20	-36	-1	17
Tampa Bay	103	28	60	15
Kansas City	-45	-10	0	-35
Toronto	-44	0	16	-60
Cleveland	-43	6	15	-64
Minnesota	-87	11	-24	-74
Baltimore	-143	-16	-42	-85

So, according to this statistic, the Tigers pitching staff was not merely average (as ERA suggests), but significantly better than average.  Other teams that look better according to PRS are the Yankees (4th in ERA, 1st on PRS) and White Sox (8th and 2nd). Some teams who look worse with PRS are the Angles (1st in ERA, 7th in PRS) and Rays (2nd and 9th). 

Because of the uncertainty of the team fielding component, PRS should not be used as an end all of pitching analysis.  Instead it should be viewed as another piece of evidence in pitching evaluation.  Other pitching statistics will be discussed in later posts.

Note: Some of the data for this analysis was extracted from Baseball-Reference.com 

Dombrowski's Press Conference

Most of you have probably read about Dave Dombrowski's press conference this week where he discussed the future of the team.  If you want to hear him for yourself, you can watch the video on MyFoxDetroit.com.  My summary of the conference is listed below:

Some of the big moves already happened during the off-season, so there is less of an urgency to make a bif splash in the off-season.  They will have Doug Fister for the full season which is a major addition.  Delmon Young will probably be back as their starting left fielder, but Dombrowski stopped short of saying it was a sure thing.

Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen will not be coming back.  Brad Penny and Wilson Betemit also probably won't be returning.  Joel Zumaya may be back on a minor league deal.  They would like to re-sign Ramon Santiago, but Dombrowski expects competition from other teams who might see him as a starter.  The Tigers still don't see Santiago as a full-time player.

The main focus during the off-season will be second base and third base.  At the present time, the only second baseman they have is Ryan Raburn and he's not a starter.  Dombrowski mentioned Danny Worth and Will Rhymes, but didn't sound really confident that either was a major league second baseman.  Ideally, they would like to find a second baseman who can bat lead off.

They will look for help at third base as well, but Dombrowski thinks that a Don Kelly/Brandon Inge platoon would be acceptable. It appears that finding a second baseman is viewed as a more urgent need.  

Austin Jackson did not hit like a lead-off hitter.  They want him to get back to hitting to right field more often.  They will search for a lead off hitter - preferably a second baseman.   However, Dombrowski's reluctance to guarantee Young the starting left field job suggests that they might be open to finding their lead off man there.

They are going to add a right-handed back-up catcher, so that Victor Martinez can be the every day designated hitter.  I was hoping that Inge would be able to fill that role, but apparently he's either physically unable or just doesn't feel comfortable as a catcher.  That's unfortunate, because having Martinez DH and carrying another catcher uses up a valuable bench spot.  The bench could consist of Raburn, the second half of the third-base platoon (Inge?), a back-up middle infielder and a back-up outfielder.

The Tigers will not be as aggressive pursuing free agents this year, so don't expect any quick signings like Joaquin Benoit and Victor Matinez last year. 

Dombrowski is not worried about the bullpen.  He expects Al Alburquerque, Daniel Schlereth and Ryan Perry to contribute, but is open to adding a more reliable middle reliever.

Dombrowski thinks one of Jacob Turner, Duane Below, Drew Smyly or Adam Wilk could emerge as the fifth starter.  However, he would also like to add a veteran as insurance, preferably a left-hander.  I suspect one or two of those prospects could be involved in a trade to get help elsewhere.


Let the serious rumors begin.

Players Say Verlander Was Best

Justin Verlander tweeted yesterday afternoon that there would be a big announcement that night.  Fans speculated whether there was going to be some kind of trade or signing involving the Tigers or whether it would be something more personal such as a marriage to his long-time girl friend.  It turned out that the Tigers ace won both the MLB Players of the Year and the American League Outstanding Pitcher at the Players Choice Awards.  It is quite an honor to be recognized by his peers as the best player in the game.

The Players Choice Award leads to the question as to whether Verlander might win the coveted Most Valuable Player Award for the American League.  It's a foregone conclusion that he will win the Cy Young Award, but it's rare for a pitcher to win the MVP.  I'm not sure if the players choosing him necessarily bodes well for him winning the MVP as the writers have a long history of choosing position players.

Many fans will argue that a starting pitcher is just as valuable as a hitter even if he starts just once every five games.  The reasoning is that a pitcher's impact on one game is much greater than that of a hitter.  That is a legitimate argument, but I don't know if it's the main issue.

My feeling is that the Cy Young Award is the pitchers award and the MVP is the position players award and I would guess that many writers share that sentiment.  The Cy Young is like the MVP for pitchers, so I'm not sure it's fair that they can also win the actual MVP. If they are going to have an MVP for everyone plus an award just for pitchers, shouldn't they also have a separate award just for position players?

Of course, many will argue that there is a difference between "most valuable player" and "most outstanding player".  I am probably in the minority, but my argument is that they both mean the same thing.  I view the player that helps his team win the most games (regardless of the quality of the team) as both the most outstanding and most valuable player.  In the case of pitchers, that is the Cy Young.  For position players, that is the MVP.

Now, if we are just going to have one award for for both pitchers and hitters, I think Verlander is a legitimate choice.  I do question the selections of the other two fnalists - Yankees center fielder Curtis Granderson and Red Sox first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.  I think Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp and Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista, just to name two, would have been better choices.

I talked yesterday about Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera getting snubbed in the Silver Slugger Award voting.  He was clearly a better hitter than Gonzalez.  You could make a case that Gonzalez makes up the difference with his fielding, but I don't believe that defense at first base has enough of an impact to close that gap.  

Anyway, the AL MVP vote will be interesting.  Cabrera is getting no respect from anyone, so I don't think he'll be in the running.  Verlander probably has a good chance, although I'd bet on Granderson.  As I explained above, I would not choose Verlander because of how I define the awards.  I would choose Bautista.  However, I would understand if others voted for Verlander based on their own definitions of the award

Avila Wins Siver Slugger, Cabrera Robbed

Tigers catcher Alex Avila has won his first American League Silver Slugger award after leading all catchers with a .895 OPS and 31.2 Batting Runs.  He also was among the top ten in the league regardless of position in both categories.  The closest one to him statistically was Indians receiver Carlos Santana with a .808 OPS and 21.8 Batting Runs. Rangers catcher Mike Napoli had 38.7 Batting Runs, but was frequently used at first base and designated hitter and appeared in only 66 games behind the plate.  It was a well deserved award for Avila and could be his first of many.

On the other hand, Tigers slugging first baseman Miguel Cabrera failed to win an award despite being the top offensive first baseman in the league by a wide margin.  Red Sox first baseman Adrian Gonzalez won the award despite finishing far behind Cabrera in OPS (.957 versus 1.033) and Batting Runs (51.4 versus 71.3).

Gonzalez probably won the award because of his advantage in RBI (117 to 105), but he also led the league in RBI opportunities with 486 base runners.  Cabrera had 460 runners on base in his at bats.  Do not blame the sports writers for this robbery.  Just like the Gold Glove Awards, it is the MLB managers and coaches who vote for the Silver Sluggers. 

Another Tiger who could make a strong case for a Silver Slugger was Jhonny Peralta, who led all AL shortstops with a .824 OPS and 16.3 Batting Runs.  Instead, Asdrubal Cabrera captured the award with a .792 OPS and 15.2 Batting Runs.  This one was close enough where I won't call it a robbery though.       

 

Mark Fidrych on Gold Glove Awards

There was no better interview in baseball than Mark "The Bird" Fidrych, so I was happy when I received this video from Spike Vrusho of Murtaugh TV today.  The video is currently relevant because Fidrych talks about why he didn't win the Gold Glove in 1976.  This is an exclusive video which I had not seen before, so Fidrych fans should check it out. 

Vrushro is also the editor of the book Benchclearing: Baseball's Greatest Fights and Riots which can be found on Amazon. 

Austin Jackson Gets Award for Fielding

Tigers outfielder Austin Jackson did not win a Gold Glove Award this year, but he won a more relevant award.  He was voted the top center fielder on the Fielding Bible All Defensive Team for 2011.  The Fielding Bible awards are selected by a diverse group including statisticians, Baseball Info Solutions Video Scouts who study every game, sports writers, former MLB outfielder Doug Glanville and even fans. The fans were included as part of Tom Tango's Fan Scouting Report, a survey in which some of you participated.

The Gold Glove awards are selected by MLB managers and coaches.  That sounds like a good idea on the surface.  However, it appears that they don't always take the vote seriously.  One year they named Rafael Pameiro the Gold Glove first baseman despite playing only 28 games at the position all year.  Another year, Tigers manager Jim Leyland admitted that good offense is one of the criteria many voters use, which doesn't make much sense.  That might explain why Derek Jeter has won multiple Gold Glove Awards despite consistently posting some of the poorest fielding statistics in the game.

This year, every Fielding Bible voter had Jackson as a top three center fielder except the fans.  He finished fifth in the fan voting.  The only other Tiger to finish in the top ten for his position was catcher Alex Avila, who finished eighth.  Orioles receiver Matt Weiters, who also won the American League Gold Glove, finished first in the Fielding Bible voting.  The statistics suggest that they got it right.  

I will comment more on individual fielding during the off-season.