Best Pitching Rotations Ever

Last year, I used the Baseball-Reference WAR statistic to determine the best infields and outfields in the history of baseball.  Now, I'm going to attempt to do the same thing with pitching rotations.  Pitching is more difficult for a couple of reasons.  In any pitching analysis, there is the challenge of separating run prevention into pitching and fielding.  Lots of statistics have been proposed over the years - ERA, Pitching Runs, FIP, SIERA, WAR, etc.  All are useful but none are perfect or even close to perfect. 

A historical comparison of pitching rotations is even trickier because of the changing use of pitchers over time.  Starting pitchers used to pitch a lot more innings in the early 1900's compared to today where they share a great deal of the workload with relievers.  Determining the quality of a team's starting rotation is an art as well as a science, but when looking at every team between 1901-2011, it's useful to have a formula.  So, I'm going to use the Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement (rWAR) system.  This won't give us a definitive leader board, but it is as good a system as any. 

The rWAR statistic was developed by Sean Smith, now a statistician for a major league team.    It is an estimate of the number of wins a pitcher is worth over a replacement level pitcher (e.g Brad Penny in 2011).  For example, Tigers ace Justin Verlander had 8.6 WAR last year, so he was worth an estimated nine wins more than a pitcher such as Penny.    The rWAR metric is based on a pitcher's innings, ERA and league average ERA.  It also adjusts for the estimated runs saved by the defense behind a pitcher as well as the pitcher's home park.   A very accessible explanation of the measure can be found at Beyond The Boxscore. 

Most of my analysis uses a database purchased from Mr. Smith a couple of years ago.  The data are now housed at Baseball-Reference.  There may be a few small discrepancies between the old database numbers I'm using and Baseball-Reference due to recent upgrades of the system, but nothing that should significantly change the conclusions.  By the way, the r in rWAR stands for "Rally" which was Sean's screen name. 

Now that we've established that rWAR is the statistic of choice, the next step is to develop a set of criteria qualifying a staff as one of the best.  Because five-man rotations have not always been used, four-man rotations will be selected.  I wanted each of the four pitchers in a rotation to have some level of both quantity and quality so the following criteria were chosen for each pitcher: at least 20 starts, 162 innings pitched and two rWAR. 

The top quartets of all time according to rWAR and the stated qualifications are listed in Table 1 below.  The best rotation was the 1912 Boston Red Sox with 24.1 rWAR.  That foursome was headed by right-hander Smoky Joe Wood (9.6 rWAR) who posted a 1.91 ERA in 344 innings.  Other top starters on that team were Buck O'Brien (5.3 rWAR), Ray Collins (5.1) and Hugh Bedient (4.1).

 Table 1: Best Starting Rotations by Baseball-Reference WAR, 1901-2011

Year	Team	Pitcher 1	WAR	Pitcher 2	WAR	Pitcher 3	WAR	Pitcher 4	WAR	Total
1912	BOS	Smoky Joe Wood	9.6	Buck O'Brien	5.3	Ray Collins	5.1	Hugh Bedient	4.1	24.1
1946	DET	Hal Newhouser	9.0	Dizzy Trout	7.2	Virgil Trucks	3.9	Fred Hutchinson	3.8	23.9
1969	CHN	Bill Hands	8.8	Fergie Jenkins	7.6	Ken Holtzman	4.7	Dick Selma	2.7	23.8
1909	CHN	Mordecai Brown	8.7	Orval Overall	7.1	Ed Reulbach	5.5	Jack Pfiester	2.3	23.6
1956	CLE	Early Wynn	8.2	Herb Score	7.6	Bob Lemon	5.4	Mike Garcia	2.4	23.6
1967	PHI	Jim Bunning	8.4	Chris Short	6.6	Rick Wise	3.7	Larry Jackson	3.6	22.3
1985	NYN	Dwight Gooden	11.7	Ron Darling	4.4	Sid Fernandez	3.7	Ed Lynch	2.4	22.2
1966	LAN	Sandy Koufax	10.8	Don Sutton	4.3	Claude Osteen	3.7	Don Drysdale	3.2	22.0
1949	DET	Virgil Trucks	7.2	Hal Newhouser	5.9	Fred Hutchinson	4.4	Ted Gray	3.5	21.0
1991	ATL	Tom Glavine	7.4	John Smoltz	4.7	Steve Avery	4.5	Charlie Leibrandt	4.3	20.9
1913	NY1	Christy Mathewson	6.8	Rube Marquard	5.1	Jeff Tesreau	5.0	Al Demaree	4.0	20.9
1968	SLN	Bob Gibson	11.9	Ray Washburn	4.0	Nelson Briles	2.5	Steve Carlton	2.5	20.9
1997	ATL	Greg Maddux	7.3	Tom Glavine	5.0	John Smoltz	4.5	Denny Neagle	4.1	20.9
1901	BSN	Vic Willis	7.2	Bill Dinneen	5.1	Kid Nichols	4.9	Togie Pittinger	3.6	20.8
1987	KCA	Bret Saberhagen	7.0	Charlie Leibrandt	5.5	Mark Gubicza	4.6	Danny Jackson	3.6	20.7

The second best staff was the 1946 Detroit Tigers with 23.9 rWAR.  They were led by Hall-of-Fame southpaw Hal Newhouser (9.0 rWAR).  Prince Hal had a league-leading 1.94 ERA in 293 innings and earned his second consecutive MVP that year.  Other major contributors were Dizzy Trout (7.2), Virgil Trucks (3.9) and Fred Hutchinson (3.8).  The same cast except for Ted Gray replacing Trout finished ninth with with 21.0 rWAR in 1949.  

 In a later post, I'll concentrate just on the Tigers listing their best rotations of all time.

Justin Verlander Wins Another One

On Friday, Scripps Howard asked a long list of celebrities to give their Super Bowl predictions.  This was Justin Verlander's prediction:

JUSTIN VERLANDER, AL MVP, Cy Young Award winner, Detroit Tigers: New York, 21-17. 

The man can do no wrong. 

Detroit Tigers Top 20 Seasons: #1 1968

In reviewing the history of the Detroit Tigers, I often think about the best seasons to be a Tigers fan.  So, I am writing a series of posts listing the top 20 seasons in Tigers history.  There is no specific formula for determining the best seasons, but there are some criteria which I consider carefully.  Playoff appearances, especially those leading to world championships are, of course, important.  Team dominance as measured by winning percentage and run differential also carries a lot of weight.  

While most of the teams on the list did win a lot of games, this is not simply a ranking of the best teams statistically.  Sometimes, a non-winning season stands out because of great individual achievements or because the team was unique in some way.  I wanted every decade to be represented and since the Tigers have had a couple of poor decades, this was a challenge.  However, the Tigers have managed to put together at least one campaign each decade which was memorable even if it was not a great year in terms of wins and losses and some of those seasons will also be included.   

The entire list of 20 seasons can be found here.

In a city still troubled by the 1967 riots, the 1968 Tigers gave people something to rally around.  After being eliminated on the last day of the regular season in 1967, they destroyed the competition in 1968 finishing with a 103-59 record, 12 games ahead of the second-place Orioles.  The Tigers then capped the season with a thrilling come-from-behind victory over the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series.

So, the 1968 season had social significance, one of the most dominant Tigers teams ever and a suspenseful finish.  It was only one of four championship seasons for the franchise, but all those elements together were enough to make 1968 the best year to be a Tigers fan.  In fact, most fans that I have talked to who experienced both the 1968 and 1984 seasons believe that1968 was the more memorable season of the two.

The 1968 season is called "The Year of the Pitcher" for good reason.  The MLB batting average was just .237 and teams averaged 3.42 runs per game, the lowest since 3.38 RPG in 1908.  Red Sox outfielder Carl Yastrzemski led the AL with a .301 average and Cardinals fire baller Bob Gibson led the majors with a 1.12 ERA.  There was so little offense that the pitchers mound was lowered and the strike zone was shrunk after the season.  

The Tigers allowed a league low 492 runs and ace right hander Denny McLain led the way.  McLain won 31 games that year making him the only MLB pitcher in the last eight decades with at least 30 wins in a season.  He posted a 1.96 ERA in 336 innings, struck out 280 batters and led the league with 28 complete games.  The Tigers also received strong contributions from Earl Wilson (19 ERA+ in 224 innings), Mickey Lolich (17 wins, 197 K) and swing man John Hiller (126 ERA+).

Offensively, the Tigers led the league with 671 runs scored despite an injury limiting star right fielder Al Kaline to 350 at bats.  They batted just .235 but their total of 185 home runs was about 40% higher than any other team in the league.  Leading the home run parade were outfielder Willie Horton (36), catcher Bill Freehan (25), first baseman Norm Cash (25) and outfielder Jim Northrup (21).  Horton also led the team and finished third in the league with a 165 OPS+. They had enough offense to overcome an anemic .135 batting average and 20+ OPS from starting shortstop Ray Oyler. 

The Tigers faced the Cardinals in the World Series in what would be billed as the battle of aces - McLain versus Gibson.  However, McLain didn't have a great series and Lolich stole the show with three victories.  The series is also remembered as the one where Tigers manager Mayo Smith boldly moved center fielder Mickey Stanley to shortstop so that a healthy Kaline, Northrup and Horton could play the outfield.

The Cardinals toyed with the Tigers in taking a three to one series lead behind a 17-strikeout performance from Gibson in game one and easy wins in game three and four.  Lolich kept the Tigers alive with a win in game two.

The Tigers then made one of the greatest comebacks in World Series history winning the last three games.  In game five, they scored three runs in the seventh to beat the Cardinals 5-3 with Lolich earning his second win of the series.  The Bengals then scored 10 runs in the third inning in a 13-1 rout in game six.  finally, Lolich out pitched Gibson as the Tigers won 4-1 in game seven.

Thus, the Tigers won their third world championship in dramatic fashion to end what was the most memorable season in franchise history.  
 
Some of data for this article were gathered from Baseball-Reference.com and Retrosheet.org

Detroit Tigers Top 20 Seasons: #2 1984

In reviewing the history of the Detroit Tigers, I often think about the best seasons to be a Tigers fan.  So, I am writing a series of posts listing the top 20 seasons in Tigers history.  There is no specific formula for determining the best seasons, but there are some criteria which I consider carefully.  Playoff appearances, especially those leading to world championships are, of course, important.  Team dominance as measured by winning percentage and run differential also carries a lot of weight.  

While most of the teams on the list did win a lot of games, this is not simply a ranking of the best teams statistically.  Sometimes, a non-winning season stands out because of great individual achievements or because the team was unique in some way.  I wanted every decade to be represented and since the Tigers have had a couple of poor decades, this was a challenge.  However, the Tigers have managed to put together at least one campaign each decade which was memorable even if it was not a great year in terms of wins and losses and some of those seasons will also be included.   

The entire list of 20 seasons can be found here.

If this was a series about the most dominant Tigers teams, the 1984 squad would finish on top.  Their 35-5 start was the best in baseball history and they went on to win the division, the playoffs and the World Series virtually unchallenged.  They also led the league in runs scored and fewest runs allowed in route to a franchise-best 104 wins.

So, why is this team not number one on the top twenty seasons list?  The reason is because they were so good that it was a season without drama.  After the fast start, fans just waited for the playoffs hoping there would not be an epic collapse.  There would be no collapse.  Instead, they led the AL east division from wire to wire and won by 15 games over the Blue Jays.  The post-season turned out to be as easy as the regular season.  In the end, this season is best remembered for the first forty games.

In 1983, the Tigers had gone 92-70 and finished in second place, six games behind the Orioles.  During the off-season, they made two major moves which put the finishing touch on an already strong roster.  First, they signed free agent first baseman Darrell Evans in December.  Then they obtained reliever Willie Hernandez and first baseman Dave Bergman in a three-team deal with the Phillies and Giants near the end of spring training.

The Hernandez acquisition would prove to be the bigger of the two deals. He emerged into the league's best closer winning nine games and saving 32 and posting a 1.92 ERA in 141 innings.  He earned a Cy Young and MVP Award for his efforts and was the last Tiger prior to Justin Verlander in 2011 to win either honor.

Hernandez had a lot of help.  It was not a team of superstars, but it was an extremely deep roster with absolutely no weaknesses.  They led the AL with a 3.49 ERA with a variety of weapons.  Right handers Jack Morris (109 ERA+ in 240 innings) and Dan Petry (121 ERA+ in 233 innings) led a strong starting rotation.  They also received solid contributions from Milt Wilcox,Juan Berenguer and Dave Rozema.  Beyond Hernandez in the bullpen, they had husky right-hander Aurelio Lopez (10 wins , 14 saves and a 134 ERA+ in 138 innings).

Offensively, Detroit led the league with 829 runs and 187 homers; yet no player had as many as 100 RBI or 100 runs scored.  It was a well-balanced team with four excellent two-way players up the middle - catcher Lance Parrish (33 homers), second baseman Lou Whitaker (112 OPS+), shortstop Alan Trammell (.314 BA and 135 OPS+) and center fielder Chester Lemon (134 OPS+).  It didn't stop there though.  Right fielder Kirk Gibson led the team with a 141 OPS+, no starter had an OPS+ under 98 and they had a seemingly endless bench. 

The Tigers went on to sweep a mediocre Royals team in three games in the playoffs.  In the World Series, they had little trouble with the Padres winning four games to one.  The only loss came in game two when light-hitting Kurt Bevacqua beat them with a three-run homer in the fifth inning.  It was the only bad thing I can remember happening that year. 

With the series tied at one, the Tigers went home and finished off the Padres with three wins in Tiger Stadium.  They eliminated the Padres with an 8-4 victory in game five, a contest best known for Gibson's three-run homer versus Goose Gossage in the eighth.

Many consider the 1984 squad to be the best Tigers team ever.  It was almost a perfect season, but it was too easy and too lacking in suspense to head the list of most memorable seasons. 

Some of data for this article were gathered from Baseball-Reference.com and Retrosheet.org

Cabrera and Fielder Can be Best Tigers Duo Ever

Newly acquired first baseman Prince Fielder joins soon to be third baseman Miguel Cabrera to form what is probably the best offensive one-two punch in the majors.  It won't be the first dynamic duo in Tigers history though.  Fearsome twosomes such as Deadball stars Ty Cobb and Sam Crawford and Depression era greats Charlie Gehringer and Hank Greenberg quickly come to mind.  So, I am going to rank the best Tigers hitting pairs in franchise history.

Hitting performance can be measured by Batting Runs (BR) which was discussed in an earlier post.  In Summary, Batting Runs is the estimated number of runs a player would contribute to an average team beyond what an average player would have contributed in his place.  For example, Cabrera had 71 Batting Runs in 2011.  So, he contributed 71 runs above what an average player would have been expected to contribute in the same number of outs.  The Batting Runs statistic is described in more detail towards the bottom of the linked article.

The table below lists all seasons where the Tigers had a pair of players combining for 80 or more Batting Runs.  To be certain that both players had great seasons, each was required to have 35+ Batting Runs.

Table: Top Tigers Batting Duos by Batting Runs

Year	Player 1	BR	Player 2	BR	Total
1961	Norm Cash	85	Rocky Colavito	51	136
1911	Ty Cobb	76	Sam Crawford	50	126
1917	Ty Cobb	75	Bobby Veach	41	116
1921	Ty Cobb	52	Harry Heilmann	60	112
1937	Charlie Gehringer	44	Hank Greenberg	67	111
1940	Hank Greenberg	64	Rudy York	42	106
1925	Ty Cobb	48	Harry Heilmann	55	103
1922	Ty Cobb	56	Harry Heilmann	46	102
1934	Charlie Gehringer	50	Hank Greenberg	49	99
1935	Charlie Gehringer	36	Hank Greenberg	62	98
1909	Ty Cobb	62	Sam Crawford	35	97
1913	Ty Cobb	52	Sam Crawford	36	88
1946	Roy Cullenbine	41	Hank Greenberg	43	84
1919	Ty Cobb	43	Bobby Veach	40	83
1914	Ty Cobb	42	Sam Crawford	39	81
1926	Harry Heilmann	42	Heinie Manush	38	80

Data Source: Baseball-Reference.com

The best combined Batting Runs total by two players in Tigers history was 136 by first baseman Norm Cash (85 BR) and outfielder Rocky Colavito (51) in 1961. The pairs appearing most frequently on the list were Cobb and Crawford (four times from 1909-1917), Cobb and under-rated slugger Harry Heilmann (three times from 1921-1925) and Gehringer and Greenberg (three times from 1934-1937).

Where might Cabrera and Fielder fit on this list in the future? They have already had three seasons where their combined totals would have made the table: 127 in 2011, 101 in 2009 and 96 in 2007.  In fact their 2011total would have been the second highest total ever for the Tigers.

Indeed, Detroi's new power duo has a good chance to be one of the best or perhaps the best hitting pair in franchise history.