Verlander and Smyly Among Early Pitching Leaders

Most readers of this blog are aware of the limitations of ERA in evaluating pitcher performance.  Two of the biggest issues are:

(1) ERA gives pitchers full credit/blame for results of batted balls in play despite the fact that they share that responsibility with fielders.  For example, a pitcher with a strong defense behind him will tend to give up fewer hits (and thus fewer runs) than if he had a poor defense behind him.

(2) ERA gives pitchers full responsibility for sequencing or timing of events, that is, it assumes that they can control when they give up hits and walks. For example, if a pitcher pitches extraordinarily well with runners in scoring position in a given year, he will have a lower ERA than if he had a typical year in those situations. Additionally, a pitcher who tends to bunch base runners together in single innings will have a higher ERA than if he had a typical year distributing base runners more evenly.

In reality, pitchers have limited control over both the number of batted balls that drop for hits and sequencing of events.  Thus, Defense Independent Pitching Statistics (DIPS) such as FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA have been developed to remove some of the noise of ERA.  DIPS are based on things that pitchers do control for the most part - walks, hit batsmen, strikeouts, home runs and types of batted balls (ground balls , fly balls, line drives, pop flies).

Because they are based on things that pitchers essentially control, the DIPS metrics are said to be better measures of true talent than ERA.  As a result, they are also better than ERA at predicting future performance. However, they only measure a portion of a pitcher's talent and should be used as complements to ERA rather than as replacements.

More and more fans are becoming comfortable with DIPS theory, but it is still a really difficult concept to get across to the mainstream.  If you ever try to explain FIP or any other DIPS statistic to the uninitiated, you will probably find that they are skeptical of a pitching statistic which ignores hits.  They are not likely to buy into it even if they realize the limitations of ERA. 

So, rather than asking fans to take the big leap from ERA to FIP, why not meet them half way?   Instead of removing hit prevention and sequencing in one step, it might be better to remove one factor at a time.  Bill James did that with his Component ERA (ERC).  Applying the runs created methodology to pitchers, he determined what a pitcher's ERA should have been based on walks, hit batsmen,  strikeouts, homers AND hits allowed.  I'm going to look at some similar statistics here based on more modern measures such as linear weights and Base Runs. 

We often use Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) to measure overall hitting performance and it can also be used for pitchers.  The American League wOBA Against (wOBAA) leaders are shown in Table 1 below.  Tigers ace Justin Verlander is currently third in the league with a .245 wOBAA.  Rookie starter Drew Smyly also ranks among the leaders with a .284 wOBAA. 


Table 1: AL wOBA Against Leaders

Player	Team	IP	wOBAA
Jered Weaver	LAA	50.2	.211
Jake Peavy	CHW	52.1	.225
Justin Verlander	DET	51.1	.245
Jason Hammel	BAL	38.2	.253
Jason Vargas*	SEA	51.2	.259
Gavin Floyd	CHW	46.1	.262
C.J. Wilson*	LAA	41.2	.265
Felix Hernandez	SEA	59.0	.270
Chris Sale*	CHW	33.0	.274
Brandon Morrow	TOR	47.2	.282
CC Sabathia*	NYY	51.1	.283
Drew Smyly*	DET	34.0	.284
Ricky Romero*	TOR	48.0	.285
Jeff Niemann	TBR	33.2	.287
Jake Arrieta	BAL	44.2	.289
Neftali Feliz	TEX	32.0	.294
Tommy Milone*	OAK	43.2	.295
David Price*	TBR	45.1	.295
Jeanmar Gomez	CLE	29.0	.296
Wei-Yin Chen*	BAL	37.0	.297

It's always good to convert to runs allowed when trying to evaluate pitchers, so we'll do that next.  The Base Runs measure was created by David Smythe in the early 1990s.  It is based on the idea that we can estimate team runs scored if we know the number of base runners, total bases, home runs and the typical score rate (the score rate is the percentage of base runners that score on average.  Base Runs also works well for individual pitchers.  The complete formula can be found here.

Justin Verlander has 13 Base Runs Against in 51 1/3 innings so far this year.  This means that he should have allowed an estimated 13 runs based on the number of base runners, total bases and home runs he has allowed.  He has allowed 17 actual runs, so runs are scoring against him at a higher rate than you would expect so far.  That could possibly be due to bad defense, unfortunate timing or just bad luck on locations of batted balls.

Verlander has 11 Base Runs Above Average (RAA) which means that he has saved the Tigers an estimated 11 runs compared to the average pitcher in the same number of innings.  Table 2 shows that he is tied for third in the American League on that metric.  Smyly is 14th with 4 RAA. 

Table 2: AL Runs Above Average Leaders

Player	Team	IP	Base Runs	RAA
Jered Weaver	LAA	50.2	9	14
Jake Peavy	CHW	52.1	11	14
Justin Verlander	DET	51.1	13	11
Felix Hernandez	SEA	59.0	17	11
Gavin Floyd	CHW	46.1	13	9
Jason Vargas*	SEA	51.2	16	9
Jason Hammel	BAL	38.2	10	8
C.J. Wilson*	LAA	41.2	13	7
Ricky Romero*	TOR	48.0	17	5
CC Sabathia*	NYY	51.1	19	5
Chris Sale*	CHW	33.0	11	5
Brandon Morrow	TOR	47.2	18	5
David Price*	TBR	45.1	17	5
Drew Smyly*	DET	34.0	12	4
Tommy Milone*	OAK	43.2	16	4
Jeff Niemann	TBR	33.2	12	4
Neftali Feliz	TEX	32.0	12	4
Henderson Alvarez	TOR	48.1	19	3
Derek Holland*	TEX	46.2	19	3
Jake Arrieta	BAL	44.2	18	3

Finally, Table 3 shows that Verlander has allowed 2.26 Base Runs per nine innings.  About 93% of runs are earned, so multiply this result by .93. to put it on the same scale as ERA. The final result is a weighted component ERA.  Although, I am not using linear weights here, I call it WERC because others have said the like the name. It's really not a novel idea though.  Toirtap of Walk Like a Saber has been using Base Runs to evaluate pitchers for a while but prefers to not convert to the ERA scale.

Getting back to the example, Verlander has a 2.26 WERC which again is third in the league.  This is worse than his actual ERA of 2.63 which indicates that he may be pitching better than his ERA suggests.  Smyly's WERC of 2.93 is not as good as his league-leading 1.59 ERA, but is probably more reflective of how he has pitched - very well, but not the best pitcher in the league.   


Table 3: AL WERC Leaders

Player	Team	IP	Base Runs/9 IP	WERC
Jered Weaver	LAA	50.2	1.69	1.57
Jake Peavy	CHW	52.1	1.90	1.76
Justin Verlander	DET	51.1	2.26	2.10
Jason Hammel	BAL	38.2	2.45	2.28
Gavin Floyd	CHW	46.1	2.57	2.39
Felix Hernandez	SEA	59.0	2.63	2.45
Jason Vargas*	SEA	51.2	2.77	2.57
C.J. Wilson*	LAA	41.2	2.81	2.62
Chris Sale*	CHW	33.0	2.94	2.73
Drew Smyly*	DET	34.0	3.15	2.93
Ricky Romero*	TOR	48.0	3.23	3.00
Neftali Feliz	TEX	32.0	3.27	3.04
Jeff Niemann	TBR	33.2	3.27	3.05
David Price*	TBR	45.1	3.32	3.09
Brandon Morrow	TOR	47.2	3.34	3.10
Jeanmar Gomez	CLE	29.0	3.37	3.13
CC Sabathia*	NYY	51.1	3.40	3.16
Tommy Milone*	OAK	43.2	3.41	3.17
Jake Arrieta	BAL	44.2	3.61	3.35
Derek Holland*	TEX	46.2	3.61	3.36

Note: The raw data used in the above calculations were taken from Baseball-Reference.com

Week 5 Report: Starters Give Tigers Hope

The Tigers had an other uninspiring week going 3-3 versus the White Sox at home and the Mariners in Seattle.  As a result. they are now two games behind the Indians who are off to a good start again this year.

The Tigers continued to slump offensively scoring just 19 runs in six games and are now 8th in the American League with 4.1 runs per game on the season.  They are also just 9th in the AL in OPS (.702) and wOBA (.308).  On a positive note, Austin Jackson kept up his stellar all around play and is second in the league to slugging Josh Hamilton with 2.1 WAR. 

The other good batting story is outfielder Andy Dirks who has emerged as the team leader in batting average (.339), slugging average (.607) and OPS (.969).  In an effortt to jump start the offense, manager Jim Leyland moved Dirks to the second spot in the order replacing the sputtering Brennan Boesch versus right handers.  Unfortunately, the upbeat news ends with Jackson and Dirks as the rest of the line-up has been a disappointment.   

Defensively, the Tigers have allowed 4.2 runs per game, the ninth lowest total in the league.  Much of the blame goes to the fielders who have cost the team an estimated 15 runs more than would be expected from an average group of fielders (taking the average or Total Zone, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating).

Any fan who is paying attention at all has also noticed that the Tigers bullpen is blowing games left and right.  In fact, they are just 11-5 when they have the lead after seventh innings.  That's a far cry from 2011 when they were 77-0 when leading after seven innings. 

Despite the inferior fielding and the leaky bullpen, there is reason for optimism.  Starting pitcher Doug Fister has returned from his side injury and the Tigers now have one of the most formidable starting rotations in the league.  In fact, they had been doing quite well without Fister.

If you strip away the contributions (or lack thereof) of the the fielders and the bullpen and just focus on things that pitchers do on their own., the rotation is at or near the top of the league in most categories (and that includes games in which Adam Wilk started).  For example, The Tigers starters lead the league in fewest walks per nine innings (2.3) and strikeout/walk ratio (3.4).

If we look at all the things that pitchers can control essentially on their own - walks, strikeouts, hit batsmen, home runs and batted ball types (ground ball percentage, line drive percentage, etc), we can get component ERAs.  Component ERAs (found on FanGraphs) estimate what the starters ERA should be based on those events.  The Tigers starters rank quite high on all of them:

FIP 3.48 (1st)
xFIP 3.51 (1st)
tERA 3.73 (3rd)
SIERA 3.50 (1st)

Taking the average of the four above measures, the Tigers estimated ERA based on things they can control should be 3.56.

Table 1 below shows how the Tigers individual starters are doing on the above measures.  The first column is their actual ERA, columns two through five are component ERAs and the final column is the average of the four component ERAs. 

Table 1: Component ERAs of Tigers starters as of May 9, 2012

Pitcher	ERA	FIP	xFIP	tERA	SIERA	Composite
Verlander	2.63	2.34	3.23	2.59	3.15	2.83
Fister	0.00	2.10	2.87	3.59	3.21	2.94
Smyly	1.59	3.07	3.23	3.06	3.18	3.13
Scherzer	6.32	3.84	3.84	3.99	3.48	3.79
Porcello	4.91	4.37	3.70	4.73	3.68	4.12

The composite of the components (or any one component for that matter) is a better predictor of future ERA than actual ERA. So, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello should do a lot better from here on out. I think most fans would be pretty happy if their five starters ended up posting actual ERAs similar to the current composite ERAs by season's end.

The outlook for the starting staff is very encouraging indeed and it's the main reason I'm not too concerned about the team's early struggles.  I'm confident the Tigers will hit better soon and the bullpen is usually the easiest element to upgrade with in-season trades.  Once a starting staff goes bad due to ill health or poor performance. it is generally the hardest thing to repair. Thankfully, the Tigers rotation looks to be in great shape.

Sabermetrics Book on Sale

I'm pleasantly surprised in increased sales of my book Beyond Batting Average since last fall.  I don't know whether it's the Moneyball movie sparking an interest in sabermetrics or word of mouth (keyboard) or whether google is just sending more people to reviews of my book, but the hard copy version of my book is doing pretty well without any recent promotion. 

Not as many people know about the less expensive e-book that can be purchased on Lulu.com.  So, I'm going to take over 40% off through the end of the month.  You can now purchase the e-book version of Beyond Batting Average for $4.00 on Lulu only through May 31, 2012.  The hard copy version costs $14.00 (also available at Amazon).  

Beyond Batting Average was published in 2010 and I believe it is the most up-to-date and comprehensive sabermetrics primer available. It is accessible to fans who are trying to learn sabermetrics and would like a more organized and broader presentation of the subject than you'll typically find on the internet.  It serves as a good introduction to more advanced books such as The Book by Tom Tango, Mitchell Lichtman and Andrew Dolphin

Some of my favorite reviews of Beyond Batting Average are listed below:

Dan Dickerson (Detroit Tigers broadcaster)

I really love Beyond Batting Average - it makes the cut for the "suitcase" library that I take with me on the road...definitely a handy resource

James Bailey Baseball America's Top Ten Books of 2010 

For fans who want to learn more about new sabermetric statistics, Lee Panas' "Beyond Batting Average" is a great resource that can easily be followed by any student of the game...
What the book does particularly well is explain complicated concepts in simple terms.  . 

Neil Paine (Baseball-Reference)

I have no doubt that you'll find it easy to keep up with the stats that Panas presents. I was also impressed with how comprehensively Panas covered each topic; on several occasions, he delved into metrics that even I would not have thought to include in the discussion. Simply put, after reading this, you will be able to converse about sabermetrics with pretty much anybody and hold your own.

Tom Tango (The Book Blog)

If you are a non-mathy guy, but want to understand sabermetrics better, then a huge thumbs up for this book. If you are pretty much comfortable with sabermetrics, but still not there yet (you haven’t run any of your own studies), then a regular thumbs up.

David Gassko (The Hardball Times)

There has not really been a comprehensive resource that explains all the sabermetric statistics you need to know in one simple package. Well, at least there wasn’t until Lee Panas published Beyond Batting Average. 

Dan Szymborski (Baseball Think Factory)

Panas hits all the basic issues quite well and seems to be very up-to-date on what measures are generally used by the statnoscenti of the internet, which is extremely helpful to people who want to jump in with both feet. The author is also very good at telling the reader where these stats can be found and has focused on stats that are readily accessible to the public.

Steve Slowinski (DRays Bay)

Lee's writing is clear and concise, but also quite engaging for a topic that can sometimes get quite nerdy and dull. If you're looking to learn more about sabermetrics and want a book to start you off on the right foot, this is a great book to look into. And even if you already know a good deal about sabermetrics, it's a really handy reference tool. I consider myself well versed in baseball statistics, but I learned a decent bit from the book and I'm sure that I'll be referring to it whenever I have questions over the course of the season. Thanks Lee, this is a keeper.

Justin Inaz (Beyond The BoxScore):

Lee Panas published a terrific sabermetric primer. It's extremely current, with great scope, and will be an awesome resource for those interested in learning more about sabermetrics--especially player valuation statistics. I'm linking to Tango's review of it, but you can find the book on Lulu. If I do my baseball class again next year, I'll probably assign Lee's book.

Toirtap (Walk Like A Sabermerician)

Lee's straightforward approach and knowledge will make it a good resource for those who are just getting into sabermetrics.

Kurt Mensching (Bless You Boys)

With his book, Lee gives the reader a step-by-step guide through how stats were developed and how to best apply them.

Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Potato

Tigers starter Max Scherzer is notorious for his Jeckyl and Hyde ways.  In nine of his 33 starts last year, Mr. Hyde was pounded for five or more runs.  Fortunately, Dr. Jeckyl allowed two or fewer runs in 20 of his starts.  This year, we have mostly seen the bad Scherzer including a seven-walk performance versus the Yankees last Sunday. 

During the week, pitching coach Jeff Jones noticed a flaw in Scherzer's delivery and the two have been working on it in preparation for today's start:

"We're trying to get him to keep his hands more in the middle of his body as opposed to taking them behind him," Jones said. "He's gotten into a little bit of a habit of carrying them behind his body too far. That affects his lead arm getting on the target and staying there long enough."

Today, Scherzer was pitching with a windup placing his hands behind his head during his delivery much like Rick Porcello did in his last start.  The idea was to slow him down and hopefully improve control of his pitches.  The new windup apparently worked as Mr. Scherzer had his best start of the season so far allowing just one run on four hits in seven innings.  He also punched outeight White Sox and, most importantly, walked nobody.

The Tigers needed a strong pitching performance today, because they continued to struggle offensively.  They scored both of their runs in the second inning on four singles by Alex Avila, Jhonny Peralta, Andy Dirks and Austin Jackson. None of the singles were hit hard at all, but it was a two-run rally nevertheless.

Ultimately, a good afternoon came to an awful end when closer Jose Valverde blew a 2-1 lead in the top of the ninth.  The Big Potato allowed a two-run blast to Adam Dunn in the top of the ninth for his second blown save of the season.  His season has been worse than two blown saves though.  He hasn't pitched well walking seven batters in 11 2/3 inning and allowing 1.80 WHIP.  He's developing into a problem for a team which suddenly has more holes than we realized when the season started.

The 3-2 loss leaves the Tigers in second place two games behind the Indians.  The rubber game of the series will be tomorrow with Rick Porcello facing rookie right hander Dylan Axelrod. 

Walk-Off Homer for Jhonny Peralta.

Jhonny Peralta had been a disappointment at the plate this year coming into the game with a .241 batting average and no homers in 86 plate appearances.  Tonight, he picked the perfect spot for his first home run of the year.  He deposited an 0 and 2 pitch from White Sox reliever Matt Thornton into the right-field stands for a two-run homer giving the Tigers and 5-4 walk-off win over Chicago.  Left-handed hitting Alex Avila had set up the game winner with a one-out duck snort single against the same-handed Thornton.

The Tigers have not hit as well as we had hoped this year, but they have been very clutch.  According to the FanGraphs, the Tigers lead the American League in CLUTCH, a statistic which measures how well players do in high-leverage at bats compared to average at bats.  They will move  further ahead of the league after tonight. 

It was a gratifying victory for Tigers fans after Octavio let the game get away on a two-run homer by White Sox second baseman Gordon Beckham in the seventh.  That gave Chicago a 4-2 lead at the time.  The Tigers closed to gap to 4-3 when Miguel Cabrera singled home Don Kelly who also singled in the eighth.

Rookie Drew Smyly gave up two runs for the first time, but it was another excellent performance by the young southpaw.  He allowed two runs while striking on seven and walking nobody in six innings.  Smyly now has an impressive 1.61 ERA and 29/8 K/BB ratio in 28 innings over five starts.

The other hitting star for the Tigers tonight besides Peralta was Avila who went three for three with a double, homer and walk and three runs scored.  Some fans have been impatient with him this year, but he's batting .279/.372/.529 and his .901 OPS actually exceeds his .895 OPS of 2011.  There are plenty of reasons for the Tigers lack of offense this year, but Avila is not one of them.

The win keeps the Tigers a game and a half behind the Indians who beat the powerful Rangers tonight.  The White Sox dropped to three games back.  

Tigers Offense After Four Weeks

The Tigers had another rough week going 2-3 versus the Yankees and Royals.   They now are now tied for second place at 12-12, one game behind whoever wins tonight's Indians/White Sox game.  It's a somewhat disappointing start, but it's the same record they had last year after 24 games.  In fact, the 2011 team fell to 12-17 and eight games behind before they turned their season around.  They ended up with 95 wins and a 15 game lead.  So, let's not panic yet.

Since I wrote about pitching and defense earlier in the week, this week's summary will focus on the offense.  Not many people expected the offense to be a problem when the season started, but so far it's been a little sluggish.  They have scored 4.4 runs per game which places them sixth in the American League.  A look at their offensive ranks among the 14 American League teams shows that it could be worse:

OPS 11th
wOBA11th
BA 8th
OBP 9th
SLG 9th

They rank in the bottom half of the league in just about every offensive category, yet they are sixth in run scoring.  The reason is because they are fifth in the league in batting average with runners in scoring position.  They also lead the league in the Clutch Statistic which looks at how they do in high leverage situations versus normal situations.  So, they haven't been good, but they've been clutch! Being clutch is not something that can be assured with any certainty going forward though, so they need to start hitting better in lower leverage situations.

The biggest problem is they have four positions with sub-.650 OPS:

Delmon Young .644
Jhonny Peralta .624
Brennan Boesch .622
Second Base (Ryan Raburn, Ramon Santiago, etc.) .418

All of them need to do significantly better.  Boesch seems to be slowly coming out of it with a nine-game hitting streak including three home runs.  Another under performer is first baseman Prince Fielder.  His .767 OPS is not horrible, but it's very bad for someone with a career .930 OPS.  That also needs to change soon. 

I'll close out with the one player who is exceeding expectations.  Center fielder Austin Jackson is batting .311/.392/.511 and playing his usual excellent defense.  How good has he been?  As of this morning, he was leading not just the Tigers but the entire AL with 1.9 WAR.

AJax is not likely to keep up his torrid pace for the whole season, but there are a couple of key statistics which suggest real improvement.  His base on balls percentage has increased from 8.4 in 2011 to 12.1 this year.  Also, his isolated power has jumped from .125 to .209.  If he can maintain  portions of those gains in patience and power, he could be on his way to being an all-star caliber outfielder.

So, maybe the Tigers didn't need to acquire a lead-off man after all.  It's the rest of the line-up which needs fixing.