Which Players Have Participated in the Most Runs Since 1950?

Before the Tigers stunned us with the recent acquisitions of Ramon Cabrera, Jeff Kobernus, Kyle Lobstein and Brayan Pena, I was talking a lot about Run Participation Statistics.  A player can participate in his teams' runs in three ways:

• Runs Scored (RS)

• Runs Batted In (RBI)

• Runs Assisted (RAS)

A Run Assisted is any contribution to a team run that does not result in a run scored or RBI for the batter.  The ways a player can get a Run Assisted (RAS) are described below:

• A batter advances a runner to either second or third with a hit, base on balls, hit batsmen, error, sacrifice bunt, or another kind of out.  If that runner then scores either during the same at bat or an ensuing at bat, the batter who advanced him is given a Run Assisted.

• A batter reaches base and is removed for a pinch runner or is replaced by another runner on a force out.  If the new runner then scores, the batter who originally reached base is given a Run Assisted. 

A player gets credit for a Run Participated In (RPI) if he either scores, drives in or assists a run.  There is no double counting for home runs so the formula is RPI = RS + RBI + RAS - HR

As explained in the first post on this subject, RPI is not a replacement for your favorite run estimation metric whether it be Batting Runs or Runs Created or something else.  Like Runs Scored and Runs Batted In, the numbers of Runs Assisted accumulated by a batter depends on opportunities created by teammates,  Thus, RPI is team dependent measure as well. Advanced statistics which try to isolate a batters production from that of his teammates are better measures of true talent and are superior forecasters of future performance than RPI.  

So, why do we need RPI? Many statistical analysts won't have a lot of use for it other than passing curiosity, but there are some benefits.  First, it says something about how actual runs were scored as opposed to how runs theoretically should have been scored.  This concreteness should be appealing to players, media and traditional fans.  People are going to look at RBI whether we like it or not, so why not encourage them to consider something better than RBI but which still looks at actual runs? 

Because it deals with actual runs, it's also possible that RPI and potential derivatives of RPI might tell us something about run scoring that say Batting Runs does not tell us.  Just like some pitchers seem to have an ERA skill beyond what their peripherals suggest, some batters might have run participation skills which exceed their abilities to get on base and slug.

Some of the noise surrounding run participation tends to go away over the course of a long career. Pitcher wins are not very relevant on a year-to-year basis, but become more useful over the long-term.  Run participation metrics - RS, RBI and RAS - are the same way.  Table 1 presents the RPI leaders since 1950, the first complete year of Retrosheet data (required in order to calculated RAS).

The table tells us that Hall-of-Fame slugger Hank Aaron has been involved in more runs (4,521) than any player since 1950.  Current Hall candidate Barry Bonds is second at 4,490.  The leading Tiger is Al Kaline with 3,777, good for 15th on the list. 

Table 1: MLB Runs Participated In Leaders, 1950-2012

Player	PA	RS	RBI	RAS	HR	RPI
Hank Aaron	13,518	2,096	2,213	950	738	4,521
Barry Bonds	12,606	2,227	1,996	1,029	762	4,490
Carl Yastrzemski	13,991	1,816	1,844	1,166	452	4,374
Pete Rose	15,885	2,165	1,313	1,056	160	4,374
Alex Rodriguez	11,163	1,898	1,950	905	647	4,106
Willie Mays	12,179	2,002	1,847	897	641	4,105
Eddie Murray	12,817	1,627	1,917	1,015	504	4,055
Rickey Henderson	13,345	2,295	1,115	903	297	4,016
Dave Winfield	12,356	1,669	1,833	897	465	3,934
Derek Jeter	11,895	1,868	1,254	1,046	255	3,913
Frank Robinson	11,740	1,830	1,812	852	586	3,908
Rafael Palmeiro	12,046	1,663	1,835	961	569	3,890
Cal Ripken	12,883	1,647	1,695	957	431	3,868
Paul Molitor	12,167	1,782	1,307	940	234	3,795
Al Kaline	11,596	1,622	1,582	972	399	3,777
George Brett	11,625	1,583	1,596	894	317	3,756
Chipper Jones	10,614	1,619	1,623	954	468	3,728
Gary Sheffield	10,947	1,636	1,676	923	509	3,726
Ken Griffey	11,304	1,662	1,836	847	630	3,715
Robin Yount	12,249	1,632	1,406	913	251	3,700

Runs Participated In is a counting statistic which is influenced greatly by length of career, so it's good to also have a rate measure.  One possibility is Runs Participated In Percentage (RPI%) which is the percentage of a teams' runs in which a player participated.  For example, Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera participated in 253 runs out of 726 total runs for the Tigers in 2012, so he had a 34.8% RPI%.  The RPI% statistic might tell us how much a team relied on a player to score runs.  As such, some fans might find it useful in MVP voting.  The limitation of course is that a player my benefit from having less productive teammates surrounding him in the order. 

Over the course of a career, you can average a player's annual RPI%'s to arrive a career RPI%.  The RPI% leaders since 1950 are listed in Table 2 below.  Contemporary superstar Albert Pujols is the leader at 31.7%.  This includes a high of 36.7% in 2009 with the Cardinals.   Former Pirates great Ralph Kiner is second at 30.9%.  The top Tiger is Cabrera, who is fifth at 29.6%.

Table 2: MLB Run Participated In Percentage Leaders, 1950-2012

Player	PA	RPI	RPI%
Albert Pujols	8,103	2,978	31.7
Ralph Kiner	2,920	938	30.9
Jeff Bagwell	9,431	3,401	29.9
Kirby Puckett	7,831	2,566	29.9
Miguel Cabrera	6,473	2,235	29.6
Andrew McCutchen	2,497	725	29.2
Ryan Braun	3,854	1,332	29.1
Hank Aaron	13,518	4,521	29.1
Stan Musial	7,012	2,440	28.5
Al Rosen	4,309	1,468	28.2
Ron Santo	9,373	2,784	28.2
Matt Holliday	5,517	1,948	27.9
Billy Williams	10,495	3,323	27.8
Eddie Murray	12,817	4,055	27.7
Willie Mays	12,179	4,105	27.6
David Wright	5,453	1,809	27.6
Ichiro Suzuki	8,724	2,345	27.5
Barry Bonds	12,606	4,490	27.4
Hunter Pence	3,787	1,097	27.4
Minnie Minoso	7,624	2,702	27.4

 
The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.  Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at Retrosheet.org.

Tigers Sign Catcher Brayan Pena

The Tigers signed catcher Brayan Pena to a one-year contract today with the expectation that he will be the back-up for Alex Avila in 2013.  Pena batted just .236 with 13 extra base hits and an alarmingly low 9 walks in 226 plate appearances for the Royals in 2012.  The 31-year-old receiver is a switch hitter, but does not hit well from either side of the plate posting OPS's of .646 versus right handers and .613 versus lefties for his career. 

As a veteran of eight major league seasons, you would think Pena would have more to offer than his ability (or inability) to switch hit and he does appear to have some defensive skills.  According to my catcher defense algorithm, the five-foot-nine, 230 pound catcher saved the Royals about six runs over the average catcher in 2011-2012.  He was above average in preventing passed balls/wild pitches and stopping the running game for the two years combined.  He threw out 24% of base runners attempting to steal in 2012 which is only average, but nailed 36% in 2011 and 30% for bis career.

According to Mike Fast's research at Baseball Prospectus, Pena also seems to have a skill for framing pitches.  Between 2007-2011, he saved the Royals his team an estimated 19 runs with pitch framing which is pretty impressive for a catcher with limited playing time.  No data are available for 2012, but it is apparently a repeatable skill.

While it appears that Pena is a good defender with experience dealing with a lot of different pitchers, it is a little disappointing that the Tigers did not sign a better hitter versus left-handed pitchers which give Avila fits. Avila's recurring knee problems are also a concern as there a risk that he could be out for an extended period leaving a black hole in the line-up at catcher.

One alternative might have been Kelly Shoppach who has a .868 lifetime OPS versus southpaws.  Shoppach likely would have cost a little more and may have wanted more guaranteed playing time, so maybe it was not something they could work out.  At any rate, they have gone the no bat good glove route with Pena.              

Tigers Acquire Jeff Kobernus, Kyle Lobstein Via Rule 5 Draft

The Tigers acquired second baseman Jeff Kobernus and left-handed pitcher Kyle Lobstein by way of the Rule 5 draft this morning.  Kobernus was actually drafted by the Red Sox and traded to the Tigers for utility man Justin Henry.  Lobstein was drafted by the Mets and then purchased by the Tigers.

The 24-year-old Kobernus has a .279/.316/.356 batting line in four minor league seasons in the Nationals system.  So, he has neither power nor on-base skills.  What he does have, according to the 2012 Baseball America Prospect Handbook, is "plus plus speed".  He stole 42 bases in 53 attempts in 2012.  He is also considered a solid defender at second.  Baseball America also reports that Kobernus has a "hard-nosed style of play" which may endear him to manager Jim Leyland but has also contributed to nagging injuries throughout his minor league career.

With his limited skills, it's hard to see Kobernus sticking with the Tigers unless he adds some positional versatility.  General manager Dave Dombrowski thinks he can play outfield and perhaps shortstop.  However, he has played only four games professionally at short and none in the outfield.

Lobstein started 27 games for Double-A Montgomery in 2012 posting an ERA of 4.06 and an unimpressive 129/69 K/BB ratio in 144 innings.  The 23-year-old southpaw does not throw hard but, by most accounts, has good command of his pitches which include fastball, curve ball  and change-up.  While he walked a lot of batters in 2012, Kobernus generally has much better control - just 2.4 strikeouts per nine innings in 2011 for example. 

Although he has started almost exclusively in the minors, Lobstein will compete for the second lefty reliever role behind Phil Coke in spring training.  Other possibilities include Duane Below and Darin Downs. 

So, the Tigers have added a gritty second baseman and a crafty lefty, who they hope can help the team in 2012.  There is a good possibility that both will be returned to their former teams prior to the start of the season though. 

Tigers Acquire Catcher Ramon Cabrera from Pirates

The Tigers made their first move of the winter meetings today when they acquired minor league catcher Ramon Cabrera from the Pirates in exchange for left-handed pitcher Andy Oliver.  Cabrera batted .278 with a .343 on-base percentage and 39/44 BB/K ratio in 428 plate appearances mostly with Double-A Altoona in 2012.  The 23-year-old Venezuelan had an impressive .343/.410/.473 line in 92 games for High Single-A Bradenton in 2011.

According to the 2012 Baseball America Prospect Handbook (the link points to the 2013 book so you won't make the mistake of buying last year's book), "Cabrera slashes line drives to the gaps from both sides of the plate".  The five-foot-eight 195-pound switch hitter makes good contact and is tough to strikeout but lacks power and has just 13 home runs in over 1,600 professional plate appearances.  

Baseball America says that "Cabrera is agile behind the plate and moves surprisingly well on the bases.  He also has a good feel for calling a game."  His arm is not great as he threw out just 20% of base runners attempting to steal last year.  On a positive note, his passed balls decreased from 14 in 2011 to 5 in 2012.

Mark Anderson of TigsTown tweeted that Cabrera will provide competition for Bryan Holaday in 2013.  Jason Beck reports that he is not a candidate to back up next year.  Which one is right?  I suspect both may be right, because I still expect the Tigers to add an experienced major league receiver to be the primary backup.

Oliver was one of the top prospects in the Tigers system a couple of years ago, but has battled control problems in both the minors and majors.  He posted a 4.88 ERA and walked 88 batters in just 118 innings for Triple-A Toledo in 2012.  He had a 7.11 ERA in seven starts for the Tigers in 2010-2011.

Thoughts on Winter Meetings

The best week of baseball's hot stove season is about to begin as the general managers are gathering in Nashville for the MLB Winter Meetings.  There is sure to be a lot of activity in terms of trades and free agent signings.  Last year, 26 players were traded and 38 free agents signed including first baseman Albert Pujols, and pitchers Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson.

The Tigers did not make a lot of noise at the 2011 meetings.  Their biggest transaction was signing free agent reliever Octavio Dotel.  In smaller moves, they also signed minor league pitcher Chris Bootcheck and traded reliever Ryan Perry to the Nationals for reliever Collin Balestar.

In past years, General Manager Dave Dombrowski shook up the meetings in a big way.  In 2007, he acquired future MVP Miguel Cabrera in a eight-player deal withe the Marlins.  Two years later, he acquired center fielder Austin Jackson and pitchers Phil Coke and Max Schlereth while giving up outfielder Curtis Granderson as part of a three-team, seven-player trade with the Diamondbacks and Yankees. 

The Tigers have already gotten a head start on their 2013 roster by acquiring second baseman Omar Infante from the Marlins in July and signing free agent outfielder Torii Hunter in November.  They will also be adding designated hitter Victor Martinez, who missed all of last season with a knee injury.  I don't think they are done yet though.

The Tigers still have several needs including a starting pitcher, a closer, a more athletic shortstop, a right-handed hitting outfielder and a back-up catcher.  They are trying to sign free agent right hander Anibal Sanchez, who was acquired from the Marlins in the Infante deal.  He is going to be really expensive though - perhaps five years $75 million or even higher if some team goes crazy.

Owner Mike Illitch is not shy about spending money, but the Tigers have not typically gotten involved in bidding wars for free agent agent starting pitchers.  They have preferred to develop their own starters or acquire them in trades.   When they spend big money, it is usually for a hitter such as Martinez, Prince Fielder,  Magglio Ordonez or Pudge Rodriguez.  Both Dombrowski and Illitch want Sanchez though, so it's a possibility, but it's only going to happen if Illitch ups the payroll substantially again this year.   

Dombrowski has said that the Tigers will not pursue a closer and will instead find one among Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, Octavio Dotel and rookie Bruce Rondon.  I don't believe they are really set there though as Rondon is still a big unknown and the others seem better fit for setup roles.  I don't think they'll go after the big prize Rafael Soriano, but they may go after someone like free agent Joakim Soria or trade for J.J Putz of the DiamondBacks or Joel Hanrahan of the Pirates. 

As for shortstops, the Tigers have been linked to free agent Stephen Drew and Indians shorstop Asdrubal Cabrera of the Indians .  Astros infielder Jed Lowrie and Marlins recent acquisition Yunel Escobar are also believed to be available.  If they can acquire a shortstop, that would make Peralta expendable.  Entering the off-season I thought that Peralta would be the Tigers 2013 shortstop, but now it looks more like they want to make a change.  The best bet here is that Dombrowski rolls the dice on Drew and then trades Peralta to a team like Arizona or Boston.

Dombrowski has been reluctant to commit to Andy Dirks as a full-time outfielder and the Tigers would prefer that youngsters Nick Castellanos and Avisail Garcia get more seasoning in the minors.  The Tigers were linked to Arizona's Justin Upton earlier in the off-season, so maybe that will be this year's blockbuster.  As much as Upton would be an upgrade though, he is probably not the type of player for which they would sell the farm.  So, I'm not expecting that.  Rather, I would look for them to sign a right-handed hitting outfielder to platoon with Dirks.  Free agents Scott Hairston and Cody Ross are two possibilities, although Ross is seeking a full-time role. 

Finally, the Tigers are in need of a backup catcher for the oft-injured Alex Avila.  Rookie Bryan Holaday has the defensive skills to backup once or twice per week, but would probably not be an adequate replacement if Avila goes down for more than a week with an injury (which seems inevitable given Avila's durability problems).  Dombrowski has said he is comfortable with Holaday as the backup, but I don't believe him.  I think they will sign a right-handed hitting catcher such as Jesus Flores, Kelly Shoppach or Geovanny Soto.

There is plenty of time left in the off-season and they are not likely to do all of the above next week.   Remember, they waited until the last week of January to make their biggest move of the 2011-2012 off-season.  That, of course, was the signing of Fielder to a nine-year contract. I don't think they'll disappoint this week though.  I fully expect Dombrowski to swing a deal or two in Nashville.