Is The Tigers Offense Inconsistent?

How consistent has the Tigers offense been this year?
(Photo credit: Steve Mitchell, USA Today Sports)

Throughout the year, Tigers fans have expressed a good deal of frustration with the Tigers offense.  If you look at the raw statistics, the Tigers lead the American League with a .754 OPS and are third with 4.6 runs per game.  So, what's the problem?  The claim is that the Tigers offense is "inconsistent".  I'm going to investigate that theory here.

One definition of inconsistent is that they mix good hitting months with poor hitting months.  Table 1 below shows that their offensive output was very similar from April through July scoring 4.5 runs per game in April, 4.7 in May, 4.7 in June and 4.8 in July.  They also ranked between second and fourth in the AL each month. The outlier is August where they have scored only 3.8 runs per game, good for only ninth in the league.  So, it's been a bad month so far, but they were pretty consistent the first four months.

Table 1: Tigers Runs Per Game By Month

Month	RPG	Rank
April	4.5	4
May	4.7	4
June	4.7	4
July	4.8	2
August	3.8	9

Data Source: BaseballProspectus.com

Another thought is that the Tigers have a good season average runs per game, but they have a disproportionate number of games where the offense goes completely flat.  As shown in Table 2 below, the average MLB team has scored either 0 or 1 runs in 19% of their games which is probably more than you thought.  The Tigers have been held to 0-1 runs only 15% of the time, so they have been shut down less than the average team.  Additionally, the Tigers have scored just 2-3 runs in 26% games compared to the MLB average of 29%.

The Tigers score more runs than an average team though, so it makes sense to compare them to the best hitting teams.  The run distributions for the eight highest scoring teams is included in Table 2.  Only the Angels have had fewer games of 0-1 runs (8%) with all the other teams falling between 15%-17%.  Moreover, only two teams - the Brewers (24%) and Blue Jays (25%) - have had fewer games of 2-3 runs.  Overall, the Tigers run distribution looks quite typical for a good hitting team.

Table 2: Distribution of Runs Per Game

Team	RPG	0-1	2-3	4-5	6+
MLB Avg	4.1	19%	29%	25%	27%
Oakland	4.8	15%	28%	22%	35%
Los Angeles (AL)	4.7	8%	32%	26%	33%
Colorado	4.7	17%	30%	18%	34%
Detroit	4.6	15%	26%	26%	33%
Toronto	4.5	17%	25%	25%	33%
Cleveland	4.3	16%	31%	24%	29%
Milwaukee	4.3	17%	24%	30%	30%
Baltimore	4.3	15%	32%	22%	32%

Data Source: BaseballProspectus.com

Based on the data above, it seems that the Tigers offense have been pretty consistent this season relative to other teams.  They are having a bad month though and that needs to be turned around quickly.

Tigers Defense Is As Bad As It Looks

Tigers Third baseman Nick Castellanos is one of many who has contributed to poor team defense
(Photo source: Oakland Press)

Much has been made of the Tigers abysmal bullpen and for good reason, but that is not the only problem facing a team which now chases a division title which many assumed belonged to them.  Their offense has struggled in the second half and the pitching injuries have recently begun to pile up, but one theme that has stayed true all year as it has for the past few years is poor team defense.   

If you've watched a lot of games, you may have guessed that the Tigers have one of the worst fielding teams in baseball and the numbers back it up.  One of the simplest measures is Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER) introduced by Bill James in the 1978 Baseball Abstract.  It is the percent of batted balls, not including home runs, which are converted into outs by a team's fielders.  The Tigers DER of .677 ranks 27th in MLB.

A more advanced measure is Total Zone (RTOT on Baseball-Reference.com) created by analyst Sean Smith from Retrosheet.org play-by-play data. Total Zone considers the following items: plays made, errors, which fielder makes each out, balled ball type, which fielder fielded each hit, handedness of pitcher and batter and park adjustments.  Plays made above average are calculated and converted into runs using situational run expectancies. The Tigers rank  last in the majors with an estimated 60 runs below average.

Even more complex, although not necessarily more accurate than Total Zone, is the Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) statistic developed by John Dewan, owner of Baseball Information Solutions.  The DRS system breaks the field into small areas and determines the probabilities of players making plays in each area based on location, speed (hard, medium, soft) and batted ball type (ground ball, fly ball, line drive, bunt).

These probabilities determine how many outs each player was expected to make and how many he actually did make in comparison to the average player. At the end, plays made above or below average is converted to runs saved/cost.  According to DRS, the Tigers defense has cost them 42 runs this year which places them 28th in baseball.

Table 1 below shows that the Tigers rank very similarly on all three measures - DER, Total Zone, DRS - in both 2013 and 2014.  This tells us that their attempt to improve defense this year has not worked out too well.

Table 1: Tigers Team Defense: 2013 versus 2014

	2013		2014
Statistic	Number	Rank	Number	Rank
DER	.682	26	.677	27
Total Zone	-57	28	-60	30
DRS	-64	28	-42	28

Data Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Total Zone and DRS can also be broken down at the individual level, although the player numbers tend to be less reliable than team numbers.  Table 2 shows how many runs individual fielders have saved/cost the Tigers based on these measures.  Both systems agree that second baseman Ian Kinsler (+10 on Total Zone, +15 on DRS) and catcher Alex Avila (+8 and +5) have been positive contributors defensively.

Most other Tigers are below average on these measures, the only exception being first baseman Miguel Cabrera who is +7 on Total Zone, but -1 on DRS.  Both systems say that third baseman Nick Castellanos (-17 and -23) and right fielder Torii Hunter (-13 and -15) have been awful defensively and you won't get many arguments from observers.  Outfielders Austin Jackson (-23) and Rajai Davis (-15) both do very poorly or Total Zone, but not quite as bad on DRS.

Table 2: Defensive Numbers for Individual Tigers in 2014

Player	Total Zone	DRS
Kinsler	+10	+15
Avila	+8	+5
Romine	-2	0
Cabrera	+7	-1
Davis	-15	-1
J. Martinez	-4	-1
Jackson	-23	-3
Suarez	-1	-4
Hunter	-13	-15
Castellanos	-17	-23

  Data Source: Baseball-Reference.com

So, if your eyes have been telling you that the Tigers defense has been terrible, they have not deceived you. It's not likely to get any better this year and will probably be an area of concern once again this off-season.  

The PNC Park Experience

PNC Park - August 12, 2014

I spent the last few days in Pittsburgh where I visited PNC Park for the first time.  It was a 10-hour road trip, so I was hoping it would be worth the trouble.  The drive itself actually wasn't too bad.  For someone who is conditioned to the crazy Boston-area traffic, driving west is always a relief.  The lack of traffic made the huge state of Pennsylvania seem small relative to tiny Massachusetts and Connecticut.

The city of Pittsburgh (named the city of bridges for good reason!) was nice, better than expected.  Despite living in congested eastern Massachusetts and having worked in Boston for eleven years, I prefer smaller towns and sometimes find large cities to be intimidating.  Pittsburgh felt comfortable though - not crowded or noisy, not a lot of obvious poverty; yet definitely not yuppy and artificial either.

Much like Boston, Pittsburgh is good for walking.  Most things you'd want to see were within reasonable walking distance of each other.  As a bonus, I spent several hours exploring Pittsburgh's extensive system of bike paths mostly along the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers.

Along with thousands of other fans, I approached PNC Park via the Roberto Clemente Bridge which is closed to traffic immediately before and after games.  It's quite a sight seeing masses of fans cross the bridge with no automobiles in sight, especially after the game with everyone leaving the park and crossing at the same time.  It's not quite like the Verrazzano Narrows Bridge during the New York marathon, but still impressive.

The only negative thing I'm going to write about here is ballpark security, but that's something that is getting bad at all parks.  It felt almost like going through an airport - pockets emptied and arms up.  At least they didn't make us take off our shoes.  It wasn't awful but it slows things down unnecessarily and makes a fun event seem briefly intimidating.  I don't think it makes us any safer either.  I'm not quite sure why Americans have allowed security to reach this point with so little complaint...At least we were rewarded with a Honus Wagner bobble head.

I got great seats on the first base side for about half the price I would pay at Fenway  Park.  I entered the park through the wrong gate and had to walk a long way before I reached my seat but that gave me a chance to view a lot of different areas and it seemed like the view of the field would be good from any section.

PNC Park was quite similar to Comerica Park in terms of prices, field views and comfort which are good at both venues.  PNC gets the edge due to less obtrusive advertising and the back drop of the Allegheny River and Clemente Bridge.

I was pleasantly surprised at how many Tiger fans were in attendance - lots of Tigers caps and Cabrera and Verlander shirts and even an Andy Dirks shirt.  I saw no evidence of any animosity between Tigers and Pirates fans, just chants of "Let's Go Bucs" erupting any time Tigers fans tried to get a "Let's go Tigers clap clap clap clap clap" thing going.

You can't tell much from one game, but the fans seemed to be both enthusiastic and knowledgeable based on their reactions to the game.  They knew when to cheer and didn't go nuts thinking every fly ball would be a home run. That probably goes with the territory of a team which has had little recent success, but is on the verge of better things, maybe as early as this fall.  Once they've made the playoffs a few times, I could see things changing as more fans join the band wagon.

So, the long trip was worth it and PNC is a park I'd recommend to all fans.  I plan on making the journey again in the future.

WAR Baseline: It's All About Playing Time

One of the most confusing concepts for fans trying to learn sabermetrics is the replacement baseline used in the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) processes.  In simple terms, WAR is the wins a player contributed to his team's win total above what you would expect from a replacement level player - a theoretical player who could be acquired for league minimum salary.  An example of a replacement player would be a player in AAA, who is good enough to get some time in the majors, but is not regarded as a top prospect.   

Why is replacement used instead of average or zero?  When building a ball club, comparing players to league average can be problematic.  If a team is forced to replace a player due to an injury, he is not likely to be replaced by an average player or even a slightly below average player.  Average players are actually good players and are not generally available quickly or cheaply.   In most cases, the injured player will be replaced by a player who is substantially below average. 

Comparing players to zero is also not generally a great idea because your replacement is not likely to bat .000 for any length of time.  Your replacement will usually be somewhere between zero and average.  Based on examination of data over several years, analysts determine how good a player typically needs to be to get a decent amount of playing time.  The threshold above which a player must perform in order to get consistent at bats is called replacement level.  Different people use somewhat different replacement levels, but I'll follow the FanGraphs.com definition here.

If you are interested in playing general manager and are concerned about roster construction or how much money a player is worth, the replacement threshold is the way to go.  If you want to do something else such as selecting hall of famers or award winners or you just want to know how many players on your favorite team compare favorable to an average player, you can use an alternative baseline.

If you do decide to shun replacement level for something more intuitive though, you should understand the consequences.  It all comes down to how much credit you want to give for playing time.  Whether you choose Wins Above Average (WAA) or Wins Above Zero (WAO) or WAR can make a substantial difference when there is a lot of variation in playing time among players.

Suppose, Gary Great and Sammy Solid were both second basemen with exactly 600 Plate Appearances (PA).  They were both average base runners and average defenders and played in neutral parks.  The only difference was that Gary was a much better hitter than Sammy.  Gary had a .400 OBP, .540 slugging average and .398 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA).  Sammy had a .325 OBP, .450 slugging average and .335 wOBA. 

The question is how many wins was Gary worth compared to Sammy? 

We would normally have to do a lot of calculations involving base running, fielding and park effects in order to calculate Wins, but the question is simplified by assuming that the two players were similar in every way except batting.  Based on PA and wOBA, Gary had 40 Batting Runs which means than he contributed an estimated 40 runs above what would be expected from an average player in the same number of plate appearances.  Since 10 runs is worth approximately one win, he was 4 WAA.

Sammy had 10 Batting Runs or 1 WAA.  So, there was a a gap of three wins between the two players.  (Note that we should actually be adding a fraction of a win for playing second base, but they both get the same fraction so we'll ignore it for simplicity.)

What if we use zero as the baseline rather than average?  An average player is worth 68 runs over 600 PA, so Gary was 40 + 68 = 108 runs above zero (also called Runs Created) or 10.8 WA0.  Sammy had 78  Runs Created or 7.8 WA0.  Again, the the two players were separated by three wins.

Finally, a replacement player is worth 20 runs per 600 PA below an average player, so Gary was 40 + 20 Runs Above Replacement or 6 WAR.  Sammy was 30 Runs Above Replacement or 3 WAR. So, one more time there were three wins between the two batters.

Table 1 below clearly shows that there was a very big disparity in the number of wins a each player was credited in WAA, WA0 and WAR, but no difference in the number of wins separating the two players.  This is because they had the same number of plate appearances. 

Table 1: Two Players: Average in Every Way but Hitting

Measure	Gary Great	Sammy Solid	Difference
Plate Appereances	600	600	0
wOBA	.398	.335	.063
Runs Above Average	40	10	30
Wins Above Average	4	1	3
Runs Above Zero	108	78	30
Wins Above Zero	10.8	7.8	3
Runs Above Replacement	60	30	30
Wins Above Replacement	6	3	3

It's another story when players are far apart in their numbers of PA  Suppose Gary had a .398 wOBA in 300 PA while Sammy still had a .335 wOBA in 600 PA.  The results are summarized in Table 2 below.
In that case, Gary had 20 Batting Runs compared to 10 for Sammy.  That comes out to 2 WAA for Gary and 1 WAA for Sammy.  So Gary was one win better by that measure. 

Does this make sense? Is a great hitter who missed half the season worth more wins than an above average hitter in a full season?

Let's see what happens if we change the threshold.  An average player is worth 34 runs in 300 PA, so Gary was 20 + 34 = 54 Runs Above Zero.  Sammy was still 78 Runs Above Zero.  In terms of wins, Gary was 5.4 WA0 and Sammy 7.8 WA0.  In this case, Sammy was 2.4 Wins better than Gary.

Finally, if replacement is the baseline, Gary was 20 + 10 = 30 Runs Above Replacement or 3 WAR while Sammy was 10 + 20 = 30 Runs Above Replacement or 3 WAR.  So, they were considered equal contributors to wins by this metric. 

Table 2: Two Players: Average in Every Way but Hitting, Playing Time

Measure	Gary Great	Sammy Solid	Difference
Plate Appearances	300	600	-300
wOBA	.398	.335	.063
Runs Above Average	20	10	10
Wins Above Average	2	1	1
Runs Above Zero	54	78	-24
Wins Above Zero	5.4	7.8	-2.4
Runs Above Replacement	30	30	0
Wins Above Replacement	3	3	0

The lesson learned is that the baseline you choose can make a large difference in your evaluation of players.  In the first case, Gary was the better player.  In the second instance, Sammy was the better player by a substantial margin.  In the third situation, they were equals. You don't have to use replacement level if you don't want, but it's important to be aware how much the results vary among baselines.

Tigers Acquire Joakim Soria from Rangers for Prospects

The addition of Joakim Soria bolsters the Tigers bullpen

(Photo credit: Zimbio.com)

It was obvious to any fan watching the Tigers this year that they desperately needed help in the bullpen and they addressed the problem in a big way tonight by acquiring right-handed reliever Joakim Soria from the Texas Rangers (first reported by Kyle Bogie of Scout.com).  The Tigers had to give up two of the best pitching prospects in the system to get him - starter Jake Thompson and reliever Corey Knebel.  

Two years removed from Tommy John Surgery, the 30-year-old Soria is once again one of the best relievers in the game posting a 2.70 ERA and fantastic 42/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 33 1/3 innings so far this year.  He has not allowed a home run and leads all major league relievers with a 1.07 FIP.

I would guess that Soria will set up the struggling Joe Nathan initially, but could end up as the Tigers closer pretty quickly, maybe as quickly as Nathan's next blown save.  Soria will most likely be more than just two-month rental as the Tigers now hold a $7 million option for 2015 which they will almost surely pick up.

The hard-throwing Knebel, a supplemental first round pick in 2013, moved very quickly through the system making it to the majors for a couple of stints this year.  He was viewed as a potential future closer, but he was not ready to make any impact on Tigers this year.   Jake Thompson was a second round pick in 2012 and has impressed enough to make it to Double-A Erie at age 20.  

Both Knebel and Thompson were consensus top five prospects in the Tigers minor league system, so it was a steep price to pay, but Soria is one of the most dominant relievers in the business.  I approve of this trade.