Using RE24 To Account For Situational Hitting

Tigers designated hitter Victor Martinez is adding runs with situational hitting
(Photo Credit: Bruce Hemmelgarn, USA Today Sports)

Many fans grumble that statistics such as OPS and Batting Runs do not account for situational hitting.  For example, if Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera singles with a runners on second and third to drive home two runs, he gets the same credit as he would for a single with the bases empty.  Some will argue that this is not fair because he contributes more to his team in the former scenario than the latter.  In this post, I will re-introduce an under-utilized statistic which accounts for a hitter's performance in different circumstances. 

Traditional fans like to address situational hitting with the familiar Runs Batted In statistic, but that is a team dependent measure.  A player has more or less opportunity to drive in runs depending on who is batting in front of him.  Thus, a player gets acknowledged for driving home runs, but does not get penalized for failing to drive home runs.  So, the RBI count is not an adequate measure of situational hitting.

Other fans point to batting average with runners in scoring position, but that is based on a limited number of plate appearances.  It also doesn't consider the number of outs, the specific base runners (e.g. bases loaded versus second base only) or the type of hit (single, double, triple or home run).  Moreover, it ignores a player's performance when no runners are in scoring position.  

What we want is a statistic which gives a player credit for everything he does including situational hitting.  Batting Runs Above Average by the 24 Base/Out States (RE24) - found at FanGraphs - does just that.  The RE24 statistic is also sometimes referred to as "Value Added".  This metric will give a player credit for his singles, doubles, and all other events, and gives him extra credit for hits occurring with runners on base.  It even gives him points for a scenario which most other metrics ignore - moving a runner over with a ground out.  On the other hand, it subtracts extra points for hitting into double plays.

In past posts, I discussed just plain Batting Runs or Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA or RAA) which is an estimate of how many runs a player contributed to his team beyond what an average hitter would have contributed in his place.  The RE24 metric is similar to RAA except that it uses base/out states in the calculation.  An example of a base/out state is "runners at first and third and one out".  There are 24 possible base/out states and RE24 takes all of them into consideration. 

In the calculation of RAA, a double with the bases loaded and two outs counts the same (0.770 runs) as a double with the bases empty and no outs.  Conversely, RE24 counts the bases loaded double more than the bases empty double (2.544 versus 0.632) because it does more to increase the expected runs scored in the inning.

The RE24 metric for one at bat gives us the difference between run expectancy at the beginning and end of a play.  For example, suppose Cabrera bats with a runner on first and one out. In that situation, we would expect 0.556 runs to score by the end of the inning.  Assume that Cabrera then doubles, putting runners on second and third with one out. In that situation, we would expect 1.447 runs to score by the end of the inning. Therefore, Cabrera's double is worth 0.891 runs.

Summing RE24 over all of a batter’s plate appearances yields his season total RE24. For
example, Cabrera has a RE24 of 30.7 this year.  So, by that measure, he contributed about 31 runs above what an average batter would have been expected to contribute given the same opportunities. This is higher than his 27.7 RAA, which means that Cabrera has been especially good in situations with high run expectancy and has added more to his team’s runs total than RAA indicates.  We can estimate that he has contributed an extra 3 runs with his situational hitting.

Since situational hitting is largely (although not completely) random, RE24 is less predictive than RAA and should not generally be used as a measure of ability based on one year of data.  It does become more predictive over multiple years and may be a more representative measure of ability over a career than RAA. Regardless of what it says about talent though, it is a good alternative to RAA for looking at past performance. 

Table 1 below shows that Angels center fielder Mike Trout (46.7) and Blue Jays left fielder Melky Cabrera (37.5) rank first and second in RFE24.  Cabrera's RE24 is 12 runs higher than his RAA which tells us that he has been very good in situations with high run expectancy.  On the flip side, Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista has a differential of -10.8 (24.2 on RE24 versus 35.0 on RAA) suggesting that he does not do as well in spots where he has a greater chance to contribute runs.  

Table 1: AL RE24 Leaders as of August 21, 2014

Name	Team	RE24	RAA	RE24-RAA
Mike Trout	Angels	46.7	37.8	8.9
Melky Cabrera	Blue Jays	37.5	25.5	12.0
Victor Martinez	Tigers	34.5	31.4	3.1
Michael Brantley	Indians	33.6	29.2	4.4
Jose Abreu	White Sox	33.2	34.9	-1.7
Robinson Cano	Mariners	31.7	25.0	6.7
David Ortiz	Red Sox	31.4	22.9	8.5
Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	30.7	27.7	3.0
Adrian Beltre	Rangers	26.8	24.8	2.0
Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	24.2	35.0	-10.8
Josh Donaldson	Athletics	23.1	16.9	6.2
Edwin Encarnacion	Blue Jays	21.6	28.6	-7.0
Kyle Seager	Mariners	21.0	18.4	2.6
Alex Gordon	Royals	20.6	17.6	3.0
Brandon Moss	Athletics	19.5	15.5	4.0
Conor Gillaspie	White Sox	17.9	12.9	5.0
Adam Eaton	White Sox	17.3	10.7	6.6
Lonnie Chisenhall	Indians	16.7	12.9	3.8
David Murphy	Indians	16.2	1.0	15.2
Jacoby Ellsbury	Yankees	14.7	6.2	8.5

Data source: FanGraphs.com

Table 2 shows that designated hitter Victor Martinez (34.5), Miguel Cabrera (30.7) and outfielder J.D. Martinez (15.5) are the only Tigers regulars with above average numbers for RE24.  Using RAA, all of the regulars other than the shortstops are above average.  

Additionaly, Victor Martinez (3.1) and Cabrera (+3.0) are the only hitters with positive RE24-RAA differentials.  So, most of the Tigers are not doing so well in plate appearances where there is high run expectancy.  Most notably, catcher Alex Avila has a differential of -9.5 and right fielder Hunter -9.1.

Table 1: RE24 for Tigers as of August 21, 2014

Name	RE24	RAA	RE24-RAA
Victor Martinez	34.5	31.4	3.1
Miguel Cabrera	30.7	27.7	3.0
J.D. Martinez	15.5	19.1	-3.6
Rajai Davis	-1.4	4.2	-5.6
Ian Kinsler	-1.9	4.4	-6.3
Austin Jackson	-2.3	3.6	-5.9
Eugenio Suarez	-3.1	-0.9	-2.2
Torii Hunter	-3.2	5.9	-9.1
Nick Castellanos	-3.6	0.8	-4.4
Alex Avila	-7.8	1.7	-9.5
Andrew Romine	-17.6	-10.2	-7.4

Data source: FanGraphs.com

Is The Tigers Offense Inconsistent?

How consistent has the Tigers offense been this year?
(Photo credit: Steve Mitchell, USA Today Sports)

Throughout the year, Tigers fans have expressed a good deal of frustration with the Tigers offense.  If you look at the raw statistics, the Tigers lead the American League with a .754 OPS and are third with 4.6 runs per game.  So, what's the problem?  The claim is that the Tigers offense is "inconsistent".  I'm going to investigate that theory here.

One definition of inconsistent is that they mix good hitting months with poor hitting months.  Table 1 below shows that their offensive output was very similar from April through July scoring 4.5 runs per game in April, 4.7 in May, 4.7 in June and 4.8 in July.  They also ranked between second and fourth in the AL each month. The outlier is August where they have scored only 3.8 runs per game, good for only ninth in the league.  So, it's been a bad month so far, but they were pretty consistent the first four months.

Table 1: Tigers Runs Per Game By Month

Month	RPG	Rank
April	4.5	4
May	4.7	4
June	4.7	4
July	4.8	2
August	3.8	9

Data Source: BaseballProspectus.com

Another thought is that the Tigers have a good season average runs per game, but they have a disproportionate number of games where the offense goes completely flat.  As shown in Table 2 below, the average MLB team has scored either 0 or 1 runs in 19% of their games which is probably more than you thought.  The Tigers have been held to 0-1 runs only 15% of the time, so they have been shut down less than the average team.  Additionally, the Tigers have scored just 2-3 runs in 26% games compared to the MLB average of 29%.

The Tigers score more runs than an average team though, so it makes sense to compare them to the best hitting teams.  The run distributions for the eight highest scoring teams is included in Table 2.  Only the Angels have had fewer games of 0-1 runs (8%) with all the other teams falling between 15%-17%.  Moreover, only two teams - the Brewers (24%) and Blue Jays (25%) - have had fewer games of 2-3 runs.  Overall, the Tigers run distribution looks quite typical for a good hitting team.

Table 2: Distribution of Runs Per Game

Team	RPG	0-1	2-3	4-5	6+
MLB Avg	4.1	19%	29%	25%	27%
Oakland	4.8	15%	28%	22%	35%
Los Angeles (AL)	4.7	8%	32%	26%	33%
Colorado	4.7	17%	30%	18%	34%
Detroit	4.6	15%	26%	26%	33%
Toronto	4.5	17%	25%	25%	33%
Cleveland	4.3	16%	31%	24%	29%
Milwaukee	4.3	17%	24%	30%	30%
Baltimore	4.3	15%	32%	22%	32%

Data Source: BaseballProspectus.com

Based on the data above, it seems that the Tigers offense have been pretty consistent this season relative to other teams.  They are having a bad month though and that needs to be turned around quickly.

Tigers Defense Is As Bad As It Looks

Tigers Third baseman Nick Castellanos is one of many who has contributed to poor team defense
(Photo source: Oakland Press)

Much has been made of the Tigers abysmal bullpen and for good reason, but that is not the only problem facing a team which now chases a division title which many assumed belonged to them.  Their offense has struggled in the second half and the pitching injuries have recently begun to pile up, but one theme that has stayed true all year as it has for the past few years is poor team defense.   

If you've watched a lot of games, you may have guessed that the Tigers have one of the worst fielding teams in baseball and the numbers back it up.  One of the simplest measures is Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER) introduced by Bill James in the 1978 Baseball Abstract.  It is the percent of batted balls, not including home runs, which are converted into outs by a team's fielders.  The Tigers DER of .677 ranks 27th in MLB.

A more advanced measure is Total Zone (RTOT on Baseball-Reference.com) created by analyst Sean Smith from Retrosheet.org play-by-play data. Total Zone considers the following items: plays made, errors, which fielder makes each out, balled ball type, which fielder fielded each hit, handedness of pitcher and batter and park adjustments.  Plays made above average are calculated and converted into runs using situational run expectancies. The Tigers rank  last in the majors with an estimated 60 runs below average.

Even more complex, although not necessarily more accurate than Total Zone, is the Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) statistic developed by John Dewan, owner of Baseball Information Solutions.  The DRS system breaks the field into small areas and determines the probabilities of players making plays in each area based on location, speed (hard, medium, soft) and batted ball type (ground ball, fly ball, line drive, bunt).

These probabilities determine how many outs each player was expected to make and how many he actually did make in comparison to the average player. At the end, plays made above or below average is converted to runs saved/cost.  According to DRS, the Tigers defense has cost them 42 runs this year which places them 28th in baseball.

Table 1 below shows that the Tigers rank very similarly on all three measures - DER, Total Zone, DRS - in both 2013 and 2014.  This tells us that their attempt to improve defense this year has not worked out too well.

Table 1: Tigers Team Defense: 2013 versus 2014

	2013		2014
Statistic	Number	Rank	Number	Rank
DER	.682	26	.677	27
Total Zone	-57	28	-60	30
DRS	-64	28	-42	28

Data Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Total Zone and DRS can also be broken down at the individual level, although the player numbers tend to be less reliable than team numbers.  Table 2 shows how many runs individual fielders have saved/cost the Tigers based on these measures.  Both systems agree that second baseman Ian Kinsler (+10 on Total Zone, +15 on DRS) and catcher Alex Avila (+8 and +5) have been positive contributors defensively.

Most other Tigers are below average on these measures, the only exception being first baseman Miguel Cabrera who is +7 on Total Zone, but -1 on DRS.  Both systems say that third baseman Nick Castellanos (-17 and -23) and right fielder Torii Hunter (-13 and -15) have been awful defensively and you won't get many arguments from observers.  Outfielders Austin Jackson (-23) and Rajai Davis (-15) both do very poorly or Total Zone, but not quite as bad on DRS.

Table 2: Defensive Numbers for Individual Tigers in 2014

Player	Total Zone	DRS
Kinsler	+10	+15
Avila	+8	+5
Romine	-2	0
Cabrera	+7	-1
Davis	-15	-1
J. Martinez	-4	-1
Jackson	-23	-3
Suarez	-1	-4
Hunter	-13	-15
Castellanos	-17	-23

  Data Source: Baseball-Reference.com

So, if your eyes have been telling you that the Tigers defense has been terrible, they have not deceived you. It's not likely to get any better this year and will probably be an area of concern once again this off-season.  

The PNC Park Experience

PNC Park - August 12, 2014

I spent the last few days in Pittsburgh where I visited PNC Park for the first time.  It was a 10-hour road trip, so I was hoping it would be worth the trouble.  The drive itself actually wasn't too bad.  For someone who is conditioned to the crazy Boston-area traffic, driving west is always a relief.  The lack of traffic made the huge state of Pennsylvania seem small relative to tiny Massachusetts and Connecticut.

The city of Pittsburgh (named the city of bridges for good reason!) was nice, better than expected.  Despite living in congested eastern Massachusetts and having worked in Boston for eleven years, I prefer smaller towns and sometimes find large cities to be intimidating.  Pittsburgh felt comfortable though - not crowded or noisy, not a lot of obvious poverty; yet definitely not yuppy and artificial either.

Much like Boston, Pittsburgh is good for walking.  Most things you'd want to see were within reasonable walking distance of each other.  As a bonus, I spent several hours exploring Pittsburgh's extensive system of bike paths mostly along the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers.

Along with thousands of other fans, I approached PNC Park via the Roberto Clemente Bridge which is closed to traffic immediately before and after games.  It's quite a sight seeing masses of fans cross the bridge with no automobiles in sight, especially after the game with everyone leaving the park and crossing at the same time.  It's not quite like the Verrazzano Narrows Bridge during the New York marathon, but still impressive.

The only negative thing I'm going to write about here is ballpark security, but that's something that is getting bad at all parks.  It felt almost like going through an airport - pockets emptied and arms up.  At least they didn't make us take off our shoes.  It wasn't awful but it slows things down unnecessarily and makes a fun event seem briefly intimidating.  I don't think it makes us any safer either.  I'm not quite sure why Americans have allowed security to reach this point with so little complaint...At least we were rewarded with a Honus Wagner bobble head.

I got great seats on the first base side for about half the price I would pay at Fenway  Park.  I entered the park through the wrong gate and had to walk a long way before I reached my seat but that gave me a chance to view a lot of different areas and it seemed like the view of the field would be good from any section.

PNC Park was quite similar to Comerica Park in terms of prices, field views and comfort which are good at both venues.  PNC gets the edge due to less obtrusive advertising and the back drop of the Allegheny River and Clemente Bridge.

I was pleasantly surprised at how many Tiger fans were in attendance - lots of Tigers caps and Cabrera and Verlander shirts and even an Andy Dirks shirt.  I saw no evidence of any animosity between Tigers and Pirates fans, just chants of "Let's Go Bucs" erupting any time Tigers fans tried to get a "Let's go Tigers clap clap clap clap clap" thing going.

You can't tell much from one game, but the fans seemed to be both enthusiastic and knowledgeable based on their reactions to the game.  They knew when to cheer and didn't go nuts thinking every fly ball would be a home run. That probably goes with the territory of a team which has had little recent success, but is on the verge of better things, maybe as early as this fall.  Once they've made the playoffs a few times, I could see things changing as more fans join the band wagon.

So, the long trip was worth it and PNC is a park I'd recommend to all fans.  I plan on making the journey again in the future.