Newhouser Saved the Tigers Lots of Runs in 1945-1946

In an earlier post, the ERA+ statistic was used to rank the top seasons for starters in the history of the Tigers.  We saw that right-hander Ed Siever's 197 ERA+ in 1902 was the highest ever for a Tigers starter.  However, he only pitched 188 innings that year and many other pitchers with high ERA+ marks had much heavier workloads.  In another recent post, it was shown that the Pitching Runs (PitchR) metric can be used to give a pitcher credit for quality and quantity of innings.  Using that metric gives us a different perspective of the best pitching seasons ever.

Table 1 below lists the top 15 single seasons for Tigers pitchers by Pitching Runs.  The first thing you might notice is that Sieiver falls out of the top 15.  In fact, his 1902 season drops all the way to 26th according to Pitching Runs.  The new leader is the great Hal Newhouser with 58 Pitching Runs in 1945.  Prince Hal's 53 Pitching Runs in 1946 ranks number two.  Given that major league rosters were depleted by World War II, his 1946 season is probably more impressive.

Table 1 - Tigers All-Time Single-Season Pitching Runs Leaders

Player	Year	IP	ERA	ERA+	PtchR
Hal Newhouser	1945	313	1.81	195	58
Hal Newhouser	1946	292	1.94	190	53
Dizzy Trout	1944	352	2.12	167	52
Justin Verlander	2011	251	2.40	170	47
Bobo Newsom	1940	264	2.83	168	46
Hal Newhouser	1944	312	2.22	159	43
Virgil Trucks	1949	275	2.81	148	43
Tommy Bridges	1936	294	3.60	137	42
Bobo Newsom	1939	246	3.37	146	42
Dizzy Trout	1946	276	2.34	157	39
Justin Thompson	1997	223	3.02	152	38
Denny McLain	1968	336	1.96	154	38
Art Houtteman	1950	274	3.54	132	38
Denny McLain	1969	325	2.80	135	38
Hal Newhouser	1948	272	3.01	145	37

Data source: Baseball-Reference.com

Newhouser's 1944 and 1948 seasons also make the cut giving him four of the top 15 seasons. Others appearing more than once on the list are Dizzy Trout in 1944 and 1946, Bobo Newsom in 1939 and 1940 and Denny McLain in 1968 and 1969.

Justin Verlander's 47 Pitching Runs in 2011 ranks fourth all-time.  If you want to exclude the World War II seasons, then it would rank as the second best season ever.

Pitchers and Catchers Report

Tigers ace Justin Verlander is at the center of attention as pitchers and catchers officially reported for spring training in Lakeland, FL this morning (Photo credit: Roger Dewitt)

The Tigers pitchers and catchers officially reported for spring training in Lakeland, FL this morning  That's really just a formality though as many of them have already been down there for a while.  The full squad officially reports on February 23

 Unless you are down in Lakeland watching the activities at Joker Marchant Stadium, a trip which I highly recommend, this announcement probably doesn't affect you too much.  It is, however, an annual harbinger of Spring telling us that baseball and warm weather are not too far away.  It's been a remarkably mild and snow-less winter here in Massachusetts and many other parts of the northeast and midwest, but that doesn't make us look forward to the season any less.

For the next two weeks, all players will be in the best shapes of their lives, young pitchers will be learning new pitches and Brandon Inge will have a new swing which will turn his career around.  There will be a new attitude this spring, a feeling of confidence that has not been seen in years.  Manager Jim Leyland will tell us that this is the best group of players he's ever been around.

The actual games do not happen until March with the the opener on the second of the month versus Florida Southern College.  The Tigers then face the Braves on March 3.

Verlander is Fourth Among Tigers All-Time Pitching Runs Leaders

In an earlier post, it was noted that ERA+ is a reasonable metric for measuring the quality of a pitcher's innings, but it does not address quantity.  For example, former Detroit hurlers Mickey Lolich and Dan Petry each had a Tigers career ERA+ of 105.  However, Lolich pitched almost twice as innings (3,361 versus 1,843) and ERA+ does not give him credit for his heavier workload.

The Pitching Runs statistic, introduced by Pete Palmer in The Hidden Game of Baseball in 1984, was designed to account for both the quality and quantity of a pitcher's work.  It tells us the number of runs saved or lost by a pitcher compared to league average.  It is based on a pitcher's innings pitched (IP), earned runs (ER) and the league average ERA (Lg ERA):

Pitching Runs = IP x Lg ERA/9 - ER

For example, Tigers current ace Justin Verlander had a 2.40 ERA in 251 IP in 2011.  Based on the league average ERA of 4.08, we can estimate that an average pitcher would have allowed 4.08 x 251/9 = 114 ER in 251 IP.  Verlander allowed 67 ER, so he had 114 - 67= 47 Pitching Runs.  Therefore, he saved the Tigers an estimated 47 runs compared to the average pitcher in the same number of innings. 

The calculation above is the basis of the Adjusted Pitching Runs (PtchR) measure found on Baseball-Reference.  Baseball-Reference makes adjustments for a pitcher's home park and pitcher/team earned run to run ratio.  Thus, a pitcher pitching in an offense-oriented park would have his Pitching Runs adjusted slightly upwards, whereas a pitcher pitching in a pitcher-friendly park would have his Pitching Runs lowered a little.  A pitcher, who allows more/fewer earned runs than his team ratio of earned runs to runs would suggest, also gets his Pitching Runs tweaked up/down.

The career Pitching Runs leader board for Tigers starters is shown in Table 1 below.  The top of the list looks similar to the ERA+ chart, but there is more spread due to innings pitched.  Prince Hal Newhouser edges out Tommy Bridges 277 to 275 and Dizzy Trout is a distant third at 204.  Verlander is still fourth as he was on ERA+, but it will take him a few seasons to catch the leaders.

Table 1: Tigers All-Time Pitching Runs Leaders, 1901-2011

Player	From	To	IP	ERA	ERA+	PtchR
Hal Newhouser	1939	1953	2,944	3.07	130	277
Tommy Bridges	1930	1946	2,826	3.57	126	275
Dizzy Trout	1939	1952	2,591	3.20	125	204
Justin Verlander	2005	2011	1,315	3.54	124	127
Frank Lary	1954	1964	2,008	3.46	116	114
Jack Morris	1977	1990	3,042	3.73	108	113
Jim Bunning	1955	1963	1,867	3.45	116	113
Schoolboy Rowe	1933	1942	1,445	4.01	114	99
Virgil Trucks	1941	1956	1,800	3.50	114	98
Bobo Newsom	1939	1941	760	3.59	132	90
Fred Hutchinson	1939	1953	1,464	3.73	113	83
Mickey Lolich	1963	1975	3,361	3.45	105	80
Dave Rozema	1977	1984	1,007	3.38	120	69
Bill Donovan	1903	1918	2,137	2.49	109	67
Denny McLain	1963	1970	1,593	3.13	110	66

 Data source: Baseball-Reference.com

Jack Morris was only 13th on the ERA+ list, but his 3,042 innings propels him to 6th in Pitching Runs.  Similarly, Lolich rises from 15th to 12th.  Other pitchers such as Ed Killian and Dan Petry made the ERA+ top 15 but do not appear on this list due to lighter workloads.

There was one pitcher with only 760 innings who did make the Pitching Runs cut.  That was the eccentric Bobo Newsom who pitched for the Tigers from 1939-1941 and was one of the stars of the 1940 pennant winner.  His 132 ERA+ would have topped the ERA+ list if he had enough innings to qualify.  The well-traveled right hander pitched for nine major league teams, but had his best years for the Tigers.