Dallas Keuchel Tops AL Run Prevention Leaders

Astros ace Dallas Keuchel is a strong Cy Young candidate
(Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today Sports)

With the regular season now in the distant past, I'll present the final installment of the American League run prevention leaders.   

There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in baseball, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  There are several different ways to do this:   

• Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 

• Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated runs allowed by fielders. 

• Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.

• FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.

These measures are discussed in more detail in an earlier post.  After computing them, you can aggregate them using weights depending on which measures you trust the most.  Here, they are calculated using a simple average.

The 2015 American League leaders are listed in Table 1 below.  Astros southpaw Dallas Keuchel finished first in Pitching Runs (43), Adjusted Pitching Runs (42) and Base Runs (41) and third in FIP Runs (36).  That gave him a league-leading 40 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher. David Price of the Tigers and Blue Jays was second with 34 runs prevented and Athletics ace Sonny Gray was a distant third at 26.

Beyond Price who accumulated 18 runs prevented with Detroit, the leading Tiger was Justin Verlander with 11 in 133.1 innings.  As you probably guessed, the rest of the staff did not do so well as no other starter finished above average.  Moreover, of 18 pitchers who cost their teams at least 10 runs, four - Shane Greene (20), Alfredo Simon (19), Buck Farmer (-14) and Anibal Sanchez (-10) - pitched exclusively for the Tigers and one other - Matt Boyd (-19) - pitched mostly for the Tigers.  

Table 1: 2015 American League Run Prevention Leaders

Pitcher	Team	IP	Pitching Runs	Adjusted Pitching Runs	Base Runs	FIP Runs	Average
Dallas Keuchel*	HOU	232	43	42	41	36	40
David Price*	***	220.1	35	36	28	38	34
Sonny Gray	OAK	208	28	27	33	17	26
Chris Sale*	CHW	208.2	11	16	21	37	21
Chris Archer	TBR	212	16	13	26	30	21
Corey Kluber	CLE	222	14	13	26	33	21
Carlos Carrasco	CLE	183.2	12	12	20	30	18
Jose Quintana*	CHW	206.1	17	23	5	27	18
Marco Estrada	TOR	181	19	19	20	-0	14
Adam Warren	NYY	131.1	12	15	15	11	13
Felix Hernandez	SEA	201.2	16	14	14	7	13
Jake Odorizzi	TBR	169.1	16	13	9	10	12
Justin Verlander	DET	133.1	7	9	16	12	11
Danny Salazar	CLE	185	9	8	13	14	11
Collin McHugh	HOU	203.2	8	7	7	16	9
Masahiro Tanaka	NYY	154	7	11	11	6	9
Yovani Gallardo	TEX	184.1	12	17	-3	11	9
Scott Kazmir*	***	182.3	10	9	11	5	9
Wei-Yin Chen*	BAL	191.1	13	17	-3	5	8
Edinson Volquez	KCR	200.1	6	5	9	11	8
Erasmo Ramirez	TBR	163.1	5	2	16	7	7
Kyle Gibson	MIN	194.2	5	8	8	8	7
Garrett Richards	LAA	207.1	5	-1	16	5	6

Data source: Baseball-Rerence.com

Where Does Cabrera's Season Rank In Tigers History?

When Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera missed 35 games with a calf injury between July 3 and August 14, he lost any chance to accumulate his usual gaudy counting statistics.  As of today, he has just 17 home runs, 68 RBI and 206 total bases and will not end up in the league leaders in Batting Runs or Runs Created or any other cumulative batting measure.  However, he is hitting as well as he ever has and is currently leading the American League in batting average (.357), on-base percentage (.456) and OPS (1.035).

Cabrera's season also ranks very high in Tigers history.  According to the Baseball-Reference Play Index, the big first baseman has the third highest Tigers Batting Average since the 1930s behind Magglio Ordonex (.363 in 2007) and Norm Cash (.361 in 1961).  Additionally, his .456 OBP is the highest since Hall-of-Fame second baseman Charlie Gehringer reached base at a .458 clip in 1937.   

Adjusting Cabrera's OPS for ballpark and league average, we can say that he has an OPS+ of 185. Loosely interpreted that says that he has hit about 85% better than a league average hitter this year. Table 1 below shows that his season ranks 10th all time among Tigers.    

Table 1: Tigers Top OPS+ Seasons

Player	Year	PA	OPS	OPS+
Ty Cobb	1917	672	1.014	209
Ty Cobb	1910	590	1.008	206
Norm Cash	1961	673	1.148	201
Ty Cobb	1912	609	1.040	200
Ty Cobb	1913	501	1.002	196
Ty Cobb	1911	654	1.088	196
Harry Heilmann	1923	627	1.113	194
Ty Cobb	1909	651	.947	193
Miguel Cabrera	2013	652	1.078	190
Miguel Cabrera	2015	423	1.035	186
Ty Cobb	1915	701	.973	185
Harry Heilmann	1927	596	1.091	180
Miguel Cabrera	2011	688	1.033	179
Ty Cobb	1916	637	.944	179
Miguel Cabrera	2010	648	1.042	178
Al Kaline	1967	550	.952	176

Data source: Baseball-Reference.com

As expected eight of the seasons in the table belong to the legendary Ty Cobb, but  the name Miguel Cabrera now appears more than any other Tiger with four of the top 15 seasons.  So, while Cabrera might not be getting as much recognition as he got in pat years, the beat goes on for one of the two greatest hitters in team history.