Sunday, April 08, 2007

The ...

The Erie Sea Wolves were supposed to open up on Thursday but have yet to play due to inclement weather. Once they do get started, fans will see a roster stocked with pretty good prospects. The SeaWolves do not have any young phenoms like Cameron Maybin or Andrew Miller (at least not on the opening roster) but 10 of the top 30 Tigers prospects according to Baseball America will start off in Erie this year. Plus, Maybin and Miller are expected to join the team at some point so it should be a good year for prospect watching in Erie. Some of the top prospects are listed below:

Jair Jurrgens is unheralded but has moved quickly through the system and pitched solidly for 12 starts with Erie at age 20 last year. He had a 2.68 ERA and 112/31 strikeout/walk ratio in 141 innings for Lakeland and Erie combined. He has developed into the Tigers second best pitching prospect behind Miller. He throws in the low 90s and has reached the mid 90s with his fastball. He also has a decent change-up and curve and has very good control. I would expect him to reach AAA Toledo fairly quickly.

Jeff Larish is a 24 year old left-handed power hitting first baseman who batted .258/.379/.460 for Lakeland last year. There is little question about his power and he has the patience to draw a lot of walks. He also is good defensively. The only question is whether he'll make enough contact at the upper levels. If he has a good year in AA this year, he'll become a very interesting prospect for an organization which needs a power hitting first baseman.

Eulogio De La Cruz is a hard throwing 23 year old right-hander whose big attraction is a fastball which has reached 100 MPH on occasion. He also has a sharp curve which can be very tough. He is still very raw however and his command and control do not match his stuff at this point. He has spent most of his time in the bullpen but pitched better as a starter last year. So, he'll be a starter this year but his ultimate role is still up in the air.

Dallas Trahern is a 21 year old right-hander with an excellent slider and an uncanny ability to induce ground balls (a 3.3 GB/FB ration for Lakeland last year). He also showed good control walking just 41 batters in 145 innings. The problem is a very low strikeout rate - just 4.8 K per 9 innings in his career. The results have been a 3.18 career ERA but it remains to be seen if he can continue to get away with such a low K Rate at higher levels. By all accounts he has outstanding make-up which should allow him to make the most of his ability.

Other prospects to watch in Erie this year include pitchers P.J. Finigan and Kyle Sleeth, second baseman Mike Hollimon, third baseman Kody Kirkland and outfielders Matt Joyce and Clete Thomas. The complete roster is listed below. More roster details can be found at the Sea Wolves official site. For more news and discussion of the Sea Wolves, check out motownsports.com and Mike Cassidy's Tigers Minor League Blog.

Erie Sea Wolves Opening Day Roster

Pitchers
Jair Jurrjens
Eulogio De La Cruz
Dallas Trahern
Eddie Bonine
Jon Connolly
P.J. Finigan
Jeremy Johnson
Ian Ostlund
Danny Zell
Kyle Sleeth
Kevin Ardoin
Andrew Kown

Catchers
Steve Torrealba
Joel Roa

Infielders
1B Jeff Larish
2B Mike Hollimon
SS Brent Dlugach
3B Kody Kirkland
UT Nick McIntyre
UT Adam Haley

Outfielders
Matt Joyce
Clete Thomas
Jackson Melian
Andres Torres

Toledo Mud Hens Preview

The Toledo Mud Hens have started off the season with two losses to Louisville - 5 to 4 on Thursday and 8-2 last night. In last night's game, Virgil Vazquez had 8 strikeouts in 3 2/3 innings but also allowed 4 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks. The Mudhens had only 3 hits, one of them by Chris Shelton who also walked. Shelton is 2 for 8 to start the season.

Two of the better prospects to watch at Toledo this year are outfielder Brent Clevlen and pitcher Jordan Tata. The 23 year old Clevlen appeared in 31 games for the Tigers in 2006 and batted .282 with 3 home runs and 6 extra base hits in 39 at bats. However, he did most of that in his first week up and was less successful playing for Erie where he batted .230 with 138 strikeouts in 395 at bats. Clevlen has good fielding skills and can play center field but he is more of a corner outfielder. Offensively, he has good power and can draw walks but he strikes out too much and didn't make enough contact last year. he is still a good prospect but he needs to regain the stroke he had in Lakeland in 2005 where he batted .302/.387/.484.

Tata also appeared briefly for the Tigers last year but spent most of the year in Toledo where he compliled a 3.84 ERA in 122 innings. Although he is now 25 years old, last year was his first year above A ball so needs more work at AAA. He has a fastball with good movement and a good knuckle curve but needs to work on his change-up. He may end up as a reliever but the Tigers still see him as a starter.

Other players to watch at Toledo this year include first baseman Chris Shelton and pitchers Zach Miner and Virgil Vasquez. The complete roster is listed below. More roster details can be found at the Mud Hens official site. For more news and discussion of the Mud Hens, check out motownsports.com and Mike Cassidy's Tigers Minor League Blog.


Toledo Mud Hens Opening Day Roster

Pitchers
Jordan Tata
Virgil Vasquez
Zach Miner
Dennis Tankersley
Yorman Bazardo
Preston Larrison
Aquilino Lopez
Jason Karnuth
Ron Chiavacci
Tim Brydak
Vic Darensbourg
Craig Dingman (DL)
Joey Eischlen (DL)

Catchers
Dane Sardinha
Andrew Graham

Infielders
1B Chris Shelton
2B Kevin Hooper
SS Ramon Santiago
3B Mike Hessman
UT Jack Hannahan
UT Chris Maples

Outfielders
David Espinosa
Brent Clevlen
Timo Perez
Ryan Raburn

Ducksnorts Review

I recently received a copy of the Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual. It is a book about the Padres and has little to do with the Tigers but I wanted to bring it to your attention anyway. The author is Geoff Young who is one of the first people I met in the virtual world of the internet. This was back in the mid 1990s on the AOL messageboards and he was actually blogging back then (although it was not called blogging). He is one of the best baseball blog writers and you can see more of his work on Ducksnorts (a Padres blog) and Knuckle Curve (a baseball blog).

The Ducksnorts Annual recaps the Padres 2006 season in detail, includes pieces about the history of the Padres among other things. It also includes some articles on team building which are of general baseball interest. Geoff is an excellent writer who does a great job of incorporating both sabermetrics and baseball observation into his book. I found it to be a very good read even though I'm not a Padre fan. I bought the paper version but it can also be bought as a download.

Friday, April 06, 2007

More Sloppy Play in Loss to Royals

The Tigers were happy to leave cold, grey and windy Michigan and hoped for slightly milder weather in Missouri. Instead, they were greeted in Kansas City by more cold, more wind and a chill factor in the mid 20s. Players were visibly uncomfortable and many wore hoods to fight off the miserable conditions. Magglio Ordonez went so far as to wear a ski mask in right field. The result was another rather sloppy game and a 3-1 loss to the Royals.

The Royals took a 1-0 lead in the first against Justin Verlander when Ordonez turned a probable single off the bat of David DeJesus into three bases. DeJesus then scored on a grounder by Mark Grudielanek. It sure has been an adventurous week for Ordonez and some of the other Tiger defenders.

Verlander allowed no more runs and left after 6 innings with the score tied 1-1. He was uncharacteristically wild allowing 5 walks in the 4th and 5th innings. Fortunately, he pitched his way out of jams just as he did through most of last season.

Jose Mesa did not impress in his Tigers debut allowing hits to the first three batters he faced in the 7th inning. He was not helped by Craig Monroe who misjudged a wind blown fly ball which dropped in front of him for a single plating the second run of the inning. Wil Ledezma took over and pitched a strong 1 2/3 innings allowing just a walk.

The Tigers were held to just 5 hits by Jorge de la Rosa, Joakim Soria and David Riske. They scored their only run in the second when Carlos Guillen and Sean Casey walked, Guillen stole third and Monroe hit a sacrifice fly. Tigers fans were expecting a little more off the Royals staff but it was not the Tigers night.

More disappointing than the offense though was the sloppy defense. When the Tigers were playing good ball last year, defense was usually an important part of it. It's only been three games but so far their team fielding has not been too sharp. Even the usual stellar Pudge Rodriguez has already allowed three steals, failed to block an errant pitch and did not attempt to double off a stranded runner after a pop out. Inge has had problems throwing the ball but has been helped out by Casey on a few occasions.

Billfer also commented on the fielding problems earlier. I'm not concerned yet though. It's still very early and I'm hoping they'll get it back together when the conditions improve which should be soon.

Mike Maroth will face Gil Meche tomorrow at 2:10 in game two of the series. The forecast is 42 degrees and sunny. That's not ideal but it's an improvement over the last couple of games.

West Michigan Whitecaps Preview

The West Michigan Whitecaps opened their season with a 3-2 loss to Dayton last night. Chris Cody pitched shutout ball for 5 innings allowing 6 hits and 2 walks and striking out 5 for the Whitecaps. Ryan Strieby hit a solo home run and Deik Scram had two hits in the losing effort.

Two of the most interesting Whitecaps this year are Gorkys Hernandez and Scott Sizemeore. The 19 year old Hernandez had an eye opening debut batting .327/.356/.463 in 205 at bats for the GCL Tigers last year. Hernandez is very raw and has a long way to go before we start talking about the majors but he probably has the biggest upside of any Tiger prospect other than Cameron Maybin. He is very fast, runs the bases well and covers a lot of ground in center field. He also has the potential to develop some decent power. Like most 19 year olds, he needs to work on his plate discipline.

Sizemore batted .327/.394/.435 as a shortstop for Oneonta last year. He is playing second base for the Whitecaps this season and that will likely be his permanent position. He has good contact and on base skills and hits for some gap power. He projects as a good offensive middle infielder with the question being his defense. By most accounts, he has only average defensive tools but played fairly well at shortstop last year.

Some of the other players to watch at West Michigan this year are outfielder Brennan Boesch, first baseman Ryan Strieby and pitcher Jonah Nickerson. The complete roster has been extracted from an article by Brian Vanochten of the Grand Rapids press and is listed below. For more news and discussion of the Flying Tigers check out motownsports.com and Mike Cassidy's Tigers Minor League Blog.


Starting Line-up

LF Deik Scram
2B Scott Sizemore
RF Brennan Boesch
1B Ryan Strieby
DH Michael Bertram
3B Santo De Leon
C James Skelton
CF Gorkys Hernandez
SS Audy Ciriaco

Bench
C Jeff Kunkel
OF Jeramy Laster
INF Louis Ott
OF Brandon Timm

Starting pitchers
LHP Chris Cody
RHP Lauren Gagnier
LHP Duane Below
RHP Angel Castro
RHP Jonah Nickerson

Bullpen
RHP Randor Bierd
LHP Ed Clelland
RHP Casey Fien
RHP Jeff Gerbe
RHP Brett Jensen
RHP Phil Napolitan
RHP Josh Rainwater

Friday, December 15, 2006

fielding

In my analysis of team run prevention, I found that the Tigers ranked 1st in the American League in ERA but only 3rd in FIP ERA. This is an indication that their pitching may not have been as good as their ERA. Their league leading DER suggested that their pitching might have been significantly aided by strong fielding.

However, DER does not take into consideration things such as: location of ball, how hard the ball is hit (soft, medium, hard), type of ball hit (e.g. ground ball, fly ball, line drive), handedness of batter and pitcher and ballpark. The PMR system developed by David Pinto takes all those things into consideration in determining how many outs should have been made versus how many were actually made. The results for all Major League teams in 2006 are shown in Table 1 below.

The team RMR table provides further evidence of the Tigers fielding excellence. We can see that the Tigers were 2nd in the American League and 3rd in the Majors in converting balls in play into outs. There were 4,439 balls in play for Tiger fielders in 2006. Based on the batted ball data and associated probabilities, they should have made 3,069 plays. They actually made 3,112 plays so according to PMR they made 43 more plays than expected (the diff column). The last column of the table (Ratio) is actual outs divided by predicted outs. Since an extra out is worth .8 runs per play on average, the Tigers fielders saved approximately 43*.8 = 34 more runs than an average team. Theoretically, this comes out to about 4 wins.

In the 2007 Hardball Times Baseball Annual (a book I recommend to anyone who is interested in current sabermetric research), there is an article on team fielding written by John Dewan. In his article, he disscusses the Plus/Minus System which was described in last year’s Fielding Bible. Like PMR, the Plus/Minus system is based on analysis of detailed play by play data collected by Baseball Info Solutions video scouts. The Plus/Minus system does not rate the Tigers quite as high as DER and PMR but it still ranks them well. It has them 10th in the Majors and 3rd in the AL behind the blue Jays and Mariners.

The Tigers had a team score of +26 which means they made 26 more plays than the average team would have made. Dewan also broke it down by position: +15 for Tiger middle infielders, +31 for corner infielders and -20 for outfielders. The +46 total for the infield was 2nd in baseball to the Astros. Their outfield ranked 22nd. This supports what many of us observed – that the Tiger infielders were better than their outfielders defensively.

How did their individual fielders rank? That’s more complicated but I’ll get into in more detail once I’m done gathering and analyzing data which is currently being made available. I should have several posts about individual fielding over the next month.


Table 1: Probabilistic Model of Range for Teams in 2006

Team

In Play

Outs

Pred Outs

diff

Ratio

Cardinals

4448

3096

3045.22

50.78

101.67

Blue Jays

4326

2994

2951.45

42.55

101.44

Tigers

4439

3112

3069.37

42.63

101.39

Mets

4310

3028

2987.11

40.89

101.37

Cubs

4152

2903

2865.00

38.00

101.33

Yankees

4472

3103

3065.29

37.71

101.23

Giants

4422

3098

3062.31

35.69

101.17

White Sox

4528

3138

3106.11

31.89

101.03

Angels

4301

2970

2940.33

29.67

101.01

Brewers

4300

2950

2922.74

27.26

100.93

Dodgers

4536

3084

3057.68

26.32

100.86

Royals

4618

3120

3093.21

26.79

100.87

Mariners

4431

3054

3029.47

24.53

100.81

Padres

4386

3116

3093.20

22.80

100.74

Braves

4490

3078

3060.69

17.31

100.57

Diamondbacks

4462

3049

3033.47

15.53

100.51

Twins

4328

2967

2952.29

14.71

100.50

Astros

4342

3039

3024.90

14.10

100.47

Phillies

4438

3021

3009.27

11.73

100.39

Rangers

4542

3084

3075.69

8.31

100.27

Orioles

4435

3013

3011.80

1.20

100.04

Rockies

4590

3129

3139.99

-10.99

99.65

Athletics

4530

3120

3133.56

-13.56

99.57

Red Sox

4463

3028

3041.66

-13.66

99.55

Marlins

4339

2971

2985.34

-14.34

99.52

Indians

4594

3099

3122.02

-23.02

99.26

Nationals

4594

3173

3203.39

-30.39

99.05

Reds

4527

3081

3114.48

-33.48

98.93

Devil Rays

4545

3048

3085.21

-37.21

98.79

Pirates

4448

2997

3034.28

-37.28

98.77

Sunday, September 10, 2006

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Wednesday, February 15, 2006

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