Whether or not you think second baseman Will Rhymes has a future as a major league regular, it's hard not to root for him. The diminutve infielder has made a lot of fans with his hustling play and solid contribution offensively and defensively down the stretch. One of his biggest fans is Kurt Mensching of Bless You Boys and Kurt got the opportunity to interview Will earlier this week. Among other things, you'll learn that Rhymes is a biologist and that he makes himself very accessible to internet fans. It was particularly interesting to hear Rhymes's thoughts on the competitiveness of each minor league level. He feels that there is not a big difference between Short season ball (Connecticut Tigers), level A (West Michigan WhiteCaps) and high level A (Lakeland Flying Tigers). While he thinks that the jump to double-A (Erie SeaWolves) is the first really big challenge, he does not feel as if it's as big as the jump to Triple-A (Toledo MudHens:) To me the lower levels are roughly equivalent, short season through high A. Obviously you are continually learning at each level and people can make improvements or struggle at different levels but from a competition stand point, it is very similar. AA begins to separate the men from the boys a little but I disagree with the jump to AA being the biggest. To me AAA is a whole different animal. You have a lot of veteran pitchers who really know how to pitch. You also see a lot of major league-ready arms, and the bullpens are much improved. Overall defense is better, and all of these things make it harder to hit.
Former Detroit Tigers beat writer and current Fox analyst Jon Morosi is supporting Miguel Cabrera for the MVP award over Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton. The part of the article which piqued my interest was the list of criteria which writers are given in considering the MVP: 1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense. 2. Number of games played. 3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort. 4. Former winners are eligible. 5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.
The last two criteria are just reminders and don’t have any bearing on a choice between Cabrera and Hamilton. Criterion three is interesting in that each has experienced substance abuse problems. Both have apparently conquered these issues however, and there is no evidence that either has an advantage in general character.
So, that leaves us with items one and two. Cabrera certainly has the upper hand over Hamilton in games played (146 versus 130). In fact, Hamilton has only started 114 of those 130 games. If he misses the rest of the season with injured ribs, he will have failed to start almost a third of his team’s games. That’s a big chunk and it will probably be considered fairly heavily in MVP voting.
The tricky part is criterion one – value of a player to his team. Morosi gives the following definition of value:
I believe a player’s “value” is best defined as how difficult he would be for the team to replace.
I don’t disagree with this definition. It’s essentially the same criteria used by many modern statistical analysts. It fits nicely with the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) concept. Where I disagree is how he determines value. He reasons that the Rangers would still have a solid line-up without Hamilton, but that the Tigers would be lost without Cabrera:
Take away Hamilton, and the Rangers still have a very good lineup.
Take away Cabrera, and Ryan Raburn is the potential cleanup man. He correctly states that Cabrera has a larger percentage of his team’s home runs and RBI than Hamilton. There is no question that Cabrera is the centerpiece of the Tigers line-up and that Hamilton shares the load with the likes of Vladimir Guerrero, Nelson Cruz and Michael Young. That’s a classic interpretation of what “valuable” means in MVP. It has some merit, but I’m most interested in the number of runs Cabrera and Hamilton contribute to their teams.
One way to estimate run contribution is with the Batting Runs statistic which I discussed earlier this week. I’ll use the following weights for events:
NIBB 0.33 IBB 0.18 HBP 0.33 1B 0.47 2B 0.77 3B 1.04 HR 1.40 Out –0.27
Hamilton leads Cabrera 56.2 to 54.8 in Batting Runs. If we attempt to adjust for home parks (Hamilton plays his home games in a more friendly hitters park than Cabrera), they are essential even: Hamilton 54.4 and Cabrera 54.3.
Now, let’s add equivalent baserunning runs from from Baseball Prospectus. Hamilton has contributed an estimated 3.3 runs with his base running while Cabrera has cost the Tigers an estimated 1.3. The tally is now Hamilton 57.7 and Cabrera 53.0. That is how many offensive runs the two batters have contributed above what you would have been expected from an average batter. So, according to these statistics, Hamilton has had slightly more value while he has been in the line-up than Cabrera has had.
FanGraphs estimates that Hamilton has cost his team 2.4 runs versus Cabrera by not being in the line-up (18.6 replacement value 21.0) So, the gap closes to 2.3 runs. It’s really very close offensively and you could make an argument for either player on that basis.
Where Hamilton has a bigger advantage is in run prevention. FanGraphs estimates that Hamilton has a 6 run advantage simply by playing outfield instead of first base. That sounds fair enough to me. What about quality of defense? If we take the average of Total Zone, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, Hamilton is an estimated +3 runs defensively and Cabrera is –5. That all adds up to a 14 run difference on defense which is a lot. Even if you don’t trust the defensive statistics at all and want to assume that all players are average defensively, it’s still a six run edge for Hamilton.
Is there any way for Cabrera to close the gap? What about situational hitting? Win Probability Added (WPA) is a statistic which takes into account a player’s performance in various scenarios. For example a home run to break a tie in the ninth inning would be worth more than a home run in a blow out. Cabrera has a 6.5 WPA versus 5.9 for Hamilton. So, Cabrera appears to have done a little better in clutch situations and that may be enough to swing the offense slightly in his favor. I don’t know if it’s enough to make up for the fielding gap though.
We’ll get back to the one area where Cabrera has the clear lead – playing time. We kind of incorporated that into our calculations already but it’s still hard to justify giving an MVP to a player with 114 starts. I think Hamilton has been the better player overall and I’m leaning that way at the moment, but if he doesn’t play another game and Cabrera finishes strong, I think you can make a decent case for Cabrera.
Now, I don’t want to give the impression that Hamilton and Cabrera are the only candidates. Jose Bautista, Robinson Cano, Adrian Beltre and Evan Longoria are in the mix as well. Based on what I’ve read though, it seems that voters are giving Cabrera and Hamilton the most consideration.
In a recent FanGraphs article, Dave Cameron discussed how Miguel Cabrera has not been as valuable as some of his numbers might indicate. His reasoning was that Cabrera has been walked intentionally 30 times and intentional walks are not as valuable as non-intentional walks:
Intentional walks are issued in situations where the opposing team believes it is more valuable to have the batter on first base than at the plate. It is a strategic move, based on the situation at hand, that is aimed at reducing the offense’s chance of scoring a run, or multiple runs, in a given inning.
From the examination of thousands of games , it has been determined that the average non-intentional walk (NIBB) contributes about 0.33 runs. In other words, if one NIBB is added to a team’s total in each game for 100 games, that team would be expected to add 33 runs to their season total. An intentional walk (IBB), on the other hand contributes about 0.18 runs on average (according to The Book by Tom Tango, Michel Lichtman and Andrew Dolphin). Other events have the following approximate values (called linear weights):
HBP 0.33 1B .47 2B .77 3B 1.04 HR 1.40 Out –.27
These linear weights can be inserted into a formula to calculate Batting Runs (BR):
BR = 0.33 x NIBB + 0.18 x IBB + 0.33 x HBP + 0.47 x 1B + 0.77 x 2B + 1.04 x 3B + 1.40 x HR – 0.27 X Outs
Sometimes, other events such as errors, stolen bases and caught stealing are included in the formula, but those are not needed for this particular discussion. Cabrera had the following numbers as of yesterday:
NIBB 55 IBB 30 HBP 3 1B 90 2B 45 3B 1 HR 34 Outs 342
According to the above formula, Cabrera had 57.8 BR heading into today’s action. This tells us that he has contributed 57.8 runs above what an average batter would have been expected to contribute given the same number of outs. Suppose, we did not distinguish between NIBB’s and IBBS and credited Cabrera 0.33 runs for all of his walks. In that case, we would add 30 x .15 = 4.5 runs giving him a total of 62.3 BR.
Whether or not we distinguish between different types of walks is important in comparing his batting to Josh Hamilton, who is considered his main competition for the MVP award. If we give batters less credit for intentional walks, then Cabrera leads Hamilton (38 NIBB, 5 IBB) in BR 57.8 to 56.2. If we consider all walks to be worth 0.33 runs, then Cabrera leads 62.3 to 56.9. We wouldn’t stop there in determining their value of course. We would look at baserunning contribution, park effects, position and defensive contribution. That’s for another post though.
The question is should we distinguish between type of walk in the calculation of batting runs? Tigers fans have protested that Miguel Cabrera is being unfairly punished just because he has had less protection in the batting order than Hamilton. They also reason that he gets walked a lot because pitchers fear him and would rather not face him. This indicates something positive about Cabrera’s hitting skill, not something negative.
The purpose of Batting Runs though is not to punish or reward a player. It’s also not meant to determine the best hitter. It is supposed to determine how much value in terms of runs a player contributes to his team. Thus, when a pitcher walks a batter to reduce the potential of scoring a run, it makes sense that the value of that walk might be reduced accordingly.
This practice is not universally accepted though. Tango and FanGraphs distinguish between walks but Pete Palmer (the creator of the linear weights system) and Gary Gillette do not distinguish between NIBBs and IBBs in The ESPN Baseball Encylopedia. Baseball-Reference follows the lead of Palmer on that issue as well.
A reason for not cutting the value of an IBB might be that many NIBBs are essentially IBBs. There are many instances where batters are pitched around and receive a walk without it being an intentional walk. This is especially true when considering hitters of the caliber of Hamilton and Cabrera. So, do we cut the value of all their walks in high leverage situations because we know pitchers are usually not giving them anything to hit?
I don’t think the solution to the intentional walk problem is cut and dried. I typically look at FanGraphs Batting Runs (wRAA) before I go to Baseball-Reference but in the case of batters like Cabrera or Albert Pujols, who receive a lot of intentional walks, I think it’s important to look at it both ways. There is never one number that gives you the final answer in statistical analysis.
Ryan Raburn’s 2010 season is looking very familiar. Last year, the Tigers outfielder finished strong down the stretch and ended up with an impressive .892 OPS in 291 plate appearances. He batted only .253 with a .778 OPS in spotty playing time through the first four months. Most of his damage was done in August and September when he batted .342/.403/.640 and was one of the Tigers’ key hitters in their central division title chase. It was felt by some observers that Ryan’s strong finish earned him more regular playing time for 2010, but he found himself back on the bench for much of the first four months. He did not play well in his utility role batting just .211 with a .329 slugging average in 182 PA through July. Some embarrassing mishaps in the outfield did not help his cause either. When Magglio Ordonez went down with an ankle injury in late July, Raburn got an opportunity for more playing time in left field with rookie Brennan Boesch switching to right field. Raburn has responded by batting .340/.389/.647 in 172 PA since August 1. The only American Leaguers with a higher slugging average during this period have been Blue Jays surprise slugger Jose Bautista (.664) and White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko (.656). Raburn’s late season surge leaves some Tigers fans wondering once again whether be deserves a shot at a starting job. His .837 OPS over the last two seasons ranks him third among American League outfielders with 500 or more PA. For his career, he has posted a .857 OPS versus left-handed pitchers and a .753 OPS versus right-handers. So, he probably wouldn’t do quite as well in a full-time role. There are concerns about his defense. He looks very awkward at times, but I think he makes up for some of that with a strong arm and decent range. His numbers don’t support the contention that he is an awful outfielder. In four partial seasons, he has a combined –3.5 Ultimate Zone Rating and +2 Fielding Bible Defensive Runs Saved. He’s certainly not a graceful outfielder but he seems adequate enough if he hits and may be a better defender with regular playing time at one position. Ultimately, I think the 29-year-old Raburn will be a utility man again, backing up all three outfield positions and second base. Another season of 300 PA seems like a good bet, but a starting job is not out of the question at this point. With only center fielder Austin Jackson locked into a role for next season, the opportunity could be there. If Raburn gets out of the gate fast for a change, he could seize a regular job.
One of my favorite news items of the off-season used the be the announcement of next season’s schedule. If I remember correctly, this would typically occur in the middle of December. Seeing next season’s schedule on a frigid winter day was enough to warm a fan up with thoughts of summer. For the last few years though, the schedule has been coming out in August or September. Yesterday, the Tigers released their 2011 Schedule. While it doesn’t have quite the same effect as a December release, it’s still fun to anticipate 2011 given that the Tigers are out of contention in 2010. The first thing I noticed is that the season ends on Wednesday, September 28 versus the Indians. This is unusual because as long as I can remember every regular season has ended on a Sunday. The likely reason is an effort to start and end the playoffs a little earlier. This year, the World Series may extend into November. The Tigers season opens on Thursday, March 31 in Yankee Stadium, which means that fans will probably be in winter coats, hats and gloves for the opener. The Thursday start to the season is also a bit unusual. In recent years, the season opened with a game or two on Sunday and a full slate of games on Monday. The first Comerica Park game is versus the Royals on April 8. Other Scheduling Thoughts The Tigers have interleague games at Pittsburgh, Colorado and Los Angeles next year. They play New York, Arizona and San Francisco at home. I’m not a fan of interleague play, but the Tigers generally have so much success versus the National League that it’s hard to complain too much. I don’t like west coast games very much because they end too late causing me to stay up beyond 1:00 AM. In a good year, they are limited to one or two trips to Oakland, Seattle and Los Angeles. This year, they’ve got four of them spread throughout the year – seven games in Oakland and Seattle in April, a series in Los Angeles versus the Dodgers in June, another in Los Angeles against the Angels in July (including July 4th which I hope will be an afternoon game) and one series at Oakland in September. If I go to see the Tigers at Fenway this year, my choice will be limited to two games – a Wednesday or Thursday in the middle of May. A night game on May 18 in Boston is almost certainly going to involve a chilling sea breeze. They have another dreadful four day all-star break this year from July 11-14. They are off again on July 18. Their toughest stretch of the year may be 15 games versus the Rays, Red Sox, Twins, White Sox and Rangers in late May and early June. On the other hand, they finish the season with eight games versus the Royals, Orioles and Indians.
In an earlier post, I discussed the pros and cons of two commonly used Wins Above Replacement statistics for pitchers: I then took the average of those two WARs for each Tigers starter. In a follow-up post, I did the same calculation for American Leaguers starters and found Seattle left-hander Felix Hernandez to be the top pitcher. Today, I’ll look at National League starters The fWAR statistic is based on FIP and innings pitched. As such, it favors pitchers with a high number of innings pitched and strong peripherals – high strikeout rates and low walk and home run rates. It is forgiving to pitchers with high ERAs relative to their peripherals. Table 1 shows the National League fWAR leaders in 2010. Roy Halladay of the Phillies and Josh Johnson of the Marlins are tied for the league lead with 6.2 fWAR. Rockies fire baller Ubaldo Jimenez (5.8) and Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright (5.4) are also more than five wins above replacement.
Table1: NL fWAR Leaders | Pitcher | fWAR | | Halladay, Phi | 6.2 | | Johnson, Fla | 6.2 | | Jimenez, Col | 5.8 | | Wainwright, Stl | 5.4 | | Lincecum, SF | 4.2 | The rWAR statistic is based on innings pitched and runs allowed with adjustments made for team defense (as measured by Total Zone) behind a pitcher. It is friendly to a pitcher with a high number of innings and a low RA - which is the same as ERA except it considers all runs rather than just earned runs. A pitcher with a low RA, despite weak defensive support, will do particularly well on this statistic. Rally’s WAR is unaffected by peripherals. We can see in Table 2 that Halladay sits atop rWAR leader board at 6.7. He is followed by Johnson (6.3), Jimenez (5.9) and Braves comeback pitcher Tim Hudson (5.7).
Table 2: NL rWAR Leaders | Pitcher | rWAR | | Halladay, Phi | 6.7 | | Johnson, Fla | 6.3 | | Jimenez, Col | 5.9 | | Hudson, Atl | 5.7 | | Wainwright, Stl | 5.5 | Fans who don’t want to choose between runs allowed and peripherals ( I fall in this category) might prefer a combined WAR. One way to do this is to compute a simple average of fWAR and rWAR as displayed in Table 3. Using this approach, Halladay (6.4 Avg WAR) is the top pitcher, followed by Johnson (6.2), Jimenez (5.8) and Wainwright (5.4).
Another thing to note is that some pitchers do much better on one stat than the other. For example, the Giants’ Tim Lincecum is fifth with 4.2 fWAR but has only 2.7 rWAR. This is because he has strong peripherals relative to his RA. Other pitchers such as the Hudson (3.4 vs. 5.7) do better on rWAR. Table 3: NL Average WAR Leaders | Pitcher | fWAR | rWAR | Avg WAR | | Halladay, Phi | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.4 | | Johnson, Fla | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | | Jimenez, Col | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.8 | | Wainwright, Stl | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | | Hudson, Atl | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.6 | | Myers, Hou | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.4 | | Santana, NY | 3.7 | 4.6 | 4.2 | | Hamels, Phi | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | | Latos, SD | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.0 | | Kershaw, LA | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
In my previous post, I discussed the pros and cons of two commonly used Wins Above Replacement statistics for pitchers: The fWAR statistic is based on FIP and innings pitched. As such, it favors pitchers with a high number of innings pitched and strong peripherals – high strikeout rates and low walk and home run rates. It is forgiving to pitchers with high ERAs relative to their peripherals. Table 1 shows the American League WAR leaders in 2010. Those who favor this FIP based WAR are probably choosing between Francisco Liriano (6.1 fWAR), Cliff Lee ( 6.0) and Felix Hernandez (5.9) in a close Cy Young race.
Table1: AL fWAR Leaders | Pitcher | fWAR | | Liriano, Min | 6.1 | | Lee, Sea-Tex | 6.0 | | Hernandez, Sea | 5.9 | | Weaver, LA | 5.1 | | Lester, Bos | 5.0 | The rWAR statistic is based on innings pitched and runs allowed with adjustments made for team defense (as measured by Total Zone) behind a pitcher. It is friendly to a pitcher with a high number of innings and a low RA - which is the same as ERA except it considers all runs rather than just earned runs. A pitcher with a low RA, despite weak defensive support, will do particularly well on this statistic. Rally’s WAR is unaffected by peripherals. As seen in Table 2, supporters of rWAR likely see Hernandez as the clear Cy Young favorite.
Table 2: AL rWAR Leaders | Pitcher | rWAR | | Hernandez, Sea | 5.6 | | Weaver, LA | 5.1 | | Liriano, Min | 4.7 | | Pavano, Min | 4.6 | | Price, TB | 4.6 | Fans who don’t want to choose between runs allowed and peripherals ( I fall in this category) might prefer a combined WAR. One way to do this is to compute a simple average of fWAR and rWAR as displayed in Table 3. Using this approach, Hernandez (5.8 Avg WAR) looks like the top pitcher, followed by Liriano (5.4), Weaver (5.1) and Lee (4.8).
Another thing you may notice is that some pitchers do much better on one stat than the other. For example, Liriano (6.1 fWAR versus 4.7 rWAR) and Lee (6.0 vs. 3.5) do far better on fWAR because of their strong peripherals and good but not great RAs. On the other hand, hurlers such as David Price (3.7 vs. 4.6) and Carl Pavano (3.6 vs. 4.6) do better on rWAR. Table 3: AL Average WAR Leaders | Pitcher | fWAR | rWAR | Avg WAR | | Hernandez, Sea | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.8 | | Liriano, Min | 6.1 | 4.7 | 5.4 | | Weaver, LA | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | | Lee, Sea-Tex | 6.0 | 3.5 | 4.8 | | Lester, Bos | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | | Price, TB | 3.7 | 4.6 | 4.2 | | Wilson, Tex | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.2 | | Danks, Chi | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | | Pavano, Min | 3.6 | 4.6 | 4.1 | | Sabathia, NY | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | | Verlander, Det | 4.5 | 3.4 | 4.0 |
You may have noticed that there are two commonly used Wins Above Replacementnt (WAR) statistics for both hitters and pitchers:
Today. I’m going to discuss the pitching version of each. There are pros and cons to both measures and the statistical community is still debating the merits of the two. fWAR is based on FIP and therefore only considers events which a pitcher essentially controls – K, BB, HR, IP. It also adjusts for a pitchers home park.
The fWAR statistic has some potential drawbacks. First, it considers BABIP to be completely out of control of the pitcher. It also gives a pitcher no credit for distribution of base runners or sequencing events. For example, a pitcher that pitched well with runners on base would not get credit for that.
The rWAR statistic was invented by Sean Smith and is found on Baseball-Reference. It starts with total runs allowed by a pitcher and then adjusts for team fielding behind that pitcher. It considers IP run average (RA) - which is the same as ERA except it considers all runs rather than earned runs - and the Total Zone statistic. It also adjusts for the pitcher’s home park. The advantage is that it tries to tease out defense rather than completely ignore balls in play.
A potential shortcoming of rWAR is that the measurement of team defense in a single season is still shaky. It’s also possible that rWAR gives a pitcher too much credit for limiting hits on balls in play, distribution of base runners and sequencing.
So, which one is better? I prefer the concept of rWAR better. I think it’s good to start any kind of run prevention evaluation with runs allowed. The next step would be to determine how much of run prevention is pitching and how much is fielding. rWAR attempts to do that but the measurement of team defense in a single season is still too tenuous for me to use rWAR by itself.
Over the course of a career or several seasons, rWAR becomes more reliable because variation in team defense evens out and we learn more about a pitchers ability to control BABIP, base runner distribution and sequencing over time.
fWAR is valuable because it tells us how good a pitcher was at events over which he has the most responsibility. Thus, it is better statistic than rWAR for identifying pitching talent and projecting into the future. However, it makes too many assumptions about events which a pitcher does not control by himself for me to use it as a stand alone measure.
So rWAR is best for career measurement and fWAR is good for projection. How about evaluating which pitcher did best last season? I would not use either by itself, but rather I would make a judgment using both. One way to do that would be to take an average or weighted average of the two statistics. For now, I’ll look at the Tigers starters in 2010 using a straight average (Table 1).
Table 1: WAR for Tigers Starters in 2010
| Pitcher | fWAR | rWAR | AverageWAR | | Verlander | 4.5 | 3.4 | 4.0 | | Scherzer | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | | Galarraga | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | | Porcello | 1.7 | -0.1 | 0.8 | | Bonderman | 1.5 | -0.1 | 0.7 |
We can see that Justin Verlander was 4.5 wins above a replacement player according to Fan Graphs and 3.4 using Baseball-Reference. That averages out to 4.0 WAR. Based on that, we would say that he has added an estimated four wins to the Tigers beyond what an average player would contribute. Max Scherzer is next in line with an average WAR of 3.1.
All of the Tigers did better on fWAR than rWAR except Armando Galarraga. Galarraga does poorly on f WAR because he has not done a good job on things that a pitcher most controls (fWAR). He does better on rWAR because he has a low BABIP and relatively low ERA.
In future posts, I am going to look at average WAR for pitchers on other teams.
Last year, the voters for the Cy Young award selected 16-game winner Zach Greinke over 19-game winners Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. Based on ERA and sabermetric statistics such as Wins Above Replacement (WAR), they clearly made the right choice. In the the National League, they selected 15-game-winner Tim Lincecum instead of 19-game winner Adam Wainwright. There would have been no shame in giving the award to Wainwright, but again I think the made the correct selection. Those were two of the three lowest win totals for starting pitchers in the history of the award (Brandon Webb also won 16 games in 2006).
Traditionally, the writers who vote for the award have made games won a major criteria. In 1990, for example Clemens had 21 wins and led the American League with a 1.93 ERA, but lost out to 27-game winner Bob Welch, who had an ERA a full run higher (2.95). That appears to be changing as they seem to be recognizing more than ever that wins is not the fairest way to evaluate pitchers. This year will be particularly interesting though as they may have to choose between a potential 20-game winner and pitcher with fewer than 15 wins.
As it stands now, Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia has a 19-6 record. Felix Hernandez of the Mariners stands at 11-10. Readers of this blog don’t need me to explain the failings of won-loss record for pitchers, but this case is so extreme it’s worth mentioning the run support argument. While Sabathia has benefitted from 6.07 runs per game, King Felix has only received 3.16 runs per game. That’s almost three more runs per game for Sabathia! That’s hardly a fair comparison
Sometimes, pitchers accumulate a lot of wins because they are workhorses which pitch deep into games. One might guess that a 19-game winner would be pitching deeper into games than an 11-game winner, but, in this case, Hernandez actually has more innings pitched (219 1/3 versus 209). So, the wins statistic is not going to work here at all.
Since the main job of a pitcher is to give up as few runs as possible, a good starting point in pitcher evaluation is ERA. Table 1 shows that Hernandez leads Sabathia in ERA by a wide margin (2.30 versus 3.14). The ERA leader is Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox at 2.25. However, Buchholz has pitched only 151 2/3 innings, so he has not helped his team as much as Hernandez.
Table 1: AL ERA Leaders
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | | Buchholz, Bos | 151 2/3 | 2.25 | | Hernandez, Sea | 219 1/3 | 2.30 | | Cahill, Oak | 165 2/3 | 2.72 | | Price, TB | 178 2/3 | 2.87 | | Wilson, Tex | 177 | 3.10 | | Weaver, LA | 189 | 3.14 | | Sabathia, NY | 209 | 3.14 |
In order to give pitchers credit for quantity of innings pitched as well as quality, Pete Palmer introduced the Pitching Runs statistic in 1984. Pitching Runs tells us the number of runs saved by a pitcher compared to league average. In it’s purest form, it is based on a pitcher’s IP and earned runs (ER) and the league ERA (Lg ERA):
Pitching Runs = IP x Lg ERA/9 – ER.
The Baseball-Reference version also adjusts for ballpark. Hernandez has 39 Pitching Runs (See Table 2) which means that he has saved his team 39 runs compared to what the average pitcher would have saved in his place. Because his greater workload is taken into account, Hernandez leads Buchholz by 7.7 runs. Sabathia is only 10th in the league with 19.5.
Table 2: AL Pitching Runs Leaders
| Pitcher | IP | Pitching Runs | | Hernandez, Sea | 219 1/3 | 39.0 | | Buchholz, Bos | 151 | 31.3 | | Price, TB | 178 2/3 | 24.6 | | Cahill, Oak | 165 2/3 | 23.9 | | Wilson, Tex | 177 | 22.2 | | Weaver, LA | 189 | 21.3 | | Lester, Bos | 182 | 20.9 | | Liriano, Min | 172 1/3 | 19.9 | | Gonzalez, Oak | 179 2/3 | 19.7 | | Sabathia, NY | 209 | 19.5 |
A shortcoming of both ERA and Pitching Runs is that the don’t consider defensive support behind a pitcher. The WAR statistic developed by Sean Smith and listed at Baseball-Reference attempts to take fielding into account. WAR is calculated as follows: -
Determine how many runs a pitcher allowed.
-
Calculate average runs allowed by pitchers facing the same teams for the same number of innings as the pitcher of interest.
-
Adjust for team defensive runs saved based on Total Zone. Total Zone is computed from plays made, errors, which fielders fielded each out and hit, batted ball type, handedness of pitcher and batter, and park adjustments.
-
Multiply by 1.22 to get replacement level for an AL starter.
-
Subtract (4) from (2) to get WAR.
Table 3 shows that Felix Hernandez was the clear leader in WAR with 5.7. This says that Hernandez contributed close to six wins more than you would expect from a replacement level player. Sabathia is 10th in the league with 4 WAR.
Table 3: AL Starting Pitcher WAR Leaders
| Pitcher | WAR | | Hernandez, Sea | 5.7 | | Weaver, LA | 4.8 | | Buchholz, Bos | 4.8 | | Liriano, Min | 4.7 | | Wilson, Tex | 4.6 | | Price, TB | 4.6 | | Pavano, Min | 4.4 | | Lester, Bos | 4.3 | | Danks, Chi | 4.2 | | Sabathia, NY | 4.0 |
Based on ERA, Pitching Runs and WAR and every other statistic other than wins, Hernandez appears to be the superior pitcher to Sabathia this year. It will be very interesting to see how the vote turns out if Sabathia wins 20+ and Hernandez wins only 11 to 13 games.
Edit: St. Pierre did not actually score the winning run. Brennan Boesch pinch ran for him and he scored the run.
I’ve been to a lot of minor league parks over the years. I have followed Tigers prospects in Lowell, MA, Manchester, NH, Pawtucket, RI, Oneonta, NY and Lakeland, FL among other places. I’ve even attended some Arizona Fall League games. I typically go specifically to watch the top prospects like Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Curtis Granderson and Cameron Maybin. I could not help but notice though that, for the longest time, I’ve been penciling Maxim St. Pierre’s name into box scores.
There is a reason it seems that Max has been around forever. He was drafted by the Tigers in the 26th round of the First Year Player draft in June, 1997. The Montreal native has spent the last14 years in the minors – 13 in the Tigers system – without ever playing a game in the majors. He has made stops with the Gulf Coast League Tigers, Oneonta, West Michigan, Lakeland, Erie, Toledo and Huntsville (one year with the Brewers). How long is 14 years? When he was drafted in 1997, Raul Casanova was the Tigers regular catcher that year.
Earlier in the week, St. Pierre finally realized his dream when the Tigers recalled him for the final month of the season. With Laird battling a sore back, the Tigers felt they could use a third catcher as rosters expanded. The 30-year-old St. Pierre has had a good season batting a combined .274/.353/.479 for Erie and Toledo and is a strong defender. Just as important, the out-of-contention Tigers are rewarding him for his many years of service.
Today, Max played in his first major league game. The pitcher was Rick Porcello, who was eight years old when St. Pierre signed with the Tigers organization. St. Pierre grounded out to shortstop in his first major league at bat. He failed to hit in his first three at bats, but got one more chance in the eighth with the score tied at four. The rookie catcher responded by poking a single to center field. He eventually came around to score what proved to be the winning run in a 6-4 win over the Royals.
The Tigers have had a lot of rookies get their first major league hits this year – Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch and Casper Wells to name a few. But St. Pierre’s first hit was more special than any of them.
There has been much discussion on the internet about Jhonny Peralta’s potential role on the Tigers in 2011. He has a club option that would pay him $7 million next year. If they want him back, they can either allow the option to kick in or decline the option and try to sign him at a lower salary. The other question is whether he would play third base or shortstop.
With Brandon Inge’s contract coming to an end after this season, the Tigers could replace him with Peralta. According to the Fan Graphs weighted runs created statistic (wRC or RC), Peralta has 57.7 RC in 506 Plate appearances (PA) this year. Over 650 PA, that would be 74 RC. Similarly, Inge’s 52.5 RC over 466 PA translates into 73 RC over a full season. So, there is only a one run difference between the two. Performing similar calculations on 2009 data yields 65 RC for Peralta and 70 RC for Inge. So, based on the last two seasons, Peralta would not be an upgrade over Inge offensively.
Defensively, I’ll look at the Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) over 2009-2010 because it’s always a good idea to use multiple fielding measures and multiple years when evaluating defense. Peralta had the following numbers at in 2009-2010:
DRS –4 +2 UZR –2 –4
Averaging those together yields an estimate of 0 defensive runs saved. Now for Inge:
DRS +8 -1 UZR +7 +3
That averages out to +4 runs saved. So, I’ll estimate that Inge is 4 runs better than Peralta defensively. Peralta is only one run better offensively this year, so he’s clearly not an upgrade overall. They are probably better off with Inge at third for next year, but it’s not a big difference.
What about Peralta at shortstop. Would you rather have Peralta or Ramon Santiago/ Danny Worth? Some of you might be thinking “none of the above”, but let’s look at those two options. The table below looks at the runs created numbers for the three shortstops in 2010.
| Player | PA | RC | | Peralta | 506 | 57.7 | | Santiago | 334 | 34.6 | | Worth | 115 | 9.7 |
We saw above that Peralta would have 74 RC over 650 PA. Suppose, we give 400 PA to Santiago and 250 to Worth. Their estimated RC are in the following Table
| Player | PA | RC | | Peralta | 650 | 74 | | Santiago | 400 | 42 | | Worth | 250 | 21 |
Over a combined 650 PA, Santiago and Worth would have 63 RC. That is 11 runs fewer than Peralta. Do Santiago and Worth make up for it defensively? We are dealing with a lot of small sample sizes here, so I’ll go back five years. First, Peralta:
DRS –6 –6 –2 –6 +5 UZR –6 –11 –12 –1 +3
That averages to –4 runs which Peralta cost his team. Now, Santiago:
DRS +1 +8 –6 –2 +9 UZR +2 +3 0 –1 +6
That comes out to +2 runs saved on average. The data on Worth is too limited, so I’ll assume that he is average defensively, which based on observation and reputation seems fair. So, let’s say that Santiago/Worth are +1 defensively. That makes them five runs better than Peralta. Combine that with the offense and Peralta is six runs better.
My conclusion is that the 2009-2010 version of Peralta would not be an upgrade at third base, but would be a slight upgrade at shortstop assuming his defense does not fall off a cliff. Now, if Peralta can get back to his 90 RC production of 2008, then he would be a big upgrade at either position. My original thought was that he would be ok at third but not at shortstop. I'm still leery of the Tigers using a below average defender at shortstop and I hope they look elsewhere. However, it looks like shortstop might actually be a better idea than third base.
After getting shelled in four consecutive starts and seeing his ERA balloon to 7.29, Max Scherzer was sent to triple-A Toledo after his May 14 start to work on his mechanics. He pitched two games for the MudHens and apparently learned a lot. He returned to the Tigers with a bang on May 30. In that game, he struckout a career high 14 batters in 5 2/3 scoreless innings. In 17 starts since his recall – essentially half a season – the twenty-six-year-old right-hander has compiled a 2.20 ERA in 110 2/3 innings. As seen is Table 1, this ranks him fourth in the American League over that period. Table 1 – AL ERA Leaders, May 30 – August 28
| Pitcher | ERA | | Buchholz, Bos | 1.88 | | Hernandez, Sea | 1.90 | | Cahill, Oak | 2.17 | | Scherzer, Det | 2.20 | | Sabathia, NY | 2.32 | | Wilson, Tex | 2.72 | | Floyd, Chi | 2.74 | | Morrow, Tor | 3.09 | | Lester, Bos | 3.11 | | Lee, Sea/Tex | 3.27 | Max has been striking out batters at a rate of 9.4 per nine innings (K/9) since May 30, which ranks him fifth in the league (Table 2). This is nothing new for Scherzer, who had 9.5 k/9 in 226 1/3 innings prior to 2010. Teammate Justin Verlander is also among the leaders with 8.7 K/9 since May 30. Table 2 – AL K/9 IP Leaders, May 30 – August 28 | Pitcher | K/9 | | Morrow, Tor | 10.3 | | Liriano, Min | 10.2 | | Weaver, LA | 9.8 | | Price, TB | 9.6 | | Scherzer, Det | 9.4 | | Lewis, Tex | 9.0 | | Verlander, Det | 8.7 | | Hernandez, Sea | 8.6 | | Matsuzaka, Bos | 8.4 | | Greinke, KC | 8.1 | One area where Scherzer still struggles at times is control. He has walked 3.5 batters per nine innings since May 30 and also for the season. This has made it difficult for him to consistently pitch deep into games. He pitched six or more innings in just nine of his first 19 starts. In his last six starts, however, he has pitched 6+ innings each time and 7+ innings four times. He has walked just 12 batters in 41 1/3 innings during that span. Beyond control, the one other thing Scherzer needs to prove is that he can pitch strong for 200 innings a season. He has pitched 152 2/3 innings this year and made it through 170 1/3 innings in 2009. He has certainly been dominant over the past 17 starts though and showing no signs of fatigue. Statistics for this article were abstracted from BaseballMusings.com Day-by-Day Database
For the eighth year, Tom Tango is conducting his fan scouting report on fielding skills. The results of this survey are a very valuable resource so I'm encouraging all knowledgeable fans who watch a lot of Detroit Tigers games to participate. The survey asks fans to rate the fielding skills of players on their favorite teams just based on observation. You will be asked not to use any stats at all and also not to vote based on what somebody else told you. Just use your own eyes as if you were a scout. The results were very interesting and informative last year but a large sample size is needed in order for them to be useful again this year. Some of the results appear in the Bill James Handbook which comes out every November. So, I urge all of you to complete the ballot.
I think most readers of this blog understand the problems with using fielding percentage as a measure of individual or team defense, but I still see a lot of people using it in various places (e.g. television broadcasts and message boards). So, I’ll review its limitations before moving on to better measures. First, fielding percentage is the proportion of a team’s total chances (putouts, assists and errors) which result in either a putout or an assist. The Tigers currently have a .982 fielding percentage which means they have avoided errors on 98.2% of their chances. That ranks them 19th in the majors.
One issue with fielding percentage is that error totals can be influenced by the subjectivity of official scorers. An official scorer might occasionally give the home team’s fielders and hitters the benefit of the doubt by awarding hits on plays that might be called errors by another scorer. Over the course of a season, this could influence a team’s fielding percentage.
Even if we assume that there is no scorer bias and that all scorers judge plays the same way, fielding percentage is still fundamentally flawed. The problem is that it only penalizes fielders for errors made and does not charge them for balls that they can not reach. It tells us nothing about the amount of ground covered by players and does not consider the difficulty of plays made or not made.
When Bill James introduced the defensive efficiency ratio (DER) statistic in the 1978 Baseball Abstract, it was the first time team defense had been formerly quantified in terms of range instead of errors. DER is the proportion of batted balls in play, not including home runs, which are converted to outs by a team’s fielders. For example, the Tigers have a .688 DER this year which means they have turned 68.8% of balls in play into outs.
The Tigers are 19th in the majors in DER which matches the fielding percentage rank. However, some teams rank quite differently on the two statistics. The Oakland Athletics, for example, are first in DER, but only 13th in fielding percentage. On the other hand, The Astros rank 29th in DER but 14th in fielding percentage. So, the Athletics are a much better fielding team than the Astros, but fielding percentage makes them look like equals.
DER is limited because it does not consider factors such as types of batted balls allowed by the team’s pitchers (e.g. ground balls, fly balls), location of batted balls, how hard the ball was hit, handedness of pitcher and batter, and home ballpark. The Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) statistic introduced by Mitchel Lichtman in 2003 further refines the measurement of fielding by considering all those factors. The Tigers have a UZR of +8.5 which means they have saved 8.5 runs compared to what you’d expect from the average team.
The Tigers rank 10th in MLB in UZR, but that’s a little deceptive as UZR does not include pitchers and the the Tigers pitchers have not fielded very well this year. A similar statistic which does include pitchers is Defensive Runs Saved or DRS (John Dewan, The Fielding Bible – Volume II). The Tigers have a DRS of +2 with places them 19th in the majors. The Tigers pitchers have a combined DRS of –14 which means they cost their team 14 runs versus what you’d expect from an average team. Poor fielding by pitchers is why the Tigers ranks worse on DRS than UZR.
The Tigers ranked 9th in DER, 8th in UZR and 7th in DRS in 2009. So, their fielding is clearly not as good this year as it was last year. Their DRS in 2009 was +40, so, according to that measure, Tigers fielders have cost their team 38 more runs this year over last year. Since, 10 extra runs is worth approximately one win, we can say that their defense is four wins worse this year.
Yesterday, we saw that run scoring in Major League Baseball has sharply decreased since 2000 and that runs per game in the American League has returned to early 1990s levels. Today, we’ll explore trends in statistics that contribute to runs scoring. For the sake of simplicity, we will consider Major League Baseball as a whole, rather than divide into leagues. As shown in Figure 1, the Home runs per game in MLB have dropped from a peak of 1.17 in 2000 to 0.95 in 2010, a decreased of 19%. That is a significant drop in ten years and the result is a more balanced game. The home run rate in 2010 was the lowest since 0.89 in 1993.
Batting average (Figure 2) has also been on the decline, but not as dramatically as home runs. The .259 batting average in 2010 is about 4% lower than the .270 mark in 2000. The last time the MLB batting average was below .260 was in 1992 when batters hit a combined .256.  In Figure 3, we see that bases on balls don’t have the same trend as homers and batting average. After soaring to 3.68 in 1999 and 3.75 in 2000, walks per game have remained fairly steady between 2001-2010. It’s possible that the spike in 1999-2000 was an over reaction to the high homer totals in those years. 
The most interesting trend shows up in Figure 4. While batting average and homeruns have been going down, strikeouts have been increasing. In fact, the 6.97 strikeouts per game in 2010 is the highest rate in history. Strikeouts have been generally rising since 1978 when there were 4.77 per game. That 46% increase between 1978-2010 is huge. I think it shows the ever growing emphasis on power hitting and power pitching. You would think that as homers become more scarce, we would see more of a contact approach to both pitching and hitting but this hasn’t happened for four decades. 
You probably noticed that the Tigers are not scoring a lot of runs in 2010. Indeed, they are averaging just 4.34 runs per game (RPG). However, there are a lot of teams not scoring runs this year. A total of five teams in the American League have scored fewer runs than the Tigers and the league average is only 4.47 RPG. That is down 7.3% from 2009 when the league averaged 4.82 runs.
While there is year to year variation, the chart below shows that there has been a general downward trend in run scoring over the past decade. AL offense is down 10.0% from from 2006 (4.97 RPG) and 15.7% from the height of the home run derby era in 2000 (5.30 RPG).
Offense is also declining in the National League but not by quite as much. There have been 4.36 runs per game in the NL this year which is not much different from the 4.43 RPG in 2009. Over time, run production in the senior circuit is down 8.4% since 2006 (4.76 RPG) and 12.8% since 2000 (5.00 RPG).
 The reason for the sharper decline in AL could just be random variation, In other words, it could just be a down year for offense in the AL. It will take a couple more years to see if the offensive output of the two leagues has really become that close. If it is a real trend, one explanation might be that AL teams are trying to keep up with the The Yankees by emphasizing defense, which has become cheaper than offense in recent years. Regardless of any differences between the leagues, it is clear that the we have come a long way since the crazy offense of ten years ago. In fact, fewer runs have scored in 2010 than any year since 1992 (4.32 RPG in the AL and 3.88 in the NL). What we have today is a more balanced game between run scoring and run prevention than we had in 2000. I believe this makes for a more entertaining game with a greater variety of teams and types of players.
Armando Galarraga faced the Indians tonight for the first time since his famous imperfect game on June 2. He started off right where he left off retiring the first 14 batters he faced. That made it 42 straight Indians set down by Galarraga. After Brandon Inge made an outstanding play on a smash to the left side to retire Shelley Duncan for out number 14, you had to start wondering whether this might be another special night for Armando. The streak came to an end though when Jayson Nix hit a double just off the outstretched glove of Don Kelly in deep left. Galarraga was outstanding in pitching seven scoreless innings. In fact it was one of his best games of his career. He allowed just three hits, walked nobody and tied a career high with eight strikeouts. Was it something that Alex Avila said? We'll never know what kind of an effect the dugout spat with Avila had on Galarraga but he He was certainly pitching into the zone more aggressively than he has in many past games. Gerald Laird was the catcher in today's game by the way. It was an easy win tonight, something that hasn't happened very often this year even when they were winning in the first half. Donald Kelly had four hits and Brandon Inge and Austin Jackson three apiece to pace a 16 hit attack. The only Tiger without a hit was Johnny Damon. The Tigers are finally done with their long stretch of games versus the top teams in the league. They failed miserably during that time. Hopefully, they can now finish the season in somewhat respectable fashion against an easier schedule.
On July 21-22, the Tigers beat the Rangers and Blue Jay's in consecutive games and were just two games behind the first place Chicago White Sox. It took them more than three weeks to win back-to-back games again. After beating the White Sox 3-2 on a two-run homer in the ninth by Alex Avila last night, the Tigers out slugged the Sox 13-8 this afternoon. The wins leave the Tigers in third place 10 1/2 games behind the Twins. It was a seesaw game today which saw the Tigers jump out to an early 5-1 lead, fall behind 7-5, and then come back to win it. The weak hitting Tigers erupted for 16 hits including eight extra-base hits today. Jhonny Peralta hit a pair of homers and Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Raburn had one apiece. Johhny Damon also had a big day belting a double and a triple. Raburn heating up Ryan Raburn has claimed the regular left field job with some hot hitting this month. After a disappointing first half of the season, he has finally found his stroke. Raburn has batted .327/.277/.694 in 14 games this month. This is the second straight season he has hit well late in the season after a disappointing start. The key may be that the injury to Magglio Ordonez has given Raburn more consistent playing time.
I generally don't like it when fans talk about the season being over in July or August. It's particularly annoying when that sentiment is expressed when the team is two or three games out of first as the Tigers were until recently. After all, things can turn around fast and unexpectedly in baseball. I'm not one to ever give up while the Tigers are still mathematically in contention, but realistically they have little chance of getting back into the race this year. Now ten games behind the White Sox and 8 1/2 behind the second place Twins, it's time to start thinking about 2011 at least a little bit. So, today, I'll take a position by position look at which players might be back next year. CatcherGerald Laird has been very disappointing this year to say the least. He is batting .185 with little power and even has defense has declined. He is on the last year of his contract and I don't expect him back next year. Alex Avila has also been a disappointment, although he might have been rushed in an effort to add a left-handed bat to the team. I still think the Tigers view him as the catcher of the future though and he should be back next year. They will likely get a veteran catcher to split time with Avila. First baseThere's much to talk about here. Miguel Cabrera be back for at least the next five years Second baseRight now, Carlos Guillen, Will Rhymes and Scott Sizemore are potential second basemen for 2011. Sizemore has been slowed by injuries (ankle and hip) this year and has likely never been fully healthy all season. He has hit well at triple-A but not in the majors. Assuming they don't get a replacement outside the organization, Sizemore is probably the favorite to win the position next year, but he won't be guaranteed a starting job as he was last spring. Given his health history, they certainly can't count on Guillen to be the regular second baseman. There is a chance they might eat the final year of his contract but I think he'll return as a designated hitter and back up second baseman. Jim Leyland likes the scrappy Rhymes but I think his ultimate role will be backup infielder. Third baseBrandon Inge is in the final year of his contract and Jhonny Peralta is in his final guaranteed year. There is little chance that the Tigers will exercice Peralta's $ 7 million option. They may try to bring him back at a reduced salary, but I think there is a better chance that they re-sign Inge. Although his range has declined since he hurt his knees last year, Inge is still the superior fielder and there is not much difference between the two offensively. ShortstopPeralta is playing shortstop at the moment, but is not a good defender at that position so I doubt he's a real option there for next year. Danny Worth is a strong defender but I don't know if he'll hit well enough to be a regular. The Tigers have long believed that Ramon Santiago does not have the durability to be a regular so, he'll continue as a backup and a very good one. I suspect, they will push hard to obtain a shortstop in a trade. Right fieldUntil recently, Brennan Boesch was once the most appealing option in right field but it's hard to know what to make of a player who hit like Vladimir Guerrero in the first half and a double-A hitter since the all-star break. Whether or not he can make the adjustments down the stretch will determine whether he'll go into next season as a starting corner outfielder. They certainly need a young left-handed hitter badly, so he'll be one of the players to watch the rest of the season. The injury to Magglio Ordonez means that his $15 million option for 2011 will not automatically vest. They may try to sign him at a lower salary but, given that his agent is Scott Boras, that won't happen easily. He'll probably be a late off-season signing and there is a good season the Tiger swill be heavily involved in that drama. How hard they'll push may depend on Boesch. Center fieldAustin Jackson has been one of the few consistent bright spots this season and should be the starting center fielder for years to come. Left fieldJohnny Damon is finishing a one year deal and probably won't be a top priority in the off-season. It's not that he has been bad, but he'll be 37 next year and the market for 37-year-old designated hitters is not strong. I think the Tigers will try hard to obtain a left-handed corner outfielder from outside the organization.
Self promotion is one of the necessary evils of a self published book, so I'm going to post another review of my book Beyond Batting Average. This time, Charles Euchner, author of Nine Innings and other books was kind enough to say a few words. Here is what he had to say: Mathematicians see beauty and truth in numbers. They see an inner logic, a simplicity that captures life's ineffable complexity. Baseball fans have always loved numbers too. As a kid -- before ESPN and regional sports networks -- I remember studying the box scores to recreate the previous day's games. (I wish box scores still abbreviated the long names of players like this: "Ystrzski.") But the PC and the Internet have brought baseball statistics to a sublime new height, which makes my youthful number-gazing seem as sophisticated as Hop On Pop. In Beyond Batting Average, Lee Panas brings baseball's bold new world of statistical analysis to life. He is comprehensive, clear, and even clever. He examines every aspect of the game -- hitting, pitching, fielding, special situations, team-building -- with fairness and enthusiasm. The task is not simple, because statistics can lie as well as reveal hidden truths. Like other serious baseball people, Panas is on a mission, to find baseball's digital version of the Holy Grail. But he also understands that the game changes constantly, so that Grail will forever elude our reach. Change and constancy, of course, are two values we baseball fans embrace. Let's all get up and give Lee Panas a wave around the stadium (I know some purists loathe waves, but I love 'em) for his all-star effort. --Charles Euchner, author, The Last Nine Innings
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