Monday, September 12, 2011

Where Were You the Last Time the Tigers Won Ten in a Row?

Where were you the last time the Tigers won ten games in a row?  Manager Jim Leyland was a 23-year-old catcher for the Montgomery Rebels of the Southern League.  General Manager Dave Dombrowski was a twelve year-old boy attending Crab Orchard Jr. High School in Palos Heights, Illinois.  Personally, I was a five-year-old fan following the Tigers for the first time.  From September 9-21, 1968, the Tigers won 11 games in a row.

Forty-three years later, the Tigers have again won their tenth in a row, a 14-4 rout of the White Sox.  The last time the Tigers faced the Pale Hose on September 4, they scored 18 runs on 25 hits in Comerica Park.  Tonight, the White Sox staff held the Tigers to just 21 hits.  So, that's 32 runs on 46 hits in two game versus their central division rivals.

Ryan Raburn led the Bengal attack with four hits, including a double and a home runn.  Delmon Young added three hits.  Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta had two hits apiece, but those four do that every night.

Rick Porcello, whose father Fred was 12 the last time the Tigers won ten in a row,  allowed three runs on six hits and three walks in 6 2/3 innings.  As usual, he was not over powering (just three strikeouts)  but had the White Sox pounding the ball into the dirt and recorded 14 outs on ground balls.

You might be surprised to learn that the Tigers are 19-9 in games that Porcello has started.  Of course, they have given him an average of six runs per start, the fourth best run support in the American League.  Conversely, Doug Fister has a league low 2.8 runs of support per game.   

Justin Verlander, who has picked up his team so many times this year pitching the day after a Tigers loss, will get a chance to extend the winning streak to 11 games tomorrow night.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Tigers Sweep Away AL Central

The Tigers edged the Twins 2-1 today to complete their third consecutive three-game sweep of an AL Central rival.  They previously brushed aside the White Sox and Indians.  This one didn't come easy though.  After scoring two runs in the first inning, the Tigers were held scoreless by Twins starter Scott Diamond and reliever Jim Hoey for the rest of the game.  However, the Begals pulled it out thanks to another strong performance by Doug Fister. 

No stranger to lack of run support, Fister pitcher seven shutout innings allowing three hits and two walks.  In his last five starts, Fister has posted a 0.74 ERA and 36/4 K/BB ratio in 36 2/3 innings.  He must think he is Cliff Lee or something.  To say that the acquisition of Fister has worked out well for the Tigers so far would be the understatement of the year.  He has turned a shaky rotation into one that should be able to match any American League opponent in post-season. 

Delmon Young, another late-season addition, also continued to make a contribution.  His RBI-double in the first inning produced one of only two Tigers runs today.  While he has his shortcomings, Young has filled in nicely for the injured Brennan Boesch with a .305 batting average and .476 slugging average in 25 games as a Tiger.

Jose Valverde didn't get one of those shut down saves today.  He allowed two base runners and a run in the ninth, but managerd to close it out for his 43rd save in 43 save opportunuities. He now holds the Tigers record for most saves in a season.  The previous record was set by Todd Jones with 42 in 2000.  The only other pitcher on any team to have that many saves in a single season without a blown save was Eric Gagne with 55 in 2003.  

The Tigers are on quite a roll. The nine game winning streak is their longest since May 14-24, 1984.  They haven't had a ten-game streak since 1968.  They will attempt to reach ten games versus the White Sox tomorrow night. 

Some of the statistics for this post were abstracted from Baseball-Reference

Saturday, September 10, 2011

2011 Fan Scouting Report

For the ninth year, Tom Tango is conducting his fan scouting report on fielding skills. The survey is a very valuable resource, so I'm encouraging all knowledgeable fans who watch a lot of Detroit Tigers games to participate. The survey asks fans to rate the fielding skills of players on their favorite teams just based on observation. You will be asked not to use any stats at all and also not to vote based on what somebody else told you. Just use your own eyes as if you were a scout.  Past results were very interesting and informative, but a large sample size is needed in order for them to be useful again this year. Some of the results appear in the Bill James Handbook which comes out every November and also FanGraphs. So, I urge all of you to complete the ballot.

Giving Victor Martinez Credit for Situational Hitting

When a team is losing, fans usually talk about how they never hit with runners in scoring  position.  When a team is winning like the Tigers have been recently, everyone wants to talk about their great situational hitting.  One man in particular who is getting praise for his ability to hit with runners in scoring position is designated hitter Victor Martinez.

Many fans complain that statistics like on base percentage, slugging average and OPS don't address situational hitting. Traditional fans like to use Runs Batted In, but that is a team dependent statistic.  A player has more or less opportunity to drive in runs depending on who is batting in front of him.

Other fans point to batting average with runners in scoring position, but that is based on a limited number of plate appearances.  It also doesn't consider the number of outs, the specific base runners (e.g. bases loaded versus second base only) or the type of hit (single, double, triple or home run).  It also ignores a player's performance when no runners are in scoring position. 

What we want is a statistic which gives a player credit for everything he does including situational hitting.  Batting RunsBatting Runs Above Average by the 24 Base/Out States (RE24) - found at Baseball-Reference - does just that.   In the past, I have discussed just plain Batting Runs  (see the bottom section of the linked article).  Batting Runs is an estimate of how many runs a player contributed to his team beyond what an average hitter would have contributed in his place.   RE24 is similar to Batting Runs except that it uses base/out states in the calculation.  An example of a base/out state is "runners at first and third and one out".  There are 24 possible base/out states and RE24 takes all of them into consideration.

In the calculation of Batting Runs, a double with the bases loaded and two outs counts the same (0.770 runs) as a double with the bases empty and no outs. On the other hand, RE24 counts the bases loaded double more than the bases empty double (2.544 versus 0.632) because it does more to increase the expected runs scored in the inning.

RE24 for one at bat is the difference between run expectancy at the beginning and end of a play.  For example, suppose Martinez bats with a runner on first and one out. In that situation, we would expect 0.556 runs to score by the end of the inning.  Assume that Martinez then doubles, putting runners on second and third with one out. In that situation, we would expect 1.447 runs to score by the end of the inning. Therefore, Martinez's double is worth 0.891 runs.

Summing RE24 over all of a batter’s plate appearances yields his season total RE24. For
example, Martinez has a RE24 of 39.5 this year.  So, by that measure, he has contributed about 40 runs above what an average batter would have been expected to contribute given the same opportunities. This is much higher than his 20.3 Batting Runs, which means that Martinez has been extremely good in situations with high run expectancy and has contributed more to his team’s runs than Batting Runs indicates.  Indeed, we can estimate that he has contributed an extra 19 runs with his situational hitting, which is a lot.

Table 1 below shows the top ten batters in the American League in terms of RE24 in 2011.  RE24. Miguel Cabrera is second to Jose Bautista in both Batting Runs and RE24.  While Martinez is only 17th in the league in Batting Runs, he is fifth in RE24.

The Tigers have 66.7 Batting Runs as a team this year and their team RE24 is 61.1.  So, their situational hitting performance has not significantly helped or hurt them.  Their individual RE24 leaders (Table 2) are no surprise.  Regardless of how you cut the data, Cabrera, Martinez, Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta are the clear offensive leaders.

What is interesting is that Martinez is so far ahead of the rest of the team in RE24 minus BtRuns.  This shows that Martinez has added more with his situational hitting than any other Tiger.  The majority of his teammates actually look slightly less productive when you add situational performance into the equation.


Table 1: AL RE24 Leaders

Player
Team
BtRuns
RE24
RE24-BtRuns
Bautista
TOR
60.6
59.2
-1.4
Cabrera
DET
57.2
56.3
-0.9
Ellsbury
BOS
34.7
50.2
15.5
Gonxalez
BOS
47.0
44.9
-2.1
Martinez
DET
20.0
39.5
19.5
Granderson
NY
33.9
38.3
4.4
Ortiz
BOS
42.8
36.1
-6.7
Gordon
KC
33.1
33.8
0.7
Napoli
TEX
29.0
33.6
4.6
Cano
NY
20.3
30.7
10.4


Table 2: Tigers Ranked by RE24


Player
BtRuns
RE24
RE24-BtRuns
Cabrera
57.2
56.3
-0.9
Martinez
20.0
39.5
19.5
Avila
32.6
28.4
-4.2
Peralta
18.7
14.3
-4.4
Boesch
10.9
9.1
-1.8
Young
1.8
2.7
0.9
Betemit
3.0
2.6
-0.4
Jackson
-5.5
-1.7
3.8
Dirks
-1.3
-4.3
-3
Kelly
-9.6
-7.0
2.6
Santiago
-2.6
-9.1
-6.5
Raburn
-9.0
-12.2
-3.2
Ordonez
-12.6
-18.3
-5.7
Inge
-19.8
-22.7
-2.9

Friday, September 09, 2011

Surging Tigers Beat Twins 8-4

When Brad Penny allowed four runs in the first inning, we were not worried.  Not with the way the Tigers are playing right now.  This is the same team which came back from an 8-1 deficit to beat the White Sox in a recent Penny start.  Sure enough, they came back again to win 8-4 thanks to a couple of three run rallies.   

A three-run homer by Alex Avila in the second cut the deficit to 4-3.  They put up another three spot in the fourth thanks to an RBI triple by Wilson Betemit and a two-run blast by Ramon Santiago.  Meanwhile, five Tigers relievers - Dan Schlereth, Ryan Perry, Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde held the Twins scoreless for eight innings and the Tigers won going away.

After losing to the Twins on August 17th the Tigers were 7 games over .500, were just two games ahead of the second-place Indians and had given up more runs than they had scored for the season.  Over the past three weeks the Tigers have gone 17-4 by outscoring opponents 136-80.  They have also won seven in a row and, assuming the Indians hold on to beat the White Sox, the Tigers will have a 9 1/2-game lead.

What an amazing run.  The Tigers really do seem unbeatable right now.

Monday, September 05, 2011

Fister Punches Out Indians, Tigers Win 4-2

You know I've been waiting to use that corny headline for a while, but today it's appropriate.  Doug Fister is not known for strikeouts - just 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings coming into today - but this afternoon he punched out a career high 13 batters.  Fister always has good control and generally keeps the ball down, but today he appeared to have a little extra movement on all his pitches.

The six-foot-eight Fister was almost un-hittable allowing just two runs on four hits and one walk in eight innings.  One of the runs was unearned due to his own throwing error.  The other came on a home run by Indians right fielder Kosuke Fukodome in the eighth inning.  Fister now has an outstanding 2.64 ERA and 36/3 K/BB ratio in 44 1/3 innings as a Tiger.

Fryman - Alexander - Fister

Fister may be the best in-season pitching addition to the Tigers since Doyle Alexander in 1987.  Alexander was acquired from the Atlanta Braves on August 12 of that year for young fire baller John Smoltz.  Alexander proceeded to go 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch and helped the Tigers win the division title on the final weekend of the season.

One can question whether the trade was worth it.  On one hand, it gave us the best Tigers pennant race of my lifetime and they would not have won it without him.  On the other hand, Smoltz went on to have a tremendous career with the Braves.  From a WAR perspective, it was a horrible trade.  However, my question is how good would Smoltz have been and how many division titles would the dismal Tigers of that period won with him?  My guess is not many if any.  I've always considered it a good trade for the Tigers on that basis.

Another late season acquisition was Woodie Fryman, who was acquired of the waiver wire from the Phillies in August, 1972.  After an undistinguished career with the Phillies, the southpaw went 10-3 with a 2.06 ERA in 16 games for the Tigers.  He helped the Tigers beat the Red Sox by a half game in the strike-shortened 1972 season.

Fister may be following in the footsteps of Alexander and Fryman this season, but the difference is that he's not a one-year fix.  At just 27 years old, he is expected to be a fixture in the Tigers rotation for the next few years.

Sunday, September 04, 2011

Tigers Sweep White Sox






1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
R
H
E
Chicago
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
9
3
Detroit
1
0
3
5
0
7
0
2
0
18
24
1

The line score above tells it all. The Tigers didn't just sweep the White Sox under the rug. They swept them clear out of Detroit and probably out of the pennant race. Tonight's game was nothing like yesterday when they came back from a seven run deficit to beat the White Sox 9-8. Tonight, the White Sox looked like a demoralized team as the Tigers mauled then 18-2 to complete the three-game sweep.

The Tigers put on an amazing offensive display tonight.  They had 24 hits, 22 of them by the sixth inning.  As Dan Dickerson pointed out on Twitter, they struck out 12 times which means there were just 36 balls in play.  That comes out to a .667 BABIP.  That's probably not sustainable!  Every Tiger starter had at least one hit tonight and everyone but Ryan Raburn had at least two.  Awesome Alex Avila led the attack with four hits.

Not to be forgotten was a strong performance by Max Scherzer tonight.  He went seven shutout innings allowing just five hits and walking nobody.  He must have loved all that run support.  Hopefully, they saved some runs for Doug "no run support" Fister tomorrow. 

The Tigers now go to Cleveland for a three game series starting tomorrow afternoon.  If they take two of three there, that would pretty much wrap it up I think.  Here are the current standings:









Team
W
L
PCT
GB
Detroit
78
62
.557
----
Cleveland
70
67
.511
6 ½
Chicago
68
69
.496
8 ½
Minnesota
58
81
.417
19 ½
Kansas City
58
83
.411
20 1/2

One Run Makes a Big Difference

If you look at runs scored and runs allowed, there isn't a big difference between the Tigers in 2010 and 2011.  Last year, the Tigers scored 751 runs and allowed 743 for a run differential of +8.  This year, they have scored 639 runs and given up 628 for a +11 run differential. A run differential of 10 is worth one win on average, so you would expect both teams to be one game above .500.  In actuality, this year's squad is much better than that:

2010 81-81 .500
2011 77-62 .554

So, two teams with almost the same run differential have a .054 difference in winning percentage.  How does that happen? Often times such a discrepancy can be explained by a team's performance in close games, so let's look at that.  The Tigers have been much better in one run games this year than last year:

2010 16-26 .381
2011 24-15 .615

That's a 9 1/2 game difference between 2010 and 2011 which is substantial.  Here's what would would have happened if they played .500 ball in one-run games both years:

2010 86-76 .531
2011 73-66 .525

The winning percentages would have been almost identical, actually slightly better in 2010.  So, the difference between 2010 and 2011 can be explained by performance in one-run games.  Why does a team perform well in one-run games? 

In 1999, Baseball Prospectus co-founder Rany Jazayerli and former Baseball Prospectus writer and current researcher for an MLB team Keith Woolner studied the relationship between bullpens and records in one-run games.  They discovered that teams with good bullpens tended to exceed their expected record in one-run games while teams with poor bullpens were more likely to under perform in one-run games.  Their study does not explain all the discrepancies between actual and expected win totals, but bullpen quality is the biggest factor that has been found to date.

Now, the Tigers bullpen has had problems getting through the middle innings this year, but they have had no problem closing out games.  Jose Valverde is 40 for 40 in save opportunities which has probably boosted their record in one-run games. 

So, is Valverde's perfection in save situations the reason they are better this year?  That's probably part of it.  It could also be better clutch hitting, better managing, better luck or any number of other reasons.  Whatever the reason, it goes to show that there is not necessarily much difference between a .500 team and a team on pace to win 90 games.  Sometimes, it's just a run here and there. 

Saturday, September 03, 2011

Tigers Come Back to Stun White Sox

It's pretty hard for an analytical writer like myself to capture the excitement of game like today's 9-8 victory over the White Sox, but I need to say something.  I couldn't watch the game because the Red Sox were on Fox and all other games were blacked out even for those who paid for Extra Innings.  But you guys already know about that Saturday afternoon foolishness.  As a result, I listened to the game on the radio.

The Tigers were down 8-1 in the fifth and it was a beautiful day out, so I went outside to do some yard work.  I checked in periodically and noticed that the Tigers were chipping away.    They scored three in the bottom of the fifth, when red hot Austin Jackson (four for five on the day) tripled in a run and Delmon Young hit a two-run homer.  Third baseman Wilson Betemit belted another homer in the sixth to make 8-5 and I started paying more attention. 

Then there was a rain delay in the eighth, so I went out to get a pizza.  I came back to hear shortstop Jhonny Peralta single in a run to close the gap to 8-6.  Meanwhile, the Tigers bullpen was doing a great job keeping the Tigers in the game - three scoreless innings by David Pauley and one perfect frame by rookie Luis Marte.

White Sox closer Sergio Santos came in to pitch the ninth.  Santos has been outstanding this year, but the way the game and the season has been going, you sensed it wasn't over yet.  With one out, Jackson lined a triple down the left field line.  Ryan Raburn, who earlier entered the game as a pinch hitter for the left-handed Andy Dirks, followed with a long blast down the left field line to tie the game at eight.  With two outs, big Miguel Cabrera then launched a shot over the left field fence for a 9-8 walk-off victory.

As it turned out, Tigers radio broadcaster Dan Dickerson did such a great job capturing the drama of the ninth inning that is was almost good that the game was not on television.  This was one of the most exciting comebacks in an important game the Tigers have made in my 44 years as a fan.  The game needed a great call and Dickerson gave it to us. 

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