Pitching Will Lead Giants to NL West Title

As opening day approaches, I'm making predictions for each of the six divisions in MLB.   I have projected won/loss records, runs scored (RS), runs allowed (RA) and run differential (RS-RA) for each team.  I don't have a complex formula to determine the results.  I just looked at last year's final numbers and moved teams up and down according to how much I thought they would regress or improve from last year to this year.

There never seems to to be a clear favorite in the NL West and this year is no exception.  In a division of mostly sub-par starting line-ups, pitching will ultimately decide the winner.  The Giants have one of the weakest line-ups in the majors, but their excellent pitching rotation will allow them to prevail over the more balanced Diamondbacks.

Projected NL West Standings

Team	W	L	RS	RA	RS-RA
San Francisco Giants	86	76	610	566	44
Arizona Diamondbacks	85	77	713	679	34
Colorado Rockies	81	81	780	780	0
San Diego Padres	76	86	607	651	-44
Los Angeles Dodgers	77	85	619	655	-36

Divisional Awards

MVP
Justin Upton, AZ
Troy Tulowitzki, COL
Buster Posey, SF

Cy Young
Clayton Kershaw, LA
Madison Bumgarner, SF
Tim Lincecum, SF

Breakout Players
Cameron Maybin, SD
Paul Goldschmidt, AZ
Michael Cudduyer, COL (Park effect)

Blogs

I won't waste time trying to give detailed analyses of teams I don't follow on a daily basis.  These blogs can tell you more about the teams than I can:

Giants 
McCovey Chronicles
Around The Fog Horn


Diamondbacks
AZ Snakepit
DBacks Venom


Rockies 
Purple Row
Rox Pile


San Diego Padres
Gaslamp Ball
Friar Forecast


Los Angeles Dodgers
True Blue LA
Dodger Dugout

Tigers Option Tyler Stohr, Reassign Darin Downs

The Tigers "cut" two more pitchers from their major league camp this morning - relievers Tyler Stohr and Darin Downs.  The right-handed Stohr was optioned to Double-A Erie and the left-handed Downs was reassigned to their minor league camp.  Neither move was a surprise.  The Tigers still need to drop 19 more players prior to opening day. 

The 25-year-old Stohr posted a 3.79 ERA in 57 innings pitched for Single-A Lakeland and and Double-A Erie last year.  Baseball America ranked Stohr as the Tigers 17th best prospect of 2012.   He was the sixth round pick in the Tigers infamous reliever draft of 2008.  While the reliever strategy didn't work out too well, the Tigers did draft catcher Alex Avila in the fifth round that year.

The 27-year-old Downs was a spring training invitee, who pitched in the Florida organization in 2011.  He had a 4.66 ERA in 112 innings as a swing man working at Double-A and Triple-A.  Everything you wanted to know or didn't want to know about Downs can be found in this brief video.

Casey Crosby Optioned to Toledo

The Tigers announced earlier today that they have optioned pitcher Casey Crosby to Triple-A Toledo.  Cosby had been in competition for the team's fifth starter job, but struggled with his control this spring allowing six walks and four runs in 5 2/3 innings.  Crosby is one of the Tigers top prospects - ranked number four by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospect Nation.  The 23-year-old left hander posted a 4.10 ERA with a 121/77 K/BB ratio in 132 innings at Double-A Erie last season.

With the Tigers number one prospect Jacob Turner sidelined with shoulder tendinitis, we can probably assume that he won't begin the season in the starting rotation. Thus, the fifth spot appears to be up for grabs between four young southpaws - Duane Below,  Andy Oliver, Drew Smyly and Adam Wilk.   Wilk, Oliver and Smyly are scheduled to pitch on Saturday.

The Tigers are also said to have interest in veteran starter John Lannan, who pitches for the Nationals. They may not have been too impressed if they scouted him today though, as he gave up six runs on seven hits in four innings against the Yankees this afternoon.  Lannan is a soft-tossing lefty who had a 3.70 ERA in 184 2/3 innings last season.  His best asset is his ability to induce ground balls as evidenced by his 54.1% ground ball rate last year.  With big Miguel Cabrera at third and generally poor infield defense all around, Detroit might not be the best environment for a left-handed ground ball pitcher.       

David Pauley Released and Other Notes

The Tigers made their first moves of the spring today including the release of reliever David Pauley.  Pauley came into camp with a chance to win a spot in the Tigers bullpen, but he struggled in early games just as he had last summer.  After coming over from Seattle in the Doug Fister trade, Pauley allowed 26 hits and posted a 5.95 ERA in 19 2/3 innings for the Tigers.  The 28-year-old right hander is now a free agent.

The Tigers also announced the first round of  "cuts",  or more appropriately - reassignments.  Catchers Rob Brantly, Curt Casali, Patrick Leyland and James McCann. third baseman and top hitting prospect Nick Castellanos and outfielder Justin Henry were all reassigned to the minors.  At the same time, outfielder Avisail Garcia was optioned to Double-A Erie and infielder Hernan Perez to Single-A Lakeland.

None of the moves were surprising.  It was becoming clear that Pauley wasn't going to make the team and none of the others are close to being ready for the majors.  Teams always invite a bunch of catchers to spring training because there are so many pitchers in camp.  If I recall correctly, they usually hang on to most of them longer than this.  It's not a big deal either way though.  They can always bring one of them back if they need an extra catcher for pitchers to throw to on a given day.

In one other move, designated hitter Victor Martinez was transferred to the 60-day disabled list.

Fifth Impressions

The Tigers played to a tie for the third straight day.  This time, it was a 7-7 10-inning game versus the Mets.  Three pitchers vying for the fifth starter job appeared in the game with varying results.  Andy Oliver made a good impression with four scoreless innings at the end of the game.  Jacob Turner made a far less favorable impression allowing six runs in 1 2/3 innings.  Drew Smyly started the game allowing one run in two innings.  

Newhouser Dominates Single-Season Strikeout Lists

In the previous post, I looked at the Tigers career strikeout leaders according to the K+ and Adjusted K statistics.  Today, I'll do the same thing for single seasons.   Thanks again to Raphy at High Heat Stats for developing the strikeout normalization formulas.

The K+ metric tells us how a pitcher's strikeout total compared to league average.  For example, Justin Verlander had a 147 K+ in 2009 which means his strikeout rate was 47% better than league average.  His Adjusted K total that year was 187 which is an estimate of his strikeout total assuming that the league average strikeouts per inning was .531 (the all-time MLB rate).  The Adjusted K number doesn't tell us a lot about Verlander in 2009, but it's useful in comparing pitchers across years.

As shown in Table 1 below, the Tigers single-season K+ leader is Hall of Fame left hander Hal Newhouser at 199 in 1946.  That means his strikeout rate was about twice as high as the league average that year.   Newhouser's 1943 and 1945 seasons rank second and third and his 1944 season was also in the top 15.  Other pitchers appearing multiple times are Tommy Bridges (six times between 1931-1943) and  Bob Newsom (1941 and 1939). 

Table 1: Tigers Single-Season K+ Leaders

Pitcher	Year	IP	Actual K	Expected K	K+
Hal Newhouser	1946	293	275	138	199
Hal Newhouser	1943	196	144	78	183
Hal Newhouser	1945	313	212	120	177
Bobo Newsom	1941	250	175	100	175
Bobo Newsom	1939	246	164	98	168
Tommy Bridges	1931	173	105	63	165
Tommy Bridges	1935	274	163	99	164
Tommy Bridges	1939	198	129	79	164
Tommy Bridges	1943	192	124	77	161
Syl Johnson	1923	176	93	58	161
Tommy Bridges	1936	295	175	109	161
Ted Gray	1951	197	131	82	160
Hal Newhouser	1944	312	187	119	158
Tommy Bridges	1940	198	133	85	156
Mickey Lolich	1969	281	271	174	156

Data source: Baseball-Reference.com


Table 2 shows that Newhouser also leads with 309 Adjusted K in 1946 and 294 Adjusted K in 1945.  Mickey Lolich's 271 Adjusted K in 1971 ranks third.  Looking at the entire top 15, Newhouser appears four times and Bridges, Lolich and Newsom two times apiece.

Table 2: Tigers Single-Season Adjusted Strikeout Leaders

Pitcher	Year	IP	Actual K	Expected K	Adjusted K
Hal Newhouser	1946	293	275	138	309
Hal Newhouser	1945	313	212	120	294
Mickey Lolich	1971	376	308	226	271
Hal Newhouser	1944	312	187	119	261
Tommy Bridges	1936	295	175	109	252
Tommy Bridges	1935	274	163	99	239
Bobo Newsom	1941	250	175	100	233
Mickey Lolich	1969	281	271	174	232
Bill Donovan	1903	307	187	132	231
Jack Morris	1983	294	232	159	228
Denny McLain	1968	336	280	223	224
Hal Newhouser	1947	285	176	119	223
Bobo Newsom	1939	246	164	98	219
Mickey Lolich	1972	327	250	200	217
George Mullin	1903	321	170	138	210

Data source: Baseball-Reference.com