Second Half Thoughts

With the "month-long" all star break finally over, here are some random thoughts on the second half:

Offense

The Tigers have been getting on base most of the year, but they have not hit for enough power, especially not with runners on base.  They showed signs prior to the break, that they were pulling out of their slugging slump.  First base baseman Prince Fielder and designated hitter Delmon Young led the charge.  They'll need to keep it up and they'll need help from right fielder Brennan Boesch, shortstop Jhonny Peralta and utility man Ryan Raburn.  I'm not throwing Alex Avila in there.  He's been beat up bad and still hitting pretty well for a catcher.  The Avila/Gerald Laird combo has been fine.  

If the Tigers struggle out of the gate, look at them to make a move to improve their offense.  I'm guessing that outfielder Carlos Quentin will be a prime target.  

Defense

The Tigers have the worst defense in baseball and it has been embarrassing to watch.  They don't have the range or fielding skill to ever be good, but they need to do better.  Many of their miscues appear to have been due to concentration rather than ability and they need to cut down on those types of errors.  I have a suspicion they will pick up Placido Polanco and use him at second base for the stretch run.  However, he would only be a marginal improvement over what they have now. 

Starters

The Tigers staff has received a lot of criticism for inconsistency, but I actually think they've been OK considering the poor fielding support.  Nothing more needs to be said about ace Justin Verlander.  Beyond that, Max Scherzer has his awful days which raise his ERA, but he has more good days than bad days and appears to be getting better as the season progresses.  Rick Porcello is OK as a fourth man and Drew Smyly and Jacob Turner should be able to handle the fifth starter job.

I think the key is Doug Fister..  He's been injured and re-injured and has not really gotten going.  A lot was expected from him and is still expected.  They might have to make a move for another starter if Fister does not look good in his next few starts.  

Bullpen

The Tigers bullpen is as deep as it has been in a long time.  With Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke Octavio Dotel and Brayan Villarreal, they are all set from the the sixth to the eighth inning and lefty Duane Below is an excellent long man.  The weakest link is closer Jose Valverde.  He's been better as of late, but doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.  He'll have to be a little more dominant in the second half.  Either that or Jim Leyland needs to try someone else in the ninth inning role.    

Competition

They have plenty of time to catch up in a division which lacks an elite team.  The Indians are hanging in there, but they have a weak starting staff and don't have enough offense to overcome it.  In fact, they have allowed 29 more runs than they have scored which does not bode well for the second half.  Needless to say, the Royals and Twins don't have much of a chance. 

There is one opponent, however, that looks much stronger than they did when the season started.  The White Sox have received a big boost this year from some surprise players - pitchers Jake Peavy and Chris Sale, slugging designated hitter Adam Dunn and more recently a rejuvenated Kevin Youkilis. They are legitimate and I wouldn't expect them to quickly fold.

Outlook

The Tigers still have the best high-end talent in the division, but they dug a hole for themselves with a lackluster first half and can no longer be expected run away with the division any time they want.  They are going to have to play very good ball the rest of the way in order to beat out the White Sox.  They will have to field better and slug more and they'll need more out of Fister if they want to keep playing in October.  

I believe it will be a close race between Detroit and Chicago and I'll go with my heart and pick the Tigers.  However, I've had an unusually hard time staying positive with this group this year and I still fear them blowing the division on a terrible fielding play late in the year. 

Strikeouts Are Way Up in 2012

You may have heard by now that the Tigers pitching staff has the most strikeouts by the all-star break of any team in American League history.  When the Tigers staff led by Max Scherzer struck out nine Royals on Sunday, they reached a league-leading 715 strikeouts for the first half.  The Yankees are second with 713.  Both teams surpassed the previous high of 710 set by New York in 2001.

More than a third (35%) of the strikeouts by the Tigers staff belong to Justin Verlander (128) and Scherzer (121)  Verlander and Scherzer are first and third in the league in punch outs with Mariners ace Felix Hernandez (122).  The bullpen has also made a strong contribution as Joaquin Benoit, Brayan Villarreal and Octavio Dotel have each struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings. 

While the Tigers strikeout record is impressive, the bigger story is the high strikeout rate across all of baseball.  MLB pitchers have struck out an astonishing 7.5 per nine innings which is the highest K rate in baseball history by a fairly wide margin.  The previous high was 7.1 in 2010 and 2011.  If it keeps up that would mean an increase of more than 5% over any other season.

The figure below shows that this is not just a one year anomaly.  Strikeouts have been on the rise for the past few decades jumping from 4.8 in 1980 to 7.5 this year, a startling 56% increase.  As recent as 2003, the strikeout rate was just 6.4 per nine innings.  So, we are seeing slightly more than one strikeout per game than we did ten years ago.  That is a big difference. 


 Data Source: Baseball-Reference.com

What is the reason for the dramatic increase in strikeouts?  There are are few possible explanations including:

• Pitchers are throwing harder than they did even a few years ago.  It used to be rare for pitchers to throw 98, 99, 100+ MPH.  Now, it seems like every relief staff has at least one pitcher who can do that. 

• Over time, batters have been swinging for home runs rather than being content in making contact, although that probably wouldn't explain the more recent jump since 2003.  

• Umpires could be playing a role too.  It's possible that in an effort to speed up the game that MLB has encouraged umpires to increase their strike zones.  This could also be occurring as a reaction to the performance-enhancing drug controversy.

• Offense usually dominates after expansion and then pitching tends to get better as we move further from expansion.  There has been no expansion for 14 years, so you would expect pitching to be getting ahead of offense.

Whatever the reasons, the game is rapidly changing in the direction of more strikeouts and the Tigers are one of the leaders of the explosion.

Three Surprises of the First Half

As the Tigers enter the four-day all-star break, I'm going to list the three surprises of the first half:

Austin Jackson

Who guessed that Austin Jackson would go into the all-star break second in the league in batting average (.332) and on-base percentage (.408), eighth in slugging (.545) and fifth in OPS (.953)? I'm betting nobody came close.  Can he keep up the pace?  His batting average will likely go down when his .420 BABIP drops to a more reasonable level, but even if he settles in as a .280 to .290 hitter, he should still have an outstanding season.

While the batting average may drop, much of Jackson's improvement should be sustainable.  His Isolated Power has risen 75% from .125 in 2011 to .218 this year.  Some fans consider the home runs to be the most surprising development of his season, but scouts had previously predicted a power boost for Jackson, so I think this is a real change.

More surprising to me than the increase in power is his improved walk  and strikeout rates.  He has increased his walks by 34% while decreasing his strikeouts by 17%.  That would mean about 20 extra walks and 30 fewer strikeouts over a full season which is a lot.  It does not take a large sample size for these particular rates to stabilize.  Thus, I think he has genuinely reached a new level of plate discipline.

 I'm thinking Ajax might have a final line of something like .285/.370/.470.  Combine that with his base running and his outstanding defensive skills and you've got an all-star caliber center fielder.  If the all-star game is supposed to be based on the first half of the year, then he should be there this year for sure.

Quintin Berry

In a couple of months, Quintin Berry has gone from career minor leaguer and organizational filler to a key cog at the top of the Tigers line-up.  Berry enters the break batting .299 with a stellar .388 OBP and is tied for the league lead with five triples.  His 1.2 Wins Above Replacement is fourth on the team trailing only Jackson, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.  After 41 games and 164 plate appearances, it's getting harder to pass this off as a lucky hot streak.

It's probably still too early to get overly optimistic about Berry's future.  His .408 BABIP will drop as will his batting average and he has little power.  Despite his speed, he is not a great defender, although certainly far better than the likes of Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch.

Berry has his shortcomings, but the one thing which separates him from the Nook Logans and Josh Andersons is his ability to draw walks.  He has drawn 17 free passes in 164 plate Appearances this year, a rate consistent with his minor league career.  If he can keep that up, he can build a career for himself at the major league level as a platoon player or fourth outfielder or maybe even a starter on some teams.  One of those teams could be next year's Tigers if things break right. 

Brayan Villarreal

Right-handed reliever Brayan Villarreal has always had great stuff, but his performance took a step back in 2011.  He posted a 6.75 ERA and walked 10 batters in just 16 innings in a brief stint with the Tigers.  He didn't do much better with the Toledo MudHens where he  had a 5.05 ERA in 66 innings.

This year, Villarreal has emerged as the new Al Alburquerque of the Tigers bullpen.  He has dominated opposing hitters with 40 strikeouts and a 1.55 ERA in 29 innings pitched.  Manager Jim Leyland has been impressed enough that he now has confidence routinely using Villarreal in high-leverage situations.  The 25-year-old fire baller is showing no signs of letting up and could the team's closer of the future.

Honorable Mentions

Outfielder Andy Dirks got off to a great start batting .328/.379/.515 in 37 games before injuring his achilles.

Southpaw Duane Below has been a strong reliever with a 2.75 ERA and 25/4 K/BB ratio in 36 innings, but has typically been used in low-leverage situations.

Tigers Base Running Improving

In an earlier post, I used the Baseball Prospectus base running statistics to show that the Tigers were 28th out of 30 teams in base running through May.  At that time, base running had cost the Tigers about four runs (-3.9) compared to an average team.  With the emergence of speedy outfielder Quintin Berry near the top of the lineup and a somewhat more aggressive approach overall in recent games, I wanted to take another look at base running today.

To review, Baseball Prospectus tracks several different types of base running advancement:

• GAR (Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs) - Contribution of advancement on ground outs.

• SBR (Equivalent Stolen Base Runs) - contribution of stolen bases including runs subtracted for caught stealings and pickoffs.

• AAR (Equivalent Air Advancement Runs) - Contribution of base runners advancing on fly outs

• HAR (Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs) - contribution of runners taking the extra base on a hit: first to third on a single, second to home on a single, first to home on a double.

• OAR (Equivalent Other Advancement Runs) - contribution of other base running advancements - passed balls, wild pitches and balks (evidence shows that those events are not entirely randomly and are influenced by base runners to an extent).

• BRR (Equivalent Base Running Runs)- the sum of the five above statistics above or total base running contribution.

The Table below shows that the Tigers have improved in all facets of base running since the beginning of June.  For example, the run contribution from taking extra bases on hits went from -2.64 runs below average in April/May to 0.45 runs above average in June/July.  For the season, they are at -2.19 in that category. 

Table 1: Base Running Runs Above Average

Advancement	Through May	June 1 – July 2	Total
GAR	-1.02	+0.89	-0.13
SBR	+0.92	+0.11	+1.03
AAR	-0.34	+1.61	+1.27
HAR	-2.64	+0.45	-2.19
OAR	-0.84	+0.14	-0.70
BRR	-3.92	+3.22	-0.70

 Overall, Detroit is now at -0.7 base running runs as of last night's game, which moves them up to 17th in baseball.  This is an improvement of 3.2 runs from April/May to June/July.  That may not sound like a huge huge number of runs, but it is the third highest jump of any team behind only the Phillies (7.2 runs) and Braves (4.2 runs).

It's hard to know exactly who is doing it for the Tigers since monthly splits are not available.  I was only able to do splits for teams because I had saved the April/May totals in my previous post.  However, it probably comes to no big surprise that the Tigers base running has improved if you are watching the games.  The leaders for the season are:

Jackson 2.2
Berry 2.1
Dirks 1.5
Santiago 1.0
Kelly 1.0

I don't want to overstate the importance of base running.  The variation in team runs created by base running is small in comparison to that created by hitting.  In fact, there is a difference of about 18 base running runs between the best (Atlanta 9.6) and worse (Kansas City -8.2) teams in baseball.  On the other hand the best hitting team has about 110 more batting runs than the worst hitting team.  Still, every little thing a team can do to score more runs is useful.  Thus, the Tigers recent base running improvement is encouraging.

How Bad has Brennan Boesch Been This Year?

A poster at MotownSports.com (TigerBomb13) asked today who had the most negative Wins Above Replacement (WAR) ever and was wondering whether Tigers right fielder Brennan Boesch had a chance to fall that far.  According to Baseball-Reference.com, there have been two players with -4.1 WAR since 1901: Jim Levey of the St. Louis Browns in 1933 and Jerry Royster of the Atlanta Braves in 1977.

How bad was Levey?  He batted .195/.237/.241 with a 24 OPS+ while playing 152 games at shortstop.  He actually did not lose any points for his defense (+0.1 defensive WAR) but he was so horrible offensively and played so much that he still hurt his team enough to be tied for number one.  Not only does Levey share the top (bottom) spot on this list, he also had the seventh worst WAR ever in 1931.

Royster was a little better offensively than Levey batting .216/.278/.288 with a 46 OPS+ as a utility infielder/outfielder.  You would think that a player who played five different positions would be a valuable piece on a roster.  Unfortunately, he did not play any of those positions well and accumulated -2.0 WAR with his defense alone.  Royster was not always that bad and managed to build a 16-year career getting as much as +2.1 WAR with the Padres in 1985.    

Boesch has not yet reached the depths of Levey and Royster, but is currently last in the majors with -1.8 WAR thanks to a .232/.269/.346 batting line and a 67 OPS+.  As awful as he has been offensively , he has been just as bad defensively costing his team an estimated 10 runs with his glove.

Boesch probably won't play enough to challenge Levey and Royster if he continues at the same pace, but has a legitimate shot of breaking the Tigers record.  Jerry Morales accumulated the most negative WAR ever with -2.7 in 1979.  Boesch is seventh on the list and the worst in the past four decades. 

I don't want to single out Boesch for all the Tigers struggles this year though.  After all, Tigers fan favorite Ryan Raburn is in the bottom 20 with -1.5.  In case anyone was wondering, Delmon Young is looking pretty good in comparison at -0.8.  That's -4.1 WAR from just three players which tells us a lot about the Tigers season.

Rays Go Solo on Justin Verlander

This one was billed billed as a classic pitchers duel between two aces - right hander Justin Verlander for the Tigers and southpaw David Price of the Rays.  It did not quite turn out that way as Verlander was not sharp tonight and the Rays won 4-2.  Tampa Bay cracked three solo home runs off Verlander, two by left fielder Desmond Jennings and one by right fielder Ben Zobrist.

It took Verlander 120 pitches, but he continued his well-publicized streak of six or more innings per start.  He now has 59 consecutive starts of six or more innings, the fourth longest such streak since 1918 (the first year full seasons of box scores are available).  Tonight he passed Hall-of-Fame right hander Walter Johnson.  The only three ahead of Verlander are Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, and Catfish Hunter, who did their work in the 1980s or earlier.

The Tigers hitting star was designated hitter Delmon Young, who had a solo homer and a single in three trips.  Young now has 9 hits in his last 26 at bats over a span of six games.  The only other Tigers run came on a double by Ramon Santiago and two ground ball outs in the seventh.

The loss leaves the Tigers 4 1/2 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central.  With the White Sox up 13-7 late over the Yankees tonight, it could be up to five by the end of the night.  If the Tigers want to win any championship trophies in 2012, they better get moving soon.

How is Alex Avila Doing Defensively?

Tigers catcher Alex Avila is battling tendinitis in his knee and is not hitting as well as he did in 2011.  However, based on observation, his defense seems not to be suffering too much.  In this post, I will take a close look at the numbers.

The system used to evaluate catchers is complex and I'm not going to rehash the whole thing here.  If you want to see the details, you can read my earlier article.  I do want to give credit to others who inspired me with similar work in the past:  Sean Smith, Justin Inaz, Matt Klaasen and Mike Rogers.

First, remember that less than three months of defensive data is a relatively small sample size so you should use caution in interpreting the results.  Also keep in mind that these numbers do not capture everything that a catcher does.  For example, they say nothing about game calling or understanding of pitcher abilities and tendencies. I am only going to evaluate catchers based on what we can most easily measure - controlling the running game, pitch blocking and avoiding errors.

Table 1 contains data for all catchers with at least 300 innings through June 26.  That covers almost all of the starting catchers in the majors.  The CSRuns column gives us an estimation of how many runs each catcher saved/cost his team compared to the average catcher by controlling the running game.  It is based on stolen bases against and caught stealing.  Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero is the MLB leader with an estimated 6.7 runs saved over an average catcher.  Avila is tenth with 2.1 runs saved.  A negative sign before a number indicates that a catcher cost his team runs.  The worst receiver in this category is Rod Barajas who has cost the Pirates an estimated -5.9 runs. 

The next column (WPPBRuns) tells us how many runs catchers saved/cost their teams with pitch blocking or preventing passed balls and wild pitches.  Number one is Orioles backstop Matt Wieters with 3.5 runs saved. On the other hand, Wilin Rosario has cost the Rockies about four runs (-3.7).  Just like last year, Avila is a little below average on this statistic costing the Tigers  between one and two runs (-1.5) with pitch blocking.

The TERuns column tells us about throwing errors.  There is not a lot of variation between catchers here, but Phillies receiver Carlos Ruiz leads with 0.8 runs saved.  Conversely, Rosario has cost the Rockies -1.1 runs on throwing errors.  Avila is right around average (-0.2). 

The FERuns column indicates how many runs catchers have saved/cost their teams with fielding errors.  Again, there is not a of of variation.  There are three catchers tied with 0.5 runs saved.  The worst is Mets catcher Josh Thole (-1.2).  Avila is slightly above average on this measure saving the Tigers 0.3 runs.

The final column (CatchRuns) is the sum of the previous four columns.  It tells us how many runs catchers saved/cost their teams on the above items combined.  The leader is Montero who has saved Arizona more than nine runs (9.4).  The worst is Barajas who has cost the Pirates five runs .  Avila has saved the Tigers almost one run (0.7) with his defense.  That ranks him 13th among 26 qualifiers.

In summary, Avila has been good at controlling the running game and avoiding fielding errors and a little below average at pitch blocking and throwing errors.  Overall, he is in the middle of the pack among major league catchers defensively.


Table 1: Catcher Runs Saved/Cost through June 26, 2012

Player	Team	Inn	CSRuns	WPPBRuns	TERuns	FERuns	CatchRuns
Miguel Montero	ARI	517	6.7	2.2	-0.0	0.4	9.4
Carlos Ruiz	PHI	506	4.4	2.7	0.8	-1.1	6.8
Ryan Hanigan	CIN	393	3.3	3.3	-0.2	0.3	6.7
Matt Wieters	BAL	549	2.7	3.5	-0.8	-0.0	5.3
Kurt Suzuki	OAK	529	3.0	1.3	0.3	0.5	5.0
Yadier Molina	STL	562	2.3	1.4	0.3	0.5	4.4
John Buck	MIA	484	0.5	2.4	-0.6	0.4	2.7
Brian McCann	ATL	466	1.0	0.8	0.7	-0.1	2.4
Nick Hundley	SDP	451	2.4	0.3	-0.1	-0.1	2.4
Humberto Quintero	KCR	355	2.4	0.3	-0.8	0.3	2.2
A.J. Ellis	LAD	524	2.9	-1.0	-0.0	-0.0	1.8
Buster Posey	SFG	462	-0.6	2.1	-0.4	-0.1	1.1
Alex Avila	DET	389	2.1	-1.5	-0.2	0.3	0.7
J.P. Arencibia	TOR	494	1.4	-1.1	-0.1	-0.1	0.1
Jonathan Lucroy	MIL	322	-0.7	0.8	-0.3	0.3	-0.0
Josh Thole	NYM	363	-0.7	1.0	0.3	-1.2	-0.7
Jesus Flores	WSN	363	-0.8	-1.0	0.6	0.3	-0.9
Mike Napoli	TEX	371	-1.4	-0.1	0.3	-0.2	-1.4
Russell Martin	NYY	480	-0.1	-2.1	0.5	0.4	-1.4
Carlos Santana	CLE	436	1.9	-3.5	-0.4	0.4	-1.6
A.J. Pierzynski	CHW	530	0.3	-3.2	0.3	0.5	-2.2
Jose Molina	TBR	332	-1.6	-1.6	-0.3	0.3	-3.2
Wilin Rosario	COL	370	0.9	-3.7	-1.1	0.3	-3.6
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	BOS	444	-3.3	0.3	-0.4	-0.6	-4.1
Jason Castro	HOU	378	-2.3	-1.9	-0.8	0.3	-4.7
Rod Barajas	PIT	430	-5.9	0.4	0.1	0.4	-5.0

Data Source: Baseball-Reference