Rick Porcello Getting Left-Handed Batters Out

Tigers starter (and finisher) Rick Porcello pitched arguably the best game of his career last night, as he blanked the Rangers 6-0 at hitter friendly Ballpark in Arlington.  He allowed just three hits and three walks while striking out six in a 115-pitch effort to register his first career shutout.

The still just 25-year-old right hander lowered his season ERA to 3.41 with his masterful performance. That is a full run lower than his career mark of 4.41.  As shown in Figure 1 below, one of the main reasons for Porcello's improvement is he is finally getting left-handed batters out on a regular basis.

While Porcello has generally had reasonable success against right-handed batters, left-handers batters have pounded him for an OPS of .750 or better in every year of his career including .884 in 2012 and .808 in 2013.   This year, his OPS against is down to .692.

Figure 1: Rick Porcello, OPS Vs Left-handed and Right-handed batters

Year	vs LHB	vs RHB
2009	.753	.719
2010	.783	.717
2011	.856	.650
2012	.884	.725
2013	.808	.601
2014	.692	.700

Figure 2 below from BrooksBaseball.net illustrates that Porcello has changed his pitch selection versus lefties batters drastically since his rookie year in 2009.  In his early years, he was primarily a sinker ball pitcher versus all types of hitters including 60% of his pitches to left-handed batters in 2009.  This year, he is down to just 26% sinkers.

Porcello now throws more four-seam fastballs (28%) than sinkers to left-handed batters. His curveball has gone from being almost nonexistent his first four years to around 20% in 2013-2014.   He also uses a changeup 21% of the time.


Figure 2: Rick Porcello, Pitch Selection Versus Left-handed Batters

The results of Porcello's pitch selection versus lefties are shown in Figure 3 below.  He has been most successful with his changeup (.170 Batting Average Against) and curve (.205).  He has allowed a .328 batting average on his sinker which is probably why he's throwing it less often.


Figure 3: Rick Porcello, Batting Average Versus Left-handed Batters

The sample size of a half season versus left-handers is, of course small, but he is showing no signs of his previous difficulty versus opposite-handed batters so far this season.  If Porcello can keep it up, he goes from being a good fifth starter to a solid number three and a pitcher who can probably be trusted in a playoff series in October.

Measuring the Tigers Bullpen Woes

In a recent post, I used the RE24 statistic to measure batting contribution including situational hitting.  The statistic is appealing because it gives batters more credit for hits with runners on base than for hits with the bases empty.  This concept can also be applied to pitchers, relievers in particular.

Statistical evaluation of relievers is difficult for a couple of reasons:

1. They pitch so few innings that their statistics can be influenced heavily by a couple of really bad outings.
2. Their actual value depends on game situations more than any other player (this problem will be addressed here)

Using ERA to evaluate relievers is problematic because relievers often make appearances with runners on base and give up other pitcher's runs. So, a pitcher could have a low ERA without actually being that effective. FIP ERA which is based on walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed rather than runs allowed is better but it still does not consider the game environments in which a reliever pitched.

The RE24 metric estimates the number of runs a pitcher saved or cost his team based on his numbers of singles, doubles and all other events allowed including outs.  It also considers the situations in which these events happened.  For example, if Tigers southpaw Ian Krol enters a game with two men on base and nobody out and retires the side he will get more credit than if he comes in with the bases empty.  Krol gets more points in the first scenario because there was greater potential for run scoring.  Thus, Krol saves the Tigers more runs if he frequently pitches well with runners on base than if he always starts an appearance with the bases empty.

The RE24 for all American League teams is shown in Table 1 below.  The Tigers have an RE24 of -12.8 which says that their bullpen has cost them an estimated 13 runs compared to an average staff with the same number of outs. The interpretation is a little misleading because the average also includes starters.  However, all bullpens are compared to that same average, so the ranks are telling and only the Astros (-15.2) and Rangers (-16.8) have been worse than the Tigers.  

Table 1: RE24 for American League teams, June 13, 2014

Team	RE24
Athletics	35.3
Red Sox	29.2
Mariners	24.2
Orioles	13.7
Indians	7.1
White Sox	6.0
Royals	5.1
Blue Jays	4.1
Twins	0.8
Rays	-0.2
Angels	-2.6
Yankees	-6.0
Tigers	-12.8
Astros	-15.2
Rangers	-16.8

Data source: FanGraphs.com

The American League RE24 leaders among relievers are shown in Table 2 below.  New York Yankees right hander Dellin Betances leads the league with a RE24 of 13.2.  The Athletics have three pitchers in the top 15 - Fernando Abad (12.1), Dan Otero (9.1) and Sean Doolittle (8.4) - which is not surprising since Table 1 showed that their team RE24 is best in the league.   

Table 2: AL RE24 Leaders Among Relievers

Name	Team	RE24
Dellin Betances	Yankees	13.2
Koji Uehara	Red Sox	13.1
Zach Britton	Orioles	13.0
Fernando Abad	Athletics	12.1
Jake McGee	Rays	12.0
Burke Badenhop	Red Sox	11.7
Dustin McGowan	Blue Jays	9.9
Zach Putnam	White Sox	9.9
Wade Davis	Royals	9.9
Darren O'Day	Orioles	9.7
Aaron Loup	Blue Jays	9.6
Dan Otero	Athletics	9.1
Sean Doolittle	Athletics	8.4
Casey Fien	Twins	7.5
Adam Warren	Yankees	7.4

Data source: FanGraphs.com

Table 3 shows that right hander Al Alburquerque leads the Tigers with a 5.7 RE24 and that Joba Chamberlain (3.6) and Evan Reed (2.3) also have positive values, but none of them are close to being among the league leaders.  Closer Joe Nathan is one of the worst in the league at -8.0 which surprises nobody.     

Table 3: RE24 for Tigers Relievers

Name	RE24
Al Alburquerque	5.7
Joba Chamberlain	3.6
Evan Reed	2.3
Ian Krol	-1.6
Phil Coke	-3.7
Joe Nathan	-8.0

Data source: FanGraphs.com

So, does this mean that the bullpen is destroying the Tigers season?  Well, they are 29-4 when they lead after the sixth inning and this 88% rate is marginally better than the MLB average of 87%.  The Tigers have blown three leads when leading after the eighth and we can blame Nathan for that, but that's only one worse than the average team which has blown two games after the eighth.  

On the other hand, the Tigers are 2-6 when tied after six innings and the bullpen has to take some of the responsibility for that.  So, while the bullpen is not dooming the season as much as it may seem, it is certainly hurting the team and it's an area that needs to be addressed as the season progresses.

Johnny Cueto is the NL Run Prevention Leader

Johnny Cueto is the NL leader in runs prevented
(Photo credit: USA Today Sports Images)

Earlier today, I posted the American League run prevention leaders through May.  Now, for the National League. 

There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in the league, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:    

• Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 

• Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated Runs allowed by fielders. 

• Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.

• FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.

These measured are discussed in more detail in an earlier post.  After computing each measure, I then take the average of the four. 

The current National League leaders are listed in Table 1 below.  Reds right hander Johnny Cueto leads the league with 18 Pitching Runs, 17 Adjusted Pitching Runs 22 Base Runs and is third with 12 FIP Runs.  That gives him an average of 17 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher.  

Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals is second with 14 runs prevented.  He is first in FIP Runs (14), second in Pitching Runs (18) and Base Runs (16) and fourth in Adjusted Pitching Runs (12).

Table 1: NL Run Prevention Leaders as of May 31, 2014

Pitcher	Team	IP	Pitching Runs	Adjusted Pitching Runs	Base Runs	FIP Runs	Average
Johnny Cueto	CIN	91.0	18	17	22	12	17
Adam Wainwright	STL	85.1	16	12	16	14	14
Jeff Samardzija	CHC	75.0	13	15	12	11	13
Julio Teheran	ATL	83.2	16	14	13	3	12
Tim Hudson	SFG	70.1	14	12	11	7	11
Jason Hammel	CHC	71.1	10	11	14	8	11
Michael Wacha	STL	73.1	11	7	11	10	9
Zack Greinke	LAD	66.0	10	9	3	6	7
Jose Fernandez	MIA	51.2	4	4	8	11	7
Mike Leake	CIN	77.0	7	5	9	4	6
Jon Niese*	NYM	62.1	7	5	6	3	5
Andrew Cashner	SDP	57.1	5	3	5	6	5
Aaron Harang	ATL	65.2	2	1	4	13	5
Hyun-jin Ryu*	LAD	58.1	3	2	5	9	5
Ian Kennedy	SDP	73.2	5	1	4	8	5
Kyle Lohse	MIL	74.0	5	3	5	5	4
Josh Beckett	LAD	60.2	8	7	5	-2	4
Lance Lynn	STL	69.0	6	2	3	6	4
Dillon Gee	NYM	52.2	7	5	5	-3	4
Madison Bumgarner*	SFG	72.2	3	1	-0	10	4

Data source: Baseball-Reference.com