Tigers' Most Memorable Hot Stove Moves of The 70s and 80s

Where were you the day the Tigers traded Mickey Lolich for Rusty Staub?
(Photo credit: Topps Company, Inc.)

A while ago, I listed the Tigers most memorable off-season transactions of the last 25 years.  Today, I will do the same for the 1970s and 1980s,  By "most memorable", I don't mean "best".  Sometimes, a move seems great at the time it's made and then turns out to be a bad one or an insignificant one.  I'm judging this by my own memory of which moves excited or intrigued me most as they were made.  I chose one move (or two related moves) each year.  The list is below.  Keep in mind that 1970 (for example) indicates the move was made in between the last game of 1970 and the the first game of 1971.

1970 - On October 9, my eight birthday, the Tigers traded pitcher Denny McLain along with utility man Elliott Maddox and infielder Don Wert to the Washington Senators for shortstop Eddie Brinkman, pitcher Joe Coleman, pitcher Jim Hannan and third baseman Aurelio Rodriguez.  I doubt I heard about this trade on my birthday.  We didn't have Twitter telling us about trades days before they were officially announced back then.  I likely heard about it the next day at the earliest, but I do remember it being the first trade that really impacted me as a young fan.  I was too young to fully understand what was going on with McLain in 1970 (gambling suspension), but I knew how great he was in 1968-1969.  I didn't know much about the players they go in return, but it turned out to be one of the most favorably lopsided deals in franchise history. 

1971 - I've got nothing here.  The only thing that was vaguely memorable was the trade of pitcher Bill Denehy to the Cardinals for pitcher Chris Zachary and the only reason I remember that at all was because my father was a Cardinals fan.  If it happened today, I would have noticed that Zachary's FIP (2.82) was much lower than his ERA (5.32), but that was another era.  

1972 - The Tigers traded minor league pitcher Danny Fife to the Twins for veteran pitcher Jim Perry.  The brother of the great spit baller Gaylord Perry, Jim was a fine pitcher in his own right and he gave the Tigers one solid year before he was traded to the Indians after the season.  

1973 - Long-time Tiger second baseman Dick McAuliffe was traded for outfielder Ben Oglivie.  This trade was kind of big deal for me because I lived near Boston.  Oglivie had a few pretty good years as a platoon outfielder for the Tigers, but became even better after he was traded to the Brewers before the 1978 season.

1974 - Brinkman, outfielder Dick Sharon and pitcher Bob Strampe were traded to the Padres for slugging first baseman Nate Colbert.  Colbert had a poor year for San Diego in 1974 but, at 29 years of age, he seemed like a good candidate for a comeback.  I got excited when Colbert blasted two home runs and collected seven RBI in his first three games with Detroit, but he did virtually nothing after that.  

1975 - After losing 105 games including 19 in a row in a miserable 1975 season, the Tigers were wheeling and dealing at the winter meetings that year.  First, they acquired pitcher Jim Crawford, catcher Milt May and pitcher Dave Roberts in a seven-player deal with the Astros.  A few days later, 
They acquired outfielder Rusty Staub for pitcher Mickey Lolich in a four-player deal with the Mets.  Roberts and Staub became important pieces in the Tigers resurgence in 1976 known as the year of The Bird.  

1976 - The Tigers signed 33-year-old second baseman Tito Fuentes as a free agent.  Fuentes batted .309 with a .348 on-base percentage in 1977 and then seemingly fell all the face of the earth in 1978.           

1977 - In December, Oglivie was traded for pitchers Rich Folkers and Jim Slaton.  It seemed like a steal at the time, because free agency was new and I didn't really think about Slaton having just one year left. He had a good year with the Tigers and then re-signed with the Brewers the next season. To make matters worse, Oglivie became a star for the Brewers.  

1978 - The Tigers traded minor league pitcher John Murphy and left-hander Bob Sykes to the Cardinals for outfielder Jerry Morales and pitcher Aurelio Lopez.  At the time, I thought Morales would be the key player in the deal, but Senor Smoke turned out to be the prize.  

1979 - My favorite player, Ron Leflore, was traded to the Expos for pitcher Dan Schatzeder.  I probably over glorified Leflore, but this trade made no sense to me at all and I hated it.  It turned out to be much ado about nothing as each player only had modest success after the trade.

1980 - Utility infielder Mark Wagner was traded to the Rangers for reliever Kevin Saucier.  There was not much to see there, but I had reached the age where every Tigers transaction was big news.  

1981 - Outfielder Steve Kemp was traded to the White Sox for outfielder Chester Lemon.  Kemp was a good hitter and one of my favorites, but Lemon was a better all around player and I'm still not sure how Tigers General Manager Jim Campbell pulled it off.  Kemp's career was derailed by injuries, while Lemon became a star on the great Tigers teams of the 80s.

1982 - The Bengals Traded pitcher Dave Tobik for Johnny Grubb during spring training.  This was the type of trade I could only find in the transactions section of the local paper - must reading for a serious baseball fan in those days.   Grubb was a pretty solid bench player for a few years though.

1983 - The Tigers were finally getting close to a division title and they had a big off-season.  They signed Rod Allen as a free agent...but it got even bigger that that.  Campbell had a reputation for being cheap, but he shocked the fan base with the signing of  third baseman/ first baseman Darrell Evans.  Back in those days, MLB used to have a draft of all the available free agents and teams could only make offers to players they drafted.  There were no mystery teams. Every year, the Tigers would draft a few boring non-impact players if they selected anyone at all, so it was seen as a minor victory when they drafted Evans.  Still, more than half the teams drafted Evans, so nobody thought the Tigers had a chance.  It was a big surprise when the announcement was made in December.

Then, in spring training, they completed their team by trading outfielder Glenn Wilson and popular utility man John Wockenfuss for reliever Guillermo Hernandez and first baseman Dave Bergman.  I saw this trade while watching the Reuter's sports news scroll on cable TV.  I thought that was the coolest thing and would check it out several times a day!  I think I was looking for spring training scores and all of the sudden this trade popped up.  Everything came by surprise back then.  It was nothing like today when we see trades developing on the computer.

1984 - After winning the World Series, the Tigers traded third baseman Howard Johnson for pitcher Walt Terrell.  This was an unpopular deal as there were high hopes for Johnson and it didn't seem like manager Sparky Anderson gave him the chance he deserved.  Terrell was a good pitcher for a few years, but Johnson developed into a star and they Tigers really could have used his bat.

1985 - The Tigers traded fire baller Jaun Berenguer, catcher Bob Melvin (yes, that Bob Melvin), and minor league pitcher Scott Medvin to San Francisco for pitchers Eric King and Dave LaPoint and catcher Matt Nokes.  I was pretty excited about Dave LaPoint, but he ended up having far less impact than King and Nokes.  Nokes was a huge surprise exploding for 32 home runs in his first year with the Tigers at age 23.

1986 - The Tigers re-signed free agent outfielder Kirk Gibson.  This was memorable because it seemed like the Tigers were going to lose him which would have been a big loss.

1987 - The Tigers traded pitcher Dan Petry to the Angels for speedy outfielder Gary Pettis.  Petry had had several very good seasons with the Tigers, but he wore out his elbow.  Pettis was one of the best defensive outfielders the Tigers ever had and surprisingly put up a .375 on-base percentage in 1989.

1988 - The Tigers made no major moves, but it was fun to see them make three trades in one day near the end of spring training - Infielder Tom Brookens to the Yankees for pitcher Charles Hudson; utility man Luis Salazar to the Padres for infielder Mike Brumley; Eric King for utility man Kenny Williams (yes, that Kenny Williams)

   

1989 - After a horrible 103-loss season, the Tigers acquired free agents Tony Phillips and Lloyd Moseby at the December Winter Meetings.  I was at graduate school at UConn and had no television or computer.  Even though the moves were officially made two days apart, I learned about both of them on the same day in the newspaper.  

65 Years Of Tigers Walk-Offs

Tigers second baseman Lou Whitaker had a knack for walk-off hits
(Photo credit: Detroit Free Press)

The most exciting way for a baseball game to end is the home team scoring in its last at bat to win the game.  This, of course, is commonly referred to as a walk-off victory.  I recently looked through the retrosheet database to find all the Tigers walk-off wins since 1950 which.  Retrosheet now goes back further than that, but I have not yet downloaded earlier years.  Here is what I found:

The Tigers won 429 walk-offs from 1950-2014.  That is 6.6 walk-offs per year or one out of every 25 games which is probably more than some realized.  Their 15 walk-offs in the 1968 championship season was the most they had in one year.  They had 12 in 1974 and 1988, but just one in 1975.

Table 1 shows that the most common walk-off event was a single - there were 172 of them.  Additionally, there 154 game-ending home runs.  The rarest walk-off event was a stolen base.  There was also a walk-of strikeout - sort of (I will get to that).

Table 1: Walk-off Events for Tigers, 1950-2014

Event	Count
Single	172
Home run	154
Double	28
Sacrifice Fly	18
Base on Balls	13
Wild Pitch/ Passed Ball	13
Reach On Error	9
Fielders Choice	9
Triple	6
Hit Batsman	3
Sacrifice Hit	3
Stolen Base	1

Data source: Retrosheet.org

Table 2 lists the Tigers with the most walk-offs where there was at least one RBI.  So, that excludes wild pitches, passed balls, reaching on error, some fielders choices and the stolen base.  The leader was second baseman Lou Whitaker with 20.  Whitaker is actually tied for fourth among all players trailing only Frank Robinson (27), Dusty Baker (25) and Jose Cruz (21).

The best player with no walk-offs was Norm Cash who had 1,820 career hits and 1,103 Runs Batted In, but no game ending knocks.  That seems bizarre and I don't have a good explanation for it.  Chris Jaffe talked a little bit Cash's walk-off futility in a Hardball Times article.

Table 2: Tigers With Most Walk-Offs, 1950-2014

Player	Count
Lou Whitaker	20
Al Kaline	16
Alan Trammell	14
Kirk Gibson	10
Lance Parrish	10
Willie Horton	10
Brandon Inge	9
Jim Northrup	9
Dick McAuliffe	8
Miguel Cabrera	8

Data source: Retrosheet.org

 Whitaker also had the most walk-off home runs (8) followed by outfielder Kirk Gibson (7).  Other leaders are shown in Table 3.  The Tigers have had eight walk-off grand slams, two of which came with the team three runs down.  Most of you probably remember the most recent one by speedster Rajai Davis last June.  Alan Trammell also accomplished the feat in June, 1988.

Table 3: Tigers With Most Walk-Offs Home Runs 1950-2014

Player	Count
Lou Whitaker	8
Kirk Gibson	7
Willie Horton	6
Brandon Inge	6
Al Kaline	6
Alan Trammell	5
Jim Northrup	5
Lance Parrish	5
Mickey Tettleton	5
Miguel Cabrera	5

Data source: Retrosheet.org

One of the oddest walk-off events was a steal of home by first baseman Earl Torgeson in July, 1955. They've also had three suicide squeezes to win games, the most recent by the mysterious Tito Fuentes in 1977.  They've had three walk-off hit batsmen, the last by outfielder Steve Kemp in 1979.

Then, in 2003 (and this could only have happened in 2003), the Tigers won a game on a strikeout. Second baseman Warren Morris struck out with Alexis Sanchez on third, but the pitch was wild allowing Sanchez to sprint home with the winning run.

So, there you have it - 65 years of Tigers walk-offs.  May they add a lot more to this list in 2015.

Saving Runs For Another Game

Should the Rangers have saved some runs for the next game?
(Photo credit: MLB.COM)

Does it seem as if a team that explodes for 12 or 15 or 20 runs one day inevitably gets shut out or held to one run the next day? Is this a real effect? Does a team become too relaxed after a big game and thus get shut down in the following game? Or perhaps the opposing team gets embarrassed and plays for revenge the next day? Should we really wish that out favorite team saves some runs for the next game?

In order to determine whether a team that scores a large number of runs in one game tends to get held down in the next one, I looked at all games from 2005-2014 using the retrosheet databases. First, I needed to determine a cut off to be used for an unusually high score. Table 1 below looks at the distribution of runs scored in all games during the period: Teams were shut out 6.1% of the time, held to one run 10.3% of the time, etc. We can see that teams rarely scored 12+ runs in a game - only 2.9% of the time - so that seems like a good cut off.

Table 1: Distribution of Runs Scored in All Games, 2005-2014

RS	%	Cum %
0	6.1	6.1
1	10.3	16.3
2	13.0	29.4
3	14.1	43.5
4	13.3	56.8
5	11.2	68.0
6	9.4	77.4
7	6.9	84.3
8	5.0	89.3
9	3.7	93.0
10	2.4	95.4
11	1.7	97.1
12+	2.9	100.0

Data source: Retrosheet.org

In Table 2, we can see that there were 1,386 games between 2005-2014 where a team scored 12 or more runs. I calculated the expected runs in the next game as follows: Suppose the Tigers scored 14 runs in a game. The expected runs in the next game would be the team average runs scored for that season with that game removed. That is:

Expected Runs Scored = (Team total runs scored for the year -14)/161

Table 2 shows that the average of the expected runs in the follow-up game to a 12+ run game was 4.6. The actual average was also 4.8. So, teams scored slightly more than their average in the next game after a high-run scoring game. Suppose we choose a more extreme cutoff such as 15+ runs. In this case, the expected runs (4.7) was almost identical to the actual average (4.8). It appears, in general, that scoring a lot of runs in one game did not depress scoring in the next game.

Table 2: Expected runs versus actual runs in follow-up game

RS Game 1	Games	Expected RS Game 2	Actual RS Game 2
0-2	14,185	4.4	4.3
3-5	18,666	4.5	4.5
6-8	10,296	4.5	4.5
9-11	3,765	4.6	4.7
12+	1,386	4.6	4.8
15+	313	4.7	4.8

Data source: Retrosheet.org

The point is further illustrated in Table 3 which shows the distribution of runs scored in games following 12+ run games. We can see that it is very similar to the distribution for all games in Table 1. For example, teams scored two runs or fewer 26.1% of the time in follow-ups to high scoring games as compared to 29.4% in all games. It certainly does not look as if teams have a tendency to get shut down the next game after an offensive explosion. If anything, they appear a little more likely to exceed their average output in the next game.

So, the next time you see the Tigers score 17 runs in a game, don't fret about the next game. Just enjoy it. 

Table 3: Distribution of Runs Scored in All Games following 12+Run Game, 2005-2014

RS	%	Cum %
0	5.3	5.3
1	9.0	14.4
2	11.8	26.1
3	14.1	40.3
4	13.4	53.9
5	10.7	64.4
6	9.8	74.2
7	7.7	81.9
8	5.7	87.6
9	4.5	92.1
10	2.4	94.4
11	1.5	96.0
12+	4.0	100.0

Data source: Retrosheet.org

How Many Runs Will The Tigers Allow in 2015?

The Tigers are counting on recently acquired Alfredo Simon to replace Rick Porcello in 2015.
(Photo credit: Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports) 

Now that I have projected the Tigers runs scored total for 2015, the next step is to estimate how many runs they will give up.  Run prevention is more difficult to predict because pitcher's arms are so fragile and their performance so volatile, but I'll do my best.

The Tigers allowed 705 runs in 2014 which was lower than only five other American League teams. That was 81 runs more than the 624 they allowed in 2013 when they had one of the best rotations in recent history.  While their starters remained relatively strong last year, they were bogged down by a leaky defense and equally inept bullpen.   

The return of shortstop Jose Iglesias and additions of outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Anthony Gose should give them a much improved defense.  This might help Justin Verlander, who may have had some bad luck on batted balls (.317 Batting Average on Balls In Play) last year.  On the other hand, off-season acquisition Alfredo Simon will be leaving the Reds who led the majors in Defensive Runs Saved.  

For the projection, I first estimate the innings pitched in 2015 for their five current starters and key bullpen pieces (Table 1).  In order to forecast runs allowed, I used three-year averages on three measures from 2012-2014 all adjusted for projected innings this year:

• Runs Allowed.

• Base Runs - estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on base runners, total bases and home runs.

• Runs Allowed according to FIP estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on strikeouts, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs.

For example, Justin Verlander allowed an average of 92 runs per 210 innings (his projected 2015 total) from 2012-2014.  He also had 89 Base Runs and 76 FIP Runs.  The average of the three numbers above (92, 89, 76) is 86.  Since I expect Verlander to be similar to his three-year average next year, I'm estimating 86 runs allowed.

I project the rest of the pitchers similarly moving them up or down from their three-year averages if I think they are going to get better or worse this year.  In particular, I'm guessing that three starters will be somewhat worse than their averages: (1) Right-hander Anibal Sanchez will regress a little due to his age (31) and injury history.  (2) Newcomer Shane Greene likely pitched over his head for the Yankees last year, but I think he'll do better than PECOTA suggests (5.60 ERA!). (3) Simon will not have the benefit of the best defense in the majors this year.

My estimates of 770 runs scored and 674 allowed yields a differential of 96 or 9 to 10 wins above .500.  Thus, my early call for the season is a 90-72, which would match last year's record.  I'll check back again after things get sorted out more in spring training.  

Table 1: Projected Runs Allowed for Tigers Pitching Staff in 2015

		Averages for 2012-2014*
Player	Proj IP	RA	BSR	FIP Runs	Comb	Proj R	Proj ERA
Price	220	82	79	75	79	80	3.01
Verlander	210	92	89	76	86	86	3.39
Sanchez	170	70	65	54	63	75	3.65
Greene	155	75	74	62	70	80	4.27
Simon	170	69	71	81	74	85	4.14
Soria	60	26	21	17	21	21	2.90
Nathan	50	17	17	16	17	25	4.14
Alburquerque	55	19	21	21	20	20	3.01
Rondon	45	18	22	15	18	18	3.31
Krol	35	21	24	19	21	21	4.97
Hanrahan	35	14	18	20	17	17	4.02
Gorzellany	35	14	18	15	16	16	3.79
Other	215				130	130	5.01
Totals	1,455				632	674	3.84

*Average adjusted for projected innings in 2015.