Taking a Break

I have not posted since April 24 when I predicted that Justin Upton would likely start hitting soon. More than a month later he's still not hitting much, but I don't really want to talk about Upton here. I have been writing here since 2005 and have over 1,000 posts, but have not added much the past several months due to additional family and job responsibilities. I don't really have time for much thoughtful analysis now and I am not one for writing my random thoughts or presenting shallow analysis just to keep the blog going.  So, I am taking a break from Tiger Tales.  I probably don't have many (any?) regular readers anymore, but just in case someone cares, I wanted to let you know what I am doing.  I expect I will get back to more consistent analysis and writing some time in life.  For now though, if you want to say hi, you can often find me at Twitter or at motownsports.com where I can talk Tigers without thinking too much!

This Happens To Justin Upton Every Year

When the Tigers inked outfielder Justin Upton in January, there was not much to dislike about the signing.  First of all, few were expecting another big move by the Tigers who had already reached the luxury tax threshold for payrolls.  He was just 28 years old and was coming off a three-year stretch with a 126 OPS+, along with a career 120 OPS+.

He did sign for a lot of money - $22 million per year for six years - but it was not an overpay and when your team's owner is willing to budget for a $200 million payroll, fans need not worry too much about salaries.  Moreover, there was a two-year opt out which he most likely would exercise after the 2017 season.  Sure, he was not the left-handed lead-off hitter some perfectionists envisioned, but he was a substantial upgrade over the expected Cameron Maybin/ Anthony Gose/ Tyler Collins mish mash in left field.

I personally had little doubt he would a productive and worthwhile signing, but I had a suspicion he would not be one of the more popular Tigers.  He had a history of strikeouts (a 26% K rate from 2013-2015) and reputation of being an over-hyped underachiever during his career.  He was probably over-hyped and may or may not have underachieved, but the results including a .271/,350/.471 slash line made a fine addition to any line-up.

The other reason I suspected fans might get frustrated with Upton was his propensity for streakiness.  Having owned him in a couple of fantasy leagues in recent years, I was familiar with his ups and downs.

He has certainly started on a negative note with the Tigers batting .217 with a .569 OPS and 30 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances with just one week left in April.  However, a look at his splits on Baseball-Reference.com shows that it is not uncommon for him to have awful months.  In the past three years, he has had has six months with an OPS below .660:

May, 2013 .654
June, 2013 .616

June, 2014 .617
Sept, 2014 .559

June, 2015 .608
July, 2015 .552

The good news is that he has also had seven months in that three-year period where he hit for an OPS above .900.  Without checking any other hitters, I would guess that Upton is not unique in his roller coaster ways.  All hitters - especially hard swingers with high k rates - have highs and lows. Upton just has the misfortune of an early slump on a new team.  I'm expecting a couple of months with an .900 OPS and a final OPS above .800 for the Tigers new slugger.

 

So, Now How Many Games Will The Tigers Win in 2016?

During the winter, I crunched the numbers and arrived at 90 wins for the Tigers.  When I saw that other sites such as FanGraphs (81 wins) and Baseball Prospectus (79) were must less optimistic about the Tigers, I was thinking maybe I was being biased.  So, I looked at my projections again, but came to the conclusion that the Tigers were a better team than the more sophisticated systems were saying.

The biggest discrepancy between Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection and my rudimentary formula was for outfielder JD Martinez.  PECOTA is pegging him for a .781 OPS in 2016 after hitting .912 in 2014 and .879 in 2016.  I am guessing without reservation that he'll be closer to .900 than .781.  Other individual differences are smaller, but Baseball Prospectus has the Tigers scoring 692 runs in aggregate whereas as I have them scoring 755.

On the pitching side. PECOTA projects Justin Verlander to have a 3.92 ERA whereas I am guessing he will be closer to last year's 3.38 ERA.  Overall, Baseball Prospectus guesses the Tigers will allow 713 runs.  By my calculations (before spring training), they would allow 663.

Now, a week before the season starts, I am not budging on my 755 runs scored prediction.  Their offense is sound and I will be surprised if they do not hit.  The wildcard of course is designated hitter Victor Martinez.  If he is awful again this year, then that changes the outlook a bit, but my projections  already assume some fragility.  I don't think he will be anywhere close to what he was in 2014 when he slugged his way to a .974 OPS.  A better guess is 2013 (when he OPSed .785), but with fewer plate appearances.

The pitching, on the other hand, looks different than it did in February.  Injuries to Daniel Norris (fractured vertabrae), Alex Wilson (sore shoulder) and Blaine Hardy (shoulder impingement) have dampened my enthusiasm soewhat.  On the positive side, it looks as if Anibal Sanchez has recovered from his early spring ailment.  History tells us he will not get through a full season , but I only have him programmed for a 160 innings anyway.

I am guessing we will see about 100 additional innings (compared to my earlier prediction) that will be pitched by pitchers not named Daniel Norris, Alex Wilson and Blaine Hardy.  This will hurt because although they have better depth than last year, it is still not good. So, my pitching projection needs to be adjusted.

For the projection, I first estimate the innings pitched in 2016 for their projected starters and key bullpen pieces (Table 1 below).  In order to forecast runs allowed, I used three-year averages on three measures from 2013-2015 all adjusted for projected innings this year:

• Runs Allowed.

• Base Runs - estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on base runners, total bases and home runs.

• Runs Allowed according to FIP estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on strikeouts, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs.

For example, Justin Verlander allowed an average of 99 runs per 210 innings (his projected 2016 total) from 2013-2015.  He also had 95 Base Runs and 80 FIP Runs.  The average of the three numbers above (99, 95, 80) is 91.  Given his return to form at the end of last year, I expect Verlander to be a little better than his three-year average next year, I'm estimating 85 runs allowed.  
I project the rest of the pitchers similarly moving them up or down from their three-year averages if I think they are going to get better or worse this year. 

My new runs allowed estimate is 691 which combined with 755 runs scored yields a differential of 64.  Since ten runs is worth roughly one win, the Tigers should win six more games than a.500 team. So, I now have them winning 87 games.   Hopefully, I will not have to make any more adjustments before opening day unless it involves the acquisition of a healthy pitcher!

Table 1: Projected Runs Allowed By Tigers Pitchers in 2016

		Average for 2013-2015*
Pitcher	Proj IP	RA	BSR	FIPRuns	Comb	Proj R	Proj ERA
Justin Verlander	210	99	95	80	91	85	3.35
Jordan Zimmermann	200	77	76	73	75	85	3.52
Anibal Sanchez	160	69	64	57	63	75	3.88
Mike Pelfrey	150	89	85	70	81	80	4.42
Daniel Norris	90	48	44	47	46	45	4.14
Shane Greene	80	52	47	39	46	45	4.66
Francisco Rodriguez	65	20	24	26	25	25	3.18
Mark Lowe	60	28	28	24	27	27	3.73
Justin Wilson	55	19	18	20	19	19	2.86
Alex Wilson	35	12	14	13	13	15	3.55
Blaine Hardy	35	12	14	12	13	13	3.08
Drew VerHagen	35	10	10	16	12	15	3.55
Bruce Rondon	30	17	16	12	15	15	4.14
Other	240				147	147	5.07
Totals	1,445				673	691	3.95

*Average adjusted for projected innings in 2016.

Data Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Jose Valdez Among Nine "Cut" By Tigers

According to several Twitter sources, the Tigers optioned right-hander Jose Valdez to Triple-A Toledo this morning.  Additionally, pitchers Drake Britton and Presto Guilmet, catcher Miguel Gonzalez, first baseman Dominic Ficocielo, infielders Tommy Field and Jacoby Jones and outfielders Mike Gerber and Jason Krizan were re-assigned to minor league camp.  That leaves the Tigers with 43 players left in major league camp meaning there are still 18 players that need to be dropped by opening day.

There are no real surprises in that group.  Valdez had a chance at making the opening day 25-man roster, but he was a long-shot.  He will go down to Toledo where he will work on throwing strikes, but may pitch in Detroit at some point this year.

The best prospect of the bunch was infielder Jacoby Jones, but he will be serving a 50-day suspension  after a second positive test for a "drug of abuse".  The 23-year-old Jones has good power for an infielder, but needs to work on his plate discipline.  He has played mostly shortstop, but will likely end up as a multiple position player.  He also might see Detroit before the end of the year.

Joe Jimenez Among Tigers Reassigned To Minor League Camp

The Tigers announced via their official twitter account this morning that pitchers Joe Jimenez and Kevin Ziomek and catchers Austin Green and Kade Scrivique have been re-assigned to minor league camp.  This leaves 55 Tigers in Major League camp meaning there are still 30 "cuts" to make by opening day.

The most significant name on the list is Jimenez who had been throwing well in early spring action..  The 21-year-old right hander posted a 1.47 ERA with a fantastic 61/11 K/BB ratio in 43 innings at A-level West Michigan in 2015.  He had pitched two perfect innings this spring striking out four.  Jimenez was not expected to make the 25-man roster, but it's a bit surprising that he was re-assigned so early.

According to Detroit Free Press writer George Sipple, Tigers General Manager Al Avila said that Jimenez is expected to start at either high-A Lakeland or  Double-A Erie in April.  He should move quickly through the system though and could reach Detroit later this year.  He has a bright future as a potential back-end reliever.

How Good Was Tony Phillips?

(Photo Credit: Detoit News)

Detroit Tigers fans all over the internet were saddened today when the heard of the death of Tony Phillips at the age of 56.  The news brought back images of his deep crouching stance, his flashing eyes and never ending spray of sun flower seeds.  The versatile utility man was a bundle of energy and a joy to watch.

What some fans and media failed to recognize at the time was how good Phillips really was during his five years as a Tiger.  According to Baseball-Reference, the switch hitting fireball batted .281/.395/.405 from 1990-1994.  Yes, that's a .395 on base percentage!  The only player in a Tigers uniform in the last 60 years with a better career OBP is Miguel Cabrera at .405. 

In a time before analysts paid a lot of attention to OBP, many observers did not fully appreciate Tony's on base skills.  He was in the top ten in Major League Baseball during that period and his .443 OBP in 1993 was second to John Olerud of the Blue Jays, yet he never played in an all-star game.

Phillips was more than just an on-base machine though. He was invaluable defensively playing every position on the field but catcher and first base.  He didn't just make token appearances at second, third, short and all three outfield positions.  He played them all frequently and played each position with average to above average skill.

When you add up everything Phillips did in all facets of the game, you can see why manager Sparky Anderson loved him so much.  He consistently put up all-star level Wins Above Replacement (WAR) numbers during his Tigers tenure:

1990 4.7

1991 5.2

1992 5.0

1993 5.6

1994 4.7

  

The most memorable Tiger of the period was mammoth first baseman Cecil Fielder, but Phillips was better. Tony The Tiger finished among the top three Tigers in WAR each year and topped Fielder every year except 1990 (the year Big Cecil hit 51 home runs).  In fact, Phillips led the Tigers in WAR each year from 1992-1994. 

Historically, Phillips ranks among the top five Tigers in cumulative WAR since 1990:

Miguel Cabrera 47

Justin Verlander 45

Travis Fryman 27

Tony Phillips 25

Lou Whitaker 23

He may not have gotten the national recognition he deserved at the time, but Tony was a fan favorite locally and won't be forgotten.  Rest In Peace Mr Phillips.

How Many Runs Will The Tigers Allow in 2016?

The Tigers are counting on recently acquired Jordan Zimmermann to bolster their rotation in 2016.
(Photo credit: H. Darr Beiser, USA Today Sports) 

Now that I have projected the Tigers runs scored total for 2016, the next step is to estimate how many runs they will give up.  Run prevention is more difficult to predict because pitcher's arms are so fragile and their performance so volatile, but I'll do my best.

The Tigers allowed 803 runs in 2015 which was the highest total in the American League by far.  In fact, they allowed 50 more runs than the Red Sox, the next worst run prevention team in the league.   

Pretty much everything went wrong with the Tigers staff last year.  Former ace Justin Verlander missed the first half of the season with a triceps injury.  Anibal Sanchez, one of the best pitchers in the league in 2013-2014 allowed a league-leading 29 home runs due in part to a shoulder ailment. Off-season acquisition Shane Greene started strong but quickly faded and it was later learned that he he had ulnar neuritis and a pseudoaneurysm.  Another new pitcher Alfredo Simon stayed healthy but was wildly inconsistent posting a 5.05 ERA overall.  Moreover, the bullpen was an unmitigated disaster. The only thing that went right was the dependable David Price and he was traded at the end of July.  

New General Manager Al Avila had his work cut out for him this winter and he responded by overhauling the staff.  He signed free agent starters Jordan Zimmerman and Mike Pelfrey and reliever Mark Lowe and added closer Francisco Rodriguez and southpaw Justin Wilson in trades.  The Tigers are also hoping for better health for Verlander and Sanchez and contributions from young pitchers obtained in last year's deadline deals - most notably Daniel Norris and later Matt Boyd and Michael Fulmer.  

For the projection, I first estimate the innings pitched in 2016 for their five expected starters and key bullpen pieces at the beginning of the season (Table 1).  In order to forecast runs allowed, I used three-year averages on three measures from 2013-2015 all adjusted for projected innings this year:

• Runs Allowed.

• Base Runs - estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on base runners, total bases and home runs.

• Runs Allowed according to FIP estimate of what runs allowed should have been based on strikeouts, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs.

For example, Justin Verlander allowed an average of 99 runs per 210 innings (his projected 2016 total) from 2013-2015.  He also had 95 Base Runs and 80 FIP Runs.  The average of the three numbers above (99, 95, 80) is 91.  Given his return to form at the end of last year, I expect Verlander to be a little better than his three-year average next year, I'm estimating 85 runs allowed.

I project the rest of the pitchers similarly moving them up or down from their three-year averages if I think they are going to get better or worse this year.  In particular, I'm guessing that a couple of starters will do worse than their three-year averages: (1) Right-hander Anibal Sanchez will be better than 2015, but will not be anywhere close to his 2013-2014 seasons due to his age (32) and injury history.  (2) Zimmerman will regress due to a switch to a league with a designated hitter.  I also expect reliever Alex Wilson will not repeat his 2015 season because he doesn't miss enough bats.  

My estimates of 755 runs scored and 663 allowed yields a differential of 92 runs or 9 wins above .500.  Thus, my early call for the season is a 90-72, which would be a whopping 16 wins better than last year  That may sound like a lot of wins to some, but that is the type of team they could have if they stay reasonably healthy.  

Of course, there is a lot of uncertainty with this team and while I have built in missed time for fragile players such as Victor Martinez, Jose Iglesias and Anibal Sanchez, there is always a chance of catastrophic injuries which could tank the season.  I'll check back again after things get sorted out more in spring training.  

Table 1: Projected Runs Allowed By Tigers Pitchers in 2016

		Averages for 2013-2015*
Player	Proj IP	RA	BSR	FIP Runs	Comb	Proj R	Proj ERA
Verlander	210	99	95	80	91	85	3.64
Zimmermann	200	77	76	73	75	85	3.83
Sanchez	160	69	64	57	63	70	3.94
Pelfrey	150	89	85	70	81	80	4.80
Norris	140	75	68	73	72	70	4.50
Rodriguez	65	21	28	29	26	26	3.60
Lowe	60	28	28	24	27	27	3.75
J. Wilson	55	19	21	21	20	20	3.27
A. Wilson	55	19	18	20	19	25	4.09
Hardy	50	19	20	17	18	20	3.60
Rondon	30	10	10	16	12	12	3.60
VerHagen	35	17	16	12	15	15	3.86
Others	230				128	128	5.01
Totals	1440				647	663	4.12

*Average adjusted for projected innings in 2016.