RA9-Wins = Wins for a pitcher based on total runs scored while he is pitching
WAR (or FIP Wins) = Wins for a pitcher based on FIP stats (SO, BB, HBP, HR)
FDP-Wins = RA9-Wins minus WAR = Wins not accounted for by SO, BB, HBP, HR
BIP-Wins = Wins contributed by outcomes of balls in play
LOB-Wins = Wins contributed by sequencing of events or runners left on base.
In Table 1 below, pitchers are listed according to RA9-Wins. Mariners ace Felix Hernandez is the clear leader there at 7.1 Wins Above Replacement. Tigers horse Justin Verlander ranks third at 5.8.
Table 1: American League RA9 Wins Leaders
| TEAM | RA9 Wins | |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 7.1 |
| David Price | Rays | 6.0 |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 5.8 |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 5.5 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Yankees | 5.5 |
| Matt Harrison | Rangers | 5.0 |
| Jake Peavy | White Sox | 4.7 |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 4.7 |
| Bartolo Colon | Athletics | 3.3 |
| Jason Vargas | Mariners | 3.2 |
When pitchers are ranked according to the Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) statistics (Table 2), Hernandez's lead is less commanding with just a fraction of a win more than Verlander (5.8 versus 5.6).
Table 2: American League FIP Wins Leaders
| Pitcher | TEAM | FIP Wins |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 5.8 |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 5.6 |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 4.1 |
| David Price | Rays | 4.0 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 3.9 |
| Jake Peavy | White Sox | 3.8 |
| Max Scherzer | Tigers | 3.6 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Yankees | 3.4 |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | 3.4 |
| Matt Harrison | Rangers | 3.2 |
Data source: FanGraphs.com
Verlander has better results on balls in play than King Felix, so adding balls in play to the FIP statistics (Table 3) puts Verlander in the lead 6.6 to 6.2.
Table 3: American League FIP+BIP Wins Leaders
| Pitcher | TEAM | FIP Wins | BIP_WINS | FIP + BIP |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 5.6 | 1.0 | 6.6 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 5.8 | 0.4 | 6.2 |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 3.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 4.1 | 0.5 | 4.6 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Yankees | 3.4 | 1.1 | 4.5 |
| David Price | Rays | 4.0 | 0.4 | 4.4 |
| Jake Peavy | White Sox | 3.8 | 0.4 | 4.2 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 3.9 | -0.3 | 3.6 |
| Matt Harrison | Rangers | 3.2 | 0.3 | 3.5 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 2.3 | 0.8 | 3.1 |
Data source: FanGraphs.com
On the other hand, Verlander has not been successful preventing base runners from scoring (LOB Wins). Thus, if we add runners stranded to the FIP statistics (Table 4), he falls to fifth while Hernandez takes the top spot. Tigers teammates Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are sixth and ninth respectively on that measure.
Table 4: American League FIP+LOB Wins Leaders
| Pitcher | TEAM | FIP Wins | LOB Wins | FIP + LOB |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 5.8 | 0.9 | 6.7 |
| David Price | Rays | 4.0 | 1.7 | 5.7 |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 4.1 | 0.9 | 5.0 |
| Matt Harrison | Rangers | 3.2 | 1.5 | 4.7 |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 5.6 | -0.9 | 4.7 |
| Max Scherzer | Tigers | 3.6 | 1.0 | 4.6 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Yankees | 3.4 | 1.0 | 4.4 |
| Jake Peavy | White Sox | 3.8 | 0.4 | 4.2 |
| Rick Porcello | Tigers | 2.9 | 0.8 | 3.7 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 3.9 | -0.7 | 3.2 |
Data source: FanGraphs.com
Another alternaive would be give pitchers half credit for both balls in play and runners left on base:
FIP Wins + .5*BIP Wins + .5*LOB Wins. For now, I will call that Half WAR (Table 5). Hernandez is the Half WAR leader at 6.5 followed by Verlander at 5.7.
Table 5: American League Half WAR Leaders
| Pitcher | TEAM | FIP Wins | BIP Wins | LOB Wins | Half WAR |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 5.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 6.5 |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 5.6 | 1.0 | -0.9 | 5.7 |
| David Price | Rays | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 5.1 |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 4.8 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Yankees | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4.5 |
| Jake Peavy | White Sox | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 4.2 |
| Matt Harrison | Rangers | 3.2 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 3.0 | 2.0 | -0.3 | 3.9 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 3.9 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 3.4 |
| Max Scherzer | Tigers | 3.6 | -1.6 | 1.0 | 3.3 |
Data source: FanGraphs.com
Would I use Half WAR to determine the Cy Young winner. No, I would never base an award on any single statistic, especially an untested creation. I always encourage people to look at all the information available and not fall back on one number. I do think though that Half WAR is a happy medium between two extremes - relying solely on FIP statistics and just looking at actual runs allowed.
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