Tweaking the Advancement Stats

Yesterday, I introduced some statistics which help to determine how good batters were in advancing base runners.  To review, there are five events which can happen when a player bats with runners on base:

• Other Batted In (OBI) - A base runner is driven in by the batter.  It's the same thing as an RBI except a player does not get credit for driving himself in with a home run.

• Run Assisted (RAS) - A batter advances a runner to either second or third with a hit, base on balls, hit batsmen, error, sacrifice bunt, or another kind of out.  If that runner then scores either during the same at bat or an ensuing at bat, the batter who advanced him is given a Run Assisted.

• Unrewarded Advancement (UNR) - A batter advances a runner, but the runner does not score by the end of the inning.

• Neutral (NEU) - A batter does not advance a runner, but there are no outs on the play. (e.g. a walk with a runner on second).

• Giveaway (GA) - A batter fails to advance a runner and one or more outs are made either at the plate or on the bases.

A batter gets credit for one of the above for each base runner (BR) on base when he bats.  Yesterday, I grouped the first three bulleted events into the Advancement (ADV) category and the last two into the Non-advancement category.  I then calculated to metrics describing a batters proficiciency in advancing runners:

• Advancement Percentage (ADV%) = ADV/BR

• Advances Above Average (ADVAA) = ADV - lg ADV% *  BR

A couple of smart readers pointed out that it's not necessarily fair to include Neutrals among opportunities for advancement.  The reasoning is that Neutrals are often the result of batters not getting an opportunity to advance a runner due to being intentionally walked or pitched around. Thus, I am excluding Neutrals from the total number of opportunities (base runners) and recalculating  ADV% and ADVAA.

With Neutrals included, about 38% of runners on base are advanced.  When Neutrals are removed the success rate increases to 40%.  The result is higher Advancement Percentages for individual batters, but the the names on the leader boards don't change much. Table 1 shows that Reds first baseman Joey Votto is the new ADV% leader (among players with 200+ opportunities) at .550.  Table 2 tells us that his teammate Zack Cozart is still has the worst percentage (.269). 

Table 1: Advance Percentage Leaders, 2012

Player	Team	OPP	ADV	ADV%
Joey Votto	CIN	231	127	.550
Joe Mauer	MIN	375	203	.541
Elvis Andrus	TEX	355	186	.524
Martin Prado	ATL	355	184	.518
John Jaso	SEA	216	111	.514
Jon Jay	SLN	249	127	.510
David Murphy	TEX	291	145	.498
Garrett Jones	PIT	312	155	.497
Alberto Callaspo	ANA	285	141	.495
Jonathan Lucroy	MIL	229	113	.493

  

Table 2: Advance Percentage Trailers, 2012

Player	Team	OPP	ADV	ADV%
Zack Cozart	CIN	242	65	.269
Jemile Weeks	OAK	235	70	.298
Rickie Weeks	MIL	361	114	.316
Josh Reddick	OAK	400	127	.318
Wilin Rosario	COL	242	80	.331
Drew Stubbs	CIN	232	77	.332
Trevor Plouffe	MIN	289	96	.332
Wilson Betemit	BAL	200	67	.335
Ty Wigginton	PHI	229	77	.336
Justin Smoak	SEA	308	104	.338

Joe Mauer of the Twins takes over the ADVAA leadership with 52 (Table 3).  This means that he advanced 52 more base runners than would have been expected by an average player in the same number of opportunities. On the other hand, Athletics outfielder Josh Reddick was -34 advancements below average (Table 4).  

Table 3: Runners Advanced Above Average Leaders, 2012

Player	Team	OPP	ADV	ADVAA
Joe Mauer	MIN	375	203	52
Elvis Andrus	TEX	355	186	43
Martin Prado	ATL	355	184	42
Joey Votto	CIN	231	127	35
Miguel Cabrera	DET	417	199	31
Garrett Jones	PIT	312	155	30
Matt Holliday	SLN	438	204	29
David Murphy	TEX	291	145	28
Torii Hunter	ANA	356	171	28
Prince Fielder	DET	416	195	28

 
 Table 4: Runners Advanced Above Average Trailers, 2012

Player	Team	OPP	ADV	ADVAA
Josh Reddick	OAK	400	127	-34
Zack Cozart	CIN	242	65	-32
Rickie Weeks	MIL	361	114	-30
Delmon Young	DET	408	138	-26
Jemile Weeks	OAK	235	70	-24
Shelley Duncan	CLE	172	45	-24
Nick Hundley	SDN	163	43	-22
Ike Davis	NYN	372	127	-22
Jeff Francoeur	KCA	339	115	-21
Vernon Wells	ANA	155	42	-20

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.  Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at Retrosheet.org.