Cabrera on Pace for Best Batting Season Ever for a Tiger

There is much talk about the possibility of Tigers superstar Miguel Cabrera winning an unprecedented second consecutive triple crown.  That would be a remarkable feat, but most of you are aware of the limitations of the triple crown statistics.  From a sabermetric perspective, 2012 was not even Cabrera's best season.  According to more advanced numbers, his 2011 and 2010 seasons were even better.  This season, however, he is on pace to do something truly historic.

I'm going to use the Batting Runs statistic to show where Cabrera's prformance stands among the greatest seasons in Tigers history.  The Batting Runs metric was first introduced in The Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn in 1984.  It is an estimate of the number of runs a player contributed above an average player based on the number of singles, doubles, triples, home runs, bases on balls, hit batsmen and outs accumulated throughout the season.

Cabrera currently has 30 Batting Runs to give him a narrow lead over Orioles slugger Chris Davis (28).  This means that Cabrera has created an estimated 30 runs more than an average player would have been expected to create given the same number of outs.  If we project from the 60-game sample to 162 games, the Tigers slugger would have 81 Batting Runs by season's end.  How awesome is that?  As great as he was in 2010-2012, he accumulated only 55, 65 and 53 respectively in those years.

The table show that 81 Batting Runs would be the most in the history of the franchise eclipsing first baseman Norm Cash's 76 in 1961.  Not even the legendary Ty Cobb had that many in any season.  If we include base running, then Cobb's 1911 season might be better, but based just on batting Cabrera would be number one.


Table 1: Tigers Single-Season Batting Runs Leaders

Player	Year	Batting Runs
Cabrera	2013	81*
Cash	1961	76
Heilmann	1923	74
Cobb	1911	74
Cobb	1917	70
Cobb	1912	68
Cabrera	2011	65
Greenberg	1937	64
Heilmann	1927	64
Cobb	1915	63

*Projected for a full season
Source: Baseball-Reference.com

The 81 Batting Runs would also be the 24th highest total in American League history.  Cabrera would be in great company as he would join Babe Ruth (9 times), Ted Williams (6), Lou Gehrig (5). Mickey Mantle (2) and Jimmie Foxx (1) as the only American League players with more than 80 Batting Runs in a season.  Cabrera would be the first to do it since Mickey Mantle (84 Batting Runs) and Ted Williams (83) in 1957.  Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa have surpassed 80 in the National League since then.

There is a long way to go and it will be difficult for Cabrera to maintain his current pace, but he has chance to put together a season for the ages in 2013.