The algorithm I have used to evaluate catchers is complex and will not be described in detail here, but the methodology can be found in an earlier article. I do want to give credit to others such as Sean Smith, Justin Inaz, Matt Klaasen and Mike Rogers who inspired me with similar work in the past. The system evaluates catchers based on what we can most easily measure - controlling the running game, pitch blocking and avoiding errors. Thanks to analysts such as Mike Fast, Max Marchi and Mathew Carruth, I can now add a new component to my formula - pitch framing or receiving.
Since this is a Tigers blog, I'll use Detroit backstop Alex Avila as an illustration. Based on innings caught, stolen bases attempted, runners caught stealing and league caught stealing rate, it is estimated that Avila cost the Tigers six runs compared to an average catcher.
Similarly, passed ball and wild pitch rates suggest that Avila cost the Tigers an estimated two runs with pitch blocking. Using the same logic, Avila cost Detroit no runs on throwing errors and one run on fielding errors.
Finally, I take Carruth's pitch receiving data from Stat Corner. Carruth establishes the strike zone based on pitch f/x and umpire calls and tracks the rate of called balls within the zone and called strikes outside the zone for each catcher. According to theses data, Avila got 42 more calls in the Tigers favor than would be expected from the average catcher which translates to 6 runs saved on the season.
The five elements listed above (stopping the running game, pitch blocking, avoiding throwing errors, avoiding fielding errors and pitch receiving) are combined to arrive at total runs saved. Avila's numbers sum to -3 indicating that he cost the Tigers an estimated 3 runs overall with his catching.
Like other defensive algorithms, this system should be taken with a grain of salt. First, it does not address important pitcher management skills. Moreover, pitch receiving measurement is a work in progress. There is evidence that these numbers are relatively consistent from year to year though indicating that they probably describe real skills to some extent.
Table 1 below shows that Cardinals star receiver Yadier Molina was the major league leader with 33 runs saved in 2013. He was especially good at pitch blocking (8 runs) and receiving (20 runs). Jonathan Lucroy of the Brewers was next with 28 total runs saved thanks mostly to his pitch receiving (31 runs).
Table 1: Catcher Runs Saved Leaders, 2013
Player | Team | Running Game | Pitch Blocking | Throwing Errors | Fielding Errors | Pitch Receiving | Total Runs |
Yadier Molina | STL | 5 | 8 | 1 | -1 | 20 | 33 |
Jon Lucroy | MIL | -4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 31 | 28 |
Russell Martin | PIT | 7 | -2 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 25 |
Chris Stewart | NYY | 2 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 25 |
Yan Gomes | CLE | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
Jose Molina | TBR | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 19 |
Buster Posey | SFG | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 17 |
Ryan Hanigan | CIN | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
Brian McCann | ATL | -1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 14 |
Hank Conger | LAA | -1 | -3 | -1 | 0 | 18 | 13 |
Table 2 below tells us that Rockies backstop Wilin Rosario finished last costing his team an estimated 24 runs. His major liabilities were pitch blocking (-4 runs) and pitch receiving (-19). The second worst catcher was Chris Iannetta who cost the Angels 21 runs due mostly to his failure to stop the running game (-5) and pitch receiving (-15). Finally, Table 3 lists the best and worse on each catcher skill based on total runs saved/cost.
Table 2: Catcher Runs Saved Trailers, 2013
Player | Team | Running Game | Pitch Blocking | Throwing Errors | Fielding Errors | Pitch Receiving | Total Runs |
Wilin Rosario | COL | 0 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -19 | -24 |
Chris Iannetta | LAA | -5 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -15 | -21 |
W. Castillo | CHC | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -17 | -16 |
Carlos Santana | CLE | -4 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -8 | -16 |
Kurt Suzuki | MLB | -7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -9 | -12 |
Table 3: Best and Worst Catching Skills, 2013
Skill | Best | Worst |
Stopping the running game | Russell Martin, PIT | John Buck, NYM/ PIT |
Blocking pitches | Yadier Molina, STL | Carlos Santana, CLE |
Avoiding throwing errors | A.J. Pierzynski, TEX | Hank Conger, LAA |
Avoiding fielding errors | Russell Martin,PIT | Jonathan Lucroy, MIL |
Receiving pitches | Jonathan Lucroy, MIL | Wilin Rosario, COL |
That's enough numbers for now. In a future post, I'll provide the data for all catchers with a reasonable number of innings caught. I will also probably try to plug them into a Wins Above Replacement formula to see how catchers rank overall.
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