(Photo Credit: HardballTalk)
Earlier today, I decided it was time to predict the Tigers runs scored total for 2014. So, I looked back at what I did last year and was surprised at how close I came to their actual run total. I guessed that they would score 800 runs and they ended up scoring 796, so I was off by just four runs! I'm not always that lucky, but it convinced me that I should use the same method this year.
The Weighted Runs Created (wRC) statistic at FanGraphs is useful for this kind of exercise because a team's wRC total usually falls fairly close to its run scored total. The Tigers combined for 838 wRC in 2013 which was 5% more than their actual runs scored, which is a little more than most teams. What does that tell us about the Tigers? It suggests that they did not make the most out of their hits and walks and failed to scored as many runs as they should have.
One reason the Tigers undershot their wRC total was that they cost themselves an estimated 20 runs with base running compared to an average team. Subtracting those 20 runs from 838 yields 818 which is within 3% of their actual run total. Another factor was unusually poor production with the bases loaded as they batted just .267 (ninth in the AL) in those situations versus a league average of .271.
Because wRC correlates closely with runs scored, it is also helpful in projecting future offensive production. Table 1 below lists the Tigers most likely players in 2014 and their estimated plate appearances (PA). In the next column is the three-year average of wRC adjusted for expected PA. For example, Cabrera had 424 wRC in 2,037 PA over 2011-2013 which comes out to .203 Runs Created Per PA. Multiplying .208 times 675 PA (his projected PA for 2014) yields his three-year average of 140.
The final column of the table is my forecast for wRC in 2014. In all cases, it is fairly close to the three-year average, but I make adjustments if I think a player will improve or regress this year. I don't expect any players to get significantly better this year, but some probably won't do as well for various reasons.
I'm guessing that new second baseman Ian Kinsler will drop off some due to advancing age and a less friendly hitting environment in Comerica versus Arlington. The lower totals for right fielder Torii Hunter and designated hitter Victor Martinez are also age related.
The biggest wildcard is rookie third baseman Nick Castellanos who has no track record in the majors. I'm pegging him for 60 runs created which is close to what some projection systems such as Steamer are estimating.
Aggregating all the wRC yields 760 for the team. Remember though that they scored 42 fewer runs last year than they "created". Will that happen again in 2014? The subtraction of Prince Fielder and Jhonny Peralta and additions of Kinsler and outfielder Rajai Davis should be enough to erase the 20-run base running deficit. Additionally, the problem hitting with the bases loaded is probably a fluke that will straighten itself out. Based on that, I'll predict 760 runs in 2014 assuming no major changes or injuries before opening day,.
The 760 total would be 36 runs less than the 796 they a scored in 2013, but you have to expect that with the losses of Fielder and Peralta. Base running will make up for some of the loss in power, but not all of it. They should still have a better than average offensive team though to go along with a fantastic starting rotation and improved defense.
Table 1: Tigers Projected Runs in 2014
Player | PA | Runs Created | |
3-Yr Avg* | 2014 Proj | ||
Avila | 425 | 58 | 55 |
Cabrera | 675 | 141 | 140 |
Kinsler | 650 | 87 | 75 |
Iglesias | 500 | 52 | 50 |
Castellanos | 450 | -- | 60 |
Dirks | 425 | 51 | 50 |
Jackson | 625 | 80 | 80 |
Hunter | 600 | 82 | 70 |
Martinez | 575 | 81 | 75 |
Davis | 325 | 31 | 30 |
Lombardozzi | 275 | 24 | 25 |
Holaday | 225 | -- | 20 |
Kelly | 200 | 17 | 15 |
Others | 250 | 19 | 15 |
Base Running/DP | 0 | ||
Totals | 6,200 | 760 | |
No comments:
Post a Comment