Adam Wainwright is NL Run Prevention Leader

Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals is the NL leader in runs prevented
(Photo credit: HardballTalk.NBCSports.com)

Earlier today, I posted the American League run prevention leaders through July 2.  Now, for the National League. 

There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in the league, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:    

• Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 

• Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated Runs allowed by fielders. 

• Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.

• FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.

These measured are discussed in more detail in an earlier post.  After computing each measure, I then take the average of the four. 

The current National League leaders are listed in Table 1 below.  Cardinals right hander Adam Wainwright leads the league in Pitching Runs (29), Adjusted Pitching Runs (24), and Base Runs (27) and is second with 20 FIP Runs.  That gives him an aggregate of 25 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher.  

Johnny Cueto of the Reds is second with 21 runs prevented.  He is tied for first in Base Runs (27), second in Pitching Runs (22) and Adjusted Pitching Runs (19) and third in FIP Runs (17).

Table 1: NL Run Prevention Leaders as of July 2, 2014

Pitcher	Team	IP	Pitching Runs	Adjusted Pitching Runs	Base Runs	FIP Runs	Average
Adam Wainwright	STL	124.0	29	24	27	20	25
Johnny Cueto	CIN	131.1	22	19	27	17	21
Julio Teheran	ATL	126.0	19	18	20	11	17
Clayton Kershaw*	LAD	79.1	17	15	13	22	17
Jake Arrieta	CHC	64.2	14	16	14	15	15
Jason Hammel	CHC	102.2	11	13	12	11	12
Henderson Alvarez	MIA	108.0	12	12	6	11	10
Tim Hudson	SFG	107.2	12	9	9	9	10
Jordan Zimmermann	WSN	103.2	8	7	6	14	9
Michael Wacha	STL	90.1	10	6	10	9	9
Josh Beckett	LAD	98.2	14	11	9	0	8
Tanner Roark	WSN	99.2	10	9	7	7	8
Cole Hamels*	PHI	93.2	8	10	4	8	8
Andrew Cashner	SDP	76.1	9	5	8	8	7
Madison Bumgarner*	SFG	108.2	6	4	6	13	7
Zack Greinke	LAD	103.2	10	7	2	9	7
Alfredo Simon	CIN	102.2	12	9	8	-2	7
Jeff Samardzija	CHC	108.0	4	6	6	12	7
Jon Niese*	NYM	103.0	9	7	7	4	7
Kyle Lohse	MIL	114.0	6	4	11	5	7

Data source: Baseball-Reference.com