Thursday, October 16, 2014

Adding Shifts to Defensive Runs Saved

In a recent post, I presented some statistics on defensive shifts which had been provided via a tweet by Mark Simon of ESPN.  Here, I'm going to add the runs saved by shifts to the Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), a measure which tries to captures team defense.    

Table 1 below shows that the Tigers infield cost the team 27 runs on plays not involving shifts.  They saved 8 runs on shifts which is one above the MLB average of seven.  Adding 1 to -27 gives the Tigers -26 for Infield DRS Plus Shifts, that is, they cost themselves an estimated 26 runs with infield defense.  They ranked 26th in the majors on that measure.

Detroit's total DRS for all positions was -65 without the shift and -64 including shifts.  So, theoretically, they cost themselves 6 to 7 wins on defense compared to the average team.  That was 28th in baseball ahead of just Minnesota (-73) and Cleveland (-75).  That's another illustration of how important it is that the Tigers upgrade defensively this off-season.

Table 1: Defensive Runs Saved Plus Shift Runs Shaved
Team
Infield DRS
Shift Runs Saved
Infield DRS + Shift
Total DRS
Total DRS
 + Shift
St. Louis
32
5
37
64
69
Cincinnati
37
-3
34
67
64
Baltimore
34
0
34
49
49
San Diego
18
-1
17
37
36
Oakland
16
3
19
32
35
Pittsburgh
9
-2
7
36
34
Kansas City
-13
-7
-20
40
33
Boston
-6
6
0
27
33
LA Dodgers
37
-5
32
26
21
Arizona
9
-3
6
21
18
Atlanta
1
-4
-3
19
15
NY Mets
8
-2
6
17
15
Colorado
29
-6
23
16
10
Houston
-13
20
7
-16
4
Washington
10
-6
4
10
4
San Francisco
18
5
23
-5
0
Milwaukee
-20
-3
-23
-5
-8
Seattle
5
2
7
-11
-9
NY Yankees
6
-7
-1
-3
-10
Florida
-24
-14
-38
-5
-19
LA Angels
-16
-5
-21
-16
-21
Toronto
-17
9
-8
-31
-22
Chi Cubs
-8
-4
-12
-22
-26
Philadelphia
-16
3
-13
-39
-36
Texas
-11
5
-6
-43
-38
Tampa Bay
-27
-5
-32
-34
-39
Chi Sox
-32
4
-28
-57
-53
Detroit
-27
1
-26
-65
-64
Minnesota
0
0
0
-73
-73
Cleveland
-41
0
-41
-75
-75
Data sources: ESPN and Baseball Information Solutions

Looking at all teams, we can see there was not a very wide range of runs saved by shifts.  The highest was +20 for Houston and the lowest was -14 for Florida.  So, shifting didn't have a dramatic effect on winning and losing.   A team needs to gain every little advantage they can though and this data gives us a more complete picture of team defense.

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