Keuchel and Greinke Top Run Prevention Leader Boards

With the trade deadline finally passed, I'll now present my second installment of sabermetric pitching leaders.   

There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in baseball, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:    

• Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 

• Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated runs allowed by fielders. 

• Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.

• FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.

These measures are discussed in more detail in an earlier post.  After computing them, you can aggregate them using weights depending on which measures you trust the most.  Here, they are calculated using a simple average.

The 2015 American League leaders as of July 31 are listed in Table 1 below.  Astros southpaw Dallas Keuchel is first in Pitching Runs (30), Adjusted Pitching Runs (29), second in Base Runs (29) and third in FIP Runs (25).  That gives him a league-leading 28 runs prevented compared to an average pitcher.  Athletics ace right hander Sonny Gray is second with 27 Runs Prevented.  

The leading Tiger before the deadline trades was David Price with 18 Runs Prevented, good for sixth in the AL.  All of the other Tigers with at  least 75 innings are below average - Anibal Sanchez (-5), Alfredo Simon (-8) and Shane Greene (-18).  Greene is last among AL qualifiers.

Table 1: AL 2015 Run Prevention Leaders

Pitcher	Team	IP	Pitching Runs	Adjusted Pitching Runs	Base Runs	FIP Runs	Average
Dallas Keuchel*	HOU	151	30	29	29	25	28
Sonny Gray	OAK	145.2	29	29	31	20	27
Chris Archer	TBR	141.2	19	14	24	24	20
Scott Kazmir*	***	123.4	22	22	22	14	20
Chris Sale*	CHW	137.2	12	18	16	30	19
David Price*	DET	146	18	20	13	20	18
Corey Kluber	CLE	157	9	9	18	27	16
Felix Hernandez	SEA	137	17	17	15	11	15
Lance McCullers	HOU	76.1	11	11	10	12	11
Clay Buchholz	BOS	113.1	5	9	9	21	11
Jake Odorizzi	TBR	97.2	14	11	8	7	10
Jose Quintana*	CHW	135.1	8	14	-0	17	10
Hector Santiago*	LAA	123.1	17	14	5	-1	9
Carlos Carrasco	CLE	127.1	2	2	7	18	7
Mark Buehrle*	TOR	134	8	10	3	6	7
Adam Warren	NYY	97.2	4	9	8	5	7
Edinson Volquez	KCR	126	6	5	8	7	7
Jesse Chavez	OAK	114.2	5	5	5	11	6
Yovani Gallardo	TEX	127.1	5	10	4	7	6
Jeff Samardzija	CHW	148.1	-0	7	6	12	6
Nate Karns	TBR	115	8	5	7	3	6
Danny Salazar	CLE	119.1	2	3	9	9	6
Garrett Richards	LAA	122.2	7	3	10	2	6
Kyle Gibson	MIN	124	6	9	5	3	6

Data source: Baseball-Rerence.com


The 2015 National League leaders as of July 31 are listed in Table 2 below.  Dodgers right hander Zack Greinke leads in Pitching Runs (42), Adjusted Pitching Runs (39) and Base Runs (36) and is fourth in FIP Runs (22)  That averages out to a league-leading 35 Runs Prevented..  Nationals fire baller Max Scherzer is second with 28 Runs Prevented.   

Table 2: NL 2015 Run Prevention Leaders

Pitcher	Team	IP	Pitching Runs	Adjusted Pitching Runs	Base Runs	FIP Runs	Average
Zack Greinke	LAD	146.1	42	39	36	22	35
Max Scherzer	WSN	150	28	29	28	28	28
Jacob deGrom	NYM	127.1	24	22	27	19	23
Clayton Kershaw*	LAD	140	18	16	24	29	22
Jake Arrieta	CHC	140.2	18	21	20	23	21
Gerrit Cole	PIT	132.1	20	18	18	18	19
Johnny Cueto	CIN	130.2	17	16	20	14	17
Francisco Liriano	PIT	126.1	14	13	19	14	15
Shelby Miller	ATL	133	17	18	13	12	15
Lance Lynn	STL	116.1	14	14	9	16	13
John Lackey	STL	139.1	18	17	9	9	13
Carlos Martinez	STL	124.1	18	17	6	8	12
Michael Wacha	STL	125.1	11	11	13	11	11
Mike Bolsinger	LAD	89	11	10	10	11	10
Matt Harvey	NYM	133	13	10	11	5	10
Noah Syndergaard	NYM	86.2	9	7	10	12	10
Cole Hamels*	PHI	128.2	5	11	9	12	9
Jon Lester*	CHC	132.2	5	7	6	18	9
A.J. Burnett	PIT	135.1	10	9	3	13	9
Chris Heston	SFG	126	9	3	13	9	8
Jason Hammel	CHC	118	5	7	9	11	8
Madison Bumgarner	SFG	138	10	4	7	8	8
Jordan Zimmermann	WSN	128.2	5	7	6	12	8
Tyson Ross	SDP	127.2	5	3	7	14	7
Mike Leake	CIN	136.2	6	6	8	3	6

Data source: Baseball-Rerence.com