Johnny Cueto Leads National League in Run Prevention

Reds Starter Johnny Cueto has been best in the NL in run prevention in 2014.
(Photo credit: Sports.Yahoo.com)

To follow up on my post on run prevention in the American League, I will now present the National League leaders.  There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in the league, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:    

• Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 

• Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated Runs allowed by fielders. 

• Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.

• FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.

These statistics are discussed in greater detail in the previous post.  The National League aggregate leaders headed by Johnny Cueto are shown in Table 1 below 

Table 1: NL Run Prevention Leaders as of May 5, 2014

Pitcher	Team	IP	Pitching Runs	Adjusted Pitching Runs	Base Runs	FIP Runs	Average
Johnny Cueto	CIN	55.0	16	15	12	5	12
Jose Fernandez	MIA	46.2	7	7	10	12	9
Adam Wainwright	STL	50.0	10	8	9	7	9
Jeff Samardzija	CHC	50.0	10	11	6	5	8
Tim Hudson	SFG	45.2	8	6	9	5	7
Jon Niese*	NYM	39.2	9	8	6	2	6
Julio Teheran	ATL	50.0	9	6	8	0	6
Jason Hammel	CHC	40.2	7	7	6	1	5
Jordan Lyles	COL	44.2	5	6	5	5	5
Gio Gonzalez*	WSN	43.1	5	6	4	6	5
Ervin Santana	ATL	33.2	6	4	3	6	5
Alfredo Simon	CIN	40.2	8	6	6	-1	5
Andrew Cashner	SDP	46.1	5	3	6	4	4
Nathan Eovaldi	MIA	45.1	3	3	5	7	4
Yovani Gallardo	MIL	43.2	7	6	3	2	4
Dillon Gee	NYM	46.2	7	6	5	-1	4
Tom Koehler	MIA	37.1	6	6	4	-2	4
Michael Wacha	STL	42.1	5	2	3	5	4
A.J. Burnett	PHI	43.2	5	6	3	2	4

Data Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Scherzer Leads AL in Run Prevention

Tigers right hander Max Scherzer's season looks great by any pitching metric.
(Photo credit: Yahoo Sports)

It's time for the first installment of the Tiger Tales sabermetric pitching Leaders in 2014.  

There is no surefire way to determine the best pitchers in the league, but a pitcher's job is to prevent runs.  So, it's useful to estimate how many runs pitchers saved their teams compared to an average pitcher.  In the past, I have explored four different ways to do this:    

• Pitching Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on innings and runs allowed. 

• Adjusted Pitching Runs - Pitching Runs minus estimated Runs allowed by fielders. 

• Base Runs -  Runs Saved Above Average based on batters faced and hits, walks, total bases and home runs allowed.

• FIP Runs - Runs Saved Above Average based on innings, bases on balls, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.

Tigers starter Max Scherzer leads the American League with 14 Pitching Runs so far this year which indicates that he saved the Tigers an estimated 14 runs compared to the average pitcher in the same number of innings.  A statistic based on pure runs allowed is a good place to start, but it does not take into consideration things such as team defense and ballparks.

If we attempt to take team fielding out of the equation, then Scherzer looks better since the Tigers have performed below average defensively so far according the Total Zone and Defensive Runs Saved Statistics. According to Adjusted Pitching Runs which considers defense as well as ballpark, Scherzer has saved his team a league-leading 16 runs.  The biggest limitations of this metric are the uncertainty of the fielding measures and the assumption that all pitchers are affected by team defense in the same way.  

Even if you trust the fielding component of the Adjusting Pitching Runs calculation, another issue is that a pitcher has no control over what happens after he leaves the game   If he departs with a man on first with two outs and the relief pitcher allows a run-scoring double, the starting pitcher is charged with the run. In other words, a pitcher’s ERA is dependent not only on the quality of his innings but also on the quality of the innings of his relievers.

Another potential concern regarding Pitching Runs and Adjusted Pitching Runs is the timing of hits, walks and extra base hits. For example, if a pitcher pitches nine innings and gives up nine hits with each hit coming in a different inning, he will almost surely allow fewer runs than if he surrenders all the hits in one
inning. If a pitcher frequently allows a lot of base runners and extra base hits, he might get away with a relatively low ERA for a period of time, but it wouldn't necessarily be based on skill.

A related issue to the distribution of base runners is sequencing of events. Let’s say a pitcher
allows the following sequence of events in an inning:

1. Ground out
2. Single
3. Single
4. Homer
5. Strikeout
6. Fly out

In this case, he would be charged with three runs allowed for the inning. Now, suppose that
Pitcher B has a slightly different sequence of events in another inning:

1. Ground out
2. Homer
3. Single
4. Single
5. Strikeout
6. Fly out

In this case, the pitcher is charged with one run. Both pitchers surrendered a homer and two
singles but Pitcher B allowed two fewer runs just because the sequence of hits was different.

While pitchers vary in their ability to prevent base runners from scoring, research by Ron Shandler – author of The Baseball Forecaster and publisher of BaseballHQ.com– suggests that this has more to do with overall pitcher quality than clutch pitching ability. In other words, most pitchers who consistently strand runners do so primarily because they get strikeouts and limit base runners in all situations, not because they have a lot of control over clustering of base runners or sequencing of events.  In other words, much of the bunching and sequencing seems to based on luck to some extent.  

In order to remove, clustering of base runners and sequencing of events from the equation, we can use a component-based statistic.  One such measure is the Base Runs statistic created by David Smythe in the early 1990s.  It is based on the idea that we can estimate team runs scored if we know the number of base runners, total bases, home runs and the typical score rate (the score rate is the percentage of base runners that score on average).  Base Runs also works well for individual pitchers.  The complete formula can be found here.  Scherzer has 9 Base Runs which ties him for the league lead with Athletics starter Scott Kazmir, Garrett Richards of the Angels and Felix Hernandez of Seattle.   

A criticism of Base Runs for evaluation of pitchers is that it includes hits on balls in play which is the responsibility of fielders at least as much as pitchers.  Thus, many analysts prefer to use FIP (translated in to FIP Runs here) which only considers events that a pitcher essentially controls - walks, hit batsmen and home runs allowed and strikeouts.  Scherzer had 11 FIP Runs which was second to Red Sox right hander Jon Lester (13).  

Table 1 below lists all four statistics discussed above - Pitching Runs, Adjusted Pitching Runs, Base Runs and FIP Runs - side by side and also the average of the four for the top fifteen pitchers.  Scherzer's average across the measures is 13 which leads the American League.  He is followed by three Oakland starters - Sonny Gray (10), Kazmir (8) and Jesse Chavez (8).  

Scherzer's teammate Justin Verlander is 10th with 6 Runs Saved.  Other Tigers starters include Rick Porcello (4), Drew Smyly (4) and Anibal Sanchez (3).

Table 1: AL Run Prevention Leaders as of May 5, 2014

Pitcher	Team	IP	Pitching Runs	Adjusted Pitching Runs	Base Runs	FIP Runs	Average
Max Scherzer	DET	47.0	14	16	9	11	13
Sonny Gray	OAK	47.0	11	11	8	7	10
Scott Kazmir*	OAK	44.1	8	8	9	8	8
Jesse Chavez	OAK	38.0	8	8	8	8	8
Yordano Ventura	KCR	36.0	9	8	7	7	8
Garrett Richards	LAA	38.0	7	6	9	7	7
Jon Lester*	BOS	48.2	3	6	7	13	7
Masahiro Tanaka	NYY	42.2	8	10	4	6	7
Mark Buehrle*	TOR	40.0	8	9	3	6	7
Justin Verlander	DET	47.0	5	8	4	8	6
Felix Hernandez	SEA	46.1	4	3	9	9	6
Yu Darvish	TEX	37.2	7	8	3	7	6
Martin Perez*	TEX	47.2	4	7	6	7	6
Zach McAllister	CLE	39.2	4	6	4	8	5
Kyle Gibson	MIN	36.0	4	5	5	3	4
C.J. Wilson*	LAA	39.2	5	3	5	5	4
John Lackey	BOS	46.0	3	5	2	6	4
Rick Porcello	DET	32.0	3	4	4	4	4
Corey Kluber	CLE	45.0	1	4	2	8	4

Data source: Baseball-Reference.com

Smyly Repeats Pitch Selection Pattern of Previous Start

Tigers left hander Drew Smyly worked his second consecutive strong start last night pitching the Tigers to a 9-2 victory over the Royals.  He allowed just two hits and two bases on balls while recording six strikeouts in seven shutout innings.  The performance lowered his ERA to 2.45 and FIP to 3.23 for the season including a couple of relief appearances.

In Smyly's previous start, he had a rocky first inning before settling down to pitch five shutout frames. What was interesting about that outing was his pitch selection.  He relied mostly on his fourseam and cut fastballs early, but then shifted to much more slider usage after the first inning.  The shift in pitch selection made sense since what he was doing in the first inning wasn't working for him.  

So, I was curious to see whether Smyly would employ the slider as his go-to pitch again last night.  Similar to his previous start, he threw only three sliders among his first 29 (10% sliders) pitches, but this time his fastball repertoire was serving him well.  So, was the heavy slider usage of last weekend's start just a temporary fix in a game when his other pitches were not effective?  Apparently not because he followed up with 22 (or 34%) sliders in his final 64 pitches last night.  

According to BrooksBaseball.org, the Tigers 25-year-old southpaw also tossed eight change-ups, a pitch he has rarely used in the past year.  Meanwhile, he used his cutter, one of his favorite pitches as a reliever last year, just 7 times.   

The linear weights outcomes of his pitches last night showed good results on everything but the cut fastball:

fourseam fastball -1.89 

slider -1.84

changeup -0.44

cut fastball +0.71

Last week, I credited the shift from fastballs to sliders to catcher Alex Avila's pitch calling (Bryan Holaday was behind the plate last night), but perhaps it is going to be a general strategy for Smyly to rely on the fastball early with more sliders later.  That and his change-up usage are things to watch in his next start.  

Porcello Handles Royals Left-Handed Batters

The Tigers defeated the Royals 8-2 last night thanks, in part, to the pitching of right hander Rick Porcello.  Porcello limited the Royals to two runs on four hits and no bases on balls in seven innings.  The performance lowered his season ERA to 3.66 and FIP to 3.34 and he has walked just 4 batters in 32 innings.

Porcello did not rely so much on his trademark sinker last night using it on just 23% percent of his pitches. Instead, he threw 36% fourseam fastballs, 30% breaking pitches and 11% changeups according to BrooksBaseball.net.  The result was just seven outs on ground balls which is usually a bad sign for someone who doesn't strike out a lot of batters.  Last night though, Porcello racked up six strikeouts and generally prevented strong contact thanks to a nasty curve and effective fastball.

The Royals loaded up with five left-handed batters which is typically a smart strategy versus Porcello who is notoriously bad versus batters of opposite handedness. His lefty/righty splits were .603/.806 OPS in 2013 and .603/.806 in 2012 for example.  Last night though, he held left-handed batters to 1 hit and 4 strikeouts in 13 at bats.

Of Porcello's 61 pitches to left-handed batters, 25 were fast balls and 13 were curves.  The linear weights values (negative numbers are good) on the two pitches were -0.91 and -0.96 respectively.  The chart below shows that Porcello did a did fine job of keeping his pitches down and/or off the plate.  You can see that the curves in particular were in locations that were near impossible to hit.


Data source: BrooksBaseball.net

So, Porcello had no trouble versus left-handed hitters last night and has actually handled them pretty well for the season sporting a .659/.689 L/R split in a realtively small sample.  The 25-year-old veteran still has only 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings overall, but if he can continue to limit the damage versus lefties, he can take a step forward this year.