If I had a Hall-of-Fame Ballot

The 2013 Hall-of-Fame voting should be one of the most interesting ever with several players - including two of the greatest in the history of the game - linked to the Performance Enhancing Drug (PED) controversy and a ballot that includes more than ten worthy candidates.  There are 37 players on the ballot and writers can vote for up to 10 candidates.  I, of course, do not have a vote, but will fill my theoretical ballot here.

My selection process involves comparing players to their contemporaries, other players at the same position and current Hall-of-Fame members.  I value peak performance and career performance equally.  I use many traditional and advanced statistics, most of which can be found on Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.  Some of my favorites are plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, batting runs, wOBA,and WAR for hitters and innings pitched, ERA, pitching runs, strikeouts and WAR for pitchers.  I used multiple WAR statistics in my analysis, but any WAR cited below is Baseball-Reference WAR.

I do not bring PED use into my thought process.  The use of PEDs has been very widespread, not only in the 1990s and 2000's, but all the way back to the sixties and even further.  It is impossible to know which players stayed clean and which used and how much it affected their performance.  Eliminating or even judging players based on suspicion seems very unfair to me.  It also seems pretty obvious that the game turned a blind eye to the problem for many decades.  Thus, I consider PED use to have been part of the game and choose players solely based on their on-field performance.

Now, for my ballot:

Barry Bonds: He was the greatest player of his generation and is on a very short list of the best players ever.  You can't have a Hall-of-Fame without him. 

Roger Clemens: As with Bonds, it would be silly to leave Clemens out of the Hall-of-Fame.  He is one of the five best pitchers in the history of the game.

Jeff Bagwell: Not on the same level as Bonds and Clemens, but still a slam-dunk selection.  He is 23rd all-time in Batting Runs and has a WAR comparable to Rod Carew, Joe Dimaggio and Pete Rose.   

Mike Piazza: Another automatic selection.  He is arguably the best hitting catcher ever leading all receivers in Batting Runs and Weighted Runs Created. 

Tim Raines: One of best all-around players of his generation.  His 66.2 WAR is fifth best all-time among left fielders.

Craig Biggio: Had 3,060 lifetime hits and there was nothing hollow about the achievement. He had 291 homers, 414 stolen bases and led all second basemen in runs and doubles.  He even caught for a few years. 

Alan Trammell: He was over shadowed by Cal Ripken and slick-fielding Ozzie Smith, but his 67.1 WAR is tied with Barry Larkin for ninth all-time.

Curt Schilling: He was arguably the best post-season pitcher ever, but was a lot more than that.  He had a 127 ERA+, 3,116 strikeouts (15th best ever), 77 WAR (26th best). 

Larry Walker: His numbers were aided by Coors field, but was still one of the best all-around players of his era.  His 141 OPS+ was 7th best ever among right fielders and 69.7 WAR was 6th.  Also a great defender.

Mark McGwire: Had a short injury-marred career, but his peak years can not be ignored.  His 583 home runs is 10th on the all-time list and his 163 OPS+ is 13th.
  
A voter can only check off ten names,but there are more than ten who deserve Hall-of-Fame status.  I would also vote for Edgar Martinez and perhaps Rafael Palmeiro and Kenny Lofton.   

Converting RZR, OOZ to Runs for First Basemen

In previous posts, I took the Revised Zone Rating (RZR) and Out-of-Zone Plays (OOZ) metrics listed at FanGraphs and converted them to runs based on an algorithm developed by Colin Wyers a few years ago.  Links to these posts are provided below:

• Overview of RZR, OOZ

• Conversion of RZR, OOZ to runs

• Shortstops 

• Second basemen

• Third basemen

• Center fielders

Now, I'm going to to do the run conversion for first basemen.  Table 1 below contains the following information for 21 MLB first basemen with 800 or more innings in 2012:

• Inn = Innings

• RZR = Revised Zone Rating

• OOZ = Out-of-Zone Plays

• PIZAA =  Plays in Zone Above Average

• OOZAA = Out-of-Zone Plays Above Average

• PMAA = Total Plays Above Average

• RSAA = Runs Saved Above Average 

Note that these statistics do not account for plays made receiving throws from infielders which is probably the most important duty of a first baseman. They only consider performance on ground balls.

Adrian Gonzalez, who split time with the Red Sox and Dodgers, led the majors with +16 Runs Saved Above Average.  He was followed by Padres first baseman Yonder Alonso at +14.  The worst first baseman by this metric was Paul Konerko of the White Sox (-12). 

Tigers first baseman Prince Fielder was 4 runs above average.  He was better inside the zone (+7 plays above average) than outside the zone (-2 below average).  Other defensive metrics also rated Fielder fairly close to average defensively.  This includes Defensive Runs Saved (-4) and Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Average (+1).

Table 1: Runs Saved by MLB First Basemen According to RZR, OOZ, 2012

Player	Team	Inn	RZR	OOZ	PIZ AA	OOZ AA	PMAA	RSAA
Adrian Gonzalez	BOS/LAD	1,246	.865	29	16	3	20	16
Yonder Alonso	SDP	1,276	.829	37	6	11	17	14
Albert Pujols	LAA	1,021	.842	25	8	4	12	10
Carlos Pena	TBR	1,237	.829	31	6	6	12	9
Adam LaRoche	WSN	1,323	.787	38	-1	11	10	8
Joey Votto	CIN	969	.819	25	4	5	9	7
Mark Teixeira	NYY	1,032	.784	32	-2	11	9	7
Casey Kotchman	CLE	1,087	.807	25	3	3	6	5
Prince Fielder	DET	1,392	.823	27	7	-2	5	4
James Loney	LAD/BOS	982	.794	24	0	4	4	3
Ike Davis	NYM	1,222	.799	24	1	-1	-0	-0
Corey Hart	MIL	849	.811	15	2	-2	-1	-0
Justin Morneau	MIN	879	.809	15	2	-3	-1	-1
Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	1,205	.805	21	2	-4	-2	-1
Brandon Belt	SFG	976	.789	19	-1	-1	-2	-1
Carlos Lee	HOU/MIA	1,250	.754	25	-8	-1	-9	-7
Mark Reynolds	BAL	957	.743	16	-5	-4	-9	-7
Freddie Freeman	ATL	1,289	.745	26	-9	-0	-9	-8
Justin Smoak	SEA	1,155	.806	12	2	-12	-10	-8
Eric Hosmer	KCR	1,277	.783	17	-2	-9	-11	-9
Paul Konerko	CHW	886	.756	8	-5	-10	-15	-12

Data source: FanGraphs.com