Steamer Projects Tigers As Number One Offense in AL

 The Tigers should have a strong offense in 2014 even without Prince Fielder
(Photo credit: Detroit Athletic Club)

There has been a lot of concern among Tigers fans this winter over the Tigers 2014 offensive production minus the bats of Prince Fielder and Jhonny Peralta.  Fans acknowledge the upgrades in speed and defense with the additions of outfielder Rajai Davis, shortstop Jose Iglesias and second baseman Ian Kinsler and the shift of two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera from third base to first base, but they still fear the loss of power once provided by Fielder and Peralta.

Despite the loss of offense, the Steamer System (an advanced algorithm with a good reputation) projects that the Tigers will lead the American League in runs scored with 786 (Table 1).  The first question some might have is how a team that scored 796 runs last year is only going to drop 10 runs in the absence of Fielder and Peralta with no replacement in power.  This seems too optimistic, so let's look more closely at what happened last year and what they added this off-season.   

Table 1: AL Projected Runs Scored in 2014 According to Steamer

Team	Runs
Detroit	786
Toronto	777
Los Angeles	773
Texas	757
Boston	756
Kansas City	752
Seattle	720
Oakland	719
Houston	714
Baltimore	706
Cleveland	692
New York	675
Tampa Bay	665
Chicago	653
Minnesota	616

Data Source: FanGraphs.com

One issue is that that their run total last year was not indicative of their hitting ability.  According to the Runs Created statistic at FanGraphs, the Tigers hit well enough to score 836 runs last year which is 40 more than they actually scored.  Half of the difference is explained by base running as they were 20 base running runs below average.  The other half is probably bad luck such as hitting just .267 (ninth in the AL) with the bases loaded versus a league average of .271.

So, the Tigers were capable of producing 50 more runs with their hitting last year than they theoretically can right now.  However, the additional speed should give the Tigers an average base running team and allow the Tigers to score about 20 more runs next year with their feet.  That's still a 30-run difference but remember they underperformed by about 20 runs last year with inefficient situational hitting.  So, there's our ten-run difference between 2013 and 2014.

The off-season is not over and this is just one projection system and there are five teams within 35 runs, so I'm not ready to say that the Tigers have the best offense in the league  You also might agree or disagree with some of their individual projections (more on that later as other projections come in).  However, there is evidence that the Tigers offense is still among the best in the league and not that far away from last year's run total.

When Tigers Pitchers Allowed Ground Balls in 2013, Hits Happened

 Jose Iglesias is part of a Tigers infield that should allow fewer runs in 2014
(Photo Credit: USA Today)

Over the past couple of years, the Tigers have sacrificed infield defense for offense with an infield including slugging third baseman Miguel Cabrera, steady but immobile shortstop Jhonny Peralta and hefty first baseman Prince Fielder.  The results were predictably unsatisfactory with the Tigers infield leaving gaping holes allowing for ground balls to escape to the outfield.

Thanks to the retrosheet databases, it is possible to estimate just how much damage was done.  Table 1 below shows that there were 1,884 ground balls off the 2013 Tigers staff, 520 of which resulted in hits yielding a batting average of .276.  That was, by far, the highest batting average on ground balls in the majors which probably doesn't surprise anyone that watched Tigers defenders stumble around the infield last year.

Table 1: Batting Average on Ground Balls Versus Pitchers, 2013

Team	BIP	H	BA
LAN	2,019	449	.222
ATL	1,970	439	.223
CIN	1,863	418	.224
BAL	1,895	430	.227
COL	2,171	500	.230
PIT	2,281	528	.231
SDN	2,039	474	.232
SFN	1,830	429	.234
CHN	1,882	445	.236
TBA	1,884	447	.237
KCA	1,803	428	.237
OAK	1,670	397	.238
ARI	2,123	507	.239
NYN	2,034	492	.242
BOS	1,839	446	.243
SEA	1,910	464	.243
TEX	1,773	436	.246
SLN	2,080	514	.247
MIA	2,019	500	.248
MIL	1,988	494	.248
HOU	1,010	251	.249
MIN	2,084	519	.249
CLE	1,863	464	.249
WAS	1,957	496	.253
ANA	1,824	464	.254
TOR	1,988	512	.258
PHI	2,016	527	.261
NYA	1,932	508	.263
CHA	1,895	500	.264
DET	1,884	520	.276

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.

The major league batting average on ground balls was .243, so you would expect the average team to allow 458 hits on 1,884 ground balls.  Thus, the Tigers allowed an estimated 62 more hits on ground balls than an average infield given the same number of opportunities.  Since the average failure to convert a batted ball into an out costs about 0.75 runs, the Tigers infield was responsible for an estimated 47 extra runs which is substantial.

The lowest batting average on ground balls was .222 achieved by the Dodgers.  In comparison to Los Angeles, the Tigers allowed 102 extra hits on ground balls which translates into a whopping 76 runs further illustrating the value of a strong infield defense.

The Detroit hurlers most affected by the porous infield were probably Doug Fister and Rick Porcello, two of the more prolific ground ball pitchers in baseball.  Fister allowed  a .294 batting average on ground balls while Porcello surrendered hits at a .271 rate.  Other pitchers were not so reliant on ground balls, but were still hurt by high averages - Max Scherzer (.281) and Justin Verlander (.304). 

Interestingly, American League ERA leader Anibal Sanchez seemed unaffected posting a .243 average on grounders.  This may have been due to random luck or it could be that he induced weaker contact on grounders than other pitchers.  Unfortunately, data such as speed of batted balls are not yet available to the public.

Whether by design or circumstances or both, the Tigers have made moves to improve their infield defense heading into the 2014 season.  It actually started in late July with the acquisition of acrobatic shortstop Jose Iglesias from the Boston Red Sox.  It was a surprise trade necessitated by the suspension of Peralta for most of the final two months.

This winter they traded Fielder to the Rangers for second baseman Ian Kinsler, a deal that started a chain reaction of position shifts.  Cabrera will move to first base and rookie Nick Castellanos will go back to third after spending 2013 as a left fielder in Toledo.  This will likely result in defensive upgrades at both infield corners next year. 

The loss of Fielder is likely going to cost the Tigers runs offensively in 2014 versus 2013.  However, if the infield can manage to be merely average defensively, they can add four of five wins and more than offset any loss in production.