Thursday, December 26, 2013

When Tigers Pitchers Allowed Ground Balls in 2013, Hits Happened

 Jose Iglesias is part of a Tigers infield that should allow fewer runs in 2014
(Photo Credit: USA Today)

Over the past couple of years, the Tigers have sacrificed infield defense for offense with an infield including slugging third baseman Miguel Cabrera, steady but immobile shortstop Jhonny Peralta and hefty first baseman Prince Fielder.  The results were predictably unsatisfactory with the Tigers infield leaving gaping holes allowing for ground balls to escape to the outfield.

Thanks to the retrosheet databases, it is possible to estimate just how much damage was done.  Table 1 below shows that there were 1,884 ground balls off the 2013 Tigers staff, 520 of which resulted in hits yielding a batting average of .276.  That was, by far, the highest batting average on ground balls in the majors which probably doesn't surprise anyone that watched Tigers defenders stumble around the infield last year.

Table 1: Batting Average on Ground Balls Versus Pitchers, 2013
Team
BIP
H
BA
LAN
2,019
449
.222
ATL
1,970
439
.223
CIN
1,863
418
.224
BAL
1,895
430
.227
COL
2,171
500
.230
PIT
2,281
528
.231
SDN
2,039
474
.232
SFN
1,830
429
.234
CHN
1,882
445
.236
TBA
1,884
447
.237
KCA
1,803
428
.237
OAK
1,670
397
.238
ARI
2,123
507
.239
NYN
2,034
492
.242
BOS
1,839
446
.243
SEA
1,910
464
.243
TEX
1,773
436
.246
SLN
2,080
514
.247
MIA
2,019
500
.248
MIL
1,988
494
.248
HOU
1,010
251
.249
MIN
2,084
519
.249
CLE
1,863
464
.249
WAS
1,957
496
.253
ANA
1,824
464
.254
TOR
1,988
512
.258
PHI
2,016
527
.261
NYA
1,932
508
.263
CHA
1,895
500
.264
DET
1,884
520
.276
The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.

The major league batting average on ground balls was .243, so you would expect the average team to allow 458 hits on 1,884 ground balls.  Thus, the Tigers allowed an estimated 62 more hits on ground balls than an average infield given the same number of opportunities.  Since the average failure to convert a batted ball into an out costs about 0.75 runs, the Tigers infield was responsible for an estimated 47 extra runs which is substantial.

The lowest batting average on ground balls was .222 achieved by the Dodgers.  In comparison to Los Angeles, the Tigers allowed 102 extra hits on ground balls which translates into a whopping 76 runs further illustrating the value of a strong infield defense.

The Detroit hurlers most affected by the porous infield were probably Doug Fister and Rick Porcello, two of the more prolific ground ball pitchers in baseball.  Fister allowed  a .294 batting average on ground balls while Porcello surrendered hits at a .271 rate.  Other pitchers were not so reliant on ground balls, but were still hurt by high averages - Max Scherzer (.281) and Justin Verlander (.304). 

Interestingly, American League ERA leader Anibal Sanchez seemed unaffected posting a .243 average on grounders.  This may have been due to random luck or it could be that he induced weaker contact on grounders than other pitchers.  Unfortunately, data such as speed of batted balls are not yet available to the public.

Whether by design or circumstances or both, the Tigers have made moves to improve their infield defense heading into the 2014 season.  It actually started in late July with the acquisition of acrobatic shortstop Jose Iglesias from the Boston Red Sox.  It was a surprise trade necessitated by the suspension of Peralta for most of the final two months.

This winter they traded Fielder to the Rangers for second baseman Ian Kinsler, a deal that started a chain reaction of position shifts.  Cabrera will move to first base and rookie Nick Castellanos will go back to third after spending 2013 as a left fielder in Toledo.  This will likely result in defensive upgrades at both infield corners next year. 

The loss of Fielder is likely going to cost the Tigers runs offensively in 2014 versus 2013.  However, if the infield can manage to be merely average defensively, they can add four of five wins and more than offset any loss in production.

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