Adding Shifts to Defensive Runs Saved

In a recent post, I presented some statistics on defensive shifts which had been provided via a tweet by Mark Simon of ESPN.  Here, I'm going to add the runs saved by shifts to the Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), a measure which tries to captures team defense.    

Table 1 below shows that the Tigers infield cost the team 27 runs on plays not involving shifts.  They saved 8 runs on shifts which is one above the MLB average of seven.  Adding 1 to -27 gives the Tigers -26 for Infield DRS Plus Shifts, that is, they cost themselves an estimated 26 runs with infield defense.  They ranked 26th in the majors on that measure.

Detroit's total DRS for all positions was -65 without the shift and -64 including shifts.  So, theoretically, they cost themselves 6 to 7 wins on defense compared to the average team.  That was 28th in baseball ahead of just Minnesota (-73) and Cleveland (-75).  That's another illustration of how important it is that the Tigers upgrade defensively this off-season.

Table 1: Defensive Runs Saved Plus Shift Runs Shaved

Team	Infield DRS	Shift Runs Saved	Infield DRS + Shift	Total DRS	Total DRS  + Shift
St. Louis	32	5	37	64	69
Cincinnati	37	-3	34	67	64
Baltimore	34	0	34	49	49
San Diego	18	-1	17	37	36
Oakland	16	3	19	32	35
Pittsburgh	9	-2	7	36	34
Kansas City	-13	-7	-20	40	33
Boston	-6	6	0	27	33
LA Dodgers	37	-5	32	26	21
Arizona	9	-3	6	21	18
Atlanta	1	-4	-3	19	15
NY Mets	8	-2	6	17	15
Colorado	29	-6	23	16	10
Houston	-13	20	7	-16	4
Washington	10	-6	4	10	4
San Francisco	18	5	23	-5	0
Milwaukee	-20	-3	-23	-5	-8
Seattle	5	2	7	-11	-9
NY Yankees	6	-7	-1	-3	-10
Florida	-24	-14	-38	-5	-19
LA Angels	-16	-5	-21	-16	-21
Toronto	-17	9	-8	-31	-22
Chi Cubs	-8	-4	-12	-22	-26
Philadelphia	-16	3	-13	-39	-36
Texas	-11	5	-6	-43	-38
Tampa Bay	-27	-5	-32	-34	-39
Chi Sox	-32	4	-28	-57	-53
Detroit	-27	1	-26	-65	-64
Minnesota	0	0	0	-73	-73
Cleveland	-41	0	-41	-75	-75

Data sources: ESPN and Baseball Information Solutions

Looking at all teams, we can see there was not a very wide range of runs saved by shifts.  The highest was +20 for Houston and the lowest was -14 for Florida.  So, shifting didn't have a dramatic effect on winning and losing.   A team needs to gain every little advantage they can though and this data gives us a more complete picture of team defense.

Tigers Benefit From Shifts, But Could Use Them More

Shortly after the Tigers hired manager Brad Ausmus last off-season, they also added defensive coordinator Matt Martin.  Martin's job was to make the Tigers defense more efficient through advanced metrics and scouting.  One of his tasks was to inform the Tigers on how to make the best use of the infield shifts which have become so common in the game.  As you have probably observed, the shifts are used almost exclusively against left-handed batters and typically the third baseman moves to the shortstop position while the shortstop moves to the right of second base.

Mark Simon of ESPN recently provided some data on shifts for 2014 (Table 1 below).  If you use twitter and have even a passing interest in advanced metrics, you should be following him (@msimonespn).  The data originated from Ben Jedlovec (@benjedlovec) and Scott Spratt (@pff_scottspratt) of Baseball Info  Solutions (BIS).

Table 1: Defensive Shifts in 2014

Team	Shifts on BIP	Run Saved	RS per 100 shifts
Houston	1341	27	2.01
Toronto	686	16	2.33
Boston	498	13	2.61
San Francisco	361	12	3.32
St. Louis	367	12	3.27
Texas	490	12	2.45
Chi Sox	534	11	2.06
Philadelphia	291	10	3.44
Oakland	488	10	2.05
Seattle	411	9	2.19
Detroit	205	8	3.90
Minnesota	478	7	1.46
Cleveland	516	7	1.36
Baltimore	705	7	0.99
San Diego	241	6	2.49
NY Mets	221	5	2.26
Pittsburgh	659	5	0.76
Cincinnati	212	4	1.89
Arizona	252	4	1.59
Milwaukee	576	4	0.69
Atlanta	213	3	1.41
Chi Cubs	316	3	0.95
LA Dodgers	208	2	0.96
LA Angels	357	2	0.56
Tampa Bay	824	2	0.24
Colorado	114	1	0.88
Washington	201	1	0.50
NY Yankees	780	0	0.00
Kansas City	543	0	0.00
Florida	208	-7	-3.37

Data sources: ESPN and Baseball Information Solutions

The table shows that the Tigers had the shift on for 204 balls in play (strikeouts and walks excluded) in 2014 and saved an estimated eight runs on these plays.  That translates to a major league leading 3.90 runs saved per 100 shifts on balls in play.  Thus, it seems as if the Tigers used this maneuver pretty efficiently.

As usual with new data, these results should be interpreted carefully.  The 204 shifts by the Tigers is a relatively small sample size that could have been influenced by random variation. Also, since most teams shifted more than the Tigers (the Tigers finished 28th out of 30 MLB teams), it is likely that Ausmus and company elected to shift only when there was a high probability of success.

The average team had shifts on 443 balls in play led by the Astros with 1,341. Other teams such as the Nationals and Marlins shifted about as infrequently as the Tigers with much less success. Thus, the Tigers efficiency should probably be regarded as somewhat of a positive outcome.

Almost every team saved runs via shifts with the exception of the Yankees (0 runs), Royals (0) and Marlins (cost themselves 7 runs).  Thus, frequent shifts seemed to be justified.  The leaders were the Astros (27 runs saved) and Blue Jays (16).  Of course, too much of a good thing is usually not such a good thing, so I think we might see the Astros make less use of the shift in the future.

Should the Tigers have shifted more?  All we can do is speculate, but since shifts have proven to be beneficial, it might have been better if the Tigers had been closer to league average of 443 shifts on ball in play.  This would have required them to more than double their number of shifts.  I don't know if they'll change that radically next year, but I suspect we'll see an increase.

Defense Could Cost Tigers In Post-Season

Earlier today, I picked the Tigers to win the World Series.  It was a homer pick, but the post-season is a crap shoot, so why not the Tigers?  The Bengals certainly have their strengths - hitting and starting pitching in particular - but they also have shortcomings.  The first one that comes to mind is their bullpen and perhaps the manager's usage of it, two topics that have been beaten to death recently. However, the bullpen might not be their biggest weakness.

The table below shows the estimated runs saved/cost by fielders on each of the ten playoff teams according to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).  The Tigers defense has cost them a whopping -64 runs compared to an average team which suggests that they could have won about six more games if they had just an average defense.  Only the Indians (-74) and Twins (-72) were worse.

The Baltimore Orioles - the Tigers first round playoff opponent - was 50 runs better than average and a stunning 114 runs better than the Tigers.  That is .70 runs per game which would translate to 3.5 runs in a five-game playoff series.  The Tigers really need to tighten their defense in this series because they can't afford to spot the Orioles three or four runs just with fielding.

If the Tigers get by the Orioles, they will still be at a big disadvantage defensively no matter who they face.  The closest team to them is the Angels with -15 DRS.  That is a 49 run difference or a third of a run per game.  The only other team that is below average is the Giants at -4.

Table: Defensive Runs Scored for Playoff Teams, 2014

Team	DRS
St. Louis	66
Baltimore	50
Kansas City	41
Pittsburgh	37
Oakland	33
Los Angeles (NL)	28
Washington	11
San Francisco	-4
Los Angeles (AL)	-15
Detroit	-64

Data source: Baseball-Reference.com

So, you'll probably spend the late innings fretting about the Tigers bullpen, but keep an eye on their fielding as well.  It might be the facet of the game most likely to derail their championship dreams.  

Playoff Predictions

There is no formula for predicting success in the playoffs.  Some will tell you that pitching and defense beats hitting in post-season, or that teams heavily reliant of home runs will struggle or that teams that finish strong will carry momentum into the playoffs.  A recent Grantland article shows that those and many other popular narratives are not supported by strong evidence.  In reality, there is no reliable way to predict the outcome of a short series, especially in the playoffs where all the teams are good and pretty evenly matched.

The playoffs are largely a crap shoot, but we all like to guess who will win, so here are my predictions:

AL Wildcard
Oakland over Kansas City

NL Wildcard
Pittsburgh over San Francisco

AL First Round
Detroit over Baltimore
Los Angeles over Oakland

NL First Round
St. Louis over Los Angeles,    
Washington over Pittsburgh

AL Championship
Detroit over Los Angeles
Washington over St. Louis

World Series
Detroit over Washington

Tiger Finally Clinch Division Title

Tigers starter David Price pitched 7 1/3 shutout innings in division-clincher
(Photo credit: FoxSports.com)

It was almost a foregone conclusion going into the season that the Tigers would win the American League Central division.  What nobody guessed was that it would take 162 games before they clinched it.  The Tigers finally secured their fourth consecutive division title today with a 3-0 shutout over the Twins in Comerica Park.  

Starting pitcher David Price was brilliant today in dueling Twins right hander Kyle Gibson into the eighth inning of a game that was reminiscent of the 1987 clincher versus the Blue Jays.   For those who are too young to remember, the Tigers beat Toronto 1-0 on the final game of the 1987 season to win the most thrilling pennant race life of my lifetime.  Left-hander Frank Tanana pitched a complete game shutout and outfielder Larry Herndon hit an early home run to provide the only offense.

Today, second baseman Ian Kinsler was Herndon putting the Tigers up 1-0 with a solo homer going in the third inning.  Price was Tanana keeping that slim lead intact into the top of the eighth inning.   He wasn't quite Tanana though.  In 2014, complete game shutouts are rare and even the durable Price was not going to get one today leaving after 112 pitches and one out in the eighth. It also didn't end 1-0 as the Tigers added two insurance runs in the bottom of the eighth.

The biggest fear of Tigers fans all year has been the bullpen blowing games late and no lead ever feels safe.  However, the much maligned Tigers bullpen duo of Joba Chamberlain and Joe Nathan closed this one out in surprisingly easy fashion retiring five batters in succession.  

The Tigers now face the Orioles in the first round of the playoffs starting on Thursday in Baltimore.

It's Like 1964 Again

Phillies outfielder Johnny Callison hit three-run homer to win 1964 all-star game 

(Photo credit: New York Daily News)

By most measures, 2014 has been a down year for offense in baseball.  Going into the final week of the season, Rockies first baseman Justin Morneau leads the National League with a .318 batting average.  The lowest batting average ever for an NL batting leader was Tony Gwynn's .313 mark in 1988.  If Orioles slugger Nelson Cruz stays at 39 home runs and nobody else has a big week, it would be the first time since 1982 that no major league hitter reached 40 home runs.  White Sox rookie sensation Jose Abreu's .978 OPS would  make him the lowest MLB OPS leader since Wade Boggs (.965) in 1988.  

Teams have scored only 4.08 runs per game this year.  That's down 13% compared to 2009 and 26% to 2000.  It's also the weakest offensive output since 4.12 in 1992 and 4.00 in 1981.  The .251 MLB batting average is the lowest since .244 in 1972, the last year before the designated hitter was added to the American League.  Home runs are being hit at a rate of 0.87 per game, the lowest since .72 in 1992.  

While 2014 is is one of the worst years for offense in recent decades, it is not unusual compared to the entire history of the game.  In fact, there have been 28 years since 1901 where runs were scored at a lower rate, Many of those years were within the Dead-Ball era from 1901-1919, but there have been other seasons of depressed offense including most of the 1960s decade culminating in 1968 when batters hit .237 and produced only 3.42 runs per game.  There were also several years in the 1970s and 1980s and even early 1990s which were comparable to 2014.   

One thing I like to do every year is to identify a past season which is most similar to the current season.  This season is actually not too far away from last year when teams scored 4.17 runs per game, although there were 9% more home runs in 2013.  It's also fairly similar to a few years - specifically 1988, 1989 and 1992 - during the period just before the so-called Steroid Era.  Runs were scored at about the same rate those years as this year, but there were more walks and fewer home runs.    

One year stands out as a remarkably close match to 2014.  In 1964, there were 4.04 runs per Game which is just 1% lower than this year.  Table 1 shows that the two years were within 2.5% in most offensive categories including batting average, home runs and walks.   There have been a lot more strikeouts this year.  In fact, there have been more strikeouts this year than any other season, but that's a topic for another day.

Table 1: Offensive Comparison of 1964 Versus 2014

Statistic	1964	2014	% Difference
Runs Per Game	4.04	4.08	1.0
Home Runs Per Game	0.85	0.87	2.4
Walks Per Game	2.96	2.90	-2.0
Batting Average	.250	.251	1.0
On-Base Percentage	.313	.314	0.3
Slugging Average	.378	.387	2.4
On-Base Plus Slugging	.690	.701	1.6
Weighted On-Base	.304	.310	2.0

Data source: Baseball-Reference.com

I'm too young to remember whether this year "feels like" 1964, but it's interesting to look back.  That year is probably most remembered as the season the Philadelphia Phillies managed by Gene Mauch blew a 6 1/2 game lead with less than two weeks to go.  They lost ten games in a row down the stretch and finished a game behind St. Louis.  The Cardinals went on to beat the Yankees in the World Series in seven games.  

Hall-of-Fame outfielder Roberto Clemente led the majors with a .339 batting average and Twins slugger Harmon Killebrew hit 49 home runs for the Twins, a pretty high total for that era.  The best hitter in the majors that year though was the legendary Mickey Mantle who batted .303 with 35 homers and a major league leading 1.015 OPS. 

The best all around player? Giants superstar Willie Mays had a WAR of 11.1, yet Cardinals third baseman Ken Boyer won the NL MVP with just 6.1 WAR.  You can imagine how that would have been received if it happened today.   

The Tigers finished 85-67 in fourth place 14 games behind the Yankees.  The most typical line-up included:

C. Bill Freehan

1B. Norm Cash

2B. Jerry Lumpe

SS. Dick McAuliffe

3B Don Wert

LF. Gates Brown

CF Bill Bruton

RF. Al Kaline.

Kaline led the team with a .851 OPS and 5.6 WAR.  Freehan batted .300 with a .812 OPS and 5.3 WAR.  McAuliffe also had a good season leading the team with 24 home runs.  The top pitcher was left hander Mickey Lolich who struck out 192 and compiled a 3.26 ERA in 232 innings.  Right hander Dave Wickersham posted a 3.44 ERA in 254 innings.  

So, that was 1964.  Fast foward fifty years and you would think not much has changed in the game.

Fan Scouting Report 2014

For the 12th year, Tom Tango is conducting his fan scouting report on fielding skills. The survey is a very valuable resource, so I'm encouraging all knowledgeable fans who watch a lot of Detroit Tigers games to participate.  Many readers of this blog have participated in the past and said it was fun and it only takes a few minutes.

The survey asks fans to rate the fielding skills of players on their favorite teams just based on observation. You will be asked not to use any stats at all and also not to vote based on what somebody else told you. Just use your own eyes as if you were a scout.  Past results were very interesting and informative, but a large sample size is needed in order for them to be useful again this year. Some of the results appear in the Bill James Handbook which comes out every November and also FanGraphs.com  So, I urge all of you to complete the ballot.

Do Big Innings Win Games?

Tigers manager Brad Ausmus recently claimed that most winning teams score more runs in one inning than losing teams do the entire game.  Long-time Detroit News writer Tom Gage wanted to know if this was true and asked his Twitter followers where one could find the answer.  There didn't seem to be an easy way to find it, so I went to the retrosheet.org play-by-play database to figure it out myself.

I took all 9,720 games from 2010-2013 and determined that the winning team scored more runs in one inning than the losing team scored the entire game 4,553 times (or 46%) of the games.  So, Ausmus was not quite correct, but he wasn't wrong in thinking that big innings have a substantial influence on the outcome of games,

Considering only the Tigers games during the same four-year period, a big inning produced enough runs for a victory 45% of the time.  Interestingly, it was 52% in 2013 and 50% so far this year. That is more than likely a small sample fluke, but big innings have had a slightly stronger impact than usual for the Tigers the last two years.

How Are The Tigers Not Beating The Royals?

At first glance, it looks like the Tigers should be running away from the Royals instead of chasing them. Detroit has a strong hitting team built around first baseman Miguel Cabrera, designated hitter Victor Martinez and the surprising J.D. Martinez.  Kansas City's only above average starter has been outfielder Alex Gordon. Both teams seem to have good starting rotations, but the Tigers starters are more dominant accumulating a lot more strikeouts and allowing fewer home runs.  Still, the Tigers trail the Royals by a half game in the AL Central Division

The Tigers lead the league with a .329 on-base percentage .424 slugging and .753 OPS.  That puts them at 73 batting runs or 7 wins above average.  Meanwhile, the Royals are ninth in the league with a .682 OPS which translates to 18 batting runs or 2 wins below average.  So, there are nine batting wins separating the Tigers and Royals.

The Tigers starting staff is second in the league with a 3.46 FIP while the Royals are ninth at 3.97.  Using the FanGraphs WAR statistic, the Tigers starting staff is five runs better than the Royals.  So, just looking at the two most influential components of the game - hitting and starting pitching - the Tigers are 14 wins better than the Royals.

If you've been following the Tigers all year though, you know their weaknesses.  First, their bullpen has struggled posting a 4.13 ERA which ranks 13th in the league.  In comparison, the Royals relievers have a 3.53 FIP.  Using the WAR statistic, the Royals bullpen is four wins better than the Tigers.

Another area where the Tigers have done poorly is fielding.  According to the Defensive Runs Saved statistic, the Tigers defensive has cost them 59 runs which is second worst in the majors.  The Royals, on the other hand, have saved their pitchers 32 runs.  That's an 89 run or nine-win difference between the two teams.

Finally, the Tigers base running other than speedy outfielder Rajai Davis and second baseman Ian Kinsler has been a problem.  They are 3 runs below average according to the FanGraphs Baserunning Runs statistic while the Royals stand at 9 runs above average.  So, the Royals are one win better than the Tigers in base running.

Combining relief pitching, fielding and base running, the Royals are 15 wins superior to the Tigers.  Thus, the Tigers 14-win advantage based on hitting and starting pitching is completely offset by the "smaller" facets of the game.

So, that's why we've got a pennant race rather than a run away.